How quickly do we get the exit polls?

[Hibbyradge]

I'm in bed so I can get up to watch the results, but is it worth while waiting for the exit polls?

[Hibbyradge]

I'm waiting up anyway...

[JeMeSouviens]

Bang on 10pm. The last time was almost called exactly, only a few seats out. Trickier this time given the fragmentation of the vote in so many places.

[Sir David Gray]

Sky News exit poll;

Conservatives - 316
Labour - 239
SNP - 58
Lib Dems - 10
UKIP - 2

[lord bunberry]

Sky News exit poll;

Conservatives - 316
Labour - 239
SNP - 58
Lib Dems - 10
UKIP - 2
Wow

[Pretty Boy]

Looks like a Tory win but without a majority.

Labour lose seats and SNP could fall just shy of the clean sweep in Scotland.

[Haymaker]

Wow

Sky news.

[johnbc70]

SNP hurting Labour and giving the Tories the lead. We are on for another Tory/Lib Dem coalition.

[Pretty Boy]

SNP hurting Labour and giving the Tories the lead. We are on for another Tory/Lib Dem coalition.

Nonsense.

Even with 40 or 50 more seats in Scotland Labour would still be miles short of the Tories and nowhere near a majority.

[JeMeSouviens]

If Clegg wins Con/Lib coalition. If he doesn't, Tory minority.

:-(

[Sir David Gray]

Sky news.

I saw it reported first on Sky News but the BBC's reporting the same result.

It appears to be a broadcasters poll.

[Pretty Boy]

I saw it reported first on Sky News but the BBC's reporting the same result.

It appears to be a broadcasters poll.

Ipsos Mori for Sky, BBC and 1 other who I can't remember I believe.

[Hibrandenburg]

If the SNP have really won 58 out of 59 possible seats in Scotland and the Tories still get in then I give up all hope of Scotland ever having a voice in the UK.

[JeMeSouviens]

Ipsos Mori for Sky, BBC and 1 other who I can't remember I believe.

ITV. It's a huge expensive poll so they share the cost.

[Haymaker]

I saw it reported first on Sky News but the BBC's reporting the same result.

It appears to be a broadcasters poll.

So it does. I wouldnt trust SKY as far as I could throw them but fair play

[God Petrie]

If the SNP have really won 58 out of 59 possible seats in Scotland and the Tories still get in then I give up all hope of Scotland ever having a voice in the UK.

Personally as a raving nationalist lunatic, that exit poll would be perfect.

[lord bunberry]

SNP hurting Labour and giving the Tories the lead. We are on for another Tory/Lib Dem coalition.

Labour hurting themselves. Why is it always the SNP that hurt labour and help the Tories? Where are all the people who voted labour in 97? Are they not hurting labour and helping the Tories? I'm fed up being told that by not voting labour I'm helping the Tories, I'm not I'm voting for who I think will best serve me and my country. If labour can't gain enough votes whilst child poverty is at an all time high and people are using food banks to survive then they've only got themselves to blame.

[God Petrie]

SNP votes don't matter if labour have totally chucked it in engerland as the exits suggest.

[CropleyWasGod]

If Clegg wins Con/Lib coalition. If he doesn't, Tory minority.

:-(

Throw in UKIP, and the DUP, and they might just scrape it.

[Pretty Boy]

SNP votes don't matter if labour have totally chucked it in engerland as the exits suggest.

Spot on.

Don't expect Murphy, Dugale, Curran etc to admit that though.

[Pretty Boy]

Throw in UKIP, and the DUP, and they might just scrape it.

I wonder if UKIP will use their seats, if they get 2, as bait for an EU referendum?

'We'll take the Tory whip if we get our day in the sun'.

[CropleyWasGod]

I wonder if UKIP will use their seats, if they get 2, as bait for an EU referendum?

'We'll take the Tory whip if we get our day in the sun'.

:agree:

.... and "they" worried about the SNP tail wagging the UK dug?

[Haymaker]

Apparently the exit polls are based on 22,000 voters?

[johnbc70]

I wonder if UKIP will use their seats, if they get 2, as bait for an EU referendum?

'We'll take the Tory whip if we get our day in the sun'.

Have the Tories not promised a referendum by 2017 anyway.

[Beefster]

If the exit polls are anywhere near accurate, there's going to be a bloodbath in the UK and Scottish Labour Parties.

[God Petrie]

Apparently the exit polls are based on 22,000 voters?

Much wider than normal polls which are only around 2,000 usually I think

[Hibby Bairn]

No chance Tories getting 316.

[Colr]

Have the Tories not promised a referendum by 2017 anyway.

Yup. And the terms have been discussed with the EU, apparently. EU will give more autonomy so that Cameron and whowever is leading Labour and LibDem will all campaign for vote to stay in.

We'll have to wait and see.

[judas]

Personally as a raving nationalist lunatic, that exit poll would be perfect.

Yup. This would be a good result for the independence movement.

Irrefutable proof that Scotland is impotent at UK level. Even if all the predicted seats of snp switched to labour now it would have made sod all difference.

Salmond was right. Scotlands course is fairly certain.

[RyeSloan]

Have the Tories not promised a referendum by 2017 anyway.

But Cameron really doesn't want one...I reckon he reckoned it could be bargained away in a coalition agreement.

I dint agree with an earlier poster that Scotland would have no voice..58 SNP in Westminster would be a significant voice in the UK pArliament against any coalition with a wafer thin majority. Scotland voted to stay in the union then has voted overwhelming for the party that it thinks will best serve it in that and as it turns out will have a very effective block vote that would allow any government proposal to sail through or force it into a nail biting vote...should be pretty interesting to see how scenario would pan out :-)

[OsloHibs]

Who the hell are these people who represent the answer from these random polls?

[Pretty Boy]

Sturgeon tweeting she thinks 58 seats is unlikely although expects a good night.

[Pretty Boy]

Who the hell are these people who represent the answer from these random polls?

I'm one.

I regularly take part in Yougov polls and was invited to take part in an online exit poll.

[Hibbyradge]

SNP hurting Labour and giving the Tories the lead. We are on for another Tory/Lib Dem coalition.

Nonsense.

[Pretty Boy]

Nonsense.

Absolutely.

239 + 58 doesn't equal 326. It doesn't even equal 316.

Labour have lost this across the board not just in Scotland.

[Hibby Bairn]

But Cameron really doesn't want one...I reckon he reckoned it could be bargained away in a coalition agreement.

I dint agree with an earlier poster that Scotland would have no voice..58 SNP in Westminster would be a significant voice in the UK pArliament against any coalition with a wafer thin majority. Scotland voted to stay in the union then has voted overwhelming for the party that it thinks will best serve it in that and as it turns out will have a very effective block vote that would allow any government proposal to sail through or force it into a nail biting vote...should be pretty interesting to see how scenario would pan out :-)

Share of vote for SNP important to see move from referendum. I think they would need to see it move towards 60% to lay any short term claims for another go at independence.

[Hiber-nation]

I'm one.

I regularly take part in Yougov polls and was invited to take part in an online exit poll.

Me too!

[Beefster]

Share of vote for SNP important to see move from referendum. I think they would need to see it move towards 60% to lay any short term claims for another go at independence.

To be fair, if the UK votes to leave the EU, I think that would be enough for another referendum. I'll campaign and vote for Scottish independence myself if it happens.

[Colr]

But Cameron really doesn't want one...I reckon he reckoned it could be bargained away in a coalition agreement.

I dint agree with an earlier poster that Scotland would have no voice..58 SNP in Westminster would be a significant voice in the UK pArliament against any coalition with a wafer thin majority. Scotland voted to stay in the union then has voted overwhelming for the party that it thinks will best serve it in that and as it turns out will have a very effective block vote that would allow any government proposal to sail through or force it into a nail biting vote...should be pretty interesting to see how scenario would pan out :-)

A voice in parliament but on the exit poll no voice in government and no ministers in government unlike under Labour.

From an English perspective, thats good because then Scottish MPs will not be determining policy that only affects England so no need to legislate on the subject.

I think the result is going to be a lot closer than the exit poll suggests, though.

[ballengeich]

I'm one.

I regularly take part in Yougov polls and was invited to take part in an online exit poll.

If Yougov polls rely on people who regularly take part then they're getting the views of people who're interested in politics so may not be representative of the population in general. On that basis, I expect Yougov to be less accurate than the tv companies' poll.

[Beefster]

If Yougov polls rely on people who regularly take part then they're getting the views of people who're interested in politics so may not be representative of the population in general. On that basis, I expect Yougov to be less accurate than the tv companies' poll.

The vast majority of YouGov polls are nothing to do with politics.

[(((Fergus)))]

If the SNP have really won 58 out of 59 possible seats in Scotland and the Tories still get in then I give up all hope of Scotland ever having a voice in the UK.

The SNP would be the third largest party in Westminster with about 9% of the seats, representing approx. 9% of the UK population. However they were not elected by that 9% of the UK population. The only Scots denied a voice will be those who did not vote SNP. FPTP has to go.

[ballengeich]

The vast majority of YouGov polls are nothing to do with politics.

That doesn't invalidate my point that their population is unlikely to be a random sample if they rely on regulars.

[JeMeSouviens]

To be fair, if the UK votes to leave the EU, I think that would be enough for another referendum. I'll campaign and vote for Scottish independence myself if it happens.

Ouch! You made me fall off my sofa. :-(

[Hiber-nation]

To be fair, if the UK votes to leave the EU, I think that would be enough for another referendum. I'll campaign and vote for Scottish independence myself if it happens.

Admins, stick that post in the archives :wink:

[Colr]

Absolutely.

239 + 58 doesn't equal 326. It doesn't even equal 316.

Labour have lost this across the board not just in Scotland.

Looks like the LibDem vote collapsing. The winner will be the party that gains most from that once UKIP have had their share. UKIP did rather well in Sunderland (again).