The downsides of the glorious revolution

[Hibbyradge]

I'm starting this thread in the hope that we can have a serious discussion about the possible effect on Scottish football should the Old Firm leave the SPL.

Loads of folk desperately want this to happen and that's a fair enough position, but I don't think the consequences for those of us who remain have been robustly examined yet.

It may well be a wonderful outcome for everyone (presumably including the OF), but we really should be aware of the potential disadvantages too. I hope we can do so without this thread deteriorating into a personal slagging match. Just because someone can see a potential problem, doesn't mean they are OF sympathisers or apologists.

So, before I list some of the downsides that I can predict, I'd better detail what I think popular wisdom believes as the potential benefits of the OF leaving.

Most oft repeated is the idea that a competitive league will form and that several clubs will have a chance of winning the championship and the cups every year, instead of just two.

As a result, a considerable number fans of all these clubs who don't currently go to games, will be inspired to do so.

The TV and sponsorship monies which will leave to follow Rantic won't matter much because the league will be so exciting/entertaining/competitive, companies will be keen to associate themselves with it so the actual loss of revenue won't be significant.

Any lack of a TV deal means we can get back to 3.00 kick offs which will, in turn, further increase attendances.

We'll be free of bigotry, apart from some of the more ignorant diet huns and the other idiots around the country who "dinnae like fenians".

Before I go on, have I missed any of the predicted benefits?

[ancient hibee]

SFL 1,2 and 3 usually have very competetive leagues.Average crowds?Less than 1000 in 2 and 3.

[JeMeSouviens]

Just because folk want it doesn't make it in any way likely to happen. If the Huns are liquidated we can choose to keep newHuns out of the SPL but in all likelihood they will be backin 3 years. Celtic have nowhere else to go.

Unless there is a radical realignment of European football (possible in 2014 when UEFA's deal with the G14 runs out) we are stuck with them.

[HibbyAndy]

Surely to god 3pm kick offs on a Saturday will entice more fans out the woodwork?..Lapsed supporters whatever, I know quite a few hibs fans that would entertain the idea of 3 pm KO's and return to the holy grail.


The old squirm can GTF and take there vile secratarian pish with them anaw.

[HibeeMG]

In a Dragon's Den style - let me tell you where I am.

I'd much rather watch a poor/young but competitive Hibs in a ***** league than watch a totally uncompetitive, overpaid/distinctly average Hibs side in an unfair league.

[snooky]

Surely to god 3pm kick offs on a Saturday will entice more fans out the woodwork?..Lapsed supporters whatever, I know quite a few hibs fans that would entertain the idea of 3 pm KO's and return to the holy grail.


The old squirm can GTF and take there vile secratarian pish with them anaw.

Football attendance, to a lot of fans, is/was a habit. In the days of the Tornados I knew exactly where I'd be every second Saturday at 3pm - I didn't have to plan anything. Home-away-home-away-etc.
Fast forward 30-40yrs. Where will I be on any given Saturday? I don't know, is there a game at ER? Are we playing on the Sunday?
Result - habit long broken.

So the bad side IMO is, I've already kicked the habit. Why would I want to start up again? :wink:

[hibsbollah]

The OP has made his position (that we wont survive without the old firm) clear on this question lots of times previously. Most of the arguments on both sides have been recycled ad infinitum. Personally i want them gone, i THINK we can survive financially, but crucially, no-one really knows if we can or not. Its very much like the scottish independence question; whether divorce is financially beneficial or detrimental in the long run is impossible to know, subject as it is to lots of imponderables, so most people base their opinion on gut instinct.

And my gut instinct is they can get to ****.

[snooky]

The OP has made his position (that we wont survive without the old firm) clear on this question lots of times previously. Most of the arguments on both sides have been recycled ad infinitum. Personally i want them gone, i THINK we can survive financially, but crucially, no-one really knows if we can or not. Its very much like the scottish independence question; whether divorce is financially beneficial or detrimental in the long run is impossible to know, subject as it is to lots of imponderables, so most people base their opinion on gut instinct.

And my gut instinct is they can get to ****.

Don't think the OP has stated his position other than to say that the whole scenerio of no OF has not been properly thought through.
He asks if any of us can put forward any negatives.
That was my take on his post. :hmmm:

[scuttle]

In a Dragon's Den style - let me tell you where I am.

I'd much rather watch a poor/young but competitive Hibs in a ***** league than watch a totally uncompetitive, overpaid/distinctly average Hibs side in an unfair league.

Old firm......Youre fired

[Mikey]

I reckon I can come up with a few good reasons for keeping them, but considering the abuse I took the other day for suggesting people support Hibs, I can only imagine the grief I'll get for putting forward an argument for keeping the OF :greengrin

I'll away and see if I can furnish myself with some facts before I try. They'll be real facts, not FACTS I made up :greengrin

Later...... :wink:

[Twa Cairpets]

Whatever happens, football will exist because it's a great game.

People will want to watch it, and the correct level for the game will be found.

Do people think players will stop striving to become top level footballers? Ultimately, they'll just be paid less than down south. As thats the case anyway, no big change - we're hardly replete with Scottish internationals in the non-OF SPL are we.

There may be some other casualties, but it'll pull through

[Mikey]

My quest for facts has hit a stumbling block already :greengrin

Looking at the latest set of accounts (HERE (http://www.hibs.net/showthread.php?192245-****Hibs-Accounts-To-31st-July-2010-See-Them-Here****)), is there a figure in there that shows how much the club took in in gate money last season? That would be ST's, walk ups and away fans.

[NAE NOOKIE]

The funny thing is that I dont really think that most fans would actually want the OF out of Scotland if it wasnt for the fact that they only think of there own self interest and also make no secret of the fact that they want out.

There is no doubt that the OF generate interest in Scottish football ( even if it is the same sort of interest as watching a car crash ) and that as a result of that TV are more interested than they perhaps would be.

That is the downside of losing them as far as I can see.

But at the end of the day their raging self interest has turned Scottish football into a two horse bore fest as far as competition is concerned and if we cant take this opportunity to reel them in, then it will always be that way.


So yes .... There may well be a down side to losing them ( which I dont think we will ) but in the balance of things it may just be worth it.

[Mikey]

I think reeling them in is the answer, not removing them altogether.

[Eyrie]

Even reeling them in, eg by a fairer split of the TV money, will still leave an imbalance due to the size of their supporter base. In an ideal world they'd both be a similar size to ourselves, Aberdeen, Hearts and a single team in Dundee but that will never happen.

Scottish football would survive without them. It would operate at a reduced level due to the much reduced TV money, but people would still support their team. I'm of the opinion that the lower standard of player which we'd see would offset the more competitive league and attendances would be at current levels.

The other question is where they go to. If they were playing in an Atlantic League then they would attempt to market themselves as Scotland's representatives and that may mean that some of their glory hunting fans starting following their local team as well, which would be of benefit to the likes of Dunfermline or St Mirren.

[Beefster]

Surely to god 3pm kick offs on a Saturday will entice more fans out the woodwork?..Lapsed supporters whatever, I know quite a few hibs fans that would entertain the idea of 3 pm KO's and return to the holy grail.


The old squirm can GTF and take there vile secratarian pish with them anaw.

Most of our home games are at 3pm on a Saturday.

[bingo70]

Getting rid of them is a massive gamble, lots of 'ifs'...'hopes' and 'maybes' but the alternative is the status quo which isn't working anyway so imo we need to gamble as we've nothing to lose but we've a hell of a lot to gain.

In answer to the op, the downside will be the short term quality will be hit and fans could be driven to premiership even more so than they are now, its a risk we've got to take though.

[Hibbyradge]

The OP has made his position (that we wont survive without the old firm) clear on this question lots of times previously. Most of the arguments on both sides have been recycled ad infinitum. Personally i want them gone, i THINK we can survive financially, but crucially, no-one really knows if we can or not. Its very much like the scottish independence question; whether divorce is financially beneficial or detrimental in the long run is impossible to know, subject as it is to lots of imponderables, so most people base their opinion on gut instinct.

And my gut instinct is they can get to ****.

Have I?

I don't think you understood my words.

[hibsbollah]

Have I?

I don't think you understood my words.

Youve posted previously on this subject. You think the old firm staying is vital to the league's continued viability IIRC.

[Hibbyradge]

Youve posted previously on this subject. You think the old firm staying is vital to the league's continued viability IIRC.

You dont RC.

Why not comment on my post?

Have I missed any perceived benefits of them leaving?

[woody47]

I think what a lot of people forget is that the OF were playing to crowds that were about half of what they get now. So the question should be - What has made the crowds bigger for them but less for most others? Other than glory seekers I fail to see what it is.
Therefore, using that logic, without them we would then see teams like us, dons, killie, motherwell, yams, dundee utd in with a real chance of winning the league. The fans would then start returning, revenue would be up, the league would be more competative and therefore we could end up far stronger.

[hibsbollah]

You dont RC.

Why not comment on my post?

Have I missed any perceived benefits of them leaving?

I did comment on it, although i did digress a bit.

You covered the main benefits i can think of. All massive benefits which can be summed up as creating competition. The lifeblood of sport. Without genuine competition the whole exercise of sport is pointless.

[Ozyhibby]

The old firm will still be with us. They have nowhere else to go. All that's happening is a change in the relationship.

[Jonnyboy]

Like it or lump it I reckon we are stuck with them and so the main thrust of the other ten clubs should be to ensure a fairer distribution of the wealth. For example home gates split 60/40 in favour of the home team. Yes, Hibs would lose out for some fixtures but gain a great deal from others

[Hibbyradge]

The old firm will still be with us. They have nowhere else to go. All that's happening is a change in the relationship.


Like it or lump it I reckon we are stuck with them and so the main thrust of the other ten clubs should be to ensure a fairer distribution of the wealth. For example home gates split 60/40 in favour of the home team. Yes, Hibs would lose out for some fixtures but gain a great deal from others

Maybe, but this a theoretical thread.

Jeez! :wink:

[Jonnyboy]

Maybe, but this a theoretical thread.

Jeez! :wink:

So's my answer :wink:

[Jones28]

I see connections with the Old Firm/SPL and England/Scotland.

We're not sure what will happen when/if they break apart. Everyone is interested in what happens.

Deep down we all hope they both would be better without "them" :wink:

As far as Sky are concerned, it should be a challenge to the other teams in the SPL. Look at what Killie and Dundee Utd are doing this season in particular. Turning over both halves of the Old Firm and Killie won a trophy in the process. It's excellent! We don't need the Old Firm, Sky do. For all the "supporters" all over the country to view the teams they've loved since they were all kids blah blah blah.

SKY AND OLD FIRM GTF :aok:

[Hibrandenburg]

In a Dragon's Den style - let me tell you where I am.

I'd much rather watch a poor/young but competitive Hibs in a ***** league than watch a totally uncompetitive, overpaid/distinctly average Hibs side in an unfair league.
If the SPL decide to continue this heavily biased and discriminatory approach in favour of the Old Firm then I'm out. Regardless of the financial aspects involved.

[Eyrie]

Like it or lump it I reckon we are stuck with them and so the main thrust of the other ten clubs should be to ensure a fairer distribution of the wealth. For example home gates split 60/40 in favour of the home team. Yes, Hibs would lose out for some fixtures but gain a great deal from others
We'd lose a lot more than we gain, since we have better attendances than most of the SPL.

Someone suggested a 90:10 split a couple of weeks back, which strikes me as a fairer allocation.

[Jonnyboy]

We'd lose a lot more than we gain, since we have better attendances than most of the SPL.

Someone suggested a 90:10 split a couple of weeks back, which strikes me as a fairer allocation.

Fair point Eyrie. Maybe 60/40 is too steep. I just want to get away from the imbalance of the OF keeping all their gate receipts :greengrin

[IWasThere2016]

Youve posted previously on this subject. You think the old firm staying is vital to the league's continued viability IIRC.

I'm sure too :wink:

The game will die with them. We need change, a competitive league withoot the bigotry - yes please.

[Mibbes Aye]

Most of our home games are at 3pm on a Saturday.

:agree:


Assuming we didn't have an OF in the league it seems reasonable to assume there would be still be some sort of TV deal for live games, not as lucrative but nevertheless important to clubs.

We would like to think we would be more competitive in an OF-free SPL, which plausibly suggests we would feature more in live games?

Which in turn means less Saturday 3pm kickoffs surely?

One other thing - I've grown very wary of punters like me who post on here, posting so-called 'common sense' reasons as to why crowds might increase if we follow a particular course of action.

That's mainly to do with the dozens (and I don't think that's overegging it) of folk, many of whom were good, straight-up, well-informed posters, who all went into a self-affirming frenzy in those heady days running up to Derek Riordan re-signing for us.

"Pay the half-million to Celtc Petrie, Deeks will add two thousand onto the home gate and it'll even itself out in no time" was almost a creed on here. We all read it in countless posts by numerous netters.

He re-signed and unless I'm gravely mistaken we didn't see that increase in crowds.

My point is, in a time where money's tight for so many people, where committing to watching Hibs regularly is impossible for an increasing number, switching KO times isn't in itself a panacea. The only way we'll maintain crowds, let alone grow them, is by success on the field and we certainly have scope to be more successful within the current set-up (it would hard to be less successful, as things stand).

Question is, can the success we could generate in an OF-free league give us a better return than achieving lesser relative success in a league that includes them, but with all the additional revenue they bring?

Don't think anyone's satisfactorily answered that yet. Our much-maligned 'board of accountants' maybe have an informed opinion though - roll on the next AGM :agree:

[Silversand]

As previously posted on other websites ...

Every other single league on planet football, from Lothian U12s boys brigade league right through to La Liga, EPL, Serie A, all somehow manage to survive without the "old firm".

Why is it that the SPL is the one & only league that cannot survive without them?

Most certainly Scottish football can survive without the bigots that have haunted our game for too long. No doubting at all that finacially things would have to change, but survive we would.

No Sky Sports deal? Fantastic - bring it on.

The only place where the financial situation would affect Scottish football would be in Europe, and yes Scottish clubs would struggle in Europe.

But with Hibs record in Europe over the last 20 odd years, I sadly don't see much of an issue there either to be honest.

[Moulin Yarns]

We'd lose a lot more than we gain, since we have better attendances than most of the SPL.

Someone suggested a 90:10 split a couple of weeks back, which strikes me as a fairer allocation.

I suggested elsewhere (the very long Rangers in Administration thread I think) that the technology is now in place to count how many supporters are there from each club, so the actual division of the gate receipts, less costs, should be possible. This would also encourage fans to attend more away games if they knew their club would benefit from their attendance.

An example:

St Mirren bring 100 fans to Easter Road at £22 a head so they have spent £2200, less costs of £400 so Hibs would give them £1800

Aberdeen bring 1000 fans at £22 a head, so the pay £22000, less costs of £400 so Hibs would give them £21600

The fanbase dictates how well you do from gate receipts (sorry St Johnstone :greengrin)

Is that too difficult to do?

[son of haggart]

My position on this, as stated to total scorn on this site and on Kickback in the late 90’s was that Hearts should leave the SPL and join the English pyramid, possibly moving to Berwick at the same time. I posted that partly because I knew it would start an argument (those were the days when there were so few posts and posters you could have some fun) and partly because I thought in the long term it was the only way for the club I love to survive. I seem to remember the OP being amongst the scorners.
I think letting the OF leave is not the best scenario – because sponsors and media money would go with them. If Scotland gains independence this may matter less, as there will be a new financial context in which some investment into the national league could be anticipated.
I would love the OF just to die and go away forever and take their sectarian blight with them. If they leave and the Union remains then I think we would need to readjust to a model something like the Conference and Ryman League in England or the Irish League, where stadiums would likely be supported by regional aid and owners would likely be local businessmen rather than internationals. – Hearts playing at Saughton and Hibs at Meadowbank perhaps. Most kids would support foreign teams because that would be the dominant fare in the media.

Would that be a bad scenario – not for me.

[Hibbyradge]

My position on this, as stated to total scorn on this site and on Kickback in the late 90’s was that Hearts should leave the SPL and join the English pyramid, possibly moving to Berwick at the same time. I posted that partly because I knew it would start an argument (those were the days when there were so few posts and posters you could have some fun) and partly because I thought in the long term it was the only way for the club I love to survive. I seem to remember the OP being amongst the scorners.
I think letting the OF leave is not the best scenario – because sponsors and media money would go with them. If Scotland gains independence this may matter less, as there will be a new financial context in which some investment into the national league could be anticipated.
I would love the OF just to die and go away forever and take their sectarian blight with them. If they leave and the Union remains then I think we would need to readjust to a model something like the Conference and Ryman League in England or the Irish League, where stadiums would likely be supported by regional aid and owners would likely be local businessmen rather than internationals. – Hearts playing at Saughton and Hibs at Meadowbank perhaps. Most kids would support foreign teams because that would be the dominant fare in the media.

Would that be a bad scenario – not for me.

I don't remember that, scott. I'm not even sure I had even heard of Kickback in the 90's, but I guess you're more likely to remember something like that than me.

Having said that, it was a *****e idea. :greengrin :wink:

[Hibbyradge]

As previously posted on other websites ...

Every other single league on planet football, from Lothian U12s boys brigade league right through to La Liga, EPL, Serie A, all somehow manage to survive without the "old firm".

Why is it that the SPL is the one & only league that cannot survive without them?

Most certainly Scottish football can survive without the bigots that have haunted our game for too long. No doubting at all that finacially things would have to change, but survive we would.

No Sky Sports deal? Fantastic - bring it on.

The only place where the financial situation would affect Scottish football would be in Europe, and yes Scottish clubs would struggle in Europe.

But with Hibs record in Europe over the last 20 odd years, I sadly don't see much of an issue there either to be honest.


I'm certain Scottish football would survive if the OF left, but it would be a lot different, and a lot weaker.

[madabouthibs]

Don't want rid of Rantic, it wouldn't be beneficial to the SPL imo. It would be better to have it more competitive, wage caps, more youth development, a foriegn player limit, and a much better "policing" of clubs finances.

[weecounty hibby]

It is very very similar to the independence debate. Unfortunately we have a media in this country that is biased towards both the OF and the unionist parties. So what we get is the constant round of "oh we can't manage without them" etc etc because that is what the media is telling everyone. But it is only in their self interest not the interests of all.

I couldn't really care whether the OF are here are not. If they want to be part of Scottish Football they should be mindful of how the other 38 clubs operate and should be more respectful and stop whoring themselves to ANY other league and try to make our league better.

If they go then I'm certain that the league would survive and we would find our level. Let's not kid ourselves Scotland has punched above it's weight for decades. We are a small nation and have largely been competitive in Europe but it is now becoming harder. Why should we think we can compete at the top level against the English pop 50M, French pop 50m, Germans, Spanish, Italians etc with populations and resources far far greater than ours.
We should be able to compete with the smaller nations, but guess what even with the OF in our game we aren't. Both OF clubs have been knocked out of Europe by clubs from countries that they would look down their noses at. Maribor anyone?

If they stay the need to be checked back and I hope that the other ten SPL chairmen stand their ground and bring them back into line. They could be a massive influence for positive change in this country both sporting and in the community, but until they stop looking after themselves and think of the greater good that will never happen. The other ten have a chance to make this happen.

[Eyrie]

I suggested elsewhere (the very long Rangers in Administration thread I think) that the technology is now in place to count how many supporters are there from each club, so the actual division of the gate receipts, less costs, should be possible. This would also encourage fans to attend more away games if they knew their club would benefit from their attendance.

An example:

St Mirren bring 100 fans to Easter Road at £22 a head so they have spent £2200, less costs of £400 so Hibs would give them £1800

Aberdeen bring 1000 fans at £22 a head, so the pay £22000, less costs of £400 so Hibs would give them £21600

The fanbase dictates how well you do from gate receipts (sorry St Johnstone :greengrin)

Is that too difficult to do?
Yes, because teams like Kilmarnock have large attendances when the Ugly Sisters visit but this would mean that they'd see no benefit from those crowds. The clubs with smaller supporter bases or long distance travel would suffer the most and so your suggestion would result in a less competitive league.

[NAE NOOKIE]

As somebody pointed out, the OF will always be strongest because the simply take in more money at the gate. In one home match celtic have the equivalent of close on 5 Hibs games against non of opposition or hearts.

But they way they do that is by attracting supporters who other clubs should expect to be watching them.

Because of that it is not unreasonable for the other clubs to expect a fair cut of the other revenue streams available.

[snooky]

As somebody pointed out, the OF will always be strongest because the simply take in more money at the gate. In one home match celtic have the equivalent of close on 5 Hibs games against non of opposition or hearts.

But they way they do that is by attracting supporters who other clubs should expect to be watching them.

Because of that it is not unreasonable for the other clubs to expect a fair cut of the other revenue streams available.

Aye, and this wasn't helped in the past by Scotsport/Sportscene showing games featuring the OF week in week out.
Vulnerable youngests at home thought they were the only 2 teams in Scotland....nothing has changed. :grr:

[lucky]

The Scottish league would survive without the Old Firm but you only have to look at the Welsh league to see what it would be like. If the OF played in the EPL, the papers and media would cover their games. Kids would grow up supporting two teams their local one and a one from the EPL most likely one of the ugly sisters. We need them but change has to happen to try and make it a fairer league

[bingo70]

The Scottish league would survive without the Old Firm but you only have to look at the Welsh league to see what it would be like. If the OF played in the EPL, the papers and media would cover their games. Kids would grow up supporting two teams their local one and a one from the EPL most likely one of the ugly sisters. We need them but change has to happen to try and make it a fairer league

I don't think it would go like that.

No irish or welsh team has a fan base anything like hibs, hearts, aberdeen, dundee utd, motherwell, kilmarnock plus possibly others and there's no reason to think these clubs are likely to lose fans on the back of playing in a more competitive league and winning trophies more regularly when the fan base has stayed loyal for so long with no prospect of success.

[Dashing Bob S]

In a Dragon's Den style - let me tell you where I am.

I'd much rather watch a poor/young but competitive Hibs in a ***** league than watch a totally uncompetitive, overpaid/distinctly average Hibs side in an unfair league.

In some ways I do feel genuinely sad at saying this, mainly because of my love of Hibs, but I can't see the Scottish domestic game surviving at any reasonable level long term, nor does it deserve to.

It is ran by people who clearly have no interest in promoting a viable, competitive league and who will pander to entrenched interests founded on bigotry, corruption and greed.

[joe breezy]

Patrick Thistle, Dundee, Raith Rovers, Ayr United...these teams play in competitive leagues and kick off at 3 most weeks...

There won't be bigger crowds in an old firm free league I'm afraid, just 4 less big games a season...

Winning a league without a big Glasgow club would be like winning the east of Scotland cup

I'd be quite happy if Partick Thistle could be that big Glasgow club but with plans to cut Firhill's capacity further can't see that happening soon

[snooky]

Patrick Thistle, Dundee, Raith Rovers, Ayr United...these teams play in competitive leagues and kick off at 3 most weeks...

There won't be bigger crowds in an old firm free league I'm afraid, just 4 less big games a season...

Winning a league without a big Glasgow club would be like winning the east of Scotland cupI'd be quite happy if Partick Thistle could be that big Glasgow club but with plans to cut Firhill's capacity further can't see that happening soon

Totally agree
I'd like them to stay for that very reason BUT I want a fair fight with no loaded (financial) dice

[Moulin Yarns]

Yes, because teams like Kilmarnock have large attendances when the Ugly Sisters visit but this would mean that they'd see no benefit from those crowds. The clubs with smaller supporter bases or long distance travel would suffer the most and so your suggestion would result in a less competitive league.

My point is that the talk of % gate cuts is daft when it could be split accurately by attendance. That's why I referenced St J.