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[B'Briggs Hibee]

I am a big yes voter and i hope with all my heart that Scotland gets independance tomorrow. However could someone out there with a better knoledge of politics please give me a pick me up? I keep seeing that NO are in the lead by 52% to 48% with only a day to go so my question is is that it done ? Is that an uncatchable lead? Is it possible to be clawed back ? Basically what i am saying is do we trust the polls becasue i went to bed last night i was pretty despondant at these figures however i woke up today and the YES campaign seemed delighted they are now within touching distance

[JeMeSouviens]

I am a big yes voter and i hope with all my heart that Scotland gets independance tomorrow. However could someone out there with a better knoledge of politics please give me a pick me up? I keep seeing that NO are in the lead by 52% to 48% with only a day to go so my question is is that it done ? Is that an uncatchable lead? Is it possible to be clawed back ? Basically what i am saying is do we trust the polls becasue i went to bed last night i was pretty despondant at these figures however i woke up today and the YES campaign seemed delighted they are now within touching distance

If this were a UK general election where the pollsters have a ton of past voting patterns to fall back on, a 4% lead at this stage would be a done deal. For a referendum in an electorate they're not particularly used to polling with a very high turnout expected, a load of freshly registered voters appearing from the woodwork and a large, highly motivated ground campaign working for the underdog, it's not.

Based on the polling, No should win, but a surprise is definitely possible.

[B'Briggs Hibee]

Obviously i get that only 1000 people are asked at a time and out of the 4 million registred thats absolutely nothing. So could ( and its a big could ) this still go to , say , 60% Yes once its all done or is it expected to be still really really close?

[CropleyWasGod]

I am a big yes voter and i hope with all my heart that Scotland gets independance tomorrow. However could someone out there with a better knoledge of politics please give me a pick me up? I keep seeing that NO are in the lead by 52% to 48% with only a day to go so my question is is that it done ? Is that an uncatchable lead? Is it possible to be clawed back ? Basically what i am saying is do we trust the polls becasue i went to bed last night i was pretty despondant at these figures however i woke up today and the YES campaign seemed delighted they are now within touching distance

Most of these polls have a margin of error of 4%.

Accordingly, 52:48 to No could be anything from 56:44 No to 52:48 Yes.

Remember, too, that no-one is "in the lead". Only a few of us have actually voted so far.

[Sir David Gray]

No will win at around 54:46%.

[Liberal Hibby]

The important thing about polls is not just the numbers they report it is the trend they are going in. And if you take all of the 52:48 polls and compare them with the last time the same pollster carried out a poll the majority of them show Yes going up and No going down - the Mori one showed a 7% swing from No to Yes. All the polls were carried out at least 24/48 hours ago so are a snapshot of a situation that is changing.

I think it is clear Yes was moving forward very strongly last week - but after the Westminster establishment threw the kitchen sink at it they have slowed/halted the Yes campaign's momentum, but haven't generated any of their own. It might be enough for a No victory - but Yes might still have enough momentum to pip them at the post.

You also have to take into account 750,000 postal votes which were sent out weeks ago and the vast bulk are returned in the first few days and at this time No was well ahead. So Yes could win on the day and lose when the Postal Votes are counted. But if rumours that the PVs are heavily Yes then the reverse could also be true!

Great thing democracy and the importnat thing is to vote tomorrow. I wish I could be with you - but us exiles don't get a vote :boo hoo:

[Jones28]

As has been said on the other thread regarding postal votes, they won't be being counted as of yet, only verified to make sure they are valid. A friend of mine was sent 2, one for Glasgow and one for her address here in the borders. It's to prevent situations like that influencing the outcome.

[SanFranHibs]

The top guy at ICM who have it at 52-48 for NO said yesterday that they could all be miles off and then threw his 'weight' behind NO saying the first time voters who will vote YES will be outweighed by the 'shy' NO's who have been saying YES in the polls because they are too scared or embarrassed to admit they are against Independence. I find it hard to believe there are any and certainly that there might be many who are too scared to tell a pollster which way they will be voting so lie about it.

I would like to have asked him why when the polls indicated a larger NO lead the shy NO's were not too scared to tell, or is he implying that it is only the undecided voters who will be switching to NO that are embarrassed to admit such.

:saltireflag