Clacton byelection

[Stranraer]

I'm wondering what people think will happen in the Clacton byelection triggered by Douglas Carswell's switch to UKIP from the Conservatives?

The latest polls on UKPollingReport are showing a significant lead for UKIP, could they win their first seat in the Commons?

[Hibs Class]

I'm wondering what people think will happen in the Clacton byelection triggered by Douglas Carswell's switch to UKIP from the Conservatives?

The latest polls on UKPollingReport are showing a significant lead for UKIP, could they win their first seat in the Commons?

Difficult one to call. By elections are more prone to protest votes than general election, and with this one being so close to the general election it's harder still to call. There will be those who vote for Carswell regardless of who he stands for, but there will be a Tory core who feel really let down by his defection. My guess would be for a Tory hold but with a much reduced majority.

[Mibbes Aye]

I'm wondering what people think will happen in the Clacton byelection triggered by Douglas Carswell's switch to UKIP from the Conservatives?

The latest polls on UKPollingReport are showing a significant lead for UKIP, could they win their first seat in the Commons?

The easiest route for UKIP to gain a seat is through an incumbent MP resigning, switching to them and seeking a by-election.

I think there's every likelihood they will see it through, especially as things become more febrile in the run-up to the 2015 election.

The real test of UKIP's staying power is probably whether they retain it, and by what margin, come the General Election.

[lord bunberry]

The easiest route for UKIP to gain a seat is through an incumbent MP resigning, switching to them and seeking a by-election.

I think there's every likelihood they will see it through, especially as things become more febrile in the run-up to the 2015 election.

The real test of UKIP's staying power is probably whether they retain it, and by what margin, come the General Election.

I'm sure the easiest route for them to get an mp would be for a Tory mp to defect to ukip without resigning his seat and forcing a by election

[Mibbes Aye]

I'm sure the easiest route for them to get an mp would be for a Tory mp to defect to ukip without resigning his seat and forcing a by election


Okay, technically yes, the easiest route for them to get an MP would be for a Tory MP to defect to Ukip without resigning and forcing a by election :rolleyes: :greengrin

But in practical terms, would Ukip want to risk the accusations of gaining their first MP without them having gone to the ballot box on their own manifesto?

It would lack credibility and they would be vilified for opportunism.

They had to trigger a by-election and get a franchise on their own ticket. The timing and the location feels like good politics on their part and raises intriguing questions for what will happen at the GE.