Top 6 - How likely is it?

[Jones28]

For us to be in the top 6 come the end of the season?

[NYHibby]

Not very

[HibbyAndy]

35-65 id say.

[sleeping giant]

Maybe :greengrin

[Removed]

I wouldn't put any money on it now

[matty_f]

I'd rate it at 50/50, though there's only a 10% chance of that.

[Saorsa]

dinnae see it happening TBH but we can hope.

[Barney McGrew]

Very unlikely. Dundee Utd will get fifth meaning we'd have to overtake ICT and Motherwell.

I reckon that Motherwell's win against Celtc will prove to be the difference in the the end.

[bingo70]

IMO we need to win 3 of our next 4 games for it to happen IMO

IMO we'll get beat off celtic and beat hamilton at home so that leaves the games against hearts and aberdeen, both of which could go either way but i think it'll depend on how we do in these two games whether we finish top 6 or not

[Cabbage East]

60% of the time, we'll make it every time.

[ANDY McGEECHAN]

60% of the time, we'll make it every time.


lets be honest, probably 33/1 chance

[NthCarolinaHibs]

Not being a gambler, I wouldn't bet on it

[greenlex]

One chance. No chance.

[Beefster]

60% of the time, we'll make it every time.

http://www.winkyface.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/sexpanther1.jpg

[Sir David Gray]

I don't think we'll get the top six, I feel we had to win on Saturday up at Perth so I think that draw will prove to be the killer in the end.

After we beat St Mirren at Easter Road, I said that I felt we had to win 6 out of our last 9 remaining games before the split to make the top six. We have gone on to win 4 matches but after Motherwell beat Celtic a couple of weeks back, two more wins will almost certainly not be enough.

So that means we'll have to win at least 3 out of our last 4 matches just to give us a chance and I can't see us doing that, if I'm being honest. We'll lose to Celtic, beat Hamilton and hopefully Hearts and I think the Aberdeen match will end in a draw.

I feel the current top six, as things stand, will prove to be the top six after 33 games. We'll end up 7th as we'll overtake Inverness after the split.

[scoopyboy]

not much hope IMO.

Six points from four matches would be a reasonable return but not enough for top half.

[Albion Hibs]

I dont think there is any chance of us finishing in the top six. Results like Motherwell, Utd and St J left us with only one point out of games with teams that are all in and about the 6th spot, if we had taken 3 or 4 points maybe.

Unfortunately our good run started a little late and we were too far gone by that stage. I think it should still be our aim but with games like celtic, hertz and Aberdeen away I dont see us getting as many points as we will need, especially when other teams have played games in hand etc.

I think we will end up finishing 7th with more points than the team in 6th, but I will stop before I get torn into how pish the split is!

[GreenCastle]

I dont think there is any chance of us finishing in the top six. Results like Motherwell, Utd and St J left us with only one point out of games with teams that are all in and about the 6th spot, if we had taken 3 or 4 points maybe.

Unfortunately our good run started a little late and we were too far gone by that stage. I think it should still be our aim but with games like celtic, hertz and Aberdeen away I dont see us getting as many points as we will need, especially when other teams have played games in hand etc.

I think we will end up finishing 7th with more points than the team in 6th, but I will stop before I get torn into how pish the split is!

:agree:

Too little too late.

A few weeks ago I was just happy we managed to win some games and stay away from relegation.

It seems we will be in the bottom 6 - hopefully 100% safe soon as Hamilton are running out of games to catch up and can continue the rebuild for next season.

We should as a club be in top 6 every year and that has to be achieved next season :agree:

Hopefully we can keep the momentum going till the end of the season and start next season well - rather than playing catch up :rolleyes:

[Sir David Gray]

:agree:

Too little too late.

A few weeks ago I was just happy we managed to win some games and stay away from relegation.

It seems we will be in the bottom 6 - hopefully 100% safe soon as Hamilton are running out of games to catch up and can continue the rebuild for next season.

We should as a club be in top 6 every year and that has to be achieved next season :agree:

Hopefully we can keep the momentum going till the end of the season and start next season well - rather than playing catch up :rolleyes:

Absolutely.

Although there has been an understandable lift around the place in the past month, we cannot escape from the fact that, on the whole, this season has been totally unacceptable and not good enough by any stretch of the imagination.

Hibs being in the top six is the bare minimum that I expect and it should go without saying every single season. The fact that we're even discussing the possibility of Hibs not making the top six this season is highly embarrassing.

Having said that, I have seen enough over the past five or six matches to give me hope for next season and I just hope that Calderwood is able to build his squad in the summer and that the vast majority of the squad that got us in this mess is told to get as far away from Easter Road as possible.

Make no mistake, next season will be huge for Calderwood and I, for one, will be looking for a top four finish.

[7 Hills]

For us to be in the top 6 come the end of the season?

Mibbez aye - mibbez naw. :wink: To be honest, if we take a financial hit from not finishing in the top 6, at least it won't be anywhere so near as bad as the hit we could have taken through relegation, which we all feared only 6 games ago. If we do finish bottom 6, we should be safe enough for CC to blood some of the new batch of young players - swings and roundabouts.

:flag:

[Dunbar Hibee]

http://www.winkyface.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/05/sexpanther1.jpg

:faf::thumbsup:

[aussie_hibee]

From the fixtures below, I can see ICT picking up 1 point at the most.
I think motherwell will only pick up 3 against Aberdeen.
3 wins should do it. I think we'll fall just short with 7 or 8 points.
Fingers crossed though.

Wednesday, 16 March 2011
Celtic v Hibernian, 19:45

Saturday, 19 March 2011
Kilmarnock v Motherwell, 12:00
Dundee Utd v Inverness CT, 15:00

Saturday, 2 April 2011
Inverness CT v Celtic, 12:00
Motherwell v Aberdeen, 15:00

Sunday, 3 April 2011
Hibernian v Hearts, 12:45
Wednesday, 6 April 2011
Motherwell v Dundee Utd, 19:45

Saturday, 9 April 2011
Aberdeen v Hibernian, 15:00
Hearts v Motherwell, 15:00
Kilmarnock v Inverness CT, 15:00

Saturday, 16 April 2011
Inverness CT v Hearts, 15:00

Sunday, 17 April 2011
Hibernian v Hamilton, 12:00

[Andy74]

I don't think we'll get the top six, I feel we had to win on Saturday up at Perth so I think that draw will prove to be the killer in the end.

After we beat St Mirren at Easter Road, I said that I felt we had to win 6 out of our last 9 remaining games before the split to make the top six. We have gone on to win 4 matches but after Motherwell beat Celtic a couple of weeks back, two more wins will almost certainly not be enough.

So that means we'll have to win at least 3 out of our last 4 matches just to give us a chance and I can't see us doing that, if I'm being honest. We'll lose to Celtic, beat Hamilton and hopefully Hearts and I think the Aberdeen match will end in a draw.

I feel the current top six, as things stand, will prove to be the top six after 33 games. We'll end up 7th as we'll overtake Inverness after the split.

Do you talk like that in real life? :greengrin

[PaulSmith]

From the fixtures below, I can see ICT picking up 1 point at the most.
I think motherwell will only pick up 3 against Aberdeen.
3 wins should do it. I think we'll fall just short with 7 or 8 points.
Fingers crossed though.

Wednesday, 16 March 2011
Celtic v Hibernian, 19:45

Saturday, 19 March 2011
Kilmarnock v Motherwell, 12:00
Dundee Utd v Inverness CT, 15:00

Saturday, 2 April 2011
Inverness CT v Celtic, 12:00
Motherwell v Aberdeen, 15:00

Sunday, 3 April 2011
Hibernian v Hearts, 12:45
Wednesday, 6 April 2011
Motherwell v Dundee Utd, 19:45

Saturday, 9 April 2011
Aberdeen v Hibernian, 15:00
Hearts v Motherwell, 15:00
Kilmarnock v Inverness CT, 15:00

Saturday, 16 April 2011
Inverness CT v Hearts, 15:00

Sunday, 17 April 2011
Hibernian v Hamilton, 12:00

We're no where near good enough to get 2 wins out of Celtic and Aberdeen away and Hearts at home.

Total 5 points between now and the end of the season which means no top 6, which for Hibs is shocking.

[bingo70]

We're no where near good enough to get 2 wins out of Celtic and Aberdeen away and Hearts at home.

Total 5 points between now and the end of the season which means no top 6, which for Hibs is shocking.

I agree and it's somewhere we shouldn't be for a long time again, however to put it in perspective, it's just a bad season, to finish bottom six once in about 7 years (is that right? can't remember when we last finished bottom 6 but i'm guessing it was just pre-mowbray) isn't that bad and i think probably the best record in the spl outside the old firm.

Every team has bad seasons and we've been pretty lucky to not have too many in the last few years so fingers crossed it's just a blip and normallity will resume next year and i'm confident it will.

[Sir David Gray]

Do you talk like that in real life? :greengrin

Most definitely. :greengrin

[JimBHibees]

We're no where near good enough to get 2 wins out of Celtic and Aberdeen away and Hearts at home.

Total 5 points between now and the end of the season which means no top 6, which for Hibs is shocking.

I wouldnt say it was beyond this present team to win at Aberdeen and beat Hearts at home. Will need to play very well however Aberdeen looked very average against Dundee Utd and Hearts seem to have gone off the boil to an extent. Never say never.

[basehibby]

lets be honest, probably 33/1 chance

I would put money on it at THAT price.

Realistically it's still a long shot but about 5/1 would be how I'd rate our chances.

I wonder what the bookies think ?

[delbert]

Looking at the remaining fixtures, I think we have absolutely no chance of getting into the top 6, but in all honesty, is that a disaster, because our record in the top 6 in recent seasons has been nothing short of atrocious, and if we did get in, we would probably finish 6th at best.

As we are clearly in a major rebuilding phase, and are obviously looking for better things next season, perhaps finishing 7th, and spanking a few teams in the bottom half of the league in the last few games of the season will keep confidence high, generate interest from fans and (hopefully) new players will then want to come and play for Hibs next season. I agree that the minimum a club like Hibs should be looking for every season is top 6 but lets keep it real, it's not that many weeks ago that many people were wondering if we might be fighting for top 6 next season one division below.

I am more than happy that under CC we appear to have both stabilised and then improved, and I honestly don't see top 6 as the Holy Grail, I think if we can bring in 3 or 4 decent players during the summer, please please a dominating CH for starters, get rid of some more dross, and tie down a few of the players we would like to keep, I am confident that the fight next season will be for 3rd or 4th, and we will be right in the mix, GGTTH

[Billy Whizz]

Suggest we revisit this thread after the Celtic game next week!

[PaulSmith]

Looking at the remaining fixtures, I think we have absolutely no chance of getting into the top 6, but in all honesty, is that a disaster, because our record in the top 6 in recent seasons has been nothing short of atrocious, and if we did get in, we would probably finish 6th at best.

As we are clearly in a major rebuilding phase, and are obviously looking for better things next season, perhaps finishing 7th, and spanking a few teams in the bottom half of the league in the last few games of the season will keep confidence high, generate interest from fans and (hopefully) new players will then want to come and play for Hibs next season. I agree that the minimum a club like Hibs should be looking for every season is top 6 but lets keep it real, it's not that many weeks ago that many people were wondering if we might be fighting for top 6 next season one division below.

I am more than happy that under CC we appear to have both stabilised and then improved, and I honestly don't see top 6 as the Holy Grail, I think if we can bring in 3 or 4 decent players during the summer, please please a dominating CH for starters, get rid of some more dross, and tie down a few of the players we would like to keep, I am confident that the fight next season will be for 3rd or 4th, and we will be right in the mix, GGTTH

Financially massive, take another £400-500k out of the turnover which was already dropping after shocking cup defeats.

Hibs won't look to make a loss therefore expect budget cuts on the player front as I fear that Season Tickets will be down 10-15%.

[steakbake]

I'm thinking the chances lie between statistical and none at all.

[erin go bragh]

I would put money on it at THAT price.

Realistically it's still a long shot but about 5/1 would be how I'd rate our chances.

I wonder what the bookies think ?
i put a £5 on us at 80/1 [bet fair] end of jan, even if we win our last 4 we still have to hope well or ict dont win 2 . think were 12/1 with bet fair now.
ggtth

[Jones28]

We're no where near good enough to get 2 wins out of Celtic and Aberdeen away and Hearts at home.

Total 5 points between now and the end of the season which means no top 6, which for Hibs is shocking.

Considering the season we've been having i would have been delighted to be talking top six at christmas.

However, no excuses next season. Top 4 minimum :agree:

[Dashing Bob S]

For us to be in the top 6 come the end of the season?

I'd say almost inevitable.






But perhaps not this season.

[scoopyboy]

Financially massive, take another £400-500k out of the turnover which was already dropping after shocking cup defeats.

Hibs won't look to make a loss therefore expect budget cuts on the player front as I fear that Season Tickets will be down 10-15%.

I wouldn't agree with that figure Paul.

In all probability we would have had Celtic after the split but no Rangers or Hearts.

Two more home games against Dundee Utd and Motherwell for example which probably wouldn't bring in many more punters than SJ or SM and definitely not Aberdeen.

So in my estimation 4000 fans at £27 = £108,000.

Given higher league placing another £50,000 if we can finish seventh.

I would estimate a total of under £200,000.

[truehibernian]

The next two games will show us, I think, how far this team have come in a very short space of time. I know after speaking with a Hearts coach that JJ and Brown are anxious about playing Hibs and are already looking at playing a more physical side to combat our "new midfield".

Just getting into a winning cycle and changing the squad's mindset from losers to winners is what is important for me, regardless of top 6 or bottom 6. We have shown by winning against Killie and Caley that we are as good as if not better than those in the top 6. Beating Hamilton and St Mirren has also shown a real battling quality against strugglers admittedly, but strugglers who are fighting for their SPL survival.

This season was over for us at Christmas and the fact we are on the fringes of the top 6, after a terrific turn of form since January, is remarkable. Against Caley especially and first half v Hamilton, you could see the confidence start flowing and the players look really confident and comfortable on the ball, even when things are not coming off in games. The supporters have been superb too, cutting the team a lot more slack when the game is going away from us.......I honestly think we can't ignore the difference the Hibs support has made to the results we have had. Wins, even if it is in the bottom 6, bring back the feel good factor and bring back fans. Yep, top 6 is the aim every season, but happy to see us this season continue winning games and reinforcing the winning mentality in what is a young team being put together by CC and Adams.

Green Day proved a success, so if we are in the bottom 6 I would expect the club to come up with a similar scheme for the remaining home games. Would also be good to see maybe a couple of the youngsters blooded.

[PaulSmith]

I wouldn't agree with that figure Paul.

In all probability we would have had Celtic after the split but no Rangers or Hearts.

Two more home games against Dundee Utd and Motherwell for example which probably wouldn't bring in many more punters than SJ or SM and definitely not Aberdeen.

So in my estimation 4000 fans at £27 = £108,000.

Given higher league placing another £50,000 if we can finish seventh.

I would estimate a total of under £200,000.

Factor in the intangible losses where supporters drift away and don't renew ST's, marketing opportunities reduce as we're not a 'top' club and can't charge premium rates for new sponsors and the chace to sell out hospitality for the Celtic game then we might be closer to my figure IMO.

[Part/Time Supporter]

Factor in the intangible losses where supporters drift away and don't renew ST's, marketing opportunities reduce as we're not a 'top' club and can't charge premium rates for new sponsors and the chace to sell out hospitality for the Celtic game then we might be closer to my figure IMO.

If anything folk would be more likely to renew after seeing the team win a few games late in the season, rather than the usual "lucky if we grind out a 1-0 somewhere" that has been the typical pattern of top six games in recent years.

[truehibernian]

Factor in the intangible losses where supporters drift away and don't renew ST's, marketing opportunities reduce as we're not a 'top' club and can't charge premium rates for new sponsors and the chace to sell out hospitality for the Celtic game then we might be closer to my figure IMO.

I think the new season approaching is an ideal opportunity to get increased sales in season tickets, better sponsorship and get more money in if I am being honest. Even though there has only been one window, it's clear that CC has brought in some good, young talent. Season 2011/12 will be very exciting for Hibs IMHO, with CC clearing the decks and rebuilding his team, a brand new team.........the season ticket numbers have always been reasonably solid. The recession is still to truly bite in Scottish football in my opinion, and with D Utd already preparing their fans for the worst by saying that players will leave and Houston's budget will be reduced, I think we are in a really strong marketing position compared to our competition.

To say we cannot charge premium for sponsorship is wrong. Look at the stadium we have, the set up, and the fan base. I am 100% confident that if a major sponsor was looking at clubs outwith the OF to have in the public eye, they would want it to be displayed and shown on players who play at a club where the infrastructure and club look and feel professional. I know it's aesthetics, but the new stadium has a huge bearing on sponsors outlook. Add in a young, hungry squad of players, a progressive manager......I think you are undervaluing Hibs mate. The last 5 games of the season will not decide where Hibs are, financially, in 2011/12. Summer, the exodus and influx of players.......a new Hibs.......that's what we are all looking forward to. I haven't looked forward to a new season as much for a long time in fact.

[scoopyboy]

Factor in the intangible losses where supporters drift away and don't renew ST's, marketing opportunities reduce as we're not a 'top' club and can't charge premium rates for new sponsors and the chace to sell out hospitality for the Celtic game then we might be closer to my figure IMO.

Paul if we scraped top six I wouldn't rule out humpings at Ibrox and Tynecastle as well as possibly turned over by Celtic at ER.That could stop folks renewing.

By doing well between now and end of season we could finish seventh and win a lot of games which actually might encourage fans to buy. Possibly because it looks better than we actually are.

Regarding hospitality I don't deny it is a loss but not as bad as it would have been. Noon kick offs on a Sunday wreaks havoc with hospitality packages.

[R'Albin]

I think the new season approaching is an ideal opportunity to get increased sales in season tickets, better sponsorship and get more money in if I am being honest. Even though there has only been one window, it's clear that CC has brought in some good, young talent. Season 2011/12 will be very exciting for Hibs IMHO, with CC clearing the decks and rebuilding his team, a brand new team.........the season ticket numbers have always been reasonably solid. The recession is still to truly bite in Scottish football in my opinion, and with D Utd already preparing their fans for the worst by saying that players will leave and Houston's budget will be reduced, I think we are in a really strong marketing position compared to our competition.

To say we cannot charge premium for sponsorship is wrong. Look at the stadium we have, the set up, and the fan base. I am 100% confident that if a major sponsor was looking at clubs outwith the OF to have in the public eye, they would want it to be displayed and shown on players who play at a club where the infrastructure and club look and feel professional. I know it's aesthetics, but the new stadium has a huge bearing on sponsors outlook. Add in a young, hungry squad of players, a progressive manager......I think you are undervaluing Hibs mate. The last 5 games of the season will not decide where Hibs are, financially, in 2011/12. Summer, the exodus and influx of players.......a new Hibs.......that's what we are all looking forward to. I haven't looked forward to a new season as much for a long time in fact.

:agree:

I cannae wait ! As you say we have the infrastructure, we now have a good management team in CC and Adams, and the dross is finally getting cleared out:aok:

[stokesmessiah]

Factor in the intangible losses where supporters drift away and don't renew ST's, marketing opportunities reduce as we're not a 'top' club and can't charge premium rates for new sponsors and the chace to sell out hospitality for the Celtic game then we might be closer to my figure IMO.

IMO, I think your being a bit dramatic. There will of course be some financial implications on not finishing in the top6, i dont think however you suddenly become a wee club after one bottom 6 finish in 7 years or so.