4 points required

[Ozyhibby]

http://sport.stv.tv:80/football/clubs/hibernian/271572-who-has-the-advantage-in-the-scottish-premiership-playoff-battle/

Good STV analysis of what's needed.

[Keith_M]

Not enough, I demand 15!


...oops, make it 14.

[ancient hibee]

Five nil nils would be fine.

[nribs]

A win on Saturday should see us safe. Not that I'm predicting a win on Saturday.

[Viva_Palmeiras]

anything less than a win ruins my birthday - come on Hibs it's what I want! ;)

[Steve20]

We don't win matches. We will be in the playoffs. Accept it. The players are wage thieves.

[Aldo]

We don't win matches. We will be in the playoffs. Accept it. The players are wage thieves.

We will not be in the play offs. We will pick up points and we will win at least one game.

[GreenCastle]

2 wins will make us safe - ideally starting this weekend.

Our form is terrible but surely has to improve soon?

[TAHibby]

We have to win sometime right?... I think it will be Saturday.

[Aldo]

2 wins will make us safe - ideally starting this weekend. Our form is terrible but surely has to improve soon?

Indeed it does. A last minute dodgy own goal to see us win wan nowt will do me. Win ugly at all costs

[Ronniekirk]

Indeed it does. A last minute dodgy own goal to see us win wan nowt will do me. Win ugly at all costs
All the buddies beside me are delighted they are playing us fiirst as they think we are in complete free fall and there for the taking .Three weeks ago they were resigned to them being in battle with thistle for play off spot so a lot can happen in three weeks But this is a crucial game for us as we need to show better form than we have in previous four games .We need to show we can make things happen ,I know what you mean you would accept dodgy own goal but we need to be creating for that to happen

[Aldo]

All the buddies beside me are delighted they are playing us fiirst as they think we are in complete free fall and there for the taking .Three weeks ago they were resigned to them being in battle with thistle for play off spot so a lot can happen in three weeks But this is a crucial game for us as we need to show better form than we have in previous four games .We need to show we can make things happen ,I know what you mean you would accept dodgy own goal but we need to be creating for that to happen

Agree with you on that. When TB first came in we were creating something now it's scraps. Two up top is a must but think TB will persist with one.

For me Saturdays game is the biggest of our season so we better turn up!!

[cleanyman]

All the buddies beside me are delighted they are playing us fiirst as they think we are in complete free fall and there for the taking .Three weeks ago they were resigned to them being in battle with thistle for play off spot so a lot can happen in three weeks But this is a crucial game for us as we need to show better form than we have in previous four games .We need to show we can make things happen ,I know what you mean you would accept dodgy own goal but we need to be creating for that to happen

This.

Never met a confident Saints fan in my puff prior to this week.

Hopefully I head into The Bull on Saturday cheesing rather than distraught.

[GreenCastle]

We have had 2 weeks to prepare a game plan and decent team selection.

I have a feeling we will go 1 up front and pack the midfield and be wary not to concede.

TB will take a point - when we really need to attack and get 3.

We haven't scored goals all season so 1 up limits our chances more. However we can't defend either - so may as we'll attack and excite the fans.

Haynes and Cummings or Haynes and Collins up top.

[silverhibee]

4 points required.


Deep doo doo.

[lord bunberry]

We don't win matches. We will be in the playoffs. Accept it. The players are wage thieves.

I'm surprised at that, you're normally so positive.

[greenpaper55]

As was pointed out in the stats we are not scoring goals so it makes things very difficult, i would take five 0-0 draws to crawl over the line.

[Sir David Gray]

If we win on Saturday, we'll be safe.

We'll be at least six points clear of the play off spot with potentially four teams separating us from 11th place.

There's no way that four teams will overtake us over the course of four matches.

It's the winning on Saturday part that I'm not too confident about!

[SouthamptonHibs]

Will Hibs let us down in last five games of Season 14/15?

I was thinking about our recent failures and wondered can Hibs let us down even more?

Here are some of our recent low lights with our current players.
1. 11th place finish 2011/12
2. 5-1 humping fi Hearts
3. Bottom 6 2012/13
4. Out league cup exit by div 2 team QoS
5. Malmo 9-0 agg
6. Loosing to Hearts 3 times in 13/14 season including league cup exit and messing up chance to relegate them
7. Loosing to Raith in SC
8. 1 win in last 14 games
9. Bottom 6 again 2013/14 - possible 11th place finish and relegation

Our Highlights IMO
1. Beating Hearts in 2012/13 cup game
2. Hearts going into admin
3. Falkirk cup comeback
4. Fans singing last 20mins at Celtic cup final
5. Beating a piss poor Hearts at New year 2014 2-1

Going forward

Can Hibs finish on a high by beating Saints tomorrow and more importantly beating Hearts next week?
Thoughts?
Hail Hail

[Pete]

Will Hibs let us down in last five games of Season 14/15?

I was thinking about our recent failures and wondered can Hibs let us down even more?

Here are some of our recent low lights with our current players.
1. 11th place finish 2011/12
2. 5-1 humping fi Hearts
3. Bottom 6 2012/13
4. Out league cup exit by div 2 team QoS
5. Malmo 9-0 agg
6. Loosing to Hearts 3 times in 13/14 season including league cup exit and messing up chance to relegate them
7. Loosing to Raith in SC
8. 1 win in last 14 games
9. Bottom 6 again 2013/14 - possible 11th place finish and relegation

Our Highlights IMO
1. Beating Hearts in 2012/13 cup game
2. Hearts going into admin
3. Falkirk cup comeback
4. Fans singing last 20mins at Celtic cup final
5. Beating a piss poor Hearts at New year 2014 2-1

Going forward

Can Hibs finish on a high by beating Saints tomorrow and more importantly beating Hearts next week?
Thoughts?
Hail Hail

Thoughts?

I think you could have asked a simple question without all the negative, pointless crap before it.

Hail hail.

[SouthamptonHibs]

Thoughts?

I think you could have asked a simple question without all the negative, pointless crap before it.

Hail hail.

No pointless crap! That pointless crap is our recent History, it helps build the question and gets yer mind in the right place to answer the question. The facts are hard but it's the truth/facts

As you've responded to the post are you gonna answer the question?

[lord bunberry]

Will Hibs let us down in last five games of Season 14/15?

I was thinking about our recent failures and wondered can Hibs let us down even more?

Here are some of our recent low lights with our current players.
1. 11th place finish 2011/12
2. 5-1 humping fi Hearts
3. Bottom 6 2012/13
4. Out league cup exit by div 2 team QoS
5. Malmo 9-0 agg
6. Loosing to Hearts 3 times in 13/14 season including league cup exit and messing up chance to relegate them
7. Loosing to Raith in SC
8. 1 win in last 14 games
9. Bottom 6 again 2013/14 - possible 11th place finish and relegation

Our Highlights IMO
1. Beating Hearts in 2012/13 cup game
2. Hearts going into admin
3. Falkirk cup comeback
4. Fans singing last 20mins at Celtic cup final
5. Beating a piss poor Hearts at New year 2014 2-1

Going forward

Can Hibs finish on a high by beating Saints tomorrow and more importantly beating Hearts next week?
Thoughts?
Hail Hail

Thank god you reminded us all about those lowlights, I'd forgotten about them, and to answer you're question, I've no idea how we will get on in the last five games of next season.

[emerald green]

We will not be in the play offs. We will pick up points and we will win at least one game.

I really really hope so. Relegation is just unthinkable for Hibs. I hope the guys pulling on the Hibs jersey for the next few games - the next two in particular - fully understand that.

[Craig_in_Prague]

I really really hope so. Relegation is just unthinkable for Hibs. I hope the guys pulling on the Hibs jersey for the next few games - the next two in particular - fully understand that.

Who knows - Liam Craig ("captain") might even break sweat ?

[ekhibee]

I think this will be a really hard game. IMO St Mirren play better football than us, but they are certainly not unbeatable. I'll go 0-0, or 1-0 to them but obviously I hope I'm wrong.

[emerald green]

Who knows - Liam Craig ("captain") might even break sweat ?

He had better mate. Had enough of so-called Hibs players disgracing the jersey. Oh for players like Pat Stanton, Jimmy O'Rourke and Shades in the team tomorrow.

[Ronniekirk]

I think this will be a really hard game. IMO St Mirren play better football than us, but they are certainly not unbeatable. I'll go 0-0, or 1-0 to them but obviously I hope I'm wrong.
We are not capable of keeping clean sheet IMO so hope you are wrong as that only leaves. 1 0 for them, can't see us going five games in a row without scoring .:rolleyes:

[stevejordan]

i have said many times already we will beat Partick and get a draw v Killie this will be enough a defeat to St Mirren is not the end game.

[cozy sausage]

I know I should get out more but I like a bit of maths.

The STV article is indeed in-depth, but sadly flawed...not only does 4 points not GUARANTEE safety, neither does 6 points. 7 points is the minimium for a guarantee.

It is of course possible that Hibs could finish higher than 11th by winning no more points at all. For example imagine if Thistle beat Hibs but both teams lose their remaining 4 matches. The points would look like this.. Thistle 33 and Hibs 34. I don’t recommend it though.

On the other hand it is feasible for Hibs to pick up 6 points and still finish 11th. This is how..
There are 5 ‘rounds’ of matches to go. Each week up to 9 points are available in the three “bottom six” games. 5 times 9 = 45 so there are a maximum of 45 points to spread around till the end of season. Imagine that Hibs beat Hearts and Partick Thistle but lose their remaining 3 games and no other match is a draw (unlikely I know but this is a worst case scenario) The table could then could look like this..



Points
before
split

Pts won in
next 5
(assume 2
Hibs wins)

Final
points



St Mirren

31

12

43



Partick Thistle

30

12

42



Ross County

31

9

40



Hibs

34

6

40



Kilmarnock

33

6

39



Hearts

13


13



Total points


45





So far so good, but now imagine that instead of Thistle beating Kilmarnock, they draw. The table would now look like this



Points
before
split

Pts won in
next 5
(assume that draw)


Final points



St Mirren

31

12

43



Partick Thistle

30

10

40



Ross County

31

9

40



Hibs

34

6

40



Kilmarnock

33

7

40



Hearts

13


13



Total points


44 (1 match a draw)





The nightmare scenario is complete! Four teams on 40 points and so it comes down to goal difference.
Note – there are thousands of possible outcomes but this is not the only one that could send Hibs into the play-off. In summary...

MATHEMATICALLY 7 points would guarantee safety, not 6 and certainly not 4.
POSSIBLY 0 points might be enough to keep us clear
PROBABLY 3 or 4 will do the trick. A win on Saturday would be a good start.

Anyway it will all change tomorrow, and I shall be there to see it. My first visit away to St Mirren since George Best made his debut!! (Fair weather or what?)


:flag:

[stevejordan]

I know I should get out more but I like a bit of maths.

The STV article is indeed in-depth, but sadly flawed...not only does 4 points not GUARANTEE safety, neither does 6 points. 7 points is the minimium for a guarantee.

It is of course possible that Hibs could finish higher than 11th by winning no more points at all. For example imagine if Thistle beat Hibs but both teams lose their remaining 4 matches. The points would look like this.. Thistle 33 and Hibs 34. I don’t recommend it though.

On the other hand it is feasible for Hibs to pick up 6 points and still finish 11th. This is how..
There are 5 ‘rounds’ of matches to go. Each week up to 9 points are available in the three “bottom six” games. 5 times 9 = 45 so there are a maximum of 45 points to spread around till the end of season. Imagine that Hibs beat Hearts and Partick Thistle but lose their remaining 3 games and no other match is a draw (unlikely I know but this is a worst case scenario) The table could then could look like this..



Points
before
split

Pts won in
next 5
(assume 2
Hibs wins)

Final
points



St Mirren

31

12

43



Partick Thistle

30

12

42



Ross County

31

9

40



Hibs

34

6

40



Kilmarnock

33

6

39



Hearts

13


13



Total points


45





So far so good, but now imagine that instead of Thistle beating Kilmarnock, they draw. The table would now look like this



Points
before
split

Pts won in
next 5
(assume that draw)


Final points



St Mirren

31

12

43



Partick Thistle

30

10

40



Ross County

31

9

40



Hibs

34

6

40



Kilmarnock

33

7

40



Hearts

13


13



Total points


44 (1 match a draw)





The nightmare scenario is complete! Four teams on 40 points and so it comes down to goal difference.
Note – there are thousands of possible outcomes but this is not the only one that could send Hibs into the play-off. In summary...

MATHEMATICALLY 7 points would guarantee safety, not 6 and certainly not 4.
POSSIBLY 0 points might be enough to keep us clear
PROBABLY 3 or 4 will do the trick. A win on Saturday would be a good start.

Anyway it will all change tomorrow, and I shall be there to see it. My first visit away to St Mirren since George Best made his debut!! (Fair weather or what?)


:flag:

I Originally thought that 0 points would keep us up as we had a decent buffer 4 points and a better goal difference however other teams picking up unlikely points has made me re think 4 points should be enough though.