Perceptions vs Reality

[hibsbollah]

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3188/Perceptions-are-not-reality.aspx

Interesting...

[Twa Cairpets]

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3188/Perceptions-are-not-reality.aspx

Interesting...

Stupidity + Daily Mail = These results.

[hibsbollah]

A new survey by Ipsos MORI for the Royal Statistical Society and King’s College London highlights how wrong the British public can be on the make-up of the population and the scale of key social policy issues.* The top ten misperceptions are:

1.*******Teenage pregnancy: on average, we think teenage pregnancy is 25 times higher than official estimates:* we think that 15% of girls*under*16 get pregnant each year, when official figures suggest it is around 0.6%[i].*

2.*******Crime: 58% do not believe that crime is falling, when the Crime Survey for England and Wales shows that incidents of crime were 19% lower in 2012 than in 2006/07 and 53% lower than in 1995[ii].* 51% think violent crime is rising, when it has fallen from almost 2.5 million incidents in 2006/07 to under 2 million in 2012[iii].

3.*******Job-seekers allowance: 29% of people think we spend more on JSA than pensions, when in fact we spend 15 times more on pensions (£4.9bn vs £74.2bn)[iv].

4.*******Benefit fraud: people estimate that 34 times more benefit money is claimed fraudulently than official estimates: the public think that £24 out of every £100 spent on benefits is claimed fraudulently, compared with official estimates of £0.70 per £100[v].

5.*******Foreign aid: 26% of people think foreign aid is one of the top 2-3 items government spends most money on, when it actually made up 1.1% of expenditure (£7.9bn) in the 2011/12 financial year.* More people select this as a top item of expenditure than pensions (which cost nearly ten times as much, £74bn) and education in the UK (£51.5bn)[vi].

6.*******Religion: we greatly overestimate the proportion of the population who are Muslims: on average we say 24%, compared with 5% in England and Wales.* And we underestimate the proportion of Christians: we estimate 34% on average, compared with the actual proportion of 59% in England and Wales[vii].

7.*******Immigration and ethnicity: the public think that 31% of the population are immigrants, when the official figures are 13%[viii]. Even estimates that attempt to account for illegal immigration suggest a figure closer to 15%.* There are similar misperceptions on ethnicity: the average estimate is that Black and Asian people make up 30% of the population, when it is actually 11% (or 14% if we include mixed and other non-white ethnic groups)[ix]
8.*******Age: we think the population is much older than it actually is – the average estimate is that 36% of the population are 65+, when only 16% are[x].

9.*******Benefit bill: people are most likely to think that capping benefits at £26,000 per household will save most money from a list provided (33% pick this option), over twice the level that select raising the pension age to 66 for both men and women or stopping child benefit when someone in the household earns £50k+.* In fact, capping household benefits is estimated to save £290m[xi], compared with £5bn[xii]*for raising the pension age and £1.7bn[xiii]*for stopping child benefit for wealthier households.

10.***Voting: we underestimate the proportion of people who voted in the last general election – our average guess is 43%, when 65% of the electorate actually did (51% of the whole population)[xiv].*These misperceptions present clear issues for informed public debate and policy-making.

[Speedy]

A new survey by Ipsos MORI for the Royal Statistical Society and King’s College London highlights how wrong the British public can be on the make-up of the population and the scale of key social policy issues.* The top ten misperceptions are:

1.*******Teenage pregnancy: on average, we think teenage pregnancy is 25 times higher than official estimates:* we think that 15% of girls*under*16 get pregnant each year, when official figures suggest it is around 0.6%[i].*

2.*******Crime: 58% do not believe that crime is falling, when the Crime Survey for England and Wales shows that incidents of crime were 19% lower in 2012 than in 2006/07 and 53% lower than in 1995[ii].* 51% think violent crime is rising, when it has fallen from almost 2.5 million incidents in 2006/07 to under 2 million in 2012[iii].

3.*******Job-seekers allowance: 29% of people think we spend more on JSA than pensions, when in fact we spend 15 times more on pensions (£4.9bn vs £74.2bn)[iv].

4.*******Benefit fraud: people estimate that 34 times more benefit money is claimed fraudulently than official estimates: the public think that £24 out of every £100 spent on benefits is claimed fraudulently, compared with official estimates of £0.70 per £100[v].

5.*******Foreign aid: 26% of people think foreign aid is one of the top 2-3 items government spends most money on, when it actually made up 1.1% of expenditure (£7.9bn) in the 2011/12 financial year.* More people select this as a top item of expenditure than pensions (which cost nearly ten times as much, £74bn) and education in the UK (£51.5bn)[vi].

6.*******Religion: we greatly overestimate the proportion of the population who are Muslims: on average we say 24%, compared with 5% in England and Wales.* And we underestimate the proportion of Christians: we estimate 34% on average, compared with the actual proportion of 59% in England and Wales[vii].

7.*******Immigration and ethnicity: the public think that 31% of the population are immigrants, when the official figures are 13%[viii]. Even estimates that attempt to account for illegal immigration suggest a figure closer to 15%.* There are similar misperceptions on ethnicity: the average estimate is that Black and Asian people make up 30% of the population, when it is actually 11% (or 14% if we include mixed and other non-white ethnic groups)[ix]
8.*******Age: we think the population is much older than it actually is – the average estimate is that 36% of the population are 65+, when only 16% are[x].

9.*******Benefit bill: people are most likely to think that capping benefits at £26,000 per household will save most money from a list provided (33% pick this option), over twice the level that select raising the pension age to 66 for both men and women or stopping child benefit when someone in the household earns £50k+.* In fact, capping household benefits is estimated to save £290m[xi], compared with £5bn[xii]*for raising the pension age and £1.7bn[xiii]*for stopping child benefit for wealthier households.

10.***Voting: we underestimate the proportion of people who voted in the last general election – our average guess is 43%, when 65% of the electorate actually did (51% of the whole population)[xiv].*These misperceptions present clear issues for informed public debate and policy-making.

1. Discussing TEENAGE pregnancy but using stats for under 16s.
2. Asking the BRITISH public but using stats for England and Wales.
4. It's only an estimate, who's to say it's anywhere near correct.
10. 43% isn't that far away from 51%.

Clutching at straws a little bit but my point is that these results are far from flawless.

[Beefster]

Stupidity + Daily Mail = These results.

Some folk polled might work that hard to provide for their family that they don't have the time, energy or inclination to filter the bull**** in the media.

I wouldn't go assuming that those folk are stupid by default.

[Hibbyradge]

1. Discussing TEENAGE pregnancy but using stats for under 16s.
2. Asking the BRITISH public but using stats for England and Wales.
4. It's only an estimate, who's to say it's anywhere near correct.
10. 43% isn't that far away from 51%.

Clutching at straws a little bit but my point is that these results are far from flawless.

The 43% is comparable to the 65% not the 51%.

[Speedy]

The 43% is comparable to the 65% not the 51%.

It depends what the question is.

[hibsbollah]

1. Discussing TEENAGE pregnancy but using stats for under 16s.
2. Asking the BRITISH public but using stats for England and Wales.
4. It's only an estimate, who's to say it's anywhere near correct.
10. 43% isn't that far away from 51%.

Clutching at straws a little bit but my point is that these results are far from flawless.

1. A bit pedantic. Teenage pregnancy is used here to refer to births under the age of consent. It might have been better to add the word 'underage'. Theres no confusion about the perceived v real figures, which is the point of MORIs findings.

2. Scottish crime stats have always been collated separately.

4. All statistics are 'estimates'! Theres no reason to think welfare fraud is any more underreported than any other.

10. True, 43% isnt 'much less' than 51%. But no one's making a commentary, they are just presenting the numbers and leaving the conclusions to the reader.

[Speedy]

1. A bit pedantic. Teenage pregnancy is used here to refer to births under the age of consent. It might have been better to add the word 'underage'. Theres no confusion about the perceived v real figures, which is the point of MORIs findings.

2. Scottish crime stats have always been collated separately.

4. All statistics are 'estimates'! Theres no reason to think welfare fraud is any more underreported than any other.

10. True, 43% isnt 'much less' than 51%. But no one's making a commentary, they are just presenting the numbers and leaving the conclusions to the reader.

My whole post is very pedantic but my point is their perception of reality is misleading.

[Twa Cairpets]

Some folk polled might work that hard to provide for their family that they don't have the time, energy or inclination to filter the bull**** in the media.

I wouldn't go assuming that those folk are stupid by default.
Depends how the questions were framed, but if you don't filter the the answer to a question would be "don't know".

The questions relating to Daily Mail-esque targets of derision such as underage mums, Muslims, benefit fraud and the like are dangerous when it comes to policy creation. People who rage against false arguments have influence, and if they rage without looking at the facts rather than the myth then, frankly, they are stupid.