Scotland team, Levein and Independence

[Spike Mandela]

Could Levein be the best thing that happened to the Unionist parties and their 'No to Independence' vote?

A successful Scotland team winning games, playing attractive football and winging it's way to Rio for the World Cup in 2014 would see an upsurge in Nationalism and would help Alex Salmond's cause no end.

The feelgood factor from sport evidenced with the Olympics and previous successful times for the national team definitely has an effect on the public psyche and could play a major part in our destiny.

What do you think?

[yeezus.]

Not a bad theory.

It's obvious that Salmond wanted the referendum in 2014 to coincide with the Commonwealth games and possibly Scotland's World Cup campaign.

I've gone from being pro-independence to not sure.

[Big Ed]

Could Levein be the best thing that happened to the Unionist parties and their 'No to Independence' vote?

A successful Scotland team winning games, playing attractive football and winging it's way to Rio for the World Cup in 2014 would see an upsurge in Nationalism and would help Alex Salmond's cause no end.

The feelgood factor from sport evidenced with the Olympics and previous successful times for the national team definitely has an effect on the public psyche and could play a major part in our destiny.

What do you think?

I have never understood this link between sporting prowess and the political sway that it carries.

If people cannot decide what is best for them through political arguement and public discourse, then we may as well build the frontier with England out of lego.

[hibsbollah]

You often hear about this link between sporting success and increased political support for nationalist parties or incumbent governments because of a feel good factor...i think its a bit of a myth.

Ive heard it said more than once that Harold Wilson won the 1966 election on the wave of English football world cup euphoria 'you only win world cups with a Labour Govt' he apparently said. This ignores the fact the election was in March, 4 months before the final :greengrin

The independence referendum in 79 was said to have 'failed' (51% Yes, 48% No but 63% turnout insufficient for 'real' victory) partly because of the Argentina '78 humilation. Cant see it myself; Support for independence was at its height in the early 70s when our national team wasnt any great shakes, either.

[NAE NOOKIE]

Its certainly a theory that the press and politicians subscribe to.

A few weeks ago that bastion of middle of the road journalism The Mail on Sunday was proclaiming with glee that Team GBs success at the Olympics had scuppered the SNP's drive for "the break up of the UK"

I agree with Big Ed .... If your political opinion or even feelings of patriotism are linked to success, or the lack of it, on the sports field you shouldnt be allowed to bloody vote in the first place.

[Beefster]

Could Levein be the best thing that happened to the Unionist parties and their 'No to Independence' vote?

A successful Scotland team winning games, playing attractive football and winging it's way to Rio for the World Cup in 2014 would see an upsurge in Nationalism and would help Alex Salmond's cause no end.

The feelgood factor from sport evidenced with the Olympics and previous successful times for the national team definitely has an effect on the public psyche and could play a major part in our destiny.

What do you think?

Anyone who votes on the basis of sporting achievement shouldn't be allowed outside unaccompanied, never mind allowed to vote.

[hibsbollah]

Its certainly a theory that the press and politicians subscribe to.

A few weeks ago that bastion of middle of the road journalism The Mail on Sunday was proclaiming with glee that Team GBs success at the Olympics had scuppered the SNP's drive for "the break up of the UK"

I agree with Big Ed .... If your political opinion or even feelings of patriotism are linked to success, or the lack of it, on the sports field you shouldnt be allowed to bloody vote in the first place.

Interesting link in this article
http://m.guardian.co.uk/ms/p/gnm/op/spz1xHBCx7rt0XkxrBkdEvQ/view.m?id=15&gid=commentisfree/2012/aug/14/olympics-scottish-independence&cat=politics

[steakbake]

You often hear about this link between sporting success and increased political support for nationalist parties or incumbent governments because of a feel good factor...i think its a bit of a myth.

Ive heard it said more than once that Harold Wilson won the 1966 election on the wave of English football world cup euphoria 'you only win world cups with a Labour Govt' he apparently said. This ignores the fact the election was in March, 4 months before the final :greengrin

The independence referendum in 79 was said to have 'failed' (51% Yes, 48% No but 63% turnout insufficient for 'real' victory) partly because of the Argentina '78 humilation. Cant see it myself; Support for independence was at its height in the early 70s when our national team wasnt any great shakes, either.

Hi - all good points but just a factual point: it was a devolution referendum in 79. Good thing it wasn't carried or we would have ended up with even more of a glorified parish council than we've got just now. Having said that, as Tam Dalziel observed and I'd agree with - devolution opens the doors to independence, so who knows where we'd be now if it was carried.

I've never been convinced that sporting achievement = political status. If that were the case then all but a few countries would even bother thinking its worth existing.

[hibsbollah]

You're quite right, it was the devolution referendum, not an independence referendum

(or 'my bad' as the kids like to say ) :agree:

[steakbake]

S'all good innit?

[NAE NOOKIE]

Interesting link in this article
http://m.guardian.co.uk/ms/p/gnm/op/spz1xHBCx7rt0XkxrBkdEvQ/view.m?id=15&gid=commentisfree/2012/aug/14/olympics-scottish-independence&cat=politics

Cheers for that ... interesting reading.

[heretoday]

It's a theory but I like to think that people intending to vote are not swayed by such trivia and are capable of weighing up the real issues.

Also don't forget the phenomenon of short attention span that afflicts this media-led kingdom.

In a few weeks the Olympic/Paralympic fervor will be as dead as yesterday's Daily Mail.

[One Day Soon]

An interesting OP but ultimately irrelevant I think. Salmond is going to lose the refeendum - probably quite badly. Especially if he doesn't get a second question which it now looks like he won't.

What matters now is whether he loses it badly enough to have to stand down. If not then its business as usual. If he has to go the question becomes whether Sturgeon can be an effective leader.

My money is on a pretty bad defeat in 2014, Salmond then stepping down either just before or immediately after the next Scottish Parliament elections. Either way I think Johann Lamont becomes the next elected Scottish First Minister of either a Labour minority or coalition administration. That prospect becomes a lot stronger in the previously incredible - but increasingly plausible - scenario that Ed Miliband wins the next UK election.

I'd like to know if there's a bookie that would give odds on a Miliband/Lamont double and what those odds would be.

[Eyrie]

I don't believe anyone would vote for independence for the sole reason that Scotland win the World Cup in Brazil, or indeed vote against it on the basis that Levein has taken us to the bottom of our group.

But I do think it can have a subconscious influence, a general feeling of pride in Scotland in the former case and of doubt in the the latter. That won't directly affect how someone votes, but it will make them more amenable to arguments for that side on more substantial matters such as currency or international influence.

[yeezus.]

I'm sick fed up of Rangers fans supporting the Union solely on the basis that they are huns.

Down this way of the country you are either a Celtic fan (and therefore Republican) or Rangers fan (and therefore loyalist). It's sdad but true that people vote the way they do because of their football team.

[Sir David Gray]

Its certainly a theory that the press and politicians subscribe to.

A few weeks ago that bastion of middle of the road journalism The Mail on Sunday was proclaiming with glee that Team GBs success at the Olympics had scuppered the SNP's drive for "the break up of the UK"

I agree with Big Ed .... If your political opinion or even feelings of patriotism are linked to success, or the lack of it, on the sports field you shouldnt be allowed to bloody vote in the first place.

I agree with that to an extent and understand what you're saying but I think it can have an effect.

Just as an example, people are seeing all of the success that Britain has had in the Olympics and Paralympics this summer and I think people up here will be looking at the Scots who have won medals and thinking about whether they would have been so successful if they were competing for an independent Scottish nation, without the UK funding and facilities.

[Hibrandenburg]

Think that sporting success is very unlikely to actually sway someone's decision on independance or not. However I believe it could be used as a rallying call to create a wave of interest and encourage those who would normally not bother voting to then get of their ***** and do so. Such an effect could sway the poll either way.

[steakbake]

I agree with that to an extent and understand what you're saying but I think it can have an effect.

Just as an example, people are seeing all of the success that Britain has had in the Olympics and Paralympics this summer and I think people up here will be looking at the Scots who have won medals and thinking about whether they would have been so successful if they were competing for an independent Scottish nation, without the UK funding and facilities.

But are they? I think some politicians are trying to make what they can out of it. However, really? What's the difference between recognising the facilities and counting the medals?

[NAE NOOKIE]

I agree with that to an extent and understand what you're saying but I think it can have an effect.

Just as an example, people are seeing all of the success that Britain has had in the Olympics and Paralympics this summer and I think people up here will be looking at the Scots who have won medals and thinking about whether they would have been so successful if they were competing for an independent Scottish nation, without the UK funding and facilities.

I agree it can have an affect ,,, certainly the way politicians grasp onto sporting success and like to be associated with it backs up that point of view.

But theres another way to look at your second paragraph. Its been widely touted, especially by the right wing press, that without the superb UK facilities available to Scottish athletes a lot of them may not have been 'at the races' so to speak. The point being made about the likes of Chris Hoy training in Manchester and many others training down south where facilities are better.

But theres the rub .... why is there such a lack of decent facilities in Scotland? Because as part of the UK the money has to be spent on facilities nearest the biggest centres of population .. which means little UK government money being spent on world class facilities in Scotland.

When the Commonwealth Games were in Manchester they built a brand new stadium. In Glasgow they will use Hampden with no improvement to the stadium left to benefit it when the games are over. The Olympic stadium has had piles of public / lottery money spent on it, but without a football club to take it over it will be a huge white Elephant. Whereas a revamped Hampden would already have a use as a tried and tested stadium.

Anyway .... as the TV advert for something I cant remember said .... "Its not the colour you leave with that matters ..its the colour you arrive in"

[Glory Lurker]

Either way I think Johann Lamont becomes the next elected Scottish First Minister of either a Labour minority or coalition administration. That prospect becomes a lot stronger in the previously incredible - but increasingly plausible - scenario that Ed Miliband wins the next UK election.

I'd like to know if there's a bookie that would give odds on a Miliband/Lamont double and what those odds would be.

So you're saying that not only will we turn our backs on rejuvenating the country through independence, but we'll follow that up in double-quick time with the election of Lamont as FM? What depressants are you unionists planning on putting in the water between now and 2014?:greengrin

[One Day Soon]

So you're saying that not only will we turn our backs on rejuvenating the country through independence, but we'll follow that up in double-quick time with the election of Lamont as FM? What depressants are you unionists planning on putting in the water between now and 2014?:greengrin

Yep, that's what I think will happen.

The economy is in pretty dire straits and most people's number one concern is their job, the roof over their heads and their children's future. In that context Alex Salmond's SNP Government appears to be offering a primary reply of independence and gay marriage. These I would suggest - regardless of their merits - are not what most voters are fretting about. Salmond has no choice but to bash on with his independence referendum even though it is patently obvious that an overwhelming majority of Scots will not only vote no but don't think now is really the time to be focussing on that issue. In other words, the policy he has to campaign on is the policy most people don't want.

I think he and the SNP will pay a hefty price for that in the Referendum and in consequence he will probably have to go, or stay on and make his party even more unpopular. The saying is that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them. In my view both Cameron and Salmond are heading speedily down that road. Remarkably, Miliband and Lamont could be ushered into office by the two current government leaders.

[Hainan Hibs]

Lamont as FM

:faf: :faf: :faf: :faf: :faf: :faf: :faf: :faf: :faf:

[One Day Soon]

Lamont as FM

:faf: :faf: :faf: :faf: :faf: :faf: :faf: :faf: :faf:


Seems unlikely doesn't it?

But you need to start talking to ordinary punters instead of party members Hainan, they don't like Salmond and they don't like what his Government is doing. People worried about jobs and the economy think a government focussed on independence and gay marriage isn't really listening.

[hibsbollah]

For what its worth, Mrs Bollah was at an event with Lamont a few months ago. She didnt vote Labour last time (the wife, not Lamont :greengrin), and is a classic floating voter, but she said was an excellent speaker to the audience and was really good at that politician's vital skill of making you feel like youre the only person in the room when talking face to face.

Coming across well on a ten second TV snippet might be harder though.