Ross4356
22-05-2015, 11:20 AM
Qatar match could upset Scotland's World Cup ambitions
Mark Walker
Saturday 11 April 2015
Scottish Football Association chiefs may have scored a spectacular World Cup own goal by agreeing to play Qatar in a friendly.
Scotland will face the Gulf nation at Easter Road in June before they face Ireland in a crucial Euro 2016 encounter in Dublin.
But by facing Qatar, Scotland may have shot themselves in the foot when it comes to the World Cup 2018 qualifying draw in Russia in July.
Scotland are currently on the brink of securing the last place in Pot Two of seeds, which would be a huge boost for Gordon Strachan's side.
However, because of the complicated way FIFA's World Rankings work, by agreeing to face Qatar - a nation currently ranked 99th by world football's governing body, even a win against the oil-rich country could work against Scotland when it comes to Rankings points because of both their lowly position and being a member of the Asian Football Confederation, which isn't ranked as highly as UEFA nations.
And it would mean Scotland sliding into Pot Three for the July 25 draw, which will be held in Konstantinovsky Palace in St Petersburg.
If Scotland had decided not to take the fixture against Qatar - a country where an SFA delegation of chief executive Stewart Regan, president Campbell Ogilvie and vice-president Rod Petrie visited on a fact-finding mission in February - they would have known that a victory over Ireland in the Aviva Stadium would have guaranteed them a Pot Two place.
The rankings are based on the last four years' results, with results in the past 12 months counting for more than those in the preceding years and points are averaged out according to the number of matches played in a year.
It would mean that even a win over Qatar would affect Scotland's average points in the Rankings because of the relatively low points a win would collect. A draw or defeat to the World Cup 2022 hosts in Edinburgh would end all hopes of that Pot Two place.
Respected football statistical prediction site We Global Football summed up the SFA's decision to play the friendly against Qatar by commenting: "While Scotland has been doing OK in qualifying, they've completely screwed the pooch when it comes to scheduling.
"Arranging a friendly with Qatar will only hurt them further. They had a chance to get into Pot 2, but they've failed to do the things necessary to get there. Even still, if they win at Ireland and didn't play Qatar, they should have been able to get in."
FIFA will use their Rankings for July 2015 to decide seeds. Pots will be split into nine teams per pot, apart for smaller pots near the bottom end of the seeding. The SFA declined to comment on the matter last night.
Someone needs to be sacked for this
Mark Walker
Saturday 11 April 2015
Scottish Football Association chiefs may have scored a spectacular World Cup own goal by agreeing to play Qatar in a friendly.
Scotland will face the Gulf nation at Easter Road in June before they face Ireland in a crucial Euro 2016 encounter in Dublin.
But by facing Qatar, Scotland may have shot themselves in the foot when it comes to the World Cup 2018 qualifying draw in Russia in July.
Scotland are currently on the brink of securing the last place in Pot Two of seeds, which would be a huge boost for Gordon Strachan's side.
However, because of the complicated way FIFA's World Rankings work, by agreeing to face Qatar - a nation currently ranked 99th by world football's governing body, even a win against the oil-rich country could work against Scotland when it comes to Rankings points because of both their lowly position and being a member of the Asian Football Confederation, which isn't ranked as highly as UEFA nations.
And it would mean Scotland sliding into Pot Three for the July 25 draw, which will be held in Konstantinovsky Palace in St Petersburg.
If Scotland had decided not to take the fixture against Qatar - a country where an SFA delegation of chief executive Stewart Regan, president Campbell Ogilvie and vice-president Rod Petrie visited on a fact-finding mission in February - they would have known that a victory over Ireland in the Aviva Stadium would have guaranteed them a Pot Two place.
The rankings are based on the last four years' results, with results in the past 12 months counting for more than those in the preceding years and points are averaged out according to the number of matches played in a year.
It would mean that even a win over Qatar would affect Scotland's average points in the Rankings because of the relatively low points a win would collect. A draw or defeat to the World Cup 2022 hosts in Edinburgh would end all hopes of that Pot Two place.
Respected football statistical prediction site We Global Football summed up the SFA's decision to play the friendly against Qatar by commenting: "While Scotland has been doing OK in qualifying, they've completely screwed the pooch when it comes to scheduling.
"Arranging a friendly with Qatar will only hurt them further. They had a chance to get into Pot 2, but they've failed to do the things necessary to get there. Even still, if they win at Ireland and didn't play Qatar, they should have been able to get in."
FIFA will use their Rankings for July 2015 to decide seeds. Pots will be split into nine teams per pot, apart for smaller pots near the bottom end of the seeding. The SFA declined to comment on the matter last night.
Someone needs to be sacked for this