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HibsNibs
30-04-2008, 12:20 PM
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7374730.stm

Good news IMHO - maybe I'll be able to afford a wee crash pad within walking distance of ER one day after all.

The cooler king
30-04-2008, 12:26 PM
The Bubbles Burst!!...although some on here would say its all lies!!!.......more FACTICIOUS Guff!!

McSwanky
30-04-2008, 12:33 PM
The market certainly needs to cool down a bit, the Government can't prop up these stupidly high prices for ever. FTBs have virtually no chance of buying a house just now.

This (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-ftb-average-house-price-to-earnings-ratio.php) kinda says it all for me.

CropleyWasGod
30-04-2008, 12:43 PM
1% fall in a year? So a house that was worth 100k a year ago is now worth, um, 99k. Hardly a crash.

It's the use of such hyperbole that creates panic and fear in people.

HibsNibs
30-04-2008, 12:47 PM
yeah but (no but) - look at the graph on that link, it's like stepping off a cliff

McSwanky
30-04-2008, 12:47 PM
1% fall in a year? So a house that was worth 100k a year ago is now worth, um, 99k. Hardly a crash.

It's the use of such hyperbole that creates panic and fear in people.

First annual fall for a very long time though, and compared to about a 10% year-on-year rise in July/August last year, it's a big turnaround.

Could be the start of a (much needed) re-alignment of house prices and salaries, i.e. a fairly substantial drop in prices.

lyonhibs
30-04-2008, 12:50 PM
1% fall in a year? So a house that was worth 100k a year ago is now worth, um, 99k. Hardly a crash.

It's the use of such hyperbole that creates panic and fear in people.

Absolutely - the word "crash" engenieers images of a 4 bedroom detached house in SW1 being worth 15.

Total hyperbole - the housing market is constricting and slowing down.

People will moan either way - housing market booming, prices are too expensive, I can't get onto the property market or - after this price crash which we're all subject to (apparently) it'll be "no bank will give me a mortgage and there's no way I can get on the proprty ladder"

McSwanky
30-04-2008, 12:50 PM
Here's another graph (from the BBC) illustrating what I said in my last post. The boom times of house price rises are definitely over, the question is will this graph continue moving south as it has done up till now?

Phil D. Rolls
30-04-2008, 12:50 PM
Edinburgh prices never fall, they plateau.

The bargains will be out in the sticks, where prices were getting silly last year.

Little Miss Perfect
30-04-2008, 04:17 PM
http://newsvote.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7374730.stm

Good news IMHO - maybe I'll be able to afford a wee crash pad within walking distance of ER one day after all.


I've a lovely flat you can have, 10 minutes to ER by bus,Fixed price with some cash back thrown in :greengrin

CropleyWasGod
30-04-2008, 04:21 PM
yeah but (no but) - look at the graph on that link, it's like stepping off a cliff

See graphs? See statistics?

That graph is actually showing the fact that the rate of increase in house prices is slowing down. House prices are still going up, albeit at a slower rate, until the very end of the period shown when they fall slightly.


:nerd:

jonty
30-04-2008, 04:44 PM
Funnily enough, I got a call today from my mortgage provider. Although they weren't dropping the interest rates yet, they did point out a couple of ways I could drop .25% straight away.

Its on the One Account and all I had to do was drop my 'facility' (available amount on the account compared to the last valuation) by a few hundred pounds (which sits there unused anyway).

Perhaps they're worried about customers leaving - but nice of them to call regardless :agree:

PC Stamp
30-04-2008, 08:22 PM
Edinburgh prices never fall, they plateau.

The bargains will be out in the sticks, where prices were getting silly last year.

That's about the size of it. The figures will be heavily influenced by what happens in the South of England where prices are astronomical.

matty_f
01-05-2008, 11:25 AM
That's about the size of it. The figures will be heavily influenced by what happens in the South of England where prices are astronomical.

:agree:

Even out here in the Dumf, the houses are at least holding their value, with many actually still increasing.

McSwanky
01-05-2008, 11:33 AM
:agree:

Even out here in the Dumf, the houses are at least holding their value, with many actually still increasing.

Scotland does tend to lag behind the rest of the UK as a whole though.

It's all down to supply and demand at the end of the day, if FTBs can't get the 5x salary, 100% mortgages any more nobody's going to buy flats at that price => prices come down => second time buyers can't afford to pay as much => prices come down, etc etc.

The first link I posted is the more pertinent one, FTBs can't go on buying flats at 5x their salary (especially with lenders being a bit more 'responsible' these days), so prices at best have to level off, at worst they will fall considerably.

The housing market is unsustainable as it is, something has to give.

Brando7
01-05-2008, 11:59 AM
Cashback on your property is looking like a major incentive for people selling the now so people not having a big deposit to put down can now rely on getting some extra money to increase their deposit

HibsNibs
01-05-2008, 07:42 PM
See graphs? See statistics?

That graph is actually showing the fact that the rate of increase in house prices is slowing down. House prices are still going up, albeit at a slower rate, until the very end of the period shown when they fall slightly.


:nerd:

http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=10604695&postcount=56

what he said

CropleyWasGod
01-05-2008, 08:14 PM
http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showpost.html?p=10604695&postcount=56

what he said

That graph says the same.

Sergio sledge
02-05-2008, 08:43 AM
yeah but (no but) - look at the graph on that link, it's like stepping off a cliff

That graph is very misleading, I don't know why they decided to do it like that. It would have been better to show an average house price graph which would have been an increasing line until the very last couple of months, where it would have dropped slightly. Even if they'd just showed more of the negative side so that people would understand that is is only showing a drop at the very end.

Have a read of this (http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/Apr_2008.pdf), it suggests that the "crash," certainly for the housing market is not as bad as some people are making out, and that it will not get as bad as it has before, mainly because of the Bank of England's actions to boost the market and improve rates for mortgages. Also due to the fact more people are on fixed rate mortgages just now than were in previous crashes. There's certainly a downturn, but that was always bound to happen. Some people are totally scaremongering though. I look at the housing market much like Hibs.net, there are the Happy Clappers - "This is only a blip, everything will be ok." The Doom and Gloomers - "The world is coming to an end, we're all doomed." And the inbetweeners - "There is a downturn in the market, and a re-aligning of house prices to salaries, but it was always going to happen, and won't be as bad as the crash is the 90's."

Look at the graphs at the bottom of that link I posted, this is a more clear and understandable graph:

McSwanky
02-05-2008, 08:53 AM
See that graph though? It starts in 1998. Conveniently just after the trough of the last housing crash. So aye, they've been rising steadily since then, but that doesn't mean they're going to keep going that way.

I'll see your Nationwide graph and raise you this (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-average-house-price.php)

:wink:

Edit: I do agree that the BBC graph is a bit misleading, but it does tell its own story - that the boom times of 10% rises year-on-year appear to be over.

Sergio sledge
02-05-2008, 09:50 AM
See that graph though? It starts in 1998. Conveniently just after the trough of the last housing crash. So aye, they've been rising steadily since then, but that doesn't mean they're going to keep going that way.

I'll see your Nationwide graph and raise you this (http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-average-house-price.php)

:wink:

Edit: I do agree that the BBC graph is a bit misleading, but it does tell its own story - that the boom times of 10% rises year-on-year appear to be over.

Nice graph, good effort. :greengrin Although, a slightly less colourful version of same is in the link that I posted :wink:

I know that that one I posted starts in 1998, however it does give a clearer picture of what is actually happening than the other one which requires you to think about it a little bit in order to realise that it doesn't in fact show a huge steep drop in prices that it looks like at first glance. Also, I'm not trying to say that everything is ok, because I pretty much agree with what you said earlier,


Could be the start of a (much needed) re-alignment of house prices and salaries

I'm just trying to show that its not as bad as it is being made out to be by some people, especially by graphs like the original one...:wink:

Crossgates Hibs
02-05-2008, 03:01 PM
:soapbox::soapbox::soapbox:Good post. The whole housing bubble has been held up with liar loans and banks throwing money at people who have no means of paying it back.:brickwall I think we will go back to a more sensible level of 3 times earnings for a single and 2 1/2 for a couple. Houses have risen more than people have earned which is crazy and unsustainable and IMHO house prices must fall at least 30% if not more for the market to get back to reality.
Houses are not a measure of wealth but somewhere to live and basic shelter. They are grossley overpriced and i feel for people who have loaned on the value of their houses thinking they only ever go up or indeed anyone who has bought in the last 3 years as they are most likely to suffer in this pyramid selling scam that is the house market.:grr:
I have been reading a site called housepricecrash.co.uk for a while now and find it scary how the banks and the goverment have been conning us for so long now. :blah:

majorhibs
02-05-2008, 03:07 PM
Not read it all as I dont have the time- but FTB? Is that no wallace mercer? :dunno:

Crossgates Hibs
02-05-2008, 03:18 PM
Absolutely - the word "crash" engenieers images of a 4 bedroom detached house in SW1 being worth 15.

Total hyperbole - the housing market is constricting and slowing down.

People will moan either way - housing market booming, prices are too expensive, I can't get onto the property market or - after this price crash which we're all subject to (apparently) it'll be "no bank will give me a mortgage and there's no way I can get on the proprty ladder"


I see your point but the way prices went up ie 200% in so many years and wages did not match is very worrying. Now that banks wont give out liar loans that they have been and that first time buyers are priced out the market can only go one way and thats down. I can see 3 to 4 years of falls now about 30 to 50 % off the price of a property and loads of repossesions and misery. All because the banks got greedy and the goverment loved the false wealth it thought it was creating. We have lived the good times its now payback time what goes up must come down im afraid. Prices must come down in relation to earning it always has and always will in the long run of things.:soapbox:

lyonhibs
02-05-2008, 03:41 PM
I see your point but the way prices went up ie 200% in so many years and wages did not match is very worrying. Now that banks wont give out liar loans that they have been and that first time buyers are priced out the market can only go one way and thats down. I can see 3 to 4 years of falls now about 30 to 50 % off the price of a property and loads of repossesions and misery. All because the banks got greedy and the goverment loved the false wealth it thought it was creating. We have lived the good times its now payback time what goes up must come down im afraid. Prices must come down in relation to earning it always has and always will in the long run of things.:soapbox:

And this is a bad thing?? And are the banks 100% culpable for these liar loans?? I assume - followign a simple supply/demand relationship - that if the british public had actually done a bit of background research/budgeting before walking into a high street bank and getting a mortgage/loan then they'd have seen through these "liar loans" and this problem wouldn't have arisen to this extent. The average stupidity of "Joe Public" is as much to blame for this - IMO - as is the fact that private banks offered a supply of services to willing and ill-informed (their own fault IMO) customers.

The eternal "blame someone else for the fact I'm in debt" convention appears to be being applied far too unilaterally here IMO.

And no, I don't work for a bank :greengrin

Crossgates Hibs
03-05-2008, 11:03 AM
And this is a bad thing?? And are the banks 100% culpable for these liar loans?? I assume - followign a simple supply/demand relationship - that if the british public had actually done a bit of background research/budgeting before walking into a high street bank and getting a mortgage/loan then they'd have seen through these "liar loans" and this problem wouldn't have arisen to this extent. The average stupidity of "Joe Public" is as much to blame for this - IMO - as is the fact that private banks offered a supply of services to willing and ill-informed (their own fault IMO) customers.

The eternal "blame someone else for the fact I'm in debt" convention appears to be being applied far too unilaterally here IMO.

And no, I don't work for a bank :greengrin



No its good that the prices come down to affordable levels. I get mad when i see Gordon Brown trying to protect his housing bubble and keep prices up but at the same time trying to get first time buyers to invest in a lifetime of debt slavery.:grr:

Just let it correct itself and and stop wasting our money helping the banks who caused all this mess in the first place. Its like rewarding complete failure no other organisation would get such help. It is time as you say for people to stop trying to live like posh and Becks and take responsibility for their own actions as well, but my god has banks etc made it easy or what to get money without any proof of being able to pay it back totally crazy state of affairs still get people offering me loans on the phone now.:brickwall

SlickShoes
05-05-2008, 02:44 PM
And this is a bad thing?? And are the banks 100% culpable for these liar loans?? I assume - followign a simple supply/demand relationship - that if the british public had actually done a bit of background research/budgeting before walking into a high street bank and getting a mortgage/loan then they'd have seen through these "liar loans" and this problem wouldn't have arisen to this extent. The average stupidity of "Joe Public" is as much to blame for this - IMO - as is the fact that private banks offered a supply of services to willing and ill-informed (their own fault IMO) customers.

The eternal "blame someone else for the fact I'm in debt" convention appears to be being applied far too unilaterally here IMO.

And no, I don't work for a bank :greengrin

You are being overly harsh, i bought my house 2 years ago now and if prices crash and i get shafted and make a massive loss, its my own stupidity?

I took my mortgage because i needed somewhere to live and didnt fancy paying rent for the rest of my life and getting nothing in return, the house prices were allready crazy yet everyone who bought in the last 2 years or so will suffer from this and every one else probably wont lose out too much. To say that im stupid for putting a roof over my head is ridiculous.

Crossgates Hibs
05-05-2008, 11:52 PM
You are being overly harsh, i bought my house 2 years ago now and if prices crash and i get shafted and make a massive loss, its my own stupidity?

I took my mortgage because i needed somewhere to live and didnt fancy paying rent for the rest of my life and getting nothing in return, the house prices were allready crazy yet everyone who bought in the last 2 years or so will suffer from this and every one else probably wont lose out too much. To say that im stupid for putting a roof over my head is ridiculous.

Dont look at your house as money or investment but as a home. As long as you dont need to sell then you wont be shafted or lose out. Take the long term view that houses will go up and come down. Its not a good thing having high house prices as it does not benefit anyone. :dunno:

SlickShoes
06-05-2008, 08:16 AM
Dont look at your house as money or investment but as a home. As long as you dont need to sell then you wont be shafted or lose out. Take the long term view that houses will go up and come down. Its not a good thing having high house prices as it does not benefit anyone. :dunno:

I do look at it as a home but if i need to move any time soon and make a loss i have lost the deposit i saved up years to get so i could actually have a home! Thats the worst thing about it, i dont really care about making a profit when the money im paying to my mortgage and the deposit i saved years for is just gone.

McSwanky
29-05-2008, 11:51 AM
Latest figures are out from the Nationwide.....

http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/historical/May_2008.pdf

fergal7
29-05-2008, 02:00 PM
Its not that long ago when we were having to deal with 15% interest rates and negative equity everywhere.

Peaks and troughs, its called an economy.

Edinburgh's prices have gone up 2.5% in the first quarter of this year, hardly a crisis.

The real crisis is that there will never be affordable housing for the young and I will never get rid of my kids.:boo hoo:

Lucius Apuleius
30-05-2008, 08:40 AM
Its not that long ago when we were having to deal with 15% interest rates and negative equity everywhere.

Peaks and troughs, its called an economy.

Edinburgh's prices have gone up 2.5% in the first quarter of this year, hardly a crisis.

The real crisis is that there will never be affordable housing for the young and I will never get rid of my kids.:boo hoo:


:agree: Although I have managed to get rid of my kids!!!!!! However, only speaking from a personal viewpoint, my first house ('79) was three times my wife's and my joint salary. A 2 bedroomed semi. An extra 3 grand would have bought me a four bedroomed bungalow two doors away ( a new estate) Could we find 3 grand? Could we hell. Interst rates went up to aforementioned 15%. Income halved coz the missus sprogged. Bloody hard times I can tell you. Anyway, where I am coming from is there is no way the house I am living in now is worth three times our joint salary so personally I think things (through our way anyway) are about right. If interest rates go back through the roof I would guess people should be a lot more worried than what appears at the minute to be a small downturn in the market.

heretoday
01-06-2008, 12:08 PM
It's a buyers' market all right, although not for FTBs yet. The ESPC guide is like a telephone directory at the moment.

Crossgates Hibs
02-06-2008, 08:53 AM
It's a buyers' market all right, although not for FTBs yet. The ESPC guide is like a telephone directory at the moment.


It will take time all this Edinburgh will never crash is total rubbish. Everywhere in Britain will crash now that easy credit has been taken away. It will start with desperate sellers lowering prices and once unemployment comes in it will spiral. Its terrible that people have gotten into this situation of being able to borrow six times salary just to get on the market. There is so many people who have lied about income just to get on market that are going to suffer as they have so little lee way when prices go up. Its time we had the tried and trusted measures of how much you can borrow (3 time salary 2 and half couples) which are coming back and house prices will shift in time to reflect that.
Labour are trying everything to keep the miricle econmy going but this time its had its day. The goverment should have stepped in years ago but didnt as people spent money they didnt have keeping the lie that is the econmy going. Now because of all this house prices will fall about 30% in the next few years and flats and new builds possibly more.:dunno:

fergal7
02-06-2008, 09:19 AM
It will take time all this Edinburgh will never crash is total rubbish. Everywhere in Britain will crash now that easy credit has been taken away. It will start with desperate sellers lowering prices and once unemployment comes in it will spiral. Its terrible that people have gotten into this situation of being able to borrow six times salary just to get on the market. There is so many people who have lied about income just to get on market that are going to suffer as they have so little lee way when prices go up. Its time we had the tried and trusted measures of how much you can borrow (3 time salary 2 and half couples) which are coming back and house prices will shift in time to reflect that.
Labour are trying everything to keep the miricle econmy going but this time its had its day. The goverment should have stepped in years ago but didnt as people spent money they didnt have keeping the lie that is the econmy going. Now because of all this house prices will fall about 30% in the next few years and flats and new builds possibly more.:dunno:

I dont think Edinburgh's prices will drop as its poulation is increasing and house prices are below the national average.

Peevemor
02-06-2008, 09:30 AM
Scotland does tend to lag behind the rest of the UK as a whole though.

It's all down to supply and demand at the end of the day, if FTBs can't get the 5x salary, 100% mortgages any more nobody's going to buy flats at that price => prices come down => second time buyers can't afford to pay as much => prices come down, etc etc.

The first link I posted is the more pertinent one, FTBs can't go on buying flats at 5x their salary (especially with lenders being a bit more 'responsible' these days), so prices at best have to level off, at worst they will fall considerably.

The housing market is unsustainable as it is, something has to give.

The system here in France works pretty well IMHO. By law, the total of your loan repayments cannot exceed 35% (maybe 33% I can't remember) of your income (joint income where applicable). Mortgages can be adapted to ensure you stay within this - for example, my own mortgage repayments will increase around 18 months from now when my car loan is finished.

People can also vary the length of their mortgage accordingly. Someone on their 20s may take a mortgage for say 35-40 years initially, though many people manage around 15 years, thus reducing the total interest paid.

Nearly all property here is sold for a fixed price on a first come first served basis, therefore the whole thing is fairly straightforward. You go to the bank, you leave knowing exactly how much you can borrow and can then confidently search for a property within your means.

SlickShoes
02-06-2008, 09:51 AM
The system here in France works pretty well IMHO. By law, the total of your loan repayments cannot exceed 35% (maybe 33% I can't remember) of your income (joint income where applicable). Mortgages can be adapted to ensure you stay within this - for example, my own mortgage repayments will increase around 18 months from now when my car loan is finished.

People can also vary the length of their mortgage accordingly. Someone on their 20s may take a mortgage for say 35-40 years initially, though many people manage around 15 years, thus reducing the total interest paid.

Nearly all property here is sold for a fixed price on a first come first served basis, therefore the whole thing is fairly straightforward. You go to the bank, you leave knowing exactly how much you can borrow and can then confidently search for a property within your means.

That makes so much sense, when i move next ill be trying to go down a fixed price route, last time i wasted so much time and money on this offers over rubbish we have here. Its like a stupid version of an auction since they dont even tell youw hat other people are bidding, you just put in an offer and get told yes or no you dont get told if your even close to what they want or anything it makes no sense!

Much more sensible saying 'this is the price' then you know what you can and cant afford!

Crossgates Hibs
02-06-2008, 11:54 AM
I dont think Edinburgh's prices will drop as its poulation is increasing and house prices are below the national average.

Edinburghs prices are not behind the national average. England is crashing and population is going up quicker than Scotland. The main point of all this is the withdrawl of easy credit which means nobody can afford housing unless they earn about 60k a year. Whats the average wage in Edinburgh? Houses are vastly overpriced and a fall is on the way hence the reason so many fixed prices and nothing moving. :blah:

Unless im mistaken and most people in Edinburgh earn 60k which i doubt and all the stories of debt are exaggerated there is going to be a crash. Last time Edinburgh was untouched as it had not risen so badly but this time everywhere has got out of control. :agree:

mixumatosis
02-06-2008, 05:07 PM
It will take time all this Edinburgh will never crash is total rubbish. Everywhere in Britain will crash now that easy credit has been taken away. It will start with desperate sellers lowering prices and once unemployment comes in it will spiral. Its terrible that people have gotten into this situation of being able to borrow six times salary just to get on the market. There is so many people who have lied about income just to get on market that are going to suffer as they have so little lee way when prices go up. Its time we had the tried and trusted measures of how much you can borrow (3 time salary 2 and half couples) which are coming back and house prices will shift in time to reflect that.
Labour are trying everything to keep the miricle econmy going but this time its had its day. The goverment should have stepped in years ago but didnt as people spent money they didnt have keeping the lie that is the econmy going. Now because of all this house prices will fall about 30% in the next few years and flats and new builds possibly more.:dunno:

Sorry, but I haven't the least sympathy for anyone who's lied about their income to get a mortgage that they should have been wise enough to realise they couldn't afford. So the Govt is the devil for keeping the "lie that is the economy going" but it's "terrible" for someone who's lied and got themselves in too deep ?
Buying a house is the largest investment most people will ever make and should be done with a degree of caution. What you borrow should be calculated according to what you can afford based on a worst case scenario, ie: Can I still afford this if rates go up, or if my income falls.

Crossgates Hibs
02-06-2008, 06:39 PM
Sorry, but I haven't the least sympathy for anyone who's lied about their income to get a mortgage that they should have been wise enough to realise they couldn't afford. So the Govt is the devil for keeping the "lie that is the economy going" but it's "terrible" for someone who's lied and got themselves in too deep ?
Buying a house is the largest investment most people will ever make and should be done with a degree of caution. What you borrow should be calculated according to what you can afford based on a worst case scenario, ie: Can I still afford this if rates go up, or if my income falls.


Im not sympathetic as i rented when i realised i couldnt buy anything decent. However the goverment has pushed and still is pushing home ownership. They kept the bubble going cause it benefitted them. We all see property porn on the telly all the time even people my parents age say property only ever goes up. So much pressure to get on the market thinking you cant lose when in reality you can. Yes there are idiots who deserve all they get but because of this bubble there will be others who lose everything from it unemployment etc which could have been avoided. I want a crash to sensible levels but it should have never got to this level.:blah:

Sauzee07
06-06-2008, 12:41 PM
Edinburgh prices never fall, they plateau.


I dont think Edinburgh's prices will drop

Prices have already fallen in Edinburgh. There are more fixed price deals and less offers over (this is the first sign of a slowdown). I have a friend who has shaved 30,000 off his asking price and is still waiting for an offer. I know several other people who are in the same boat and cannot sell their properties at this time.

What goes up can come down. Edinburgh is not protected from simple economics.

Little Miss Perfect
06-06-2008, 04:39 PM
Prices have already fallen in Edinburgh. There are more fixed price deals and less offers over (this is the first sign of a slowdown). I have a friend who has shaved 30,000 off his asking price and is still waiting for an offer. I know several other people who are in the same boat and cannot sell their properties at this time.

What goes up can come down. Edinburgh is not protected from simple economics.

Guy doing my removals today had to shave 20k off his asking price to sell his flat.

Mines was overpriced when it went up for sale, i knew it was but you listen to your solicitor eh? I then told them told them to drop my price after 3 1/2 weeks and only 1 viewer, I dropped 5k off and sold it at the end of that week.

I too know people toiling to sell properties now, ones you know would have been snaffled up earlier onin the year, but IMO some are still overpriced. Prices are definately coming down :agree:

Crossgates Hibs
07-06-2008, 10:53 AM
Guy doing my removals today had to shave 20k off his asking price to sell his flat.

Mines was overpriced when it went up for sale, i knew it was but you listen to your solicitor eh? I then told them told them to drop my price after 3 1/2 weeks and only 1 viewer, I dropped 5k off and sold it at the end of that week.

I too know people toiling to sell properties now, ones you know would have been snaffled up earlier onin the year, but IMO some are still overpriced. Prices are definately coming down :agree:



You done well and that drop of price will seem nothing in 6 months as people are dropping 40k to shift over priced properties. Anyone who believes it wont crash are only deluding themselves. There is no easy credit anymore intrest rates will rise and the old houses are a good investment will be history as they keep falling. :blah:

NaeTechnoHibby
07-06-2008, 04:52 PM
:agree: Although I have managed to get rid of my kids!!!!!! However, only speaking from a personal viewpoint, my first house ('79) was three times my wife's and my joint salary. A 2 bedroomed semi. An extra 3 grand would have bought me a four bedroomed bungalow two doors away ( a new estate) Could we find 3 grand? Could we hell. Interst rates went up to aforementioned 15%. Income halved coz the missus sprogged. Bloody hard times I can tell you. Anyway, where I am coming from is there is no way the house I am living in now is worth three times our joint salary so personally I think things (through our way anyway) are about right. If interest rates go back through the roof I would guess people should be a lot more worried than what appears at the minute to be a small downturn in the market.


Me too :agree:

My wee flat is worth more than more than I could ever raise against my salery now, and I only have five years of mortgage left :thumbsup:

Sit tight peeps :agree:

I work in property advertising and, it is slower than a year ago.

Prices have been falling for the last six months IMO.

However, there are no cheapos around, unless you earn 30K+ to buy a first flat :bitchy:

The problem is we dinnae earn enough :agree:

Pete
08-06-2008, 09:38 PM
People have this valuation figure put on their property based on previous sales in the area and are extremely reluctant to sell for less.
I've been studying the market for a few months now and it's amazing how stupid and stubborn some people are.I'm sure some of them live on the planet zanussi. In reality, a house is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Less buyers means people are a lot more picky. It's simple...if you don't drop your asking price you're not going to sell your house unless it's something special.

I'm not sure about all this "40% drop" talk, but there is definately some downward movement in Edinburgh...even more so in Fife. I just feel sorry for all those people who bought houses without a sizeable deposit within the last few years....all they want do do is own their own homes. However, I hope the buy-to-let investors get everything they deserve.

fergal7
09-06-2008, 07:45 AM
People have this valuation figure put on their property based on previous sales in the area and are extremely reluctant to sell for less.
I've been studying the market for a few months now and it's amazing how stupid and stubborn some people are.I'm sure some of them live on the planet zanussi. In reality, a house is only worth what someone is willing to pay for it. Less buyers means people are a lot more picky. It's simple...if you don't drop your asking price you're not going to sell your house unless it's something special.

I'm not sure about all this "40% drop" talk, but there is definately some downward movement in Edinburgh...even more so in Fife. I just feel sorry for all those people who bought houses without a sizeable deposit within the last few years....all they want do do is own their own homes. However, I hope the buy-to-let investors get everything they deserve.


Why:confused: Can you not afford to buy a house ? Why so bitter against people trying to make a few bob legally?

I am not a buy to let investor.

Crossgates Hibs
09-06-2008, 07:39 PM
[/b]


Why:confused: Can you not afford to buy a house ? Why so bitter against people trying to make a few bob legally?

I am not a buy to let investor.


Its those people who have pushed the market beyond the means of the first time buyer thinking they would make easy money. Lots of them are fools that consumed by greed didnt even view what they bought, used liar loans to buy and are heading for a massive fall. All these new build flats which should have went to first time buyers will more likely be repossesed and be the slums of the future. Roll on the day where an ordinary wage earner can buy somewhere to live at sensible levels without lying about income to get somewhere. :grr:

Pete
09-06-2008, 09:06 PM
[/B]


Why:confused: Can you not afford to buy a house ? Why so bitter against people trying to make a few bob legally?

I am not a buy to let investor.


It's legal but it's ultimately at the expense of others...i.e. people who view a house as somewhere to live. I have to admit that being outbid on houses only to see "to let" signs up a few weeks later has left me a little bitter.
The way I see it people have three basic needs: food, water and shelter. The way "shelter" has been allowed to go is an absolute disgrace. Any institution that truly wanted to do something about this inequality could do so at a stroke but we all know why they don't do it. Chances are your MP, MSP, MEP and councillor all have tidy wee portfolios sitting making them money.

Crossgates Hibs
11-06-2008, 08:50 PM
ESPC has a third more properties than it did last year and how many are selling? Not many. There is no cheap credit therefore no houses within reach of ordinary people. With interest rates rising again soon i can see the market crashing 50% and repossesions at a level unprecedented. It amazes me how many people are living on the edge and paying bills by credit card. It cant go on 3 years of falls in the market which could have been stopped by the current prime minister.(Tube):brickwall

Lucius Apuleius
12-06-2008, 03:12 PM
If housing crashes by 50%, which I have to be honest I do not see happening, then all that will happen is those who can afford it will buy them up. The prices will start to rise again and they will make a killing. I reckon.

SlickShoes
12-06-2008, 03:18 PM
If housing crashes by 50%, which I have to be honest I do not see happening, then all that will happen is those who can afford it will buy them up. The prices will start to rise again and they will make a killing. I reckon.

Sounds about right, the poorer folk get turfed out the house is sold for buttons and some "property developer" buys it and sells it again in a few years once the market is stable again, easy money.

Crossgates Hibs
12-06-2008, 06:12 PM
I dont think we will see prices go mad for another 8 years. It all depends on interest rates which will need to go up as inflation bites. Whatever happens it looks like tough times ahead. Goverment and banks just got too greedy and its Joe public who suffers and pays.:boo hoo:
House prices will drop everywhere this will be a lot worse than the early nineties as there is so much public debt this time. Building trade has ground to a halt. Estate agents doing no buisness (shame not) shops dead as people have less to spend and as a nation we have little industry we export nothing hardly so we will suffer. This goverment has screwed everyone because of their greed and short term thinking. All they do is blame the credit crunch which they created and make out its from America. Never again will i vote for a Labour goverment this country will be suffering for the next ten years thanks to them.:grr:

Lucius Apuleius
13-06-2008, 05:50 AM
I dont think we will see prices go mad for another 8 years. It all depends on interest rates which will need to go up as inflation bites. Whatever happens it looks like tough times ahead. Goverment and banks just got too greedy and its Joe public who suffers and pays.:boo hoo:
House prices will drop everywhere this will be a lot worse than the early nineties as there is so much public debt this time. Building trade has ground to a halt. Estate agents doing no buisness (shame not) shops dead as people have less to spend and as a nation we have little industry we export nothing hardly so we will suffer. This goverment has screwed everyone because of their greed and short term thinking. All they do is blame the credit crunch which they created and make out its from America. Never again will i vote for a Labour goverment this country will be suffering for the next ten years thanks to them.:grr:


Everybody entitled to their views obviously mate and I don't know how old you are either but if you remember life under Thatcher and mortgage interest rates jumping I seem to recall 3% in one day, plus interest rates of 15% then there is no way I want to see the Tories back in power, no matter how much I despise New Labour. Nearly cost me my first house when rates went from 6% to 15%.
I am still not convinced it is going to be as bad as you predict. Some financial gurus are advising to buy now. Property has always been a relatively safe haven for money as long as you don't depend on it as a saving if you see what I mean, and I think long term it still will be.

NaeTechnoHibby
14-06-2008, 01:16 AM
Everybody entitled to their views obviously mate and I don't know how old you are either but if you remember life under Thatcher and mortgage interest rates jumping I seem to recall 3% in one day, plus interest rates of 15% then there is no way I want to see the Tories back in power, no matter how much I despise New Labour. Nearly cost me my first house when rates went from 6% to 15%.
I am still not convinced it is going to be as bad as you predict. Some financial gurus are advising to buy now. Property has always been a relatively safe haven for money as long as you don't depend on it as a saving if you see what I mean, and I think long term it still will be.


Not as bad, I think, but it is definately slowing down :agree:

I felt the pinch too then GT, hence where I live now.

It's been 15 years of 'growth' to many, but us auld heid's ken some things :agree:

Crossgates Hibs
17-06-2008, 11:52 PM
Everybody entitled to their views obviously mate and I don't know how old you are either but if you remember life under Thatcher and mortgage interest rates jumping I seem to recall 3% in one day, plus interest rates of 15% then there is no way I want to see the Tories back in power, no matter how much I despise New Labour. Nearly cost me my first house when rates went from 6% to 15%.
I am still not convinced it is going to be as bad as you predict. Some financial gurus are advising to buy now. Property has always been a relatively safe haven for money as long as you don't depend on it as a saving if you see what I mean, and I think long term it still will be.

Im 37 and remember my Mum and Dad struggling to pay their mortgage under Thatcher HOWEVER it is different this time. There was little liar loans that exist nowadays. It was not so pressured to be a house owner in those days as is now with your generation who think its win win with property as those days are gone for a while. Yes there were 15% interest rates but lending was far more sensible no loans 8 times the value of a house. At the way things are going we may see interest rates to double figures anyway. The housing market is vastly overpriced and will drop in price but not get cheaper as interest rates will take care of that but will ruin the lives of many.
This goverment has ramped property and the whole econmy was based on house prices till now hence the reason its going wrong now. There is no solution and anyone that buys a goverment shared property needs their head looking at. Why is it out of reach for most to have shelter over them we are like a third world country at present? Who can afford housing at todays prices with a 3 times salary loan? It wasnt like that in your day or my parents day. You need to be earning about 50k to buy a basic flat in Edinburgh how many earn that sort of dosh?
We are looking at a big crash and sadly it has got to this but it needs to happen as high house prices do not benfit anyone who just want a roof over their heads. As for buy to lets enjoy your second property im sure it has been a great investment if bought in last few years not.
Sorry to rant on but personel debt is so much higher these days and encouraging property just now is ok for the people in their 50s where it has been a great investment now it is just a milestone round the neck that leaves you skint. When prices come down 30 to 40 % i may look at buying but for now i will rent and save so that one day it may be viable for me to enter the market. As for New Labour they will be hated more than the Tories ever were by my generation when people wake up and see the mess they have been encouraged by this goverment to get into to keep the housing bubble inflated.:brickwall

Now For This
18-06-2008, 12:19 AM
Im 37 and remember my Mum and Dad struggling to pay their mortgage under Thatcher HOWEVER it is different this time. There was little liar loans that exist nowadays. It was not so pressured to be a house owner in those days as is now with your generation who think its win win with property as those days are gone for a while. Yes there were 15% interest rates but lending was far more sensible no loans 8 times the value of a house. At the way things are going we may see interest rates to double figures anyway. The housing market is vastly overpriced and will drop in price but not get cheaper as interest rates will take care of that but will ruin the lives of many.
This goverment has ramped property and the whole econmy was based on house prices till now hence the reason its going wrong now. There is no solution and anyone that buys a goverment shared property needs their head looking at. Why is it out of reach for most to have shelter over them we are like a third world country at present? Who can afford housing at todays prices with a 3 times salary loan? It wasnt like that in your day or my parents day. You need to be earning about 50k to buy a basic flat in Edinburgh how many earn that sort of dosh?
We are looking at a big crash and sadly it has got to this but it needs to happen as high house prices do not benfit anyone who just want a roof over their heads. As for buy to lets enjoy your second property im sure it has been a great investment if bought in last few years not.
Sorry to rant on but personel debt is so much higher these days and encouraging property just now is ok for the people in their 50s where it has been a great investment now it is just a milestone round the neck that leaves you skint. When prices come down 30 to 40 % i may look at buying but for now i will rent and save so that one day it may be viable for me to enter the market. As for New Labour they will be hated more than the Tories ever were by my generation when people wake up and see the mess they have been encouraged by this goverment to get into to keep the housing bubble inflated.:brickwall

I think you will find that it was the tories who went all out to encourage owner/occupiers. It was after all the tories who introduced MIRAS and it was Labour who withdrew MIRAS.

No-one is forcing anyone to buy an house, no-one is forcing anyone to sell their house, no-one has a right to be able to afford to buy an house. It's all simple economics and to try and blame the current Government for a slowdown in house prices that all the experts say was inevitable at some point seems rather odd.

It is thanks to the current Government's introduction of tax credits and lower rates of income tax that so many people have been able to buy houses on relatively low incomes. Around where I live there are tons of single parents and people in low paid un-skilled work who have been able to buy their own home, under the tories these people would still be renting and probably at the mercy of dodgy private landlords.

For anyone unhappy about the value of their house going down, remember that it is only a loss if you realise that loss by selling.

Lucius Apuleius
18-06-2008, 05:22 AM
I think you will find that it was the tories who went all out to encourage owner/occupiers. It was after all the tories who introduced MIRAS and it was Labour who withdrew MIRAS.

No-one is forcing anyone to buy an house, no-one is forcing anyone to sell their house, no-one has a right to be able to afford to buy an house. It's all simple economics and to try and blame the current Government for a slowdown in house prices that all the experts say was inevitable at some point seems rather odd.

It is thanks to the current Government's introduction of tax credits and lower rates of income tax that so many people have been able to buy houses on relatively low incomes. Around where I live there are tons of single parents and people in low paid un-skilled work who have been able to buy their own home, under the tories these people would still be renting and probably at the mercy of dodgy private landlords.

For anyone unhappy about the value of their house going down, remember that it is only a loss if you realise that loss by selling.

Rather than go through all Yorkies post, I will just say I agree. When I got married I was not on a very good wage at all. I certainly could not have entertained buying a flat in Edinburgh even at the prices then. Mortgagaes were certainly not easy to get. The exact opposite in fact. You had to prove to teh buiding society that you were capapble of saving. I had to have an account for over a year before they would give us one. We had gone to the council and asked for housing only to be asked if the girlfriend at the time was pregnant as that is the only way we would be housed. That and purely that was the reason we ended up on the property ladder. We were both the first in our families to have their own house. All have it now thanks to the right to buy but that is another story. I have great sympathy with anyone who is getting put in the same situation nowadays. Maybe it is time we went the Japanese route of 99 year mortgages? All I would suggest is peopl start saving when they first get a job so as they have a decent deposit to put down..

Crossgates Hibs
18-06-2008, 05:54 PM
I think you will find that it was the tories who went all out to encourage owner/occupiers. It was after all the tories who introduced MIRAS and it was Labour who withdrew MIRAS.

No-one is forcing anyone to buy an house, no-one is forcing anyone to sell their house, no-one has a right to be able to afford to buy an house. It's all simple economics and to try and blame the current Government for a slowdown in house prices that all the experts say was inevitable at some point seems rather odd.

It is thanks to the current Government's introduction of tax credits and lower rates of income tax that so many people have been able to buy houses on relatively low incomes. Around where I live there are tons of single parents and people in low paid un-skilled work who have been able to buy their own home, under the tories these people would still be renting and probably at the mercy of dodgy private landlords.

For anyone unhappy about the value of their house going down, remember that it is only a loss if you realise that loss by selling.


I have no problem with home ownership a good thing in my opinion. My anger is when Labour took over it was no more boom or bust well hello here comes the bust. If you for one minute think 120k in 10 years is acceptable for houses to rise and is sustainable then i give up with this thread. This goverment have wasted our money hand over fist and are still trying to ramp up property when the party is clearly over for them. Recession is coming houses will crash cause Labour did nothing to stop this madness and encouraged debt and home ownership at unaffordable levels.
As for thanks to this goverment allowing low earners to own their own house, they will probably be the first being repossesed as interest rates rise with everything else. The suggestion of 99 year mortgages is also laughable what pass the crap on to your kids. Come on lets get real all that needs to happen is house prices in relation to earnings and an end to stupid lending. We need a crash and then someone with a bit common sense to run the economy and regulate the banks better. Not Brown who rewards failure and greed and caused all this mess.
On the plus side at least prudence is now being rewarded for savers getting better returns on savings. Shame it was ignored for ten years while we had a debt party and now will face another ten putting it right.:brickwall

Sauzee07
19-06-2008, 12:28 PM
It is thanks to the current Government's introduction of tax credits and lower rates of income tax that so many people have been able to buy houses on relatively low incomes. Around where I live there are tons of single parents and people in low paid un-skilled work who have been able to buy their own home, under the tories these people would still be renting and probably at the mercy of dodgy private landlords.


Even the spin doctors of Westminster would be hard pushed to try that argument!

The ease and relative low cost of borrowing is what helped many on to the housing ladder. The banks were willing to lend to anyone who had a pulse and give them 125% of loan to value. An extra 20 a week in tax credits might help with the rent but it is not going to build a meaningful deposit anytime soon.

Also, don't forget this is the government who chose to scrap the 10p tax band despite the fact that this penalised almost every low earner in the UK. New Labour = Old Tories.:blah:

Crossgates Hibs
19-06-2008, 08:11 PM
Even the spin doctors of Westminster would be hard pushed to try that argument!

The ease and relative low cost of borrowing is what helped many on to the housing ladder. The banks were willing to lend to anyone who had a pulse and give them 125% of loan to value. An extra 20 a week in tax credits might help with the rent but it is not going to build a meaningful deposit anytime soon.

Also, don't forget this is the government who chose to scrap the 10p tax band despite the fact that this penalised almost every low earner in the UK. New Labour = Old Tories.:blah:

Well said that man. There is a blinkered hatred towards the tories and maybe rightly so. But too many people will vote Labour blindly as they think they are the party of the working class or whatever. Truth is there is not much difference between Labour and Tories these days. I do find it hard to believe that anyone else could have been as incompetant or arrogant as Labour have been whilst in power. When people have protested on mass war or petrol or whatever they have been ignored and hopefully this time they will pay for that and have total humiliation at the polls.:blah:

GreenandGlaikit
19-06-2008, 08:58 PM
Well said that man. There is a blinkered hatred towards the tories and maybe rightly so. But too many people will vote Labour blindly as they think they are the party of the working class or whatever. Truth is there is not much difference between Labour and Tories these days. I do find it hard to believe that anyone else could have been as incompetant or arrogant as Labour have been whilst in power. When people have protested on mass war or petrol or whatever they have been ignored and hopefully this time they will pay for that and have total humiliation at the polls.:blah:

Utterly justified hatred. They've always been contemptable gits and their current toff Tory Boy leadership simply gie me the dry boak. :ill:

Crossgates Hibs
19-06-2008, 10:44 PM
Utterly justified hatred. They've always been contemptable gits and their current toff Tory Boy leadership simply gie me the dry boak. :ill:

To be fair anyone in politics gies us the dry boak. Biggest bunch of free loaders going. Must have to be a slimy git to be one as thats all they are.:grr:

lyonhibs
20-06-2008, 07:40 AM
What does the phrase "liar loan" actually mean??. Is this some piece of financial industry terminology that I'm just not getting, or something of Yorkie Hibbie's own creation?? :dunno:

Lucius Apuleius
20-06-2008, 09:05 AM
What does the phrase "liar loan" actually mean??. Is this some piece of financial industry terminology that I'm just not getting, or something of Yorkie Hibbie's own creation?? :dunno:

:agree: Anytime I have gone for a mortgage, the building society has always contacted my company independantly for proof of earnings. Don't see how you can tell them a lie unless you ask your company to do so.

Sergio sledge
20-06-2008, 09:31 AM
What does the phrase "liar loan" actually mean??. Is this some piece of financial industry terminology that I'm just not getting, or something of Yorkie Hibbie's own creation?? :dunno:

A "Liar Loan" is also called a "stated income loan," where the mortgage broker tells the mortgage lender that the person wanting to take out the mortgage earns a certain amount when in reality they earn a lot less. If this goes unverified by the mortgage lender then it is a "Liar Loan." These loans are what caused the major housing crash in the USA, as people were saying they could afford repayments on a house when they couldn't, and so houses were getting re-possessed at a ridiculous rate.

As far as I'm aware these don't exist as such in Britain, but I could be wrong. When myself and my wife went to get a mortgage, we had to provide 3 months payslips each, and also proof of permanent or contracted employment.

Edit: After doing a quick search on Google, it appears that although not as widespread as in the USA, these loans (called self certified loans) do exist in the UK. Seems totally daft that lenders would actually consider giving out these loans, but the problem appears to have been partly caused by mortgage brokers getting paid a lot of commission for selling mortgages, and so have started to sell them to whoever they can, no matter if they can afford it or not.

Crossgates Hibs
20-06-2008, 05:37 PM
A "Liar Loan" is also called a "stated income loan," where the mortgage broker tells the mortgage lender that the person wanting to take out the mortgage earns a certain amount when in reality they earn a lot less. If this goes unverified by the mortgage lender then it is a "Liar Loan." These loans are what caused the major housing crash in the USA, as people were saying they could afford repayments on a house when they couldn't, and so houses were getting re-possessed at a ridiculous rate.

As far as I'm aware these don't exist as such in Britain, but I could be wrong. When myself and my wife went to get a mortgage, we had to provide 3 months payslips each, and also proof of permanent or contracted employment.

Edit: After doing a quick search on Google, it appears that although not as widespread as in the USA, these loans (called self certified loans) do exist in the UK. Seems totally daft that lenders would actually consider giving out these loans, but the problem appears to have been partly caused by mortgage brokers getting paid a lot of commission for selling mortgages, and so have started to sell them to whoever they can, no matter if they can afford it or not.




Self cert loans are the tip of the ice berg. Mortgage brokers have been guilty of forging payslips and 400 or so people have been arrested recently with mortgage fraud. Northern Rock with their 125% morgages and 5 x income loans have made things unsustainable along with other lenders. The market should have been finished in 2005 but with elections looming there was an interest rate slash coincidence or what?
Listen to Gordon Brown and he is still trying to get first time buyers to commit financial suicide by taking a half goverment owned shoebox for 200k and pay the rest back after 10 years madness or what? First time buyers should stay clear until prices drop by 50% or 3 and half times earnings, 2 and half couple. Why this tried and trusted workable way of lending was abandoned stinks of greed and corruption and could have been easily avoided.
Our so good chancellor built up false wealth made people feel rich when all that was done was price a generation from owning a roof over there head. Parents feeling rich mew to give their children the chance to get on the ladder all got to be paid back. Fools buying flats to rent out and make fortunes by doing nothing are being burned now no sympathy there a fool and their money are easily parted. We are now just a nation in a mess with out of control debt. Redundances all over the place in the next six months all thanks to the greed of the goverments and the banks. Makes me sick feel so much rage over all this.:brickwall

mew= mortgage equity withdrawl
All these shiny new BMWs paid for as the house has risen 50k in 6 months when really it is all false wealth and has to be paid back when your property loses that huge rise and more. Cheers Gordon Mr Prudence

Crossgates Hibs
20-06-2008, 05:49 PM
Self cert loans are the tip of the ice berg. Mortgage brokers have been guilty of forging payslips and 400 or so people have been arrested recently with mortgage fraud. Northern Rock with their 125% morgages and 5 x income loans have made things unsustainable along with other lenders. The market should have been finished in 2005 but with elections looming there was an interest rate slash coincidence or what?
Listen to Gordon Brown and he is still trying to get first time buyers to commit financial suicide by taking a half goverment owned shoebox for 200k and pay the rest back after 10 years madness or what? First time buyers should stay clear until prices drop by 50% or 3 and half times earnings, 2 and half couple. Why this tried and trusted workable way of lending was abandoned stinks of greed and corruption and could have been easily avoided.
Our so good chancellor built up false wealth made people feel rich when all that was done was price a generation from owning a roof over there head. Parents feeling rich mew to give their children the chance to get on the ladder all got to be paid back. Fools buying flats to rent out and make fortunes by doing nothing are being burned now no sympathy there a fool and their money are easily parted. We are now just a nation in a mess with out of control debt. Redundances all over the place in the next six months all thanks to the greed of the goverments and the banks. Makes me sick feel so much rage over all this.:brickwall

mew= mortgage equity withdrawl
All these shiny new BMWs paid for as the house has risen 50k in 6 months when really it is all false wealth and has to be paid back when your property loses that huge rise and more. Cheers Gordon Mr Prudence


It was 406 arrests in USA but it will hopefully happen here as well as our sisuation will be worse than USA more debt and higher prices. DONT BELIEVE THIS GOVERMENT WHEN THEY BLAME THE USA. We have plenty of sub prime and this will become more and more evident in the coming months.

MontrealHibs
20-06-2008, 06:01 PM
Im 37 and remember my Mum and Dad struggling to pay their mortgage under Thatcher HOWEVER it is different this time. There was little liar loans that exist nowadays. It was not so pressured to be a house owner in those days as is now with your generation who think its win win with property as those days are gone for a while. Yes there were 15% interest rates but lending was far more sensible no loans 8 times the value of a house. At the way things are going we may see interest rates to double figures anyway. The housing market is vastly overpriced and will drop in price but not get cheaper as interest rates will take care of that but will ruin the lives of many.
This goverment has ramped property and the whole econmy was based on house prices till now hence the reason its going wrong now. There is no solution and anyone that buys a goverment shared property needs their head looking at. Why is it out of reach for most to have shelter over them we are like a third world country at present? Who can afford housing at todays prices with a 3 times salary loan? It wasnt like that in your day or my parents day. You need to be earning about 50k to buy a basic flat in Edinburgh how many earn that sort of dosh?
We are looking at a big crash and sadly it has got to this but it needs to happen as high house prices do not benfit anyone who just want a roof over their heads. As for buy to lets enjoy your second property im sure it has been a great investment if bought in last few years not.
Sorry to rant on but personel debt is so much higher these days and encouraging property just now is ok for the people in their 50s where it has been a great investment now it is just a milestone round the neck that leaves you skint. When prices come down 30 to 40 % i may look at buying but for now i will rent and save so that one day it may be viable for me to enter the market. As for New Labour they will be hated more than the Tories ever were by my generation when people wake up and see the mess they have been encouraged by this goverment to get into to keep the housing bubble inflated.:brickwall

RENT AND SAVE? Your having a laugh - when all these people get kicked out of there houses for not being able to pay the mortgage, as you predict, rent will go up, and up, in line with increased demand.

And as you so rightly point out - who will want to become a buy to let landlord now - so supply will fall - further compounding the rental price issue and pushing up inflation. It's got the potential to become one maniac journey!

I am only pleased to be nearing paying my mortgage off - for all the house is worth though I'll probably be able to trade it in for a Skoda. :boo hoo:

Houchy
21-06-2008, 08:41 AM
Scotland does tend to lag behind the rest of the UK as a whole though.

It's all down to supply and demand at the end of the day, if FTBs can't get the 5x salary, 100% mortgages any more nobody's going to buy flats at that price => prices come down => second time buyers can't afford to pay as much => prices come down, etc etc.

The first link I posted is the more pertinent one, FTBs can't go on buying flats at 5x their salary (especially with lenders being a bit more 'responsible' these days), so prices at best have to level off, at worst they will fall considerably.

The housing market is unsustainable as it is, something has to give.


FTB's? What does Wallace Mercer have to do with this. He's deed (pun intended):greengrin

H185MAN
21-06-2008, 09:16 PM
Christ - I sold ma flat in McDonald Road for 52,000 in 1995 when I moved to the Isle o' Man - **** knows whit it would be worth now... :grr:

Betty Boop
21-06-2008, 09:22 PM
Christ - I sold ma flat in McDonald Road for 52,000 in 1995 when I moved to the Isle o' Man - **** knows whit it would be worth now... :grr:200,000? :greengrin

H185MAN
21-06-2008, 09:26 PM
200,000? :greengrin

Jeezy peeps...!!! :boo hoo:

IWasThere2016
21-06-2008, 09:50 PM
A market like housing needs new money eg FTBs.

When the FTBs couldn't buy what they wanted, because prices were too high, there had to be a price correction.

Added to this is the current credit squeeze, so no one area will IMHO be immune to prices falling.

If you own this shouldnt be a concern - unless you paid OTT or borrowed 100% - even so, property is long term investment* .. hence why the vast majority of people finance their mortages over 25 years.

* Unless your RP and can use other people's money to re-pay toot sweet :devil:

H185MAN
21-06-2008, 10:05 PM
A market like housing needs new money eg FTBs.

When the FTBs couldn't buy what they wanted, because prices were too high, there had to be a price correction.

Added to this is the current credit squeeze, so no one area will IMHO be immune to prices falling.

If you own this shouldnt be a concern - unless you paid OTT or borrowed 100% - even so, property is long term investment* .. hence why the vast majority of people finance their mortages over 25 years.

* Unless your RP and can use other people's money to re-pay toot sweet :devil:

:blah::thumbsup::agree:

Crossgates Hibs
24-06-2008, 07:10 PM
A market like housing needs new money eg FTBs.

When the FTBs couldn't buy what they wanted, because prices were too high, there had to be a price correction.

Added to this is the current credit squeeze, so no one area will IMHO be immune to prices falling.

If you own this shouldnt be a concern - unless you paid OTT or borrowed 100% - even so, property is long term investment* .. hence why the vast majority of people finance their mortages over 25 years.

* Unless your RP and can use other people's money to re-pay toot sweet :devil:



Thats just the trouble there is so many who have bought interest only and at the limit of affordability. No plan B if interest rates rise as house prices only ever go up (yeah right) this time is going to be very bad. As for the stupid buy to lets normal people buying loads of houses expecting to get rich quick WTF they will lose everything and more. That lot i have no sympathy for as they are partly to blame for this mess by pricing young people out of property and expecting to be worth millions in their old age. If it was that easy everyone would have done it. No i feel sorry for the young family who have been pushed to buy by family friends etc only to find they have no standard of life and are just mortgage slaves. Its criminal the goverment bailing out banks some of these crooks should be looking at jail sentances. How this whole thing has been allowed to happen is beyond me.:grr:

Splat
26-06-2008, 02:34 PM
This is purely the market correcting itself. Things have got out of hand, especially in London. There's no need for the doomsday scenarios. Edinburgh and Scotland in general will feel a slight pinch but I would expect things to start to bounce back by the end of next year. Employment is still high which is always a good sign. I'd expect fuel prices to drop by the middle of next year. If Obama gets elected in the states then Id expect an optimistic surge in the u.s economy as well.
The economy is strong so i wouldn't worry too much. It would help things if the morons in downing street would stop spending money that we don't have though.

Crossgates Hibs
26-06-2008, 07:13 PM
This is purely the market correcting itself. Things have got out of hand, especially in London. There's no need for the doomsday scenarios. Edinburgh and Scotland in general will feel a slight pinch but I would expect things to start to bounce back by the end of next year. Employment is still high which is always a good sign. I'd expect fuel prices to drop by the middle of next year. If Obama gets elected in the states then Id expect an optimistic surge in the u.s economy as well.
The economy is strong so i wouldn't worry too much. It would help things if the morons in downing street would stop spending money that we don't have though.


It will be more than a pinch as for a bounceback i dont think so do you read the papers or watch the news. Lets see if employment is still high in a years time remember we are just at the start of a recession. As for the econmy being strong dont make me laugh we are the sick man of Europe. Dont believe polititions our econmy is down the pan.
:blah:

PC Stamp
29-06-2008, 11:03 PM
Whilst it's a serious subject ... if you didn't laugh you'd cry.

Found this from the last housing price drop. Brought a wee smile to my face. And the band are still going strong some twenty five plus years later!

Madness on Spitting Image (http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=2t8YTvdYXws&feature=related)

fergal7
29-06-2008, 11:58 PM
It will be more than a pinch as for a bounceback i dont think so do you read the papers or watch the news. Lets see if employment is still high in a years time remember we are just at the start of a recession. As for the econmy being strong dont make me laugh we are the sick man of Europe. Dont believe polititions our econmy is down the pan.
:blah:

Yorkie Hibee Dont know you but I get the impression you are a wee bit bitter cos you cannot afford a mortgage (student?)

Its been worse than this and our econmy (sp!) has bounced back, as it will again

Thats why its called an economy, peaks and troughs and all that.

I think you are way to young to remember the 70's, now that was a recession.

RyeSloan
30-06-2008, 12:22 AM
It will be more than a pinch as for a bounceback i dont think so do you read the papers or watch the news. Lets see if employment is still high in a years time remember we are just at the start of a recession. As for the econmy being strong dont make me laugh we are the sick man of Europe. Dont believe polititions our econmy is down the pan.
:blah:

You state so much inaacuracy as fact.

Do you even know what quantifies a recession?

You say unemployment is high? High compared to what? It's half the rate it was in 1992 and most of Europe has a substantially higher rate.

There is plenty to discuss regarding the state of the economy and government spending but I think you have been reading the wrong papers and watching the wrong news to come out with such a sweepingly inaccurate post.

Most areas of the economy are under pressure....just look at the state of the Banks balance sheets (don't even go near the house builders!! Ouch.) and the government (most notably Brown) forgot his prudence years ago but that doesn't automatically mean recession, massive unemployment and being the sick man of Europe (god forbid! Have you seen some of the problems the Italians and the French have?)

Crossgates Hibs
30-06-2008, 09:44 PM
Yorkie Hibee Dont know you but I get the impression you are a wee bit bitter cos you cannot afford a mortgage (student?)

Its been worse than this and our econmy (sp!) has bounced back, as it will again

Thats why its called an economy, peaks and troughs and all that.

I think you are way to young to remember the 70's, now that was a recession.



First of all i am not a student. I am 37 years old and could quite easily afford a mortgage but due my job it is not viable just yet. I will buy in the future when the time and price is right. The only thing i am bitter about is watching people being encouraged to gorge on debt to keep a bubble inflated at any price. Yes i was a just a kid in the 70s and recession then i imagine will be similar to recession coming in our way over the next few years, although people have much more debt this time round and this country has next to nothing to manufacture as we are a nation whose economy relies on house prices. We as a nation produce next to nothing these days and we will suffer for it.:brickwall

Crossgates Hibs
30-06-2008, 10:00 PM
You state so much inaacuracy as fact.

Do you even know what quantifies a recession?

You say unemployment is high? High compared to what? It's half the rate it was in 1992 and most of Europe has a substantially higher rate.

There is plenty to discuss regarding the state of the economy and government spending but I think you have been reading the wrong papers and watching the wrong news to come out with such a sweepingly inaccurate post.

Most areas of the economy are under pressure....just look at the state of the Banks balance sheets (don't even go near the house builders!! Ouch.) and the government (most notably Brown) forgot his prudence years ago but that doesn't automatically mean recession, massive unemployment and being the sick man of Europe (god forbid! Have you seen some of the problems the Italians and the French have?)



Where did i say unemployment is high? It will be in the next few years as it is going up just now and will only get worse as we stumble into recession. If reading papers like the Times,Independant and Guardian is the wrong papers then maybe i am. What do you suggest i read? Here is an area of fact Britain has the most personal debt in the world. This is what has upset me more than anything predatory lending to vulnerable people with no chance to pay it back so some **** bag in a suit gets their commision. It has been madness in UK for years now and debt has been encouraged to keep our joke of an econmy going.
The French and Italians may have their problems but you dont see them buying dozens of houses on the never never expecting to get rich quick. You didnt see people moan as their house rose 25% in 2 years but you see them moan when petrol rises 25% in 2 years why is this? We are a nation consumed by greed and have lost sight of reality hence the reason we will have the mother of all recessions over the next few years. Yes their is much to discuss over the economy but we dont have one anymore as Brown pi**ed it all away when he was chancellor:brickwall:grr:

RyeSloan
30-06-2008, 10:30 PM
" Lets see if employment is still high "

For unemployment to stay high it has to be high already no?

I agree that the housing bubble was unsustainable but I don't agree that a long over due correction is such a bad thing.

Yes the banks lended recklessly but they have sure paid the price for that but people should be responsible for their own actions. It's far to simple to blame the governement for all the woes then you state that Britain somehow doesn't have an economy any more, that is just ludicrous.

Times are tough and the government did nothing to prepare for them and were in fact complicit in causing some of the pain that is now being felt but your sweeping statements regarding the mother of all recessions, a nation consumed by greed, the government being 'criminal' in preventing a collapse of the banking system, mortage slaves, s##m bags in suits etc sound more like an over zealous rant than a proper appraisal of a complex global situation.

Crossgates Hibs
01-07-2008, 10:27 PM
" Lets see if employment is still high "

For unemployment to stay high it has to be high already no?

I agree that the housing bubble was unsustainable but I don't agree that a long over due correction is such a bad thing.

Yes the banks lended recklessly but they have sure paid the price for that but people should be responsible for their own actions. It's far to simple to blame the governement for all the woes then you state that Britain somehow doesn't have an economy any more, that is just ludicrous.

Times are tough and the government did nothing to prepare for them and were in fact complicit in causing some of the pain that is now being felt but your sweeping statements regarding the mother of all recessions, a nation consumed by greed, the government being 'criminal' in preventing a collapse of the banking system, mortage slaves, s##m bags in suits etc sound more like an over zealous rant than a proper appraisal of a complex global situation.


I used the word employment not unemployment asking if employment will be as high in a year or two which imo it wont be. I disagree that times are tough as they are just starting to get tough for most. I do believe we are heading for a very nasty recession that could have been lessened by goverments and banks behaving in a moral and less greedy mannor. Yes its a global situation as well but we are the worst prepared country for this due to our high personal debt.
We are a nation hooked on credit not everyone but a huge amount of people think nothing of debt and we live in a must have culture. The only reason house prices are falling is easy credit has been removed. If this easy credit was never there house prices would be stable but people got greedy and wanted houses abroad and buy to lets for their pensions because houses only ever go up? Its these people who are wondering how the goverment will help them yeah right get a life and try working.
High house prices are bad for the economy and should be related to earnings to determine how much you can borrow. Its a buyers market now and if i was buying some second dwelling from a buy to let i would be offering half the asking price.
As for our economy our biggest industry these days is the financial side which is in deep trouble. We have next to no industry and offer the rest of the world next to nothing. We import more than we export so how is our economy not down the drain. :grr:
Sorry if i rant but i feel strongly about all this. I have friends who are massively in debt as most people have and all they did was try to have what other people on similar incomes were having even if it was paid by debt. YET nothing was being done to stop this by the goverment or FSA even though they knew what was going on.

RyeSloan
01-07-2008, 10:57 PM
I used the word employment not unemployment

Ha ha you did indeed...I read that as unemployment every time, even when I quoted it. Doh.

I take your points, don't think we are ever gonna quite agree on this and even more so when you start wishing for Britian to have 'industry' to offer the world but at least yer last post was a bit more reasoned :wink: :greengrin

JoeT
02-07-2008, 09:43 AM
Its a buyers market now and if i was buying some second dwelling from a buy to let i would be offering half the asking price.


That's great but there is no chance you'd have an offer accepted........

Betty Boop
02-07-2008, 05:06 PM
Dunno about the Housing Market, but the Economy is definitely on the slide. The price of food and Utilities has shot up, and petrol don't get me started! Marks and Spencers posted a profit warning today, and analysts are forecasting a recession. happy days. :bitchy:

Crossgates Hibs
02-07-2008, 06:01 PM
That's great but there is no chance you'd have an offer accepted........


Maybe not now but who knows in the future as distressed sellers have to get rid. maybe a nice repossesion from the bank.
:greengrin