Another betting thread?

[Bangkok Hibby]

I just wonder if there is any appetite for a new thread where people can post thoughts, reasons to bet, reasons to keep money in pocket, advice, lessons learned, notice I haven't used the word tips but if you're having a bet it would be helpful to know what your thoughts are etc. This would probably only be of interest to the more serious bettors amongst us so maybe not enough people to make it a goer.

I suppose this could be classed as after timing in reverse but I've spotted lots of reasons why people shouldn't have backed certain outcomes recently. Sunderland v Burton being a good example. Could this type of thing be pointed out or will it just spoil people's fun

[EskbankHibby]

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I just wonder if there is any appetite for a new thread where people can post thoughts, reasons to bet, reasons to keep money in pocket, advice, lessons learned, notice I haven't used the word tips but if you're having a bet it would be helpful to know what your thoughts are etc. This would probably only be of interest to the more serious bettors amongst us so maybe not enough people to make it a goer.

I suppose this could be classed as after timing in reverse but I've spotted lots of reasons why people shouldn't have backed certain outcomes recently. Sunderland v Burton being a good example. Could this type of thing be pointed out or will it just spoil people's fun

An excellent idea, let’s do it.

[EskbankHibby]

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I just wonder if there is any appetite for a new thread where people can post thoughts, reasons to bet, reasons to keep money in pocket, advice, lessons learned, notice I haven't used the word tips but if you're having a bet it would be helpful to know what your thoughts are etc. This would probably only be of interest to the more serious bettors amongst us so maybe not enough people to make it a goer.

I suppose this could be classed as after timing in reverse but I've spotted lots of reasons why people shouldn't have backed certain outcomes recently. Sunderland v Burton being a good example. Could this type of thing be pointed out or will it just spoil people's fun

With this in mind I would say that I steer clear of multi team accumulators nowadays, that's my biggest lesson learned over the last year or so.

Singles and doubles only, I stick to this fairly rigidly now. Broke that rule last week with a treble and let down by the shortest odds team, irritating but reinforced the need for discipline.

[Frazerbob]

Why not just post said thoughts in the current thread?

[Bangkok Hibby]

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Why not just post said thoughts in the current thread?

Yes I thought about that but with the comments about after timing I thought there may be enough serious gamblers to warrant another thread. I would probably have far more negative advice than positive and that might not go down too well with fun gamblers

[Bangkok Hibby]

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With this in mind I would say that I steer clear of multi team accumulators nowadays, that's my biggest lesson learned over the last year or so.

Singles and doubles only, I stick to this fairly rigidly now. Broke that rule last week with a treble and let down by the shortest odds team, irritating but reinforced the need for discipline.

I've learned many painful and costly lessons over the years but I now make a small second income through betting singles only. My list of "don't do's" is extensive and certainly curtails my betting opportunities. This isn't something the fun gambler wants to hear though so I wasn't sure if a new thread would work.

My thoughts for today are here (copied from the other thread)...


Tomorrow Leicester will be favourites against Newcastle. They may well win but their run of 4 wins has been against teams currently 13th, 14th, 19th and 20th. I advise caution. No bet for me.

As I said they may well win. Newcastle aren't great away from home but they are still in a relegation fight. Leicester's aim this season is a decent finish and build over the summer for next season, so a European place would be a bonus, not a "must do"
So there are enough doubts for me to keep my money in my pocket on this occasion. This type of thinking has served me well.

[Since452]

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With this in mind I would say that I steer clear of multi team accumulators nowadays, that's my biggest lesson learned over the last year or so.

Singles and doubles only, I stick to this fairly rigidly now. Broke that rule last week with a treble and let down by the shortest odds team, irritating but reinforced the need for discipline.

Might try that tactic as my multi team acca's are abysmal.

[stoneyburn hibs]

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I just wonder if there is any appetite for a new thread where people can post thoughts, reasons to bet, reasons to keep money in pocket, advice, lessons learned, notice I haven't used the word tips but if you're having a bet it would be helpful to know what your thoughts are etc. This would probably only be of interest to the more serious bettors amongst us so maybe not enough people to make it a goer.

I suppose this could be classed as after timing in reverse but I've spotted lots of reasons why people shouldn't have backed certain outcomes recently. Sunderland v Burton being a good example. Could this type of thing be pointed out or will it just spoil people's fun

Go for it, as it would be appreciated by many.

[Smartie]

Is there any need for any of this to be on another thread?

I'm sure the "fun" bettors would appreciate warnings as much as more serious gamblers.

Sunderland have been getting far too many draws all season and they have cost me on several occasions. Having lost faith in them betting-wise, they did seem to have picked up a better bit of league form and with so much for them to play for their odds weren't too bad for the risk they represented.

[Bangkok Hibby]

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Is there any need for any of this to be on another thread?

I'm sure the "fun" bettors would appreciate warnings as much as more serious gamblers.

Sunderland have been getting far too many draws all season and they have cost me on several occasions. Having lost faith in them betting-wise, they did seem to have picked up a better bit of league form and with so much for them to play for their odds weren't too bad for the risk they represented.

Yes I might take this back to the other thread, I'll see. The thing about Sunderland was they were playing a team who were scoring lots of goals and had beaten Barnsley who were in third place.
If I just come along and say you shouldn't have done that bet it might pi55 people off.
Ach I don't know. Lets see what the weekend brings 😀

[Hibernia&Alba]

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With this in mind I would say that I steer clear of multi team accumulators nowadays, that's my biggest lesson learned over the last year or so.

Singles and doubles only, I stick to this fairly rigidly now. Broke that rule last week with a treble and let down by the shortest odds team, irritating but reinforced the need for discipline.

I suppose it depends how much your stake is, mate. If it's a fiver on a multiple accumulator, which is my usual stake, then it's a good bit of fun which makes it exciting and not the end of the world if it fails. I never bet more than a tenner on anything beyond a single. It's all relative; I play for buttons usually, but I would advise folk not to go large on accumulators.

[Pretty Boy]

I think a lot comes down to how you view your gambling. If you are serious about trying to make an additional income out of it then that takes time, discipline and an ability to detach yourself from any emotion relating to the bet. On the other hand if you are betting a fiver a week on a multiple team acca with a very small chance of winning a fortune for a bit of fun then it's likely you aren't a 'serious gambler' anyway and overthinking it isn't going to increase your chances to any great extent.

Whilst I don't treat gambling as a way to make money, I also know I can be quite compulsive so I think very carefully about my bets. I only bet on horses and I can go days and weeks without a bet if nothing takes my fancy; I'll also happily watch races with no money at stake just to watch certain horses with a longer term view.

I keep track of every penny I stake, win and lose as it's a good way to keep a bit discipline and lose the 'it's only another tenner' mentality.

[Hibernia&Alba]

Knowing to quit when you're ahead is a great bit of advice. It isn't always possible, but if you get a good win, bank it when possible and don't put it all back on.

On the other side of the coin, chasing losses can be costly. Sometimes it's best to take it on the chin and try another day.

[EskbankHibby]

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Knowing to quit when you're ahead is a great bit of advice. It isn't always possible, but if you get a good win, bank it when possible and don't put it all back on.

On the other side of the coin, chasing losses can be costly. Sometimes it's best to take it on the chin and try another day.

Totally agree mate.

If you find yourself betting on a Venezuelan basketball game on a Sunday night the chances are you're on a bad chase!

[Bangkok Hibby]

Everton can theoretically still qualify for Europe. Tomorrow against a broken Fulham they should win easily. Scott Parker will do well next year with Fulham in the Championship I believe but it's now all about minimising the humiliation and trying to keep players motivated.
Conclusion...Everton still have a lot to play for and at a shade of odds on warrant an investment.

If anyone is interested I have only two levels of betting depending on the size of my current bank

1-£50 single
2-£100 single

I'm tempted to go level 2 but the fact they are playing away from home tempers things just a bit. Level 1 bet.

[Scorrie]

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Knowing to quit when you're ahead is a great bit of advice. It isn't always possible, but if you get a good win, bank it when possible and don't put it all back on.

On the other side of the coin, chasing losses can be costly. Sometimes it's best to take it on the chin and try another day.

Yep 100% agree. And remember no profit is too small

[Bangkok Hibby]

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Yep 100% agree. And remember no profit is too small

Great quote! This is how the fun gamblers lose so many times, looking for big wins from small stakes.

If I've invested £50 on a single at 1/2 its £25 added to the bank. This will come in vastly more times than a fiver or a tenner on a five or six selection roll up.

[pacoluna]

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Great quote! This is how the fun gamblers lose so many times, looking for big wins from small stakes.


If I've invested £50 on a single at 1/2 its £25 added to the bank. This will come in vastly more times than a fiver or a tenner on a five or six selection roll up.

Hearts are 1/2 tomorrow, wouldn't touch them with a £1.

If you want to make long term profit, don't be lured in by the odds regardless of how short or big.

[Hibernia&Alba]

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Great quote! This is how the fun gamblers lose so many times, looking for big wins from small stakes.

If I've invested £50 on a single at 1/2 its £25 added to the bank. This will come in vastly more times than a fiver or a tenner on a five or six selection roll up.

Accumulators for small stakes only, unless you can afford the losses. Don't be putting your monthly salary on an eight fold.

[deano6-2]

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I just wonder if there is any appetite for a new thread where people can post thoughts, reasons to bet, reasons to keep money in pocket, advice, lessons learned, notice I haven't used the word tips but if you're having a bet it would be helpful to know what your thoughts are etc. This would probably only be of interest to the more serious bettors amongst us so maybe not enough people to make it a goer.

I suppose this could be classed as after timing in reverse but I've spotted lots of reasons why people shouldn't have backed certain outcomes recently. Sunderland v Burton being a good example. Could this type of thing be pointed out or will it just spoil people's fun

Wish i'd seen this on tuesday as they done my 6 fold for nearly a grand!

[Killiehibbie]

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Great quote! This is how the fun gamblers lose so many times, looking for big wins from small stakes.

If I've invested £50 on a single at 1/2 its £25 added to the bank. This will come in vastly more times than a fiver or a tenner on a five or six selection roll up.

Hard to show a profit at the end of the season backing at those prices. Keep a diary and you're better than most if you can get upwards of 70% winners. It's reckoned if you can consistently beat Pinnacles closing price you've got an edge.

[Hibeesmad]

These days I usually don't go any further than a treble if I'm looking at a potential acca. Most of my bets are now on a vary of markets from shots on targets to bookings, i do this as I know I'm going to be watching the game and it adds a bit more excitement. The main issue is ensuring that you don't gamble on every game that you watch that I had a habit of doing as you are most likely to lose money in the long run that way.

I have also started to do a lot more research into the teams I bet on. For example, looking into previous results between the sides, injuries, suspensions, home and away records, etc. I also include this with gut feeling. At 2/7 the other night I saw absolutely no value in Norwich up against a team who battling relegation (these are the bets in the past which have let me down more than most) so I opted for Barcelona instead.

My stakes vary on what markets I bet on and how confident I feel of winning.

[Bangkok Hibby]

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Hard to show a profit at the end of the season backing at those prices. Keep a diary and you're better than most if you can get upwards of 70% winners. It's reckoned if you can consistently beat Pinnacles closing price you've got an edge.

I used 1/2 as an example but I hear you. Actually 7 of my last 10 bets have come in.

[Killiehibbie]

http://www.daily25.com/

Have a read of this blog to see how 'easy' it is to make money gambling.

[EskbankHibby]

What are the thoughts on a single on Southampton tomorrow?

Best priced 8/5 (Bet365), Wolves may be on a downer following their FA cup exit.

Southampton have done quite well since the new manager came in (12th in the league for results since he came in according to the BBC). Southampton at home and not yet safe with something to play for Wolves away from home and comfortably top 10.

Thoughts?

Not sure if i'm attracted as the odds are pretty good or a Southampton win is ACTUALLY likely to happen.

[Hibeesmad]

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What are the thoughts on a single on Southampton tomorrow?

Best priced 8/5 (Bet365), Wolves may be on a downer following their FA cup exit.

Southampton have done quite well since the new manager came in (12th in the league for results since he came in according to the BBC). Southampton at home and not yet safe with something to play for Wolves away from home and comfortably top 10.

Thoughts?

Not sure if i'm attracted as the odds are pretty good or a Southampton win is ACTUALLY likely to happen.

Really difficult one too call for me. Wolves don't have the best away record against teams at the bottom of the table, they lost away to Huddersfield, Cardiff and Burnley. They only managed a draw away to Fulham.

I would probably be more inclined to bet on a draw in this one.

[Bangkok Hibby]

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What are the thoughts on a single on Southampton tomorrow?

Best priced 8/5 (Bet365), Wolves may be on a downer following their FA cup exit.

Southampton have done quite well since the new manager came in (12th in the league for results since he came in according to the BBC). Southampton at home and not yet safe with something to play for Wolves away from home and comfortably top 10.

Thoughts?

Not sure if i'm attracted as the odds are pretty good or a Southampton win is ACTUALLY likely to happen.

Too close to call for me. My head says "draw" but I never back draws so for me it's no bet.

[superfurryhibby]

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I've learned many painful and costly lessons over the years but I now make a small second income through betting singles only. My list of "don't do's" is extensive and certainly curtails my betting opportunities. This isn't something the fun gambler wants to hear though so I wasn't sure if a new thread would work.

My thoughts for today are here (copied from the other thread)...


Tomorrow Leicester will be favourites against Newcastle. They may well win but their run of 4 wins has been against teams currently 13th, 14th, 19th and 20th. I advise caution. No bet for me.

As I said they may well win. Newcastle aren't great away from home but they are still in a relegation fight. Leicester's aim this season is a decent finish and build over the summer for next season, so a European place would be a bonus, not a "must do"
So there are enough doubts for me to keep my money in my pocket on this occasion. This type of thinking has served me well.

I don’t bet and don’t have any interest as such, but I’m curious why Leicester’s form would deter you? They’ve been winning against teams placed lower, some of whom are in the relegation zone. Doesn’t that say they are more likely to keep up that record, especially when at home?

[TheGreenMan]

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I've learned many painful and costly lessons over the years but I now make a small second income through betting singles only. My list of "don't do's" is extensive and certainly curtails my betting opportunities. This isn't something the fun gambler wants to hear though so I wasn't sure if a new thread would work.

My thoughts for today are here (copied from the other thread)...


Tomorrow Leicester will be favourites against Newcastle. They may well win but their run of 4 wins has been against teams currently 13th, 14th, 19th and 20th. I advise caution. No bet for me.

As I said they may well win. Newcastle aren't great away from home but they are still in a relegation fight. Leicester's aim this season is a decent finish and build over the summer for next season, so a European place would be a bonus, not a "must do"
So there are enough doubts for me to keep my money in my pocket on this occasion. This type of thinking has served me well.

How much statistical analysis do you do? Using any xG metrics or any of the newer more in depth stuff or any tried and trusted or anything else?

Seems a lot based on high level stuff or feel more than anything else? Maybe this works for you which is great, just thought anyone seriously trying to make money from betting would be using all available data to make decisions?

[Pretty Boy]

For anyone who pays attention to betting patterns.

The 5.10 at Kempton has a horse called Sussex Solo running. He has never been out the bottom 3 in his last 5 races and has shown very little. However he started the day at around 40/1 and is now 15/2 across the board and is about 8.6 on the exchanges (albeit there isn't a huge amount of money coming for it). Wearing cheekpieces for the 1st time and has dropped in weight but there would have to be a huge improvement for that to really matter. It's still an interesting drop in price if it holds to the off time.

Definitely not a tip but I'm keeping and eye on it just as out of curiosity.