EU referendum

[LeighLoyal]

But not until 2017 :confused: They're quite happy to bring in gay marriage (both Salmond up here and Cameron) that was in no manifesto but something of actual real importance has to wait. We could have a situ where Salmond is trying to get us in as a new member on a worse deal than the one England will opt out on - another reason why he is a joker! As much as my heart likes the idea of independence it's surely not in Scotland's interests to be a new EU member on worse terms than the UK deal. The worst aspect will be if England come out and Salmond wins the independence vote next year, all Scottish goods going South will have be tariffed post 2017 until they have trade agreements in place. Anyway, could be great news. It's cost the country a fortune, been politically disastrous, sucked in a huge amount of immigrants nobody was told about and cost the country jobs in many sectors since the old Soviet bloc joined - in particular financial services in Edinburgh - had dire consequencies for our fishing and food industries and been a bonanza for human rights lawyers. I supect this is just posturing by Cameron because he's scared of UKIP.

[Hibbyradge]

lol

[lyonhibs]

Cameron seems to want to pick and choose which bits of being in Europe/being a member of the EU he deigns as being "suitable" for his new vision of Britain, where all the needy, disabled and long-term sick people have gently been railroaded to an early grave through swinging and ill-thought out benefit cuts.

I trust that the rest of Europe will tell him where to ram his navel gazing, blinkered "better agreement for the UK".

[Hainan Hibs]

Well, I would like the answers to a few questions before I even entertained the notion of separatists like Cameron.

Will I still be able to watch Borgen?

How can I continue to support the European Ryder Cup team if I stop being European?

When will I get a 10 year, fully costed, economic plan for a separate UK without European handouts?

Will I need a visa for Spain?

Just how will a separate UK survive?

How will we continue trading?

What aboot the Euromillions?


:greengrin

[hibsbollah]

Smart politics. He's minimised UKIPs appeal with the Euro elections coming up, placated the 'no croissants, thanks johnny foreigner, im British' wing of his own nauseating party. But at the same time hes delayed any referendum until potentially 2018, and could conceivably just renege on this 'commitment' anyway the same way as any politician can do with any manifesto promise. This also means he avoids angering his pro-Europe business friends in the city.

It will be trailed as a Eurosceptic move, but really its steering a middle course.

[Beefster]

But not until 2017 :confused: They're quite happy to bring in gay marriage (both Salmond up here and Cameron) that was in no manifesto but something of actual real importance has to wait.

1. The Tories cannot hold an In/Out referendum whilst in a coalition with the Lib Dems.

2. They have to negotiate any deal with the EU before it can be put to a referendum.

3. A debate needs to be had in the UK before a referendum.

All those things added up means that it has to be a few years down the line.

Either way, I'm hoping the the UK public aren't stupid enough to vote for us to leave the EU.

[Beefster]

Will I still be able to watch Borgen?

How can I continue to support the European Ryder Cup team if I stop being European?

When will I get a 10 year, fully costed, economic plan for a separate UK without European handouts?

Will I need a visa for Spain?

Just how will a separate UK survive?

How will we continue trading?

What aboot the Euromillions?

No.

You can't.

No.

Yes and a rectal examination.

It won't.

All monies won will have to be paid back. On the plus side, you get all the money spent on tickets back too.

[steakbake]

This is going to become a very interesting parallel debate to the Scottish independence referendum.

Not too long ago, the inference was being made that Scotland had to be in the EU and that we couldn't count on membership.

Now it seems we could vote to stay in the UK in 2014 yet still be out of the EU a few years later.

Which is it? It can't be both. And the arguments for an in/out EU referendum are largely the same as the basis of a Scottish independence one: where should decisions be made?

[Hainan Hibs]

This is going to become a very interesting parallel debate to the Scottish independence referendum.

Not too long ago, the inference was being made that Scotland had to be in the EU and that we couldn't count on membership.

Now it seems we could vote to stay in the UK in 2014 yet still be out of the EU a few years later.

Which is it? It can't be both. And the arguments for an in/out EU referendum are largely the same as the basis of a Scottish independence one: where should decisions be made?

Cameron managed to wipe out a number of BetterTogether's main arguments in one swoop, I can only imagine that either 1) they think 2014 is in the bag or 2) They just don't give a ****. Will be interesting to see how it develops.

[VickMackie]

The guys an Idiot.

They're using the referendum to win the next election to dangle the carrot for those that want out then he's going to argue to stay in.

[RyeSloan]

The guys an Idiot.

They're using the referendum to win the next election to dangle the carrot for those that want out then he's going to argue to stay in.

The first could be a minority that helps him get in with a majority and the second could be an stance that the majority agree with. Doesn't sound too idiotic to me! :greengrin

To be honest i don't get what the problem is. Our membership of the EU changed with the intro of the Euro. Events since are only driving the 'ins' closer and driving substantial changes...it may well make sense to reassess our membership and decide if it is worth the substantial subscription costs.

[Sir David Gray]

I personally think this will be a vote winner at the next election.

It will be interesting to see if Labour come up with a similar pledge.

Personally I would vote to leave the EU and I also personally feel that the vote would go that way too, certainly if it was held tomorrow.

However, regardless of whether or not you think Britain should be in or out of the EU, it is absolutely the right decision for the British public to get the chance to vote on this issue.

The last time there was a vote of any kind in the UK on the subject of Europe, the British people were asked to vote on something that does not resemble what the EU is today in any way, shape or form.

That result is no longer valid in my opinion.

We need an up to date answer on what the British people think of our membership of the EU. If the majority decides that we should be in it then fair enough, you can't argue with that.

I'm not certain that will be the outcome though.

I think David Cameron has been quite smart here. He's potentially crushing the UKIP vote by announcing this and I think if they're the only major party making this pledge then it will be a vote winner, as I said earlier. He can then lead the country for another four or five years and lead the pro-EU camp going into the referendum as he's made his opinion quite clear on the matter.

[Twa Cairpets]

Personally I'm looking for to HKHibby's input on this thread.

[Jonnyboy]

Personally I'm looking for to HKHibby's input on this thread.

Indeed. The view from afar :wink:

[lucky]

But not until 2017 :confused: They're quite happy to bring in gay marriage (both Salmond up here and Cameron) that was in no manifesto but something of actual real importance has to wait. We could have a situ where Salmond is trying to get us in as a new member on a worse deal than the one England will opt out on - another reason why he is a joker! As much as my heart likes the idea of independence it's surely not in Scotland's interests to be a new EU member on worse terms than the UK deal. The worst aspect will be if England come out and Salmond wins the independence vote next year, all Scottish goods going South will have be tariffed post 2017 until they have trade agreements in place. Anyway, could be great news. It's cost the country a fortune, been politically disastrous, sucked in a huge amount of immigrants nobody was told about and cost the country jobs in many sectors since the old Soviet bloc joined - in particular financial services in Edinburgh - had dire consequencies for our fishing and food industries and been a bonanza for human rights lawyers. I supect this is just posturing by Cameron because he's scared of UKIP.

Never knew Nigel Farge was a Hibbie. Personally I hope you never get near sharp objects as your dangerous enough with a key board

[lucky]

Cameron managed to wipe out a number of BetterTogether's main arguments in one swoop, I can only imagine that either 1) they think 2014 is in the bag or 2) They just don't give a ****. Will be interesting to see how it develops.

These comments worry me as this actually may be the Tory tactic to get an independent England. I still we are all better together in the UK and EU

[HKhibby]

The first could be a minority that helps him get in with a majority and the second could be an stance that the majority agree with. Doesn't sound too idiotic to me! :greengrin

To be honest i don't get what the problem is. Our membership of the EU changed with the intro of the Euro. Events since are only driving the 'ins' closer and driving substantial changes...it may well make sense to reassess our membership and decide if it is worth the substantial subscription costs.

Exactly...not too idiotic is it, Scotland will still be in the UK, no worries about that, and the UK will not leave Europe completely, there will be a referendum on the EU membership, but i think he will actually pull some powers back from Brussels...including control of Immigration!...which is the main problem in the UK.
He is big friends with Merkel, contrary to what the popular press report there, Merkel runs Europe and is the most powerful leader throughout Europe / EU etc.., if he has her on his side as Germany already hinted that there could be a deal with the UK for a different arrangement.

What the different arrangement is remains to be seen...which is why any referendum could not be held right now, he has to be given time to try and negotiate a deal which should include powers back from Brussels, and definatly cut costs of money going to Brussels

[HKhibby]

Personally I'm looking for to HKHibby's input on this thread.


Why cant you think of anything to say on your own...probably not...so do you just follow the leader

[HKhibby]

Indeed. The view from afar :wink:


Indeed but the view from afar as you say is usually right..not always but usually when i know what im talking about.
You obviously dont have a view yourself or you wouldnt need someone else to comment for you or would you, or is it just the same old case...inward looking into a goldfish bowl like image of Scotland?...incidentally...just like Europe!

Oh i do hope the weather isnt too cold there for you...im just going to sign off and go and sit on my Balcony with late breakfast in the 20c winter sunshine!!..have a good day

[GhostofBolivar]

This man is supposed to be trying to resurrect the economy after one of the worst crashes in history and he's playing stupid political games.

Why on earth would a company invest in the UK while Cameron's creating so much uncertainty about the UK's position.

On top of that, I'm certain that leaving the EU would be disastrous for the UK and leave us in far worse a position when dealing with Europe than we are in now. We'd still have to conform to EU regulations when trading with member states, only we'd get no say in what those regulations are.

Oh, and it'd make the lives of normal people far worse. Wave goodbye to cheap flights. No more 4 weeks of paid holiday every year. No more kitemarks on goods to let you know your new toaster won't electrocute you.

[Beefster]

This man is supposed to be trying to resurrect the economy after one of the worst crashes in history and he's playing stupid political games.

Why on earth would a company invest in the UK while Cameron's creating so much uncertainty about the UK's position.

On top of that, I'm certain that leaving the EU would be disastrous for the UK and leave us in far worse a position when dealing with Europe than we are in now. We'd still have to conform to EU regulations when trading with member states, only we'd get no say in what those regulations are.

Oh, and it'd make the lives of normal people far worse. Wave goodbye to cheap flights. No more 4 weeks of paid holiday every year. No more kitemarks on goods to let you know your new toaster won't electrocute you.

Because we have the second largest economy in the EU. As simple as that. Money talks.

I don't want to leave the EU (in fact, I'd be happy with closer ties) but I do hope folk on both sides don't start all sorts of scaremongering. I'm fairly sure that toasters are not going to start electrocuting folk en-masse if we vote to get out. There are countries all over the globe that manage to exist perfectly well without being in the EU. Just like there are 27 that are probably better off by being part of it.

[marinello59]

This is going to become a very interesting parallel debate to the Scottish independence referendum.

Not too long ago, the inference was being made that Scotland had to be in the EU and that we couldn't count on membership.

Now it seems we could vote to stay in the UK in 2014 yet still be out of the EU a few years later.

Which is it? It can't be both. And the arguments for an in/out EU referendum are largely the same as the basis of a Scottish independence one: where should decisions be made?

The SNP are making the case, (rightly IMHO) for us remaining part of the EU as an Independent nation. Nobody is inferring anything. As for our membership position if we go it alone, Salmond and Co. decided to muddy the waters on that one as they did not know the answer.




Cameron managed to wipe out a number of BetterTogether's main arguments in one swoop, I can only imagine that either 1) they think 2014 is in the bag or 2) They just don't give a ****. Will be interesting to see how it develops.

I would disagree with that. The Better Together campaign are arguing that we are better as UK plc than splitting in to component parts. If they are right then that is true whether we remain part of the EU or not.

[Just Alf]

This man is supposed to be trying to resurrect the economy after one of the worst crashes in history and he's playing stupid political games.

Why on earth would a company invest in the UK while Cameron's creating so much uncertainty about the UK's position.

On top of that, I'm certain that leaving the EU would be disastrous for the UK and leave us in far worse a position when dealing with Europe than we are in now. We'd still have to conform to EU regulations when trading with member states, only we'd get no say in what those regulations are.

Oh, and it'd make the lives of normal people far worse. Wave goodbye to cheap flights. No more 4 weeks of paid holiday every year. No more kitemarks on goods to let you know your new toaster won't electrocute you.

This is what Cameron says about the Scottish referendum!

[Hibrandenburg]

If the UK were to leave the EU, then my company would have to leave the UK. Sure there would be countless other companies in the same boat.

[Hainan Hibs]

I would disagree with that. The Better Together campaign are arguing that we are better as UK plc than splitting in to component parts. If they are right then that is true whether we remain part of the EU or not.

There are differences between leaving UK and EU, I agree, however I was meaning things such as: Cameron stating there are countries who won't be forced to join the Euro, waiting until 2014 is causing uncertainty, voting No was only way to guarantee EU membership etc.

[LeighLoyal]

Salmond's position that he wants to join the EU as a new member but stay out of the Euro will surely collapse about his ears if England vote No in 2017. You can't have England and the pound outside the EU and Salmond with a sterling based economy, controlled by the Bank of England, inside. It all says there's no chance independece happening in 2014. As for that pathetic letter sent to Brussells... :confused: A sixth form kid could have told him what that response would be.

[VickMackie]

The first could be a minority that helps him get in with a majority and the second could be an stance that the majority agree with. Doesn't sound too idiotic to me! :greengrin

To be honest i don't get what the problem is. Our membership of the EU changed with the intro of the Euro. Events since are only driving the 'ins' closer and driving substantial changes...it may well make sense to reassess our membership and decide if it is worth the substantial subscription costs.

I edited the word to idiot when the swear filter didn't remove my word!

Smart move to keep them in power though.

I'm sure I read Norway pay 8 billion to access the free/single market. Although I'm not entirely sure why people need to pay to trade.

[RyeSloan]

This man is supposed to be trying to resurrect the economy after one of the worst crashes in history and he's playing stupid political games.

Why on earth would a company invest in the UK while Cameron's creating so much uncertainty about the UK's position.

On top of that, I'm certain that leaving the EU would be disastrous for the UK and leave us in far worse a position when dealing with Europe than we are in now. We'd still have to conform to EU regulations when trading with member states, only we'd get no say in what those regulations are.

Oh, and it'd make the lives of normal people far worse. Wave goodbye to cheap flights. No more 4 weeks of paid holiday every year. No more kitemarks on goods to let you know your new toaster won't electrocute you.


Why would leaving automatically be disastrous? Would we not still be able to negotiate our own trade agreement with the now smaller EU and of course open up our trade/economy to the rest of the world rather than being forced to stay behind the EU 'iron curtain'?

Requirements to trade with EU are not the same as having to conform to all EU regulations. Are you suggesting all countries that currently import into the EU have to have EU regulations implemented in full in their domestic economies?

Why would people no longer receive 4 weeks paid holiday leave? and I'm sure you will find kitemarks were actually a British creation that existed long before the behemoth that is the current EU.

I think there is a substantial list of pros and cons to consider here and that knee jerk reactions that the world would end without Britian being a full member of the EU do little to inform the debate.

This link is quite interesting: http://openeuropeblog.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/new-figures-show-that-514-of-uk-goods.html

[HKhibby]

This man is supposed to be trying to resurrect the economy after one of the worst crashes in history and he's playing stupid political games.

Why on earth would a company invest in the UK while Cameron's creating so much uncertainty about the UK's position.

On top of that, I'm certain that leaving the EU would be disastrous for the UK and leave us in far worse a position when dealing with Europe than we are in now. We'd still have to conform to EU regulations when trading with member states, only we'd get no say in what those regulations are.

Oh, and it'd make the lives of normal people far worse. Wave goodbye to cheap flights. No more 4 weeks of paid holiday every year. No more kitemarks on goods to let you know your new toaster won't electrocute you.

Playing the politics of the Socialist Left! and the Negative people...You really think the UK could not cope outside the EU?...very misguided!!, there are companies and people would invest in the UK including Scotland right now!...from Asia if it were not part of the EU gravy train!...because they know the uk has always had a different work ethic from Europe and the end result is manufacturing and alot of employment etc..., what they do not need is endless redtape and regulations that do not concern them.

The UK can easily stand on its own 2 feet outside the EU! if the EU puts regulations and tarriffs...the uk will do the same!, its all about money!, the EU need the UK, the UK need the Eu but do not need the endless regulations and redtape!

[Jonnyboy]

Indeed but the view from afar as you say is usually right..not always but usually when i know what im talking about.
You obviously dont have a view yourself or you wouldnt need someone else to comment for you or would you, or is it just the same old case...inward looking into a goldfish bowl like image of Scotland?...incidentally...just like Europe!

Oh i do hope the weather isnt too cold there for you...im just going to sign off and go and sit on my Balcony with late breakfast in the 20c winter sunshine!!..have a good day

Oooh hark at her :faf:

[hibsbollah]

Playing the politics of the Socialist Left! and the Negative people...You really think the UK could not cope outside the EU?...very misguided!!, there are companies and people would invest in the UK including Scotland right now!...from Asia if it were not part of the EU gravy train!...because they know the uk has always had a different work ethic from Europe and the end result is manufacturing and alot of employment etc..., what they do not need is endless redtape and regulations that do not concern them.

The UK can easily stand on its own 2 feet outside the EU! if the EU puts regulations and tarriffs...the uk will do the same!, its all about money!, the EU need the UK, the UK need the Eu but do not need the endless regulations and redtape!

You really do talk out of your hoop.

But this place wouldnt be the same without you, i like :aok:

[bighairyfaeleith]

What red tape exactly?

The right to maternity/paternity leave

The right to question your sacking?

I heard this on the radio this morning, I'm not pro europe or anti europe but I do think europe gets a bashing in this country that it doesn't always deserve.

[steakbake]

What red tape exactly?

The right to maternity/paternity leave

The right to question your sacking?

I heard this on the radio this morning, I'm not pro europe or anti europe but I do think europe gets a bashing in this country that it doesn't always deserve.

My own favourite is confusing the EU with the European Court of Human Rights. They are not linked and are two separate organisations. It's actually my pet piece of bellowing ignorance in amongst many others on the subject. Still, it gives me a lot of people I can look down on and pity, or better still, correct if they'll admit they're wrong.

If folk don't like that, I'll see them in Strasbourg (while they'll turn up in Brussells).

[Pete]

But not until 2017 :confused: They're quite happy to bring in gay marriage (both Salmond up here and Cameron) that was in no manifesto but something of actual real importance has to wait. We could have a situ where Salmond is trying to get us in as a new member on a worse deal than the one England will opt out on - another reason why he is a joker! As much as my heart likes the idea of independence it's surely not in Scotland's interests to be a new EU member on worse terms than the UK deal. The worst aspect will be if England come out and Salmond wins the independence vote next year, all Scottish goods going South will have be tariffed post 2017 until they have trade agreements in place. Anyway, could be great news. It's cost the country a fortune, been politically disastrous, sucked in a huge amount of immigrants nobody was told about and cost the country jobs in many sectors since the old Soviet bloc joined - in particular financial services in Edinburgh - had dire consequencies for our fishing and food industries and been a bonanza for human rights lawyers. I supect this is just posturing by Cameron because he's scared of UKIP.


I agree with a lot you have to say regarding border control and limits on immigration but what does gay marriage have to do with the price of cheese?

If anyone is actually unhappy about gay marriage then I wouldn't trust them with a vote for the x-factor, never mind one on an issue as important as EU membership.

[RyeSloan]

What red tape exactly?

The right to maternity/paternity leave

The right to question your sacking?

I heard this on the radio this morning, I'm not pro europe or anti europe but I do think europe gets a bashing in this country that it doesn't always deserve.


What red tape? The same red tape that the EU themselves have admitted is far to burdensome on business… see here for a mere snippet of their admission of these burdens: http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/sme/business-environment/administrative-burdens/

Or here for a good summary of just how many extra laws the EU generates in the UK: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/8067510/Up-to-half-of-British-laws-come-from-Europe-House-of-Commons-Library-claims.html

The EU gets a bashing because it's massively inefficient, non democratic and has ended up a long long way from the 'common market' that was the driving force for it's creation. In fact you could say that this is the source for a lot of the main gripes...that despite a huge volume of directives etc it has failed to implement a level playing field for trade across the EU and has continued with the huge waste of money that is the CAP.

Don't get me wrong, I like the idea of a free trade zone that lowers barriers of entry and encourages commerce and competition between European countries and the EU has gone some way to providing this for it's member states, you just have to wonder if it's been worth the cost and the continued upheaval that surround the EU and the Euro and if there wasn’t a cheaper and smarter way.

[yeezus.]

I wonder if Ed Miliband and Labour are going to dither in the issue of the EU the way they have done on the deficit/economy...

[Beefster]

I wonder if Ed Miliband and Labour are going to dither in the issue of the EU the way they have done on the deficit/economy...

They've been fairly clear. No referendum.

[lucky]

I wonder if Ed Miliband and Labour are going to dither in the issue of the EU the way they have done on the deficit/economy...

Are you trying for same attention as UKIPFalkirk? The Labour party have made their position crystal clear on this. Now can anyone tell me if the SNP have made a statement on their position in 2017? Cos with 23% and dropping in the polls they better do quickly.

[Hibbyradge]

I wonder if Ed Miliband and Labour are going to dither in the issue of the EU the way they have done on the deficit/economy...

lol

[Big Ed]

I wonder if Ed Miliband and Labour are going to dither in the issue of the EU the way they have done on the deficit/economy...

The first opinion poll taken entirely after Cameron's Referendum speech: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/01/25/update-labour-lead-10/

I would have thought that there would have been a bounce after his announcement; this poll suggests otherwise.

Of course it is early yet, but the notion that Labour will be reeling from Cameron's latest masterstroke appears to be unfounded.

[LeighLoyal]

The first opinion poll taken entirely after Cameron's Referendum speech: http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/01/25/update-labour-lead-10/

I would have thought that there would have been a bounce after his announcement; this poll suggests otherwise.

Of course it is early yet, but the notion that Labour will be reeling from Cameron's latest masterstroke appears to be unfounded.


Yet a solid 65% want out of Europe, or at least to have it as a trading agreement and nothing else which is my position. Just shows Labour sheep are brainless.

[Twa Cairpets]

Why cant you think of anything to say on your own...probably not...so do you just follow the leader

I'm clearly in awe of your insight, hence the reason for me looking forward to your contribution.


Indeed but the view from afar as you say is usually right..not always but usually when i know what im talking about.
You obviously dont have a view yourself or you wouldnt need someone else to comment for you or would you, or is it just the same old case...inward looking into a goldfish bowl like image of Scotland?...incidentally...just like Europe!

Oh i do hope the weather isnt too cold there for you...im just going to sign off and go and sit on my Balcony with late breakfast in the 20c winter sunshine!!..have a good day

Why do you appear to think that you living in HK gives you special insight into the domestic and European political situation. I travel a lot in Europe with my work, and my view is that the EU is, on balance a good thing - not everything, not all the time, but on balance it is better to be in it than not.

I also have to say that I'm not entirely convinced that you do, in reality, know what you're talking about.


Playing the politics of the Socialist Left! and the Negative people...You really think the UK could not cope outside the EU?...very misguided!!, there are companies and people would invest in the UK including Scotland right now!...from Asia if it were not part of the EU gravy train!...because they know the uk has always had a different work ethic from Europe and the end result is manufacturing and alot of employment etc..., what they do not need is endless redtape and regulations that do not concern them.

The UK can easily stand on its own 2 feet outside the EU! if the EU puts regulations and tarriffs...the uk will do the same!, its all about money!, the EU need the UK, the UK need the Eu but do not need the endless regulations and redtape!

Vintage HKHibby
9 exclamation points
6 ellipsis'
All in a brief couple of paragraphs that are slightly manic soundbite.

It may only be me, but I cant help but read your posts in the voice of the Dry-cleaner owner from Family Guy. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tt61cyGlnyM)

[Big Ed]

Yet a solid 65% want out of Europe, or at least to have it as a trading agreement and nothing else which is my position. Just shows Labour sheep are brainless.

Your figure may be accurate, but what it doesn't indicate, is how many people are bothered enough to make it the issue that will determine how they vote at the next election.

Prior to the announcement, Labour held a ten point lead in most of the polls; post announcement and there has been no change.

If the results of the latest poll are consistent, then it may be that Labour have called it right.

[Beefster]

Your figure may be accurate, but what it doesn't indicate, is how many people are bothered enough to make it the issue that will determine how they vote at the next election.

Prior to the announcement, Labour held a ten point lead in most of the polls; post announcement and there has been no change.

If the results of the latest poll are consistent, then it may be that Labour have called it right.

I think the announcement was as much about stopping the drift to UKIP than winning folk from Labour. Irrespective of polls, Labour made an absolute dog's breakfast of their position this week.

[LeighLoyal]

Your figure may be accurate, but what it doesn't indicate, is how many people are bothered enough to make it the issue that will determine how they vote at the next election.

Prior to the announcement, Labour held a ten point lead in most of the polls; post announcement and there has been no change.

If the results of the latest poll are consistent, then it may be that Labour have called it right.


According polls people are bothered by the EU: the unsustainable migration, pressure on services, housing, the £53m a day that membership costs, the useless convention on human rights that is a charter for abuse and greedy lawyers, the odious Euro and what it's costing us to prop up a currency we're not even in, the ridiculous subsidies that French and German farmers enjoy, and the surrender of our fishing territory... Salmond just wants to swap London for Berlin, that's the reality of an ever closer EU. It was meant to be a trading agreement, that's all it should be and if it had stayed at that we'd be in a better place.

[Big Ed]

According polls people are bothered by the EU: the unsustainable migration, pressure on services, housing, the £53m a day that membership costs, the useless convention on human rights that is a charter for abuse and greedy lawyers, the odious Euro and what it's costing us to prop up a currency we're not even in, the ridiculous subsidies that French and German farmers enjoy, and the surrender of our fishing territory... Salmond just wants to swap London for Berlin, that's the reality of an ever closer EU. It was meant to be a trading agreement, that's all it should be and if it had stayed at that we'd be in a better place.

I'm well aware of the reasons people want to leave the EU, which you have kindly outlined in detail: unfortunately it has nothing to do with my point.

People may have an opinion on EU membership, but if this poll is anything to go by, it's not the blockbuster election winner that the Conservatives hope it will be.

[RyeSloan]

I'm well aware of the reasons people want to leave the EU, which you have kindly outlined in detail: unfortunately it has nothing to do with my point.

People may have an opinion on EU membership, but if this poll is anything to go by, it's not the blockbuster election winner that the Conservatives hope it will be.

Blockbuster election winner? Where is anyone saying that?

What is does do though is shore up the conservative vote against UKIP as well as putting out a few fires in their own back benches.

It also moves the argument from being an internal one to a point of differentiation v Labour.

While I'm pretty sure the Election will largely be fought on domestic issues its also quite obvious that a large percentage of people are not happy with the way the EU has turned out nor how far Brussels power has spread beyond the concept of a common market.....

[Big Ed]

Blockbuster election winner? Where is anyone saying that?

What is does do though is shore up the conservative vote against UKIP as well as putting out a few fires in their own back benches.

It also moves the argument from being an internal one to a point of differentiation v Labour.

While I'm pretty sure the Election will largely be fought on domestic issues its also quite obvious that a large percentage of people are not happy with the way the EU has turned out nor how far Brussels power has spread beyond the concept of a common market.....

So let’s say the Tories win power again and have a referendum. Bill Cash, Jacob Rees Mogg et al are ready to get us out of the EU and so is Nigel Farage and UKIP. What about Dave?

He has already stated that he’ll vote to stay in, subject to negotiations. Given that these negotiations will take an eternity, that means he’s voting against those who see a referendum as the way out (how many people are that fussy about a referendum when they favour the status quo?)

Labour have stated that they are not in favour of a referendum. Unless that position gets particularly uncomfortable, they’ll be able to rally round that: meanwhile the Tory right will be straining at the leash to get at Cameron because he’ll be at the head of the In campaign.
Meanwhile UKIP will re-emerge with Farage breathing down Cameron’s neck at every opportunity.

Other than in the short term, IMO it won’t put out any backbench fires and it won’t spike UKIP.

[hibsbollah]

So let’s say the Tories win power again and have a referendum. Bill Cash, Jacob Rees Mogg et al are ready to get us out of the EU and so is Nigel Farage and UKIP. What about Dave?

He has already stated that he’ll vote to stay in, subject to negotiations. Given that these negotiations will take an eternity, that means he’s voting against those who see a referendum as the way out (how many people are that fussy about a referendum when they favour the status quo?)

Labour have stated that they are not in favour of a referendum. Unless that position gets particularly uncomfortable, they’ll be able to rally round that: meanwhile the Tory right will be straining at the leash to get at Cameron because he’ll be at the head of the In campaign.
Meanwhile UKIP will re-emerge with Farage breathing down Cameron’s neck at every opportunity.

Other than in the short term, IMO it won’t put out any backbench fires and it won’t spike UKIP.

I'm sure a short term spike of UKIP would suit Dave and Gideon just fine. The backbenchers are absolutely loving it so im not sure youre right about that either, theyve been placated.

[Big Ed]

I'm sure a short term spike of UKIP would suit Dave and Gideon just fine. The backbenchers are absolutely loving it so im not sure youre right about that either, theyve been placated.

EU membership is the most divisive topic within the Conservative Party. A large section of the Party want out, never mind re-negotiation of the terms. The Tory press are also vehemently anti-Europe too, yet the leader of the party is going to lead the campaign to stay in.

How long this détente lasts could be crucial: my view is not that long.

[yeezus.]

Are you trying for same attention as UKIPFalkirk? The Labour party have made their position crystal clear on this. Now can anyone tell me if the SNP have made a statement on their position in 2017? Cos with 23% and dropping in the polls they better do quickly.

I want to stay in the EU and vote Labour... so no I'm not trying for the same attention as him thanks.

[yeezus.]

They've been fairly clear. No referendum.

I think public pressure will grow and they may change before the next election.

[marinello59]

I think public pressure will grow and they may change before the next election.

It won't and they won't.

[yeezus.]

It won't and they won't.

:cb mark my words.

[RyeSloan]

EU membership is the most divisive topic within the Conservative Party. A large section of the Party want out, never mind re-negotiation of the terms. The Tory press are also vehemently anti-Europe too, yet the leader of the party is going to lead the campaign to stay in.

How long this détente lasts could be crucial: my view is not that long.

But he's kicked that can well down the road.

A lot can change between now and 2017 in the meantime he has UKIP on the back foot, his back benches on side and a clear dividing line between him and Labour.

Not saying I agree with his actions or motives just that I think he's made a reasonably smart move here.

[Big Ed]

But he's kicked that can well down the road.

A lot can change between now and 2017 in the meantime he has UKIP on the back foot, his back benches on side and a clear dividing line between him and Labour.

Not saying I agree with his actions or motives just that I think he's made a reasonably smart move here.

I don’t disagree with most of that, but I think the real problems will surface long before 2017.

Cameron voted against a referendum when an amendment was brought by Tory backbenchers last October. Parliamentary Private Secretaries who supported the vote lost their jobs. Fast forward to last week and the Tory right have every reason to think that they have won the argument.

What are the prospects of this emboldened faction not baring their teeth again, when they feel the the PM is “Off Message”?

It is almost a mirror image of the problems Harold Wilson had with the left wing of the Labour Party in 1975, when he didn’t want to have a referendum, but had one anyway. Within a decade he had gone, the SDP had formed and Labour would be out of power for a generation.

I’m not so sure he has kicked the can down the road: more likely he has stubbed his toe on it.