Epsom Derby

[Marty-Hibee]

A few years back, someone posted a thread with what was basically a formula to the winner of the Derby. He tipped 'Sea the Stars', and it came in. Im obviously not daft enough to think its a done deal every year, but just out of pure superstition, I would like to see who the "winner" will be this year.

Basically, what im asking is - does anyone know who had this formula?

[vein]

A few years back, someone posted a thread with what was basically a formula to the winner of the Derby. He tipped 'Sea the Stars', and it came in. Im obviously not daft enough to think its a done deal every year, but just out of pure superstition, I would like to see who the "winner" will be this year.

Basically, what im asking is - does anyone know who had this formula?

That was me mate. Last year the formula let me down although when I had a look after the race I found the winner had won a race that wasnt showing on the sites I looked on so should have really fell into the calculations.

Prior to that it had picked the winner for about four years on the trot since I started using the formula. It wont always whittle it down to the one horse but should bring it down to 2 or 3.

I've got my book out tonight so will post up a little later on what the result of the formula is.

[vein]

Ok formula is as follows....

1 - The winner will usually come from the first six horses in the betting. If two or more horses are sixth equal then they should all be considered.

2 - The winner will usually have one of the following sets of form for last 3 races

111, 121, 011, 112, 311, 211, 321, 101, 114, 122, 131, 11, 21 (the last two are only if the horse has only had 2 career runs)

So from the betting I can see potentially 8 horses fall into scope. I've used the Ladbrokes prices but I can see that the last 3 are the 6th favourite with some of the bookies so including all 3.

Carlton House -7/4 - 211
Recital - 9/2 - 131
Pour Moi - 11/2 - 131
Seville - 7/1 - 122
Native Khan - 10/1 - 413
Ocean War - 16/1 - 511
Vadamar - 20/1 - 113
Memphis Tennessee - 28/1 - 512

Looking at the form figures only Carlton House, Recital, Pour Moi and Seville stay in the calculations.

The next step is to look at the 2 year old form of the horses that are left. The following guidelines apply for this step.

1 - At the time of writing in this book 36 of the last 41 derby winners won at 7 furlongs or a mile at 2.
2 - Derby winners are hardly ever beaten at 2 after winning their maiden unless in a group or listed race.
3 - Excluding group or listed Derby winners should attract favourable comments in their last 2 year old race (eg. won easily)
4 - If they ran before the 1st week in August they should have been placed in the 1st four of a group race as a 2 year old.
5 - If debut after June its likely that they would have had their first run (succesful or not) on either of Newmarket straight courses or on the straight course at Newbury.

All 4 satisfy points 1 and 2, for point 3 Carlton House and Recital appear to have good comments, I cant find info on Pour Mois last race apart from that it won and Seville was beaten in a group race. No horse ran before August so point 4 cant be applied and no horse satisfies point 5.

I cant really discount the chances of any of the 4 of them after going through the above but I'm edging towards Recital at the moment. I'll post up who I go for tomorrow.

[Houchy]

Ok formula is as follows....

1 - The winner will usually come from the first six horses in the betting. If two or more horses are sixth equal then they should all be considered.

2 - The winner will usually have one of the following sets of form for last 3 races

111, 121, 011, 112, 311, 211, 321, 101, 114, 122, 131, 11, 21 (the last two are only if the horse has only had 2 career runs)

So from the betting I can see potentially 8 horses fall into scope. I've used the Ladbrokes prices but I can see that the last 3 are the 6th favourite with some of the bookies so including all 3.

Carlton House -7/4 - 211
Recital - 9/2 - 131
Pour Moi - 11/2 - 131
Seville - 7/1 - 122
Native Khan - 10/1 - 413
Ocean War - 16/1 - 511
Vadamar - 20/1 - 113
Memphis Tennessee - 28/1 - 512

Looking at the form figures only Carlton House, Recital, Pour Moi and Seville stay in the calculations.

The next step is to look at the 2 year old form of the horses that are left. The following guidelines apply for this step.

1 - At the time of writing in this book 36 of the last 41 derby winners won at 7 furlongs or a mile at 2.
2 - Derby winners are hardly ever beaten at 2 after winning their maiden unless in a group or listed race.
3 - Excluding group or listed Derby winners should attract favourable comments in their last 2 year old race (eg. won easily)
4 - If they ran before the 1st week in August they should have been placed in the 1st four of a group race as a 2 year old.
5 - If debut after June its likely that they would have had their first run (succesful or not) on either of Newmarket straight courses or on the straight course at Newbury.

All 4 satisfy points 1 and 2, for point 3 Carlton House and Recital appear to have good comments, I cant find info on Pour Mois last race apart from that it won and Seville was beaten in a group race. No horse ran before August so point 4 cant be applied and no horse satisfies point 5.

I cant really discount the chances of any of the 4 of them after going through the above but I'm edging towards Recital at the moment. I'll post up who I go for tomorrow.

My bookie didnae swallow that one D. I even tried showing him this link on my iPhone promising that as soon as I knew, i'd let him know who I was backing.:greengrin

[Golden Bear]

Ok formula is as follows....

1 - The winner will usually come from the first six horses in the betting. If two or more horses are sixth equal then they should all be considered.

2 - The winner will usually have one of the following sets of form for last 3 races

111, 121, 011, 112, 311, 211, 321, 101, 114, 122, 131, 11, 21 (the last two are only if the horse has only had 2 career runs)

So from the betting I can see potentially 8 horses fall into scope. I've used the Ladbrokes prices but I can see that the last 3 are the 6th favourite with some of the bookies so including all 3.

Carlton House -7/4 - 211
Recital - 9/2 - 131
Pour Moi - 11/2 - 131
Seville - 7/1 - 122
Native Khan - 10/1 - 413
Ocean War - 16/1 - 511
Vadamar - 20/1 - 113
Memphis Tennessee - 28/1 - 512

Looking at the form figures only Carlton House, Recital, Pour Moi and Seville stay in the calculations.

The next step is to look at the 2 year old form of the horses that are left. The following guidelines apply for this step.

1 - At the time of writing in this book 36 of the last 41 derby winners won at 7 furlongs or a mile at 2.
2 - Derby winners are hardly ever beaten at 2 after winning their maiden unless in a group or listed race.
3 - Excluding group or listed Derby winners should attract favourable comments in their last 2 year old race (eg. won easily)
4 - If they ran before the 1st week in August they should have been placed in the 1st four of a group race as a 2 year old.
5 - If debut after June its likely that they would have had their first run (succesful or not) on either of Newmarket straight courses or on the straight course at Newbury.

All 4 satisfy points 1 and 2, for point 3 Carlton House and Recital appear to have good comments, I cant find info on Pour Mois last race apart from that it won and Seville was beaten in a group race. No horse ran before August so point 4 cant be applied and no horse satisfies point 5.

I cant really discount the chances of any of the 4 of them after going through the above but I'm edging towards Recital at the moment. I'll post up who I go for tomorrow.

Not a bad piece of advice as things turned out.

Hopefully Pour Mois didn't leave you with a frog in your throat.

:wink:

[HUTCHYHIBBY]

God bless the frog! 2 good wins for Barzalona recently!

[vein]

My bookie didnae swallow that one D. I even tried showing him this link on my iPhone promising that as soon as I knew, i'd let him know who I was backing.:greengrin

Was still swithering this morning mate but stuck with Recital. Just to be safe though I covered my bet with backing the fav and Seville to cover my stake. The one I had to leave out was Pour Moi :rolleyes:

Anyway, the formula pulled out the winner again, just a shame it wasnt as clear cut as it has been in prior years!

[marinello59]

My dosh was on Pour Moi. Nothing scientific really........just a hunch. :greengrin

[HUTCHYHIBBY]

My dosh was on Pour Moi. Nothing scientific really........just a hunch. :greengrin

Pour Moi for me too!
Happy days!

[HUTCHYHIBBY]

See what I did there?
Tee Hee!