Scotland permutations (merged)

[Kaiser_Sauzee]

A draw takes us to 11 points.

In group 1, Hungary and Sweden can reach 10 points and 9 points respectively when you take 6 points from each team for their 2 wins against bottom team Malta.

Group Standings (http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/europe/standings/index.html)


Qualifying Rules (http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/preliminaries/europe/secondplace.html)

We should qualify by 1 point with a draw.

[Mikey]

I haven't checked the table. If we draw can we be caught by anyone in our own group?

[Kaiser_Sauzee]

I haven't checked the table. If we draw can we be caught by anyone in our own group?

No, Norway will finish 1 point behind us even if we win.

[Kaiser_Sauzee]

No, we need divine interventiion. and I don't mean Sidney.

I am a man of science.

[AFKA5814_Hibs]

Hungary still have to play three more games, non against Malta (2 v Portgual, 1 v Denmark). Since they already have 7 points from their games (taking away the points against Malta), they can still achieve 16 points.

Scotland will have to beat Holland to have any chance of finishing one of the best runners ups.

[kevinc]

I haven't checked the table. If we draw can we be caught by anyone in our own group?
Both Norway & Macedonia can finish above us if we don't get at least a point from Holland.

[Kaiser_Sauzee]

Hungary still have to play three more games, non against Malta (2 v Portgual, 1 v Denmark). Since they already have 7 points from their games (taking away the points against Malta), they can still achieve 16 points.

Scotland will have to beat Holland to have any chance of finishing one of the best runners ups.

Aye you're right.

I've succumbed to Yamenomics. :paranoid:

[Frazerbob]

Somebody on the TAMB has worked out that we can actually have a play-off place confirmed on Wednesday night IF we beat Holland, giving us 13 points. All we would then need is........

Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland meaning they will win group 3. Northern Ireland could then only reach 17 points (-6 = 11)
Poland and Solvenia draw meaning the most they could get is 18 (-6 = 12)
Czech Republic are currently on a maximum of 18 (-6 = 12)

Time to get the ready reckoners out!

[Sir David Gray]

This is how the second placed teams are ranked after all of today's matches.

1. Russia-12 points from 5 matches
2. Croatia-11 points from 6 matches
3. France-11 points from 6 matches
4. Greece-10 points from 6 matches
5. Ireland-10 points from 6 matches
6. Scotland-10 points from 7 matches
7. Bosnia-9 points from 5 matches
8. N. Ireland-8 points from 6 matches
9. Hungary-7 points from 5 matches

There's still far too many permutations to be able to make any kind of solid predictions as to what may or may not happen. However, I would think that the country whose results we need to pay closest attention to, is Northern Ireland.

If we win on Wednesday, Northern Ireland would have to win their last 2 matches to overtake us.

If we don't win on Wednesday, it's basically curtains.

[Removed]

Somebody on the TAMB has worked out that we can actually have a play-off place confirmed on Wednesday night IF we beat Holland, giving us 13 points. All we would then need is........

Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland meaning they will win group 3. Northern Ireland could then only reach 17 points (-6 = 11)
Poland and Solvenia draw meaning the most they could get is 18 (-6 = 12)
Czech Republic are currently on a maximum of 18 (-6 = 12)

Time to get the ready reckoners out!

Time to open another beer. It'll all be academic after Wednesday.

[iwasthere1972]

Somebody on the TAMB has worked out that we can actually have a play-off place confirmed on Wednesday night IF we beat Holland, giving us 13 points. All we would then need is........

Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland meaning they will win group 3. Northern Ireland could then only reach 17 points (-6 = 11)
Poland and Solvenia draw meaning the most they could get is 18 (-6 = 12)
Czech Republic are currently on a maximum of 18 (-6 = 12)

Time to get the ready reckoners out!

I spent the last 15 minutes doing the reckoning compared with Northern Ireland's group because I thought that was the group we were now looking at if we were to qualify. I didn't get as far as starting a new thread and deleted what I had.

I can't be bothered doing the sums but if the Czech Rep and N. Ireland draw their game and N. Ireland lose to Slovakia then maybe just a draw against Holland would be enough. I'm basing this theory on other "crucial" matches in N. Ireland's group to be draws. Obviously we would want Slovakia to win all their remaining games.

I've probably made a pigs ear of my calculations because I haven't sat down and looked at them too closely as time is getting on and I have a bit footie to catch up with on the telly.

C'mon the Jocks. :thumbsup:

[AFKA5814_Hibs]

Somebody on the TAMB has worked out that we can actually have a play-off place confirmed on Wednesday night IF we beat Holland, giving us 13 points. All we would then need is........

Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland meaning they will win group 3. Northern Ireland could then only reach 17 points (-6 = 11)
Poland and Solvenia draw meaning the most they could get is 18 (-6 = 12)
Czech Republic are currently on a maximum of 18 (-6 = 12)

Time to get the ready reckoners out!

Hopefully. If Scotland can be really up for it and the Dutch aren't... :pray:

Not sure if this is right or not, but IIRC are the play off's seeded in any way?

[Frazerbob]

Hopefully. If Scotland can be really up for it and the Dutch aren't... :pray:

Not sure if this is right or not, but IIRC are the play off's seeded in any way?

Don't think so, straight forward draw IIRC.

[AFKA5814_Hibs]

Don't think so, straight forward draw IIRC.

Fair enough. I had this thought from the last time Scotland were in the play offs when we played England it was seeded.

If we manage to get into the play offs then anything would be a bonus after that IMO.

[bringbackjoeT!!]

I think the Hungary, Portugal group is the one we could well beat even with a draw on wednesday. Hungary still have to play Portugal twice and Denmark (leaders) hopefully dont lose against Sweden we should be OK

[AFKA5814_Hibs]

As has been pointed out on another thread the following results

Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland meaning they will win group 3. Northern Ireland could then only reach 17 points (-6 = 11)
Poland and Solvenia draw meaning the most they could get is 18 (-6 = 12)
Czech Republic are currently on a maximum of 18 (-6 = 12)

Unless the Vodka has really gone to my heid :greengrin Along with a Scotland win against the Dutch would see Scotland qualify as one of the 2nd best teams. Probably our best bet tbh.

[Green Man]

This is all far too confusing :confused:

[Pete]

:grr:This is far too complicated...I still don't have a bloody clue what's going on.

The most important men at the holland game will probably be the three mathematics professors in the Scotland dug-out.

[Removed]

I really don't know why you are all getting your knickers in a twist with all the hypothetical stuff. We all know the script by now.

[Sir David Gray]

As has been pointed out on another thread the following results

Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland meaning they will win group 3. Northern Ireland could then only reach 17 points (-6 = 11)
Poland and Solvenia draw meaning the most they could get is 18 (-6 = 12)
Czech Republic are currently on a maximum of 18 (-6 = 12)

Unless the Vodka has really gone to my heid :greengrin Along with a Scotland win against the Dutch would see Scotland qualify as one of the 2nd best teams. Probably our best bet tbh.

I don't think I would put any money on it happening but it is still possible. I think we will know much more on Wednesday night.

I think the Czech Republic might be contenders for that second spot in their group. They have 3 home games in a row coming up and if they win them all and take 2nd place, they will go to 18 points, which will be reduced to 12 points as they will have beaten San Marino twice.

Obviously if we beat Holland then that will be enough to take us above them.

[hibee_nation]

Can someone work it out if we can still get through after the Dutch have gubbed us, after all that's what is gonna happen. :dizzy:

[iwasthere1972]

Can someone work it out if we can still get through after the Dutch have gubbed us, after all that's what is gonna happen. :dizzy:

Yep that's possible only in the event that Norway and Macedonia draw and a war breaks out in one of the countries that have qualified for the play offs.

Simples. :greengrin

[PISTOL1875]

Hopefully. If Scotland can be really up for it and the Dutch aren't... :pray:

Not sure if this is right or not, but IIRC are the play off's seeded in any way?

The Dutch will be up for it.. They will want to qualify with maximum points and send a message to everybody else...

[AFKA5814_Hibs]

The Dutch will be up for it.. They will want to qualify with maximum points and send a message to everybody else...

Hopefully we'll be up for it more.

If you think back to the time when he played them in a play off. Aye, they beat us 6-0 in Amsterdam, but we beat them 1-0 at Hampden, that's all we need, a 1-0 win at Hampden... :greengrin

[iwasthere1972]

Hopefully we'll be up for it more.

If you think back to the time when he played them in a play off. Aye, they beat us 6-0 in Amsterdam, but we beat them 1-0 at Hampden, that's all we need, a 1-0 win at Hampden... :greengrin

No McFadden this time around but agree the team (and the tartan army) will be well up for the challenge.

[PISTOL1875]

Hopefully we'll be up for it more.

If you think back to the time when he played them in a play off. Aye, they beat us 6-0 in Amsterdam, but we beat them 1-0 at Hampden, that's all we need, a 1-0 win at Hampden... :greengrin

I am hoping that we will get a result as well but I think it'll be a bridge to far for us......

[Pete]

I really don't know why you are all getting your knickers in a twist with all the hypothetical stuff. We all know the script by now.

I think we'll beat Holland...only to lose to some team we should beat on paper in the play-offs.

"Glorious failure" should be embroidered somewhere on the shirt. At least we'll know what level the bar is at!

[AFKA5814_Hibs]

I don't think I would put any money on it happening but it is still possible. I think we will know much more on Wednesday night.

I think the Czech Republic might be contenders for that second spot in their group. They have 3 home games in a row coming up and if they win them all and take 2nd place, they will go to 18 points, which will be reduced to 12 points as they will have beaten San Marino twice.

Obviously if we beat Holland then that will be enough to take us above them.

It is dependent on Scotland beating the Dutch. Call me daft, but I can see Scotland doing just that.

it will ultimately depend on other results in the end though. :agree:

[Hibercelona]

It is ALL dependent on Scotland beating the Dutch. Call me daft, but I can see Scotland doing just that.

it will depend on other results in the end though. :agree:

If its not Scotland that lets us down, it will be the results.... or vice versa.

There will always be something. :boo hoo:

[Speedy]

Can someone work it out if we can still get through after the Dutch have gubbed us, after all that's what is gonna happen. :dizzy:

I may have got this wrong but here's my effort at it.

9th September

Norway v Macedonia draw
Slovenia(12) v Poland(12) draw
Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland(14)
Czech Republic(12) to beat San Marino(doesn't matter)

10th October

Slovakia to beat Slovenia(12)
Czech Republic(13) v Poland(13) draw

14th October

Czech Republic(14) v Northern Ireland(15) draw
Slovakia to win/draw v Poland(14)
Slovenia(15) to beat San Marino(doesn't matter again but don't want people accusing me of being unrealistic:greengrin)

Anyone fancy an accumulator?

There is probably a similar miracle available to us in the Portugal group as well.

Edit: I've added a running points total for the teams involved(not including the 6 points to be taken off). We also have much worse GD than all of these teams.

[PiemanP]

This is how the second placed teams are ranked after all of today's matches.

1. Russia-12 points from 5 matches
2. Croatia-11 points from 6 matches
3. France-11 points from 6 matches
4. Greece-10 points from 6 matches
5. Ireland-10 points from 6 matches
6. Scotland-10 points from 7 matches
7. Bosnia-9 points from 5 matches
8. N. Ireland-8 points from 6 matches
9. Hungary-7 points from 5 matches

There's still far too many permutations to be able to make any kind of solid predictions as to what may or may not happen. However, I would think that the country whose results we need to pay closest attention to, is Northern Ireland.

If we win on Wednesday, Northern Ireland would have to win their last 2 matches to overtake us.

If we don't win on Wednesday, it's basically curtains.


Theres so many different ways it could go, it would be impossible to pedict! Personally i'd like to see N Ireland make it to the finals as i think they were so so unlucky last time.

I think we should just concentrate on our own game against Holland, and even if we get a draw it should be considered a fantastic result :agree: Maybe the downside of todays win is that many fans are now looking to holland game and getting a wee bit carried away, when realistically the dutch are a far superior footballing side.

It would be great if we did it, but taking anything out of the Holland game will be a huge ask, especially without the creativeness of McFadden.

[Speedy]

Holland have only won their away games by 1 goal so it may be possible, if not we have we rely on my scenario in the other thread. It's probably more likely that we beat Holland than that happening though :boo hoo:

[Littlest Hobo]

:grr:This is far too complicated...I still don't have a bloody clue what's going on.

The most important men at the holland game will probably be the three mathematics professors in the Scotland dug-out.

:faf::thumbsup:

[Hibbyradge]

Scotland will lose on Wednesday.

Holland are much, much better in all areas of the pitch.

[Lucius Apuleius]

Reference FH's OP I don't think it ever looked quite good to be honest. since the Norway game we have known what we have to do. We are half way there. I reckon if we get the three on Wednesday (which I seriously doubt unfortunately) then I reckon we will be in the play offs. Everything cannot go against us surely.

[SlickShoes]

As much fun as this all is, i think the dutch could put out there under 19 side and take us to the cleaners. They can clearly afford to lose to us but its not going to happen, a gary caldwell OG will seal the deal late in the second half.

[HibeeUnderwood]

Could we still not qualify for the play offs if we drew on Wednesday:confused:

I mean fair enough go for the win, but a point would still be enough regardless of the Norway score surely?

The situation seems quite a complex one at the moment when you look at the other groups teams in second place.

[Bob1875]

Scotland will lose on Wednesday.

Holland are much, much better in all areas of the pitch.

So that's that then? I think we already knew that. But that's the case when Hibs play the old firm, but do we say that when we are about to play them? No

[Part/Time Supporter]

Somebody on the TAMB has worked out that we can actually have a play-off place confirmed on Wednesday night IF we beat Holland, giving us 13 points. All we would then need is........

Slovakia to beat Northern Ireland meaning they will win group 3. Northern Ireland could then only reach 17 points (-6 = 11)
Poland and Solvenia draw meaning the most they could get is 18 (-6 = 12)
Czech Republic are currently on a maximum of 18 (-6 = 12)

Time to get the ready reckoners out!

NI - Slovakia draw would also work.

[CentreLine]

I believe we need at least a point from the game against Holland because Norway will beat Macedonia. If we get that then we are second and I think we will scrape in to the play-off places. But if Norway and Macedonia draw then we can still make the play-offs so it is not all bad news.

C'mon Scotland!!!!!!

[Randerson_4]

I think that a draw on Wed would be a fantastic result, cos as people have said they could play a weakened team and still take us to the cleaners

But if we fail to make it by getting beat, drawing or evening winning on Wed its not down to that game. This campaign's been a disaster! I hope we dont just gloss over that by sneaking into the play-offs. We should have 2nd sealsed by now, I think of Norway at home, even away and even Macedonia away. We should have got more than 1 point out of those 3 games

[whiskyhibby]

Is this not all academic, as I see it there is no way we can qualify

I thought the best 8 2nd places in the groups played each other, we are 9th out of 9 at present, with a -9 goal difference to the next placed team who have three points more than us, even if we beat Holland 4-0 then we still need the other team (Hungary) to lose 6-0 at home to their groups bottom placed team.............Or am I missing something?

:devil::devil::devil::devil::devil:

[blackpoolhibs]

I think your figures are wrong, i thought i saw us sitting 6th or was it 7th on sky this morning. We need a win on wednesday to be certain of being able to qualify for a play off place. Personally i think that is beyond us.

[CropleyWasGod]

Maybe it's cos it's Sunday, but I'm thinking the OP is being ironic, given the 500 posts on the subject so far.

If you're not, mate, away and read them... and get a maths degree while you're at it. :wink:

[whiskyhibby]

I must admit I looked at 2 newspapers and both seemed to agree with the table standings

[Gus]

all the points won against the bottom placed teams in the groups don't count in all other groups apart from scotlands as they have one less team.

Hungary are bottom at the mo, scotland are 6th, Northern Ireland are actually below scotland, but they can still win there group.

this is where the problem is...other teams have 2 games left & scotland must win against Holland to put themselves in with a chance.

[fergal7]

Yes they definately can qualify....

The reality of the situation will be much different however. (cynical old fart smilie)

[davemcbain]

Have I been abducted by aliens and taken back to 1978?

We've blown it against some nonentities, and all we have to do to qualify is hump the mighty dutch.

Any minute now we'll have Willie Johnstone getting done for drugs and some erchie guaranteeing himself starts for the next 5 years even though he's already past it.

George Burley? Alan Hansen? Wierd plastic skin and a freaky smile....it's aliens alright.

[Sir Mixulot]

Yes. In all other groups since they have an extra team in them the points accumulated by the secind placed team against the team that comes last will be deducted. This is likely to mean 6 points off all those teams. Also goals scored/ conceded against the last placed team will be disregarded.
Northern Ireland and Boznia and Herzegonia are potential candidates for last placed second team along with Scotland. Actually a draw could be enough though Scotland would be very fortunate to go into the knock quialifiers with a points total of 11.

Personally I think, looking at future fixtures of all the teams, with Scotland's goal difference 12 points is required. Of course we can't get 12 so a win is probably needed.
Hopes that helps in some way.

[Sir David Gray]

As others have already said, Scotland are currently 6th in the table of 2nd placed teams.

The points total that the other eight teams have is calculated after the points they have won against the bottom team in their group are taken away.

1. Russia-12 points from 5 matches
2. Croatia-11 points from 6 matches
3. France-11 points from 6 matches
4. Greece-10 points from 6 matches
5. Ireland-10 points from 6 matches
6. Scotland-10 points from 7 matches
7. Bosnia-9 points from 5 matches
8. N. Ireland-8 points from 6 matches
9. Hungary-7 points from 5 matches

I would say that the best chance for us is if Northern Ireland stay 2nd in their group but don't win any of their remaining 2 matches.

For that to happen the results in group 3 would need to be;

Slovenia-Poland DRAW
Czech Republic-San Marino HOME WIN Ideally San Marino would win that one but there's absolutely no chance of that happening.
Northern Ireland-Slovakia AWAY WIN
Czech Republic-Poland DRAW
Slovakia-Slovenia HOME WIN
Czech Republic-Northern Ireland DRAW
Poland-Slovakia DRAW
San Marino-Slovenia AWAY WIN

Slovakia-23
Northern Ireland-15
Slovenia-15
Poland-14
Czech Republic-14
San Marino-0

Those set of results would see Scotland qualify for the play offs, even if we lose to the Netherlands. Although that is assuming that Norway and Macedonia ends as a draw. If there is a winner in that match, and Scotland lose, the winner will take 2nd place in our group which will eliminate us, regardless of what happens in any other group.

It's asking for an awful lot. Of course, our chances could be improved dramatically if we beat the Dutch but I really can't see that happening.

[Wakeyhibee]

As others have already said, Scotland are currently 6th in the table of 2nd placed teams.

The points total that the other eight teams have is calculated after the points they have won against the bottom team in their group are taken away.

1. Russia-12 points from 5 matches
2. Croatia-11 points from 6 matches
3. France-11 points from 6 matches
4. Greece-10 points from 6 matches
5. Ireland-10 points from 6 matches
6. Scotland-10 points from 7 matches
7. Bosnia-9 points from 5 matches
8. N. Ireland-8 points from 6 matches
9. Hungary-7 points from 5 matches

I would say that the best chance for us is if Northern Ireland stay 2nd in their group but don't win any of their remaining 2 matches.

For that to happen the results in group 3 would need to be;

Slovenia-Poland DRAW
Czech Republic-San Marino HOME WIN Ideally San Marino would win that one but there's absolutely no chance of that happening.
Northern Ireland-Slovakia AWAY WIN
Czech Republic-Poland DRAW
Slovakia-Slovenia HOME WIN
Czech Republic-Northern Ireland DRAW
Poland-Slovakia DRAW
San Marino-Slovenia AWAY WIN

Slovakia-23
Northern Ireland-15
Slovenia-15
Poland-14
Czech Republic-14
San Marino-0

Those set of results would see Scotland qualify for the play offs, even if we lose to the Netherlands. Although that is assuming that Norway and Macedonia ends as a draw. If there is a winner in that match, and Scotland lose, the winner will take 2nd place in our group which will eliminate us, regardless of what happens in any other group.

It's asking for an awful lot. Of course, our chances could be improved dramatically if we beat the Dutch but I really can't see that happening.

With a draw Group 1 is another possible however it would take the following

Wednesday, 9 September 2009 Albania v Denmark - N/A
Wednesday, 9 September 2009 Hungary v Portugal - Home/Draw
Wednesday, 9 September 2009 Malta v Sweden - N/A
Saturday, 10 October 2009 Denmark v Sweden - Home
Saturday, 10 October 2009 Portugal v Hungary - Home/Draw
Wednesday, 14 October 2009 Denmark v Hungary - Home
Wednesday, 14 October 2009 Portugal v Malta - N/A
Wednesday, 14 October 2009 Sweden v Albania - Draw

After removing points/GD v Malta, that would leave 2-4th on 10pts max each. Hungary/Portugal ties also has to be 2 home wins or 2 draws.
Anyone of the three reaching 11pts would have better goal difference.

[Danderhall Hibs]

FFS. I think I'll wait until Richard Gordon tells us when we're definitely out.

[crewetollhibee]

all the points won against the bottom placed teams in the groups don't count in all other groups apart from scotlands as they have one less team.

Hungary are bottom at the mo, scotland are 6th, Northern Ireland are actually below scotland, but they can still win there group.

this is where the problem is...other teams have 2 games left & scotland must win against Holland to put themselves in with a chance.
And thats just typical Scotland isn't it ? We manage to draw on Wednesday and still have to wait another 4 weeks awaiting other results ?!?! For chrissakes lets just beat them !!!

[JimBHibees]

Got to be said it seems very odd that the games in our group, do not finish on the same day as the other groups as the teams vying with us for a 2nd place will know for sure what they have to do in their last game. Doesnt seem right our group is finishing a month before the other groups. It would have made sense for us to be playing these games or at least our last game at the same time as the other groups.

[JimBHibees]

Don't think so, straight forward draw IIRC.

I am sure this was discussed on Radio Scotland a couple of months ago. UEFA have apparently left it open to make the draw seeded if they want to, or more likely when they know who is in it.

[The Green Goblin]

Scotland will lose on Wednesday.

Holland are much, much better in all areas of the pitch.

Is there a permutation where we win on Wednesday but don`t make the qualifying games as one of the best 2nd place teams? That seems the likeliest scenario, knowing us.

GG

[Hibs Giant]

Can we not get to the play-offs if Scotland lose tonight? Am I right in thinking that each team's postion in the group is determined by head-to-head after points? And that it'll be goal difference after points when we are compared to the runners up in other groups? Also that the points and goal diff. the other runners up gained in matches against the bottom team in their group will be discounted, seeing as we didn't have a san marino or similar to hammer?

Obviously a win will considerable improve our chances, but if a few results went our way in another group as well as in ours, we could be though on 10 points. No?

[iwasthere1972]

Can we not get to the play-offs if Scotland lose tonight? Am I right in thinking that each team's postion in the group is determined by head-to-head after points? And that it'll be goal difference after points when we are compared to the runners up in other groups? Also that the points and goal diff. the other runners up gained in matches against the bottom team in their group will be discounted, seeing as we didn't have a san marino or similar to hammer?

Obviously a win will considerable improve our chances, but if a few results went our way in another group as well as in ours, we could be though on 10 points. No?

Can't see us getting through with 10 points only when you consider our goal difference is currently standing at -4. No points tonight would mean our goal difference would be at least -5. A point in tonight's game maybe outside chance of play off but realistically I think we will need all 3 to have any chance.

[bighairyfaeleith]

I reckon we will win 4-1 tonight, I will net around £400 from willie.........




well more chance that than as actually qualifying for a world cup :agree:

[MacBean]

Could we still not qualify for the play offs if we drew on Wednesday:confused:

I mean fair enough go for the win, but a point would still be enough regardless of the Norway score surely?

The situation seems quite a complex one at the moment when you look at the other groups teams in second place.


we would finish second yes, but it would prove almost impossible for us to get into the play offs (top 8 of 9 go thru as mentioned in posts above), we really need a win!


nothing will matter unless we get a result tonight!!



:saltireflag:saltireflag:saltireflag:saltireflag:s altireflag:saltireflag:saltireflag:saltireflag:sal tireflag:saltireflag

[joe breezy]

The most important men at the holland game will probably be the three mathematics professors in the Scotland dug-out.

Will they be responsible for counting the plethora of goals scored against us?