PDA

View Full Version : Now is the time...



joe_hfc
16-02-2012, 04:04 PM
Now is the time for serious investment in an SPL club to fill the gap left by Rangers.

Rangers' future is now in question, and there ability to be serious title contenders and a major force within the Scottish game is even more so in question. What we have is a massive gap left in Scottish football. We have a champions league spot up for grabs, and a better chance for teams outwith the OF to win domestic trophies more than ever before. Now is the time for one to buy a club, invest heavily and secure that champions league spot - essentially, take Rangers place.

With a couple of successive seasons qualifying for the champions league, tv revenue would be up, fan base would swell. We would be able to support the heavy initial investment made to get us to that position.

...................Then again, it could go t!ts up and we could go bust.

The_Exile
16-02-2012, 04:38 PM
Don't we only get 1 CL spot from 2013/14 as our co-efficient is utterly woeful?

Anyway we made a 900k loss last year, if we started spending crazy money we'd be off our ******* heads and end up in a worse state than them.

Irish_Steve
16-02-2012, 05:39 PM
Stuff the need for new investors - let`s go down the Rangers route and spend money we dont have and when it goes mammaries vertical, we just enter administration. Then we could look forward to all the toadying politicians saying how important hibs are to Scottish football, Scottish society, NASA and the UN - ok, I may have got carried away with the last two

joe_hfc
17-02-2012, 10:14 AM
Anyway we made a 900k loss last year, if we started spending crazy money we'd be off our ******* heads and end up in a worse state than them.

Spend now, gain later. Take the second spot. If we dont, someone else will - or Rangers will fall back in to the slot.

It's a great opportunity for a team with ambition to drive forward. Ok there is obviously risk, however not every team who takes that risk crumbles.

Part/Time Supporter
17-02-2012, 10:16 AM
Don't we only get 1 CL spot from 2013/14 as our co-efficient is utterly woeful?

Anyway we made a 900k loss last year, if we started spending crazy money we'd be off our ******* heads and end up in a worse state than them.

Correct. And it will fall even further in 2014/15 because the 2007/08 results will fall out of the calculation.

CropleyWasGod
17-02-2012, 10:20 AM
Spend now, gain later. Take the second spot. If we dont, someone else will - or Rangers will fall back in to the slot.

It's a great opportunity for a team with ambition to drive forward. Ok there is obviously risk, however not every team who takes that risk crumbles.

So glad you're not my IFA :greengrin

greenlex
17-02-2012, 10:25 AM
So glad you're not my IFA :greengrin
Just take your savings and stick it on black down the Casino. Hope that helps. :agree:

CropleyWasGod
17-02-2012, 10:28 AM
Just take your savings and stick it on black down the Casino. Hope that helps. :agree:

2-1 shot is much better odds than stickin em into Hibs :cb

joe_hfc
17-02-2012, 10:29 AM
Just take your savings and stick it on black down the Casino. Hope that helps. :agree:

Ok, maybe you're right. Maybe no investors should capitalise on the opportunity and the rest of the non OF teams can continue with their rotation of 'who gets the 3rd spot'; continue with their lack of vision and aiming to break even in a league which is continually deteriorating in quality, support and ambition.

CropleyWasGod
17-02-2012, 10:34 AM
Ok, maybe you're right. Maybe no investors should capitalise on the opportunity and the rest of the none SPL teams can continue with their rotation of 'who gets the 3rd spot'; continue with their lack of vision and aiming to break even in a league which is continually deteriorating in quality, support and ambition.

Lesson number 1 in football financing. To make a small fortune, you start off with a large one.

Football history is littered with stories of big spending ending in tears. To date, I can only think of a couple of situations where it has resulted in success, Chelsea and Blackburn. For every one of those, there is at least a Leeds, a Hearts, a Rangers and a Portsmouth.

No one is doubting that there may be an opportunity. But the Hibs model is based on incremental growth. That has happened off the park, and there are signs that it is happening on the park now as well. Anything other than that would be folly, IMO.

NYHibby
17-02-2012, 10:35 AM
Correct. And it will fall even further in 2014/15 because the 2007/08 results will fall out of the calculation.

And when that happens, Scotland's Europa League spots will drop one round from being in the playoff and 3rd qualifying rounds to being in the 3rd and 2nd qualifying rounds.

Not that there is that much money in the Europa League to start, but there is no money in the qualifying rounds. In the very near future (starting next year?), we could finish 2nd in the league and still have to make it through 3 rounds of qualifying to make it to the EL group stage.

This is a far cry from going all out to get champions league money. It seems like a Yamish thing to try.

joe_hfc
17-02-2012, 10:38 AM
Lesson number 1 in football financing. To make a small fortune, you start off with a large one.

Football history is littered with stories of big spending ending in tears. To date, I can only think of a couple of situations where it has resulted in success, Chelsea and Blackburn. For every one of those, there is at least a Leeds, a Hearts, a Rangers and a Portsmouth.

Woops type in my previous post. I meant non OF.

Yes it's all to do with TIMING. A lot of those clubs were invested heavily in at a time where there really wasnt a gap for the team to compete within. So the investment was almost artificial, as it was unsustainable. Now there IS a gap for a new force to compete to be the dominent one in the SPL. So now, the timing is right.

NAE NOOKIE
17-02-2012, 10:39 AM
As you lot tire of hearing and I never tire of saying:

This is an opportunity for the whole of Scottish football, not just Hibs, to finally break the OF duopoly, by voting in a £5,000 wage cap and £1,000 bonus cap. A smaller TV deal wont hurt the other SPL clubs if the money is divided equally and going to SPL1 and SPL2 with 14 or 16 teams each would be a good thing too, with the other clubs in a single SFL division.

The new Huns can start at the bottom of SPL2 with a 10 point deduction, switch to Summer football too and Roberts your dads brother.

Its so simple.

Hibbyradge
17-02-2012, 10:41 AM
Ok, maybe you're right. Maybe no investors should capitalise on the opportunity and the rest of the none SPL teams can continue with their rotation of 'who gets the 3rd spot'; continue with their lack of vision and aiming to break even in a league which is continually deteriorating in quality, support and ambition.

I'm impressed. You're actually serious.

Just a couple of wee questions before I commit to your plan, if I may.

1. Which gap should we try to fill? I don't see any.

2. How much will I need to invest to usurp a club which has a global fan base about 50 times the size of a team like, for example, Hibs?

CropleyWasGod
17-02-2012, 10:43 AM
Woops type in my previous post. I meant non OF.

Yes it's all to do with TIMING. A lot of those clubs were invested heavily in at a time where there really wasnt a gap for the team to compete within. So the investment was almost artificial, as it was unsustainable. Now there IS a gap for a new force to compete to be the dominent one in the SPL. So now, the timing is right.

But there WAS a gap for Leeds and Rangers in the CL. There WAS a gap for Hearts in the SPL.... until Vlad dynamited them. There WAS short-term success, with the emphasis on "short-term"

What guarantees would there be that any investment in Hibs would have anything other than short-term success? You talk about the Champions League in the same way that the Yams used to. In reality, that would be no more than one, maybe two home games in the qualifying rounds. Is that a justifiable return? And after that, what next?

joe_hfc
17-02-2012, 10:51 AM
I'm impressed. You're actually serious.

Just a couple of wee questions before I commit to work plan, if I may.

1. Which gap should we try to fill? I don't see any.

2. How much will I need to invest to usurp a club which has a global fan base about 50 times the size of a team like, for example, Hibs?

Firstly, you wouldn't be asked to invest anything but the ability to offer respectful reply to a fellow Hibs fan who shares the same forum as you.


You don't see a gap? here's a wee article:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-news/top-stories/rangers_crisis_will_soon_be_over_and_rangers_fc_wi ll_survive_1_2117659

Basically Rangers will likely fall in to the category of a 'mid table SPL' club if it survives. Unless of course they attract an substantial investment.

Jack
17-02-2012, 10:52 AM
Now is the time for someone else to make serious losses in an SPL club to fill the gap left by Rangers.

Rangers' future is now in question, and there ability to be serious title contenders and a major force within the Scottish game is even more so in question. What we have is a massive gap left in Scottish football. We have a champions league spot up for grabs [???], and a better chance for teams outwith the OF to win domestic trophies more than ever before. Now is the time for one to buy a club, lose heavily and secure that champions league spot - essentially, take Rangers place.

With a couple of successive seasons qualifying for the champions league, tv revenue would be up, fan base would swell. We would be able to support the heavy initial investment made to get us to that position.

...................Then again, it will go t!ts up and we will go bust.

Iíve fixed a few wee bit for you. :greengrin

Rangers, to give you some idea, have crowds/income four or five times the size of ours. On top of that they have avoided tax to the extent our total income over the last 10 years.

They owe the tax man the equivalent of buying every man, woman and child in Scotland a ticket for Sundays match with enough left over for a bag of chips on the way home. :greengrin

They didn't have the sustained success in Europe we would need to fund being that successful.

NYHibby
17-02-2012, 10:53 AM
This is an opportunity for the whole of Scottish football, not just Hibs, to finally break the OF duopoly, by voting in a £5,000 wage cap and £1,000 bonus cap. A smaller TV deal wont hurt the other SPL clubs if the money is divided equally and going to SPL1 and SPL2 with 14 or 16 teams each would be a good thing too, with the other clubs in a single SFL division.

Its so simple.

And illegal? Can a group of companies conspire to restrict wages? Particularly if it is done as a maximum wage rather than a salary cap.

I'm pretty sure England tried this like 50 years ago and they had to get rid of it, and labour laws are only stricter now.

Andy74
17-02-2012, 10:54 AM
Oh dear Lord.

Hibs7
17-02-2012, 10:57 AM
If I won £161m on the lottery we would not be having this discussion as PF would have money to spend and Hibs would have NO debt............................ but I didn't :-(

joe_hfc
17-02-2012, 10:57 AM
But there WAS a gap for Leeds and Rangers in the CL. There WAS a gap for Hearts in the SPL.... until Vlad dynamited them. There WAS short-term success, with the emphasis on "short-term"

What guarantees would there be that any investment in Hibs would have anything other than short-term success? You talk about the Champions League in the same way that the Yams used to. In reality, that would be no more than one, maybe two home games in the qualifying rounds. Is that a justifiable return? And after that, what next?

Im trying to stay clear of talking about Hearts as thats a different ball game all together.

Of course there would be a risk. The way I see it is:

- Invest, and at least gie yourself the opportunity to become a force within the game. investment ALONG SIDE excellent management COULD ensure a sustainable future for the club both off and on the pitch. Or, we could become Dundee.

- Don't Invest, and we we COULD be around for many years to come. However with dropping attendances, TV deals in question et cetera, are we really that sustainable at the moment? Where is the silverware? The quality football? The decent attendances or atmosphere?

I'm not saying to throw £100M in to Hibs and hope for the best. Im saying that with more than modest investment and a great top-level management team, now is a better time than ever to really have a go at moving the club forward.

CropleyWasGod
17-02-2012, 10:59 AM
Im trying to stay clear of talking about Hearts as thats a different ball game all together.

Of course there would be a risk. The way I see it is:

- Invest, and at least gie yourself the opportunity to become a force within the game. investment ALONG SIDE excellent management COULD ensure a sustainable future for the club both off and on the pitch. Or, we could become Dundee.

- Don't Invest, and we we COULD be around for many years to come. However with dropping attendances, TV deals in question et cetera, are we really that sustainable at the moment? Where is the silverware? The quality football? The decent attendances or atmosphere?

I'm not saying to throw £100M in to Hibs and hope for the best. Im saying that with more than modest investment and a great top-level management team, now is a better time than ever to really have a go at moving the club forward.

So, where are these investors? And how much are you expecting them to invest?

--------
17-02-2012, 11:01 AM
Oh dear Lord.


Amen, Andy. Amen. :rolleyes:

joe_hfc
17-02-2012, 11:03 AM
So, where are these investors? And how much are you expecting them to invest?

Invest enough to ensure that there is enough financial muscle within the club to differentiate ourselves from the rest of the SPL teams, bar Celtic, to ensure power in the transfer market and that we have opportunities going forward to exceed further in domestic competitions and achieve the financial stages of European ones.

CropleyWasGod
17-02-2012, 11:06 AM
Invest enough to ensure that there is enough financial muscle within the club to differentiate ourselves from the rest of the SPL teams, bar Celtic, to ensure power in the transfer market and that we have opportunities going forward to exceed further in domestic competitions and achieve the financial stages of European ones.

And how much is enough?

And who are the investors? How much return should they expect?

joe_hfc
17-02-2012, 11:10 AM
And how much is enough?

And who are the investors? How much return should they expect?

If you expect me to throw out a number of the top of my head - I'm not going to do it because it would be based on the little I, and I expect that most of us, know about the true running of a club from board level.

proud_and_green
17-02-2012, 12:16 PM
If you expect me to throw out a number of the top of my head - I'm not going to do it because it would be based on the little I, and I expect that most of us, know about the true running of a club from board level.

I think you have just torpedoed your own argument there!

blackpoolhibs
17-02-2012, 12:19 PM
You better keep this quiet Joe, you dont want one or two other clubs thinking the same thing. Have you thought about that, and what could happen if they do the same?

NYHibby
17-02-2012, 12:20 PM
I think you have just torpedoed your own argument there!

I think Vlad has "torpedoed" this argument.

HUTCHYHIBBY
17-02-2012, 12:27 PM
2-1 shot is much better odds than stickin em into Hibs :cb

I wish i could gamble on your roulette table! ;-)

joe_hfc
17-02-2012, 12:37 PM
You better keep this quiet Joe, you dont want one or two other clubs thinking the same thing. Have you thought about that, and what could happen if they do the same?

I'm not sure many people look on message boards for investment tips. I'd hazard a guess that there aren't many.

The_Exile
17-02-2012, 12:37 PM
There is no such thing as investing in a football club, as you don't make money back basically the club takes on more debt, that's what happens, and if someone were to chuck money at the club, say 20 million, what happens? We go and buy a few properly good players on 3 year deals? What do we do when they want to extend their contracts? Say "sorry lads, the moneys ran out, see ya"? and then go out and buy a couple of Lee Powers and Paul Tosh's and be back to square 1?

Buying on field success doesn't make you a big club, it makes you a company with no future.

joe_hfc
17-02-2012, 12:41 PM
I think Vlad has "torpedoed" this argument.

My argument inst 'torpedod'. It's not an in depth financial analysis in to its viability. Its a thought, an opinion.


The situation with hears may blind you somewhat to believe that any investment is bad - however touching up on a previous point I have made; investment + excellent top level = higher chance for sustainable development. Investment + poor top level management team = lower chance for sustainable development.

We have a good fan base and an excellent infrastructure. I'd have thought that we would be one of the more attractive clubs in Scotland to invest in at this moment in time.

blackpoolhibs
17-02-2012, 12:45 PM
I'm not sure many people look on message boards for investment tips. I'd hazard a guess that there aren't many.

Thats true, so i suppose it will be fine. Hopefully nobody else will have similar thoughts?

CropleyWasGod
17-02-2012, 12:57 PM
If you expect me to throw out a number of the top of my head - I'm not going to do it because it would be based on the little I, and I expect that most of us, know about the true running of a club from board level.

... you would be surprised at how many of us do, which is why your theory is being questioned.

Again, who are these investors, and what return would they get?

CropleyWasGod
17-02-2012, 12:58 PM
I wish i could gamble on your roulette table! ;-)

With respect, he did say "stick it on black" :greengrin

HUTCHYHIBBY
17-02-2012, 01:46 PM
With respect, he did say "stick it on black" :greengrin

I believe the odds on such an outcome is 18/19, so, 2/1 is great value!

CropleyWasGod
17-02-2012, 01:50 PM
I believe the odds on such an outcome is 18/19, so, 2/1 is great value!

This is why I never go to casinos:greengrin

I thought half the numbers were red, and half black?

Haymaker
17-02-2012, 01:54 PM
Who, in their right mind, would buy or invest in an SPL club?

CropleyWasGod
17-02-2012, 01:54 PM
Who, in their right mind, would buy or invest in an SPL club?

An asset stripper? :greengrin

HUTCHYHIBBY
17-02-2012, 01:55 PM
This is why I never go to casinos:greengrin

I thought half the numbers were red, and half black?

0 is green unfortunately!

Haymaker
17-02-2012, 01:56 PM
An asset stripper? :greengrin

Touche!

CropleyWasGod
17-02-2012, 01:57 PM
0 is green unfortunately!

Thank F I'm only a bean counter. :greengrin

HUTCHYHIBBY
17-02-2012, 01:58 PM
I should have said the probability is 18/19 although the casino odds are EVS, not to worry!

Lucius Apuleius
17-02-2012, 02:02 PM
Thank F I'm only a bean counter. :greengrin

Even a bean counter (or especially a bean counter) should know that if you only have a choice of two (lets just forget the 0 for a second) then it is even money. Think tossing a coin. :greengrin

Hibbyradge
17-02-2012, 02:06 PM
Firstly, you wouldn't be asked to invest anything but the ability to offer respectful reply to a fellow Hibs fan who shares the same forum as you.

My money isn't good enough? :confused:





You don't see a gap? here's a wee article:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scottish-news/top-stories/rangers_crisis_will_soon_be_over_and_rangers_fc_wi ll_survive_1_2117659



Joe, with the utmost respect to a fellow Hibs fan who shares the same forum as me, I still don't see any gap.

That article suggests Rangers will survive, ergo Scottish football will continue, gapless (although even currently, that's a moot point).




Basically Rangers will likely fall in to the category of a 'mid table SPL' club if it survives. Unless of course they attract an substantial investment.

Rangers could be relegated to the 3rd division and they'd have more supporters and investors than every other club put together, apart from Celtic.

Sorry, Joe, your plan is plainly fantastic. The fact that not a single voice has so far agreed could serve as a clue as to it's feasibility.

A respectful clue, of course.

500miles
17-02-2012, 02:36 PM
The current SPL structure is no longer workable. Within the next 15 years, more and more clubs - very possibly including our own, regardless of how well-run we are - will go bust, due to that structure being unable to compete with others - including our neighbours southwards, and world wide.

We need to change the plan. Any "investment" will only fall into a black hole. From the - admittedly limited - knowledge i have of the MLS structure, we could achieve a competitive league. We should also be looking at their College/University draft system.

joe_hfc
17-02-2012, 02:37 PM
My money isn't good enough? :confused:



Joe, with the utmost respect to a fellow Hibs fan who shares the same forum as me, I still don't see any gap.

That article suggests Rangers will survive, ergo Scottish football will continue, gapless (although even currently, that's a moot point).



Rangers could be relegated to the 3rd division and they'd have more supporters and investors than every other club put together, apart from Celtic.

Sorry, Joe, your plan is plainly fantastic. The fact that not a single voice has so far agreed could serve as a clue as to it's feasibility.

A respectful clue, of course.

I wasn't quoting the article I was merely painting the picture for the reason of the 'gap'. If you admit that Rangers could be relegated to the 3rd division, how cant you see a gap? Rangers are one of the two dominant forces in the league. With them out of the picture, it leaves just Celtic, and no Rangers. So, there is a gap left where Rangers once were. Shall we sit by and let Celtic dominate for X number of years until Rangers attract enough investment to reclaim the shared dominance they had? Leaving us where, mid-table with an average team and below average vision?

Also, it's not a plan it's an opinion. Because nobody has voiced their agreement doesn't mean to say that it's not feasible one. Nobody has really given any reason why it isn't feasible either.

joe_hfc
17-02-2012, 02:48 PM
My money isn't good enough? :confused:


Rangers could be relegated to the 3rd division and they'd have more supporters and investors than every other club put together, apart from Celtic.

.

Interesting point. Of course throwing a crazy amount of money in to a club like ours would be ridiculous as we could not rival money from ticket sales, shirts and all other merchandise and so our growth would not be sustainable. Nobody said it had to be a Chelsea type investment, as I said before it would be one to allow us to be a better football team than every other Scottish team, bar Celtic.

it's plain to see that success brings fans and sells shirts. We will never be able to bring in the fans that we needs or profit enough from merchandise unless we start succeeding.

blackpoolhibs
17-02-2012, 02:51 PM
I wasn't quoting the article I was merely painting the picture for the reason of the 'gap'. If you admit that Rangers could be relegated to the 3rd division, how cant you see a gap? Rangers are one of the two dominant forces in the league. With them out of the picture, it leaves just Celtic, and no Rangers. So, there is a gap left where Rangers once were. Shall we sit by and let Celtic dominate for X number of years until Rangers attract enough investment to reclaim the shared dominance they had? Leaving us where, mid-table with an average team and below average vision?

Also, it's not a plan it's an opinion. Because nobody has voiced their agreement doesn't mean to say that it's not feasible one. Nobody has really given any reason why it isn't feasible either.

Here's one, look at that lot over the other side of Edinburgh. Look at the state they are in, and just how much have they spent to get 3rd a couple of times, they have not even made that every season? Just how much do you reckon we'd have to spend to guarantee 2nd, should the huns go pop?

CropleyWasGod
17-02-2012, 03:02 PM
Even a bean counter (or especially a bean counter) should know that if you only have a choice of two (lets just forget the 0 for a second) then it is even money. Think tossing a coin. :greengrin

Shhh.. I am used to being asked the question..what is 2 and 2? And answering "what do you want it to be?"

Think of another wee tosser :greengrin


(Of course, I meant a 1 in 2 chance, not 2-1. D'oh.)

Captain Trips
17-02-2012, 03:18 PM
Here's one, look at that lot over the other side of Edinburgh. Look at the state they are in, and just how much have they spent to get 3rd a couple of times, they have not even made that every season? Just how much do you reckon we'd have to spend to guarantee 2nd, should the huns go pop?

What I would say about Hearts is if they spent what they have or had and Romanov had let managers manage from day one Hearts would IMO have got 3rd/2nd a lot more often and might have pushed further.

Romanov had a great opporunity to do something but his own ego was/is their downfall for Hearts before the money.

blackpoolhibs
17-02-2012, 03:21 PM
What I would say about Hearts is if they spent what they have or had and Romanov had let managers manage from day one Hearts would IMO have got 3rd/2nd a lot more often and might have pushed further.

Romanov had a great opporunity to do something but his own ego was/is their downfall for Hearts before the money.

maybe aye maybe no, but when you look at what he's spent, we couldn't get anywhere near that.

Captain Trips
17-02-2012, 03:24 PM
maybe aye maybe no, but when you look at what he's spent, we couldn't get anywhere near that.

No but IMO it isnt the money that has cost Hearts it is how he has run the team, he spent a load but if managed correctly I think they would be a hell of a lot better. Romanovs decisions with managers and team interference are what has cost Hearts.

blackpoolhibs
17-02-2012, 03:28 PM
No but IMO it isnt the money that has cost Hearts it is how he has run the team, he spent a load but if managed correctly I think they would be a hell of a lot better. Romanovs decisions with managers and team interference are what has cost Hearts.

I think spending what they have has cost them, but agree if he'd kept his nose out of affairs they would have done better.

Lucius Apuleius
17-02-2012, 04:35 PM
Shhh.. I am used to being asked the question..what is 2 and 2? And answering "what do you want it to be?"

Think of another wee tosser :greengrin


(Of course, I meant a 1 in 2 chance, not 2-1. D'oh.)

:greengrin I can do that kind of math as well. We knew what you meant.........................................hone st. :wink:

The_Exile
17-02-2012, 04:48 PM
What's so attractive about 2nd place though? It doesn't carry a champions league place any more!! I don't see what gap you're meaning, is it just the kudos for coming 2nd place? The extra prize money, I mean what would it be worth, an extra million quid or something? We'd need to spend much more than that to get 2nd place I'd imagine.

bigwheel
17-02-2012, 04:58 PM
Oh Irony....now that Rangers have gone underwater, let's spend loads of money to try to secure success...that's the plan!! :wink:

Kaiser1962
17-02-2012, 05:03 PM
Lesson number 1 in football financing. To make a small fortune, you start off with a large one.Football history is littered with stories of big spending ending in tears. To date, I can only think of a couple of situations where it has resulted in success, Chelsea and Blackburn. For every one of those, there is at least a Leeds, a Hearts, a Rangers and a Portsmouth.No one is doubting that there may be an opportunity. But the Hibs model is based on incremental growth. That has happened off the park, and there are signs that it is happening on the park now as well. Anything other than that would be folly, IMO. Chelsea and Blackburn (a while ago now) achieved success on the pitch but by that criteria you could argue so were Rangers. Chelsea are entirely dependent on Abramovich's continued benevolence (at the end of last season they owed him £740m) and Blackburn, post Jack Walker, plodded on for a while on his legacy but are struggling,and have been for a few seasons now. To achieve success in football involves, in the vast majority of cases, spending money, and lots of it, that you will never see again.