How close is it in your constituency?

[Hibbyradge]

https://election.38degrees.org.uk/constituencies


In Edinburgh West the race between Scottish National Party, Labour and Conservative is too close to call.
Edinburgh West

Latest predictions (electionforecast.co.uk)

SNP 34%

Labour 22%

Tory 20%

Lib Dem 20%

Green 3%

UKIP 1%

[lord bunberry]

I'm Edinburgh East
SNP 50%
Labour 28%
Tories 10%
Green 5%
Lib Dems 5%
Others 1%

[EH6 Hibby]

Edinburgh North and Leith

SNP - 41%

Labour 29%

Conservative - 15%

Lib Dems - 8%

Green - 6%

UKIP - 1%

[Geo_1875]

https://election.38degrees.org.uk/constituencies


In Edinburgh West the race between Scottish National Party, Labour and Conservative is too close to call.
Edinburgh West

Latest predictions (electionforecast.co.uk)

SNP 34%

Labour 22%

Tory 20%

Lib Dem 20%

Green 3%

UKIP 1%

I'm Edinburgh West as well and I'll be glad to see the back of Crockart. A pompous prick who should get back to his day job.

[stoneyburn hibs]

Livingston: SNP should hose it at 51%

[stoneyburn hibs]

The bookies have a price of just 11/10 for 41-50 seats for the SNP, and 10/11 for more than 50 seats. Wow !

[Hibbyradge]

The bookies have a price of just 11/10 for 41-50 seats for the SNP, and 10/11 for more than 50 seats. Wow !

That really is a wow!

[Pretty Boy]

Edinburgh North and Leith

SNP - 41%

Labour 29%

Conservative - 15%

Lib Dems - 8%

Green - 6%

UKIP - 1%

My constituency as well.

Massive swing considering the SNP only managed a very distant 4th last time.

Labour polled 37.5% of the vote last time and the Lib Dems just under 34%. Looks like relatively speaking, assuming the poll is accurate, the Labour vote has held up not too badly (all things considered) and the Lib Dem vote has totally collapsed. Tory vote flatlining as it was 14.9% last time and holding around that mark in the polls. Greens standing still as well.

[CropleyWasGod]

https://election.38degrees.org.uk/constituencies


In Edinburgh West the race between Scottish National Party, Labour and Conservative is too close to call.
Edinburgh West

Latest predictions (electionforecast.co.uk)

SNP 34%

Labour 22%

Tory 20%

Lib Dem 20%

Green 3%

UKIP 1%
How's that too close to call? :)

[Lucius Apuleius]

61% SNP in Falkirk

[Scottie]

The bookies have a price of just 11/10 for 41-50 seats for the SNP, and 10/11 for more than 50 seats. Wow !
:aok: I hope the opinion polls are shown to be a true reflection on Friday morning.

They wanted Scotland's voice heard after the Indy vote well going by the latest polls Scotland's voice is going to be heard LOUD AND CLEAR. :thumbsup:

[stoneyburn hibs]

:aok: I hope the opinion polls are shown to be a true reflection on Friday morning.

They wanted Scotland's voice heard after the Indy vote well going by the latest polls Scotland's voice is going to be heard LOUD AND CLEAR. :thumbsup:

I'm convinced that the opinion polls are about right, and it's not often that the bookies are wrong.
Rewind back to September, I was hoping that all of the opinion polls were wrong but they were pretty much bang on the money.
:agree: Loud and clear.

[Haymaker]

last election my area had a 16,800+ majority for the Tories.

[Pete]

Dunfermline and West Fife has traditionally been Labour with Lib Dems up their backside, winning a by-election in 2006.

The forecast says that Labour will hold (37%) but the SNP (31%) will replace the Lib Dems (22%) as the party running them close.

In 2010 it was Labour at 46%, followed by the Lib Dems on 35% then the SNP on 10%.

[judas]

Edinburgh South. Forget the polls. SNP boy won't win here (sadly).

[Stranraer]

My seat is held by Labour but has been a Tory target seat since 2005.

Now the SNP are top, Tories second and Labour third - there is 4 points between Richard Arkless (SNP) and Finlay Carson (Tory)

[Zondervan]

Edinburgh South. Forget the polls. SNP boy won't win here (sadly).

I think the SNP have a great chance, and wouldn't rule them out.

They romped the equivalent seat in that Scottish Parliament, I think?

[Hibernia&Alba]

So much tactical voting going on in many constituencies, seemingly based upon ones position on the SNP: either to get them in or keep them out.

Tory voters who will vote Labour, and Labour/Lib Dem/Green voters switching to SNP

[cabbageandribs1875]

Bathgate is under Linlithgow and East Falkirk

i'l be quite surprised if connarty doesn't hold on for labour

48% SNP

33% Labour

12% conservatives

4% Liberal democrats

2% UkIP

2% others


mon Martyn Day for the nats


the land of my Birth(north Leith) shall no doubt continue to be labour again, i'm trying to remember if it was ever anything but labour(sigh)

[overdrive]

Bathgate is under Linlithgow and East Falkirk

i'l be quite surprised if connarty doesn't hold on for labour

48% SNP

33% Labour

12% conservatives

4% Liberal democrats

2% UkIP

2% others


mon Martyn Day for the nats


the land of my Birth(north Leith) shall no doubt continue to be labour again, i'm trying to remember if it was ever anything but labour(sigh)

Unfortunately it looks like Edinburgh North and Leith will go to the SNP.

[Green Man]

Of all the Scottish seats I thought mine (Edinburgh North & Leith) was one of the most likely Labour holds as Mark Lazarowicz is a popular man. The bookies did have Labour as favourite but I noticed this week the SNP are now odds on. If window posters are anything to go by then the SNP have it sewn up.

[overdrive]

Of all the Scottish seats I thought mine (Edinburgh North & Leith) was one of the most likely Labour holds as Mark Lazarowicz is a popular man. The bookies did have Labour as favourite but I noticed this week the SNP are now odds on. If window posters are anything to go by then the SNP have it sewn up.

If window posters were anything to go by we'd be on the way to independence.

Somebody round the corner from me has turned his windows, garden and the communal entrance to his stair into a creepy shrine to Deirdre Brock and the SNP.

[Hibernia&Alba]

If window posters were anything to go by we'd be on the way to independence.

Somebody round the corner from me has turned his windows, garden and the communal entrance to his stair into a creepy shrine to Deirdre Brock and the SNP.

Obviously an undecided :-D

[Sir David Gray]

Falkirk

61% - SNP
25% - Labour
10% - Conservatives
3% - Liberal Democrats
1% - UKIP

I would be stunned if the SNP won by that sort of margin.

[Green Man]

If window posters were anything to go by we'd be on the way to independence.

Somebody round the corner from me has turned his windows, garden and the communal entrance to his stair into a creepy shrine to Deirdre Brock and the SNP.
Yeah, I don't put a lot of faith in posters or opinion polls. I do take notice of the bookies odds though.

[SHODAN]

Falkirk:

SNP 61%
Labour 25%
Conservative 10%
Liberal Democrat 3%
UKIP 1%

Looks like an extremely comfortable SNP win over here, despite David Coburn's boasts that he'd win or come close to winning the seat. Nae luck.

[Hannah_hfc]

Apparently to close to call between Labour and SNP in my local, East Renfrewshire, meaning Murphy might still keep his seat. Again.... 👎

[Moulin Yarns]

Perth and North Perthshire

SNP 56%
Con 24%
Lab 12%
Lib/Dem 4%
Green 2%
Ukip 1%
Others 2%

[RyeSloan]

Amazing, probably unheard of forecast swings in so many Scottish seats....the SNP must be absolutely laughing, esp. When the star of the show Sturgeon is not even on a single ballot paper! Truly a unique election in that sense surely.

[Off the bar]

Hackney north and Stoke Newington

Labour 62%

Tory 14%

Green 10%

lib dem 9%

Ukip 2%

Others 2%

So apathetic about this one, really struggling to find a reason not to spoil the ballot paper.

[lucky]

In Livingston the SNP are strong favourites as they are across most of the country. I think whilst it will be a great day for them I doubt they will get more than 43 seats. 13 to Labour, 2 Lib Dems and 1 Tory is my predication for Scotland. Now I'm off out to try and stop the Nats in Livingston. VOTE LABOUR

[Cabbage East]

No danger will Labour get 13 seats.

[ronaldo7]

East Lothian has been Labour for 41 years. It's going to be a hard fight to get George Kerevan returned here imo.

At the hustings I attended last Wednesday, the Tories said they'd be voting for the Labour candidate to keep the SNP out.

We'll keep the fight going to the end today. I'm on Polling Station duty from 11 - 1 and then 5 - 7.

Our count should be concluded by around 3am so it's a long day.

Enjoy it folks, :aok:

My predictions are SNP 39 Labour 14 Lib Dems 5 Tories 1

Hope I'm wrong and the bookies are right again:aok:

[Hibbyradge]

East Lothian has been Labour for 41 years. It's going to be a hard fight to get George Kerevan returned here imo.

At the hustings I attended last Wednesday, the Tories said they'd be voting for the Labour candidate to keep the SNP out.

We'll keep the fight going to the end today. I'm on Polling Station duty from 11 - 1 and then 5 - 7.

Our count should be concluded by around 3am so it's a long day.

Enjoy it folks, :aok:

My predictions are SNP 39 Labour 14 Lib Dems 5 Tories 1

Hope I'm wrong and the bookies are right again:aok:

That would be an amazing result.

It shows you how far the SNP comes when people are disappointed because they might only win 6 and a half times their current number of MPs!

[DaveF]

In Livingston the SNP are strong favourites as they are across most of the country. I think whilst it will be a great day for them I doubt they will get more than 43 seats. 13 to Labour, 2 Lib Dems and 1 Tory is my predication for Scotland. Now I'm off out to try and stop the Nats in Livingston. VOTE LABOUR

Good luck with that :greengrin 2 for the SNP from this Mid Calder house.

Overall, if the SNP get 30+ seats that would be an incredible result, given the proposed tactical voting employed by the other parties.

[Jay]

Good luck with that :greengrin 2 for the SNP from this Mid Calder house.

Overall, if the SNP get 30+ seats that would be an incredible result, given the proposed tactical voting employed by the other parties.

4 in this one :)

[ronaldo7]

That would be an amazing result.

It shows you how far the SNP comes when people are disappointed because they might only win 6 and a half times their current number of MPs!

I'm feeling optimistic today:greengrin

Anything above 30 is magnificent in my book.:aok:

[Hibby Bairn]

Edinburgh West. Used to be Tory then Lib Dem but SNP won at last Scottish Parl election I think.

There are 3 people in my house who have never voted SNP before and two have flitted between parties. One is a first time voter.

All 3 are voting SNP today.

Reason - "they seem to be the only ones who have any interest in what is happening in Scotland".

[Hibbyradge]

Edinburgh West. Used to be Tory then Lib Dem but SNP won at last Scottish Parl election I think.

There are 3 people in my house who have never voted SNP before and two have flitted between parties. One is a first time voter.

All 3 are voting SNP today.

Reason - "they seem to be the only ones who have any interest in what is happening in Scotland".

You'll have to change your username! :wink:

[heretoday]

If window posters were anything to go by we'd be on the way to independence.

Somebody round the corner from me has turned his windows, garden and the communal entrance to his stair into a creepy shrine to Deirdre Brock and the SNP.

How do the other people in the stair feel about that? Big bloke is he?

[judas]

I think the SNP have a great chance, and wouldn't rule them out.

They romped the equivalent seat in that Scottish Parliament, I think?

I hope so, but last time labour got over 17000 votes, the SNP got less than 4000. Indeed, the Tories go almost 10000.

I think an SNP win, looking at election record statistics, is highly unlikely.

[Sir David Gray]

Falkirk

61% - SNP
25% - Labour
10% - Conservatives
3% - Liberal Democrats
1% - UKIP

I would be stunned if the SNP won by that sort of margin.

This ended up being pretty accurate in the end, considering the actual result was;

58% - SNP (3% less than predicted)
25% - Labour (spot on)
12% - Conservatives (2% more than predicted)
3% - UKIP (2% more than predicted)
2% - Liberal Democrats (1% less than predicted)

Pretty amazing how accurate it was actually.

How did the other seats compare?

[Pete]

The forecast says that Labour will hold (37%) but the SNP (31%) will replace the Lib Dems (22%) as the party running them close.

In 2010 it was Labour at 46%, followed by the Lib Dems on 35% then the SNP on 10%.

Dunfermline and West Fife 2015

SNP Douglas Chapman 28,096 50.3% +39.6%

Labour Thomas Docherty 17,744 31.7% -14.5%

Conservative James Adam Reekie 6,623 11% +5.1%

Liberal Democrat Gillian Cole-Hamilton 2,232 4.0% -31.1%



Utter lib dem collapse.

[Moulin Yarns]

This ended up being pretty accurate in the end, considering the actual result was;

58% - SNP (3% less than predicted)
25% - Labour (spot on)
12% - Conservatives (2% more than predicted)
3% - UKIP (2% more than predicted)
2% - Liberal Democrats (1% less than predicted)

Pretty amazing how accurate it was actually.

How did the other seats compare?


Perth and North Perthshire

SNP 56% - (50.5% - 3% less than predicted)
Con 24% - (32.7% more)
Lab 12% - (8.1% )
Lib/Dem 4% (3.8%)
Green 2% - (2.1% WAAAAY More than predicted :wink:)
Ukip 1% - (2% :rolleyes:)
Others 2% - (0.7% nice guy with a huge family obviously)

Tactical voting took votes away from Labour and Lib dems but was nowhere near enough as the Conservative vote was up 2.2% while the SNP was up 10.9% on 2010.

[Colr]

(0.7% nice guy with a huge family obviously)

Tactical voting took votes away from Labour and Lib dems but was nowhere near enough as the Conservative vote was up 2.2% while the SNP was up 10.9% on 2010.

Conservative came very close in Roxburghshire.

With the SNP veering left to wipe out Labour they have an opportunity to pull back centre and right opinion but they need to go back to being a separate Scottish party which would them form an alliance with a rUK Conservative government after negotiation on its key demands. Actually, they should have done this a couple of decades ago.

[Lucius Apuleius]

This ended up being pretty accurate in the end, considering the actual result was;

58% - SNP (3% less than predicted)
25% - Labour (spot on)
12% - Conservatives (2% more than predicted)
3% - UKIP (2% more than predicted)
2% - Liberal Democrats (1% less than predicted)

Pretty amazing how accurate it was actually.

How did the other seats compare?

Excellent result Trig. Surprised at Connarty losing in East to be honest but thought Johnny McNally would do it in the West due to the previous asshole. One big problem though. Now my hair has started growing in again, who the hell is going to cut my hair when Johnny is at Westminster?:greengrin

[Haymaker]

Just found out mine:

Cons 32,211 (plus 0.7
UKIP 9,553 (plus 10%)
Labour 6,627
Lib Dem 5,186 (loss of 16%)

Cons hold as always with a 22,658 majority.

[Keith_M]

.....

With the SNP veering left to wipe out Labour they have an opportunity to pull back centre and right opinion but they need to go back to being a separate Scottish party which would them form an alliance with a rUK Conservative government after negotiation on its key demands. Actually, they should have done this a couple of decades ago.


In Germany, the CDU and CSU have a similar arrangement.

The CDU are basically Germany's Conservative Party and the CSU are the equivalent in Bavaria, but they work together on most things.