Greek election

[HappyAsHellas]

Syriza party leader Alex Tsipras has said tonight that "the troika is a thing of the past". I know his manifesto was quite clear on telling the troika what they could do, but wonder if the harsh reality of the situation might make him regret these words. If the EU concede to his demands then I could see Ireland, Spain, Portugal etc all forming a queue to knock at their door.
Could be a bit of a difference between posturing and actually being in power, and who with. Worryingly, Golden Dawn are running in third place at the moment, but it is a distant third.

[ronaldo7]

Syriza party leader Alex Tsipras has said tonight that "the troika is a thing of the past". I know his manifesto was quite clear on telling the troika what they could do, but wonder if the harsh reality of the situation might make him regret these words. If the EU concede to his demands then I could see Ireland, Spain, Portugal etc all forming a queue to knock at their door.
Could be a bit of a difference between posturing and actually being in power, and who with. Worryingly, Golden Dawn are running in third place at the moment, but it is a distant third.

Quoted in the news.
With Syriza falling just short of an outright majority, To Potami, the centre-left party could be the kingmakers in the new parliament. It is projected to secure 16 seats. Its leader Stavros Theodorakis has not ruled out a deal with Syriza. “It’s too early for such details,” he reported to have said.

The end of February will be an interesting time with the EU bail out programme expiring.

[lucky]

Great result for the people of Greece, it's time that people were put before austerity. The EU and all their bankers are quite rightly getting told enough is enough. Delighted for the Greeks, can you imagine if the UK Labour Party returned to it socialist roots and put people before business we could see real change in our country.

[steakbake]

Great result for the people of Greece, it's time that people were put before austerity. The EU and all their bankers are quite rightly getting told enough is enough. Delighted for the Greeks, can you imagine if the UK Labour Party returned to it socialist roots and put people before business we could see real change in our country.

Agree with all of that. Sadly, I doubt any of the mainstream parties would ever dream of worrying their brothers in the City. Darling said himself during the referendum that people just have to look to the markets to see what the right decision is.

If the Greens can get their act together, worry Labour and persuade them that a left alternative is what people might get behind then we may see change. As it is, at UK level at least, any party is too married to the interests and voice of the right and all have overlapping perspectives. The Greens is the only way to go for a radical left alternative. Compare Daniel Hannan to the likes of Ken Clarke, dare I say Jim Murphy to Dennis Skinner. Even Fergus Ewing to Angela Constance. The interests of the right and left are covered in seemingly different parties but they are all the same. If Miliband was a proper leader with actual conviction in his beliefs, he'd not be worried about the banks or the corporate gamblers.

All of which proves that politics and elections in this country will only ever be conducted to a satisfactory outcome that doesn't rock the boat of an established and constant order. The fiddler might be different but it's the same tune.

[hibsbollah]

It's good news for the Greeks, bad news for 'one size fits all' capitalism.

Amongst all the predictable tut-tutting from the media, politicians and commentators, and the warnings from Germany, its worth remembering that Germany benefited from getting its debts restructured, twice, both before and after ww2, and it wouldn't have been the economic powerhouse it is now without these, essentially political, decisions. (I'm listening to the rise and fall of the third reich at the moment so am getting a different perspective on things!)

Reading the papers today youd think the Greek voters had done something illegal by rejecting austerity. Debt isnt an absolute. Its controlled by political decisions about how much you charge for the service.

[lord bunberry]

I'm absolutely delighted for te Greeks. I hate it when I watch the news and hear other European politicians demanding the Greeks to continue with austerity as if it's a painless solution. All these people do is talk about numbers, while the people who are the innocent party in all this starve, lose their jobs and can't afford medical treatment. The EU has failed miserably on this front, you can't have it both ways, either they are a union and the richer countries help the poorer countries(as long as the countries in trouble are trying to get their houses in order) or they're not a union, so can't impose such draconian punishments on member states.

[HappyAsHellas]

It really all depends on who will work with Syriza now, as even with the extra 50 seats they get for winning, they still don't have an outright majority. If they can't form a government in the next few days then ND get a chance to and then GD. If no one gets it right then it's back to another election as in 2012. It will be interesting to see if Greece can perhaps do an Iceland, putting people first ahead of the plutocracy we seem to live in nowadays.

[lapsedhibee]

Reading the papers today youd think the Greek voters had done something illegal by rejecting austerity. Debt isnt an absolute. Its controlled by political decisions about how much you charge for the service.

What, The Poppy Thieves maybe, deep down, didn't really owe the government, the council and their 43857024424 listed creditors any money? :dunno:

[RyeSloan]

Greece needs to leave the Euro...it's really that simple.

However the powers that be will do all they can to keep the Euro together...Germany in particular will use its power and influence to fight to the last to protect the Euro. No surprise of course that the main (only?) beneficiary of the Euro has been Germany...

[Pretty Boy]

It really all depends on who will work with Syriza now, as even with the extra 50 seats they get for winning, they still don't have an outright majority. If they can't form a government in the next few days then ND get a chance to and then GD. If no one gets it right then it's back to another election as in 2012. It will be interesting to see if Greece can perhaps do an Iceland, putting people first ahead of the plutocracy we seem to live in nowadays.

Coalition with the right wing Independent Greece party confirmed.

[ballengeich]

Even if Greece is granted some level of debt write-off, how do Syriza plan to implement an anti-austerity plan? I take it this means greatly increased government spending. They're not going to be able to fund it by borrowing so have they proposed substantial tax increases? From what I've read, one of the country's problems is an exceptionally inefficient revenue collection system, and that would take some time to correct.

Can someone who knows more about them than I do explain whether they have a coherent economic plan, or are just appealing to people's hopes and fantasies.

[lord bunberry]

Even if Greece is granted some level of debt write-off, how do Syriza plan to implement an anti-austerity plan? I take it this means greatly increased government spending. They're not going to be able to fund it by borrowing so have they proposed substantial tax increases? From what I've read, one of the country's problems is an exceptionally inefficient revenue collection system, and that would take some time to correct.

Can someone who knows more about them than I do explain whether they have a coherent economic plan, or are just appealing to people's hopes and fantasies.
If they stop paying money to the EU that will give them more money to spend, as a left wing party i would also imagine that they will increase tax for the richest people in Greece. I read a while ago that the richest people in Greece dont pay any tax at all, so i would imagine that that would be something that they would be looking to address.

[Hibrandenburg]

No surprise of course that the main (only?) beneficiary of the Euro has been Germany...

The way you say that makes it sound almost like a bad thing :greengrin

[HappyAsHellas]

Non payment of taxes in Greece is well documented and Syriza have promised to come down hard on this, which if they could manage to collect taxes properly would certainly fund some of their plans. How they will pay to re employ sacked workers and reinstate pensions to their previous unsustainable levels is anyone's guess. The debt write down is something they have to pursue as they needed 240 billion to get bailed out, and thanks to austerity and massive job losses now only owe around 315 billion.

[RyeSloan]

The way you say that makes it sound almost like a bad thing :greengrin

:-)

[hibsbollah]

What, The Poppy Thieves maybe, deep down, didn't really owe the government, the council and their 43857024424 listed creditors any money? :dunno:

Yes they did, but im a Grecophile and a yamophobe and am therefore biased about who is allowed to get into debt and who isnt :greengrin

[hibsbollah]

Even if Greece is granted some level of debt write-off, how do Syriza plan to implement an anti-austerity plan? I take it this means greatly increased government spending. They're not going to be able to fund it by borrowing so have they proposed substantial tax increases? From what I've read, one of the country's problems is an exceptionally inefficient revenue collection system, and that would take some time to correct.

Can someone who knows more about them than I do explain whether they have a coherent economic plan, or are just appealing to people's hopes and fantasies.

Greek debt is 175% of GDP or £180million. So if Germany sanctions a write off, a lot of the requirement for extra cuts and higher taxes will disappear as the debt repayment and servicing of that debt disappears. But since the coalition now includes a right wing anti Brussels partner id imagine future fiscal policy will be subject to a lot of furious negotiation.

[Hibrandenburg]

http://newsthump.com/2015/01/26/greeks-vote-for-the-germans-to-pay-for-everything/

Sounds about right! :wink:

[hibsbollah]

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/01/decision-them-ed-milibands-notably-cautious-reaction-syrizas-win

Inspiring stuff from Miliband.

[PeeJay]

Greek debt is 175% of GDP or £180million. So if Germany sanctions a write off, a lot of the requirement for extra cuts and higher taxes will disappear as the debt repayment and servicing of that debt disappears. But since the coalition now includes a right wing anti Brussels partner id imagine future fiscal policy will be subject to a lot of furious negotiation.

I'm all for Germany "permitting" a write-off/haircut as you suggest, if it is ONLY 180 MILLION GBP, but unfortunately it's not: it's a wee bit more than that: 188 BILLION GBP ... and counting ...

[Kato]

can you imagine if the UK Labour Party returned to it socialist roots and put people before business.


Nup, canny imagine that.

[RyeSloan]

Great result for the people of Greece, it's time that people were put before austerity. The EU and all their bankers are quite rightly getting told enough is enough. Delighted for the Greeks, can you imagine if the UK Labour Party returned to it socialist roots and put people before business we could see real change in our country.

'People before business'

Not being funny but what exactly does that mean?

[lord bunberry]

'People before business'

Not being funny but what exactly does that mean?

I would hazard a guess that it means governments make decisions that will benefit the population not the stock exchange. What benefit does austerity have for the poor?

[RyeSloan]

I would hazard a guess that it means governments make decisions that will benefit the population not the stock exchange. What benefit does austerity have for the poor?

That's not much clearer to be honest!

I see the government spending hundreds of billions of pounds each and every year on things like the benefits bill (incl old age pensions) and the NHS...does none of that benefit the poor?

Surely a government that balances the books and reduces it's massive interest bill (£50bn or so?) would be able to spend more on such things? As it is the government is still increasing the debt load so if we do have austerity it's a bit of a strange description for a nation that's still spending more than what it receives.

The money needs to come from somewhere though so I am serious when I ask Lucky the question...no doubting the intention of his statement I'm just unclear as to what it actually means in practice.

OK off topic a touch I know but it is relevant as Greece had just achieved a primary surplus...that seems at risk now as the new party has promised all sorts of increases in public spending that would appear to be completely unaffordable.

But don't get me wrong, I think it's criminal what's happened to Greece all to protect a single currency that benefits few.

[HappyAsHellas]

Reported today that one of Syriza's first laws will be to raise the minimum wage to 750 Euros a month. They are also trying to make it easier for people to pay their tax bills (70 billion overdue) which the troika said no to, when Samaris attempted when in power. No sign of them cutting defence spending which is a hell of a lot for a country of 11 million.
Turn out for this election was pretty low and when the third biggest party's leaders are in jail and didn't even have a campaign then all is not as rosy as some observers seem to be making out. A long way to go before we see how the people benefit, and more importantly, who picks up the bill.

[lord bunberry]

That's not much clearer to be honest!

I see the government spending hundreds of billions of pounds each and every year on things like the benefits bill (incl old age pensions) and the NHS...does none of that benefit the poor?

Surely a government that balances the books and reduces it's massive interest bill (£50bn or so?) would be able to spend more on such things? As it is the government is still increasing the debt load so if we do have austerity it's a bit of a strange description for a nation that's still spending more than what it receives.

The money needs to come from somewhere though so I am serious when I ask Lucky the question...no doubting the intention of his statement I'm just unclear as to what it actually means in practice.

OK off topic a touch I know but it is relevant as Greece had just achieved a primary surplus...that seems at risk now as the new party has promised all sorts of increases in public spending that would appear to be completely unaffordable.

But don't get me wrong, I think it's criminal what's happened to Greece all to protect a single currency that benefits few.

I think the argument is that if we hadn't bailed the banks out and we hadn't sold off all the nationalised industries we might not be in the position we are now. Iceland for example let their banks fail and they're doing alright. I know people will point to examples where nationalised industries didn't work, but that doesn't mean they can't. Everything is done now to keep the markets happy, so we don't end up in recession again. It may just be me but as an ordinary working man the so called boom years didn't feel that way to me and the worst recession in living memory hast felt that bad either. Government policy on the economy is to suit the most well off imo.

[RyeSloan]

I think the argument is that if we hadn't bailed the banks out and we hadn't sold off all the nationalised industries we might not be in the position we are now. Iceland for example let their banks fail and they're doing alright. I know people will point to examples where nationalised industries didn't work, but that doesn't mean they can't. Everything is done now to keep the markets happy, so we don't end up in recession again. It may just be me but as an ordinary working man the so called boom years didn't feel that way to me and the worst recession in living memory hast felt that bad either. Government policy on the economy is to suit the most well off imo.

Iceland is an interesting case...the fact is though that their route resulted in inflation of almost 20%, capital controls and a stock market that went down 95%!

Sure you could argue that their extreme pain resulted in a quicker fix if you want but you are kidding yourself if you think the UK electorate would have tolerated a similar approach...just look at the crus of Austerity and Too much too fast that we have seen while the UK has continued to over spend!

Also can you imagine a 95% fall in the UK stock market! The stock market is not just for traders but has massive amounts of workers and pensioners savings invested in it...anyone without a final salary scheme pension would have effectively seen their savings disappear! Now that would have made people poor...and that's before we get onto 20% inflation!

What 'worked' for Iceland was not really an option for the UK.

I don't agree with a lot of what the government does (or any main stream party policies) but trite comments like put people before business are just as bad and really don't mean anything...unless of course you mean subsided nationalised industries which of course the 'common man' would still have to support though their taxes anyway!

I also don't agree that government policies are just to suit the well off..see my previous comment on the UK public expenditure on welfare and healthcare, these are things that can't just be ignored.

I do agree tho that the great QE experiment is taking us into uncharted territory and have little faith that politicians and central bankers have any clue what they are actually up to! (Negative yields on German government bonds is just one symptom of the craziness). I suppose where I differ is that I see these people as not having the balls to actually say how it is due to the fact they know the masses would just vote for someone else who would pretend that the government would spend more on them and that more central power and decision making would actually be the answer.

[hibsbollah]

I'm all for Germany "permitting" a write-off/haircut as you suggest, if it is ONLY 180 MILLION GBP, but unfortunately it's not: it's a wee bit more than that: 188 BILLION GBP ... and counting ...

Yep, thats right of course. My point was the policies to deal with huge debt today are markedly different of what the world did for Germany after the wall street crash and later in 1945. It wasnt that long ago there were wolves in the streets of Berlin and people starving to death, not all as a result of war.

[lord bunberry]

Iceland is an interesting case...the fact is though that their route resulted in inflation of almost 20%, capital controls and a stock market that went down 95%!

Sure you could argue that their extreme pain resulted in a quicker fix if you want but you are kidding yourself if you think the UK electorate would have tolerated a similar approach...just look at the crus of Austerity and Too much too fast that we have seen while the UK has continued to over spend!

Also can you imagine a 95% fall in the UK stock market! The stock market is not just for traders but has massive amounts of workers and pensioners savings invested in it...anyone without a final salary scheme pension would have effectively seen their savings disappear! Now that would have made people poor...and that's before we get onto 20% inflation!

What 'worked' for Iceland was not really an option for the UK.

I don't agree with a lot of what the government does (or any main stream party policies) but trite comments like put people before business are just as bad and really don't mean anything...unless of course you mean subsided nationalised industries which of course the 'common man' would still have to support though their taxes anyway!

I also don't agree that government policies are just to suit the well off..see my previous comment on the UK public expenditure on welfare and healthcare, these are things that can't just be ignored.

I do agree tho that the great QE experiment is taking us into uncharted territory and have little faith that politicians and central bankers have any clue what they are actually up to! (Negative yields on German government bonds is just one symptom of the craziness). I suppose where I differ is that I see these people as not having the balls to actually say how it is due to the fact they know the masses would just vote for someone else who would pretend that the government would spend more on them and that more central power and decision making would actually be the answer.

I'm not really disagreeing with you and I'm not saying we should have went down the same route as Iceland. My point is that we have chosen a path that has made the poorest people in society suffer disproportionately to the most wealthy.
Globalisation has resulted in the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer, whether intentionally or not successive governments around the world have continued with that policy until we have a situation like we now have in Greece. If the Greeks default then I would be prepared to bet that Spain and Portugal will quickly follow suit and who knows were that will leave the rest of us. Your point about us not accepting an Icelandic style situation is almost certainly true, but if things continue as they are it may well be that we end up having to go down that route anyway.

[HappyAsHellas]

Sadly for Greece it is of course effectively bankrupt. A rich German friend has overseen a handout to sort of help them through but the repayments mean they owe more now than they did when they went belly up as it were. The nice Mr Tsipras is now going to re employ the thousands of government workers who got sort of paid off, and if all the good people of Greece actually pay all their taxes then there may be light at the end of the tunnel. If however, they revert back to their old ways and systems then the only avenue with money available seems to be bumping the troika and their financial demands. The outcome of this in the short term at least would be disastrous for Greece. It really is between a rock and a hard place, and whilst part of me would love them to come up with a solution that we could all learn from, I can't see it happening. Will they be allowed to stick two fingers up to the financial powers that be and get away with it? Doubtful, I fear.

[RyeSloan]

I'm not really disagreeing with you and I'm not saying we should have went down the same route as Iceland. My point is that we have chosen a path that has made the poorest people in society suffer disproportionately to the most wealthy. Globalisation has resulted in the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer, whether intentionally or not successive governments around the world have continued with that policy until we have a situation like we now have in Greece. If the Greeks default then I would be prepared to bet that Spain and Portugal will quickly follow suit and who knows were that will leave the rest of us. Your point about us not accepting an Icelandic style situation is almost certainly true, but if things continue as they are it may well be that we end up having to go down that route anyway.

Interesting points and I suppose we are not really disagreeing ;-)

It's curious though how globalisation is blamed for the poor getting poorer yet people expect national politicians to resolve this.

The Europe situation is 'special' though as it is almost all directly an outcome of the ludicrous Euro...a vanity project that has and is resulting in grinding austerity in much of Southern Europe.

One final comment from me is that the assumption the the poor are getting poorer is not universally accepted. The IFS have done quite a lot of analysis on this and although the data used is often a touch outdated did eventually come out and say that the lowest 5th of the population in income terms had actually seen a 1% rise in incomes since 2008. There is of course many ways to judge what 'poor' means but it's maybe not quite as black and white as people make out.

My final final comment is that the coalitions policy of raising income tax thresholds has missed the poorest as this section of the population doesn't tend to actually pay any tax (net of benefits) at all....that in itself is interesting in that it raises questions as to how much of a nations wealth should be 'given' to a section of society that doesn't actually contribute in tax terms. Said it before that on the face of it tax threshold rises look a clever idea to help the poor but in reality they don't...a debate for another day I suppose ;-)

[HappyAsHellas]

Interesting article here which uses common sense and therefore will not be understood by most politicians:

http://uk.businessinsider.com/syriza-is-right-about-debt-and-everyone-needs-to-get-over-it-2015-1

[HappyAsHellas]

I wasn't sure who or indeed what the independent Greeks are, but their leader seems like a bit of a loose canon.

https://theirategreek.wordpress.com/2015/01/26/strange-bedfellows/

[hibsbollah]

http://uk.businessinsider.com/greeces-new-government-is-already-hiking-the-minimum-wage-and-reversing-privatisation-2015-1?r=US

A good start.

[hibsbollah]

http://uk.businessinsider.com/syriza-is-right-about-debt-and-everyone-needs-to-get-over-it-2015-1#ixzz3Q6QWUmrC

And good analysis here.

[HappyAsHellas]

In the near future Greece will still need money to keep it's head above water. If it can't strike a deal with the troika then that leaves them going cap in hand to either China or Russia. Some commentators now wondering if they'll use their veto in the Russian sanctions as a bargaining chip if push comes to shove. Interesting times ahead.