Euro coefficient

[Ozyhibby]

I got this from Twitter, so thanks to @Moravcik67_

It does a good job of explaining what we need to do to improve our chances in Europe.


1. Some info on what would need to happen for Scottish teams to play less qualifiers in Europe, based on this season's access list.

The round a club starts in is based on the Scottish coefficient - which is itself based on 5 years worth of the results of Scottish clubs in Europe

2. The points a club contributes to the Scottish coefficient are

- During qualifying: Win = 1pt, draw = 0.5pts
- Group stage onward: Win = 2pts, draw = 1pt

Note that the points a club get for its own coefficient during qualifying is based on the round the clubs gets reaches

3. For example, if Hibs lose both legs to Asteras, they'll have contributed 2pts to the Scottish coefficient for their 2 wins in the 1st round, but will only get 1.5pts for their own coefficient because that's what you get for reaching R2 of the EL qualifiers.


4. Once all the points of all the clubs are added together in a season, the total is then divided by the number of clubs. This gives the national coefficient for the year.

The picture here shows the 17/18 Scottish coefficient



5. The 4.0 pt national coefficient comes from

- 7 qualifying wins (7pts)
- 2 qualifying draws (1pt)
- 2 post-qualifying wins (4pts)
- 4 bonus points (Celtic, for reaching the CL group stage)

That's 16pts in total. It's then divided by the number of clubs (4), to give 4pts total

6. In short, for the national coefficient, every match matters. For the club coefficient, during qualifying at least, the only thing that matters is progressing.

Scotland was ranked 23rd for this season. That meant, the starting rounds for each club are



7. So what impact would moving up the rankings have for Scottish clubs? Based on this years access list, here's what would happen if Scotland acheived the following positions on the list. Green for CL, blue for EL.


8. As you can see we need to jump up to 19th before there's any change. After that, nearly every increase in position brings about a benefit to at leaest one of our clubs.

By the time we reach 15th, we have 2 CL clubs again, 5 clubs in total, and all skipping the 1st round.

9. Sadly, we're going the wrong way just now. Next year we'll have dropped from 23rd to 26th. This is the country rankings used for the 18/19 season



10. As you can see, we're not that far (<1pt) behind 19th position, the 1st position that would have an impact on where Scottish clubs start.

But beyond that, it's a much steeper climb - to the point where we almost need to double our national coefficient to get to 11th.

11. The problem is that we need to take into account that 1pt in that table is not the same as 1 qualifying win. Remember that we need to divide points gained by clubs by the number of clubs? An increase of 1pt in the table is equal to 4 extra qualifying wins over 5 seasons.
12. To reach 15th, and all the advantages that go with it, we'd need an extra 6.5pts. That'd pretty much require every Scottish club to contribute an extra qualifying win and draw each year for 5 straight years.

It's that level of consistency we struggle with.

13. To reach 11th place, and get the automatic CL group palce, we'd have needed an extra 14.25pts on the Scottish coefficient over the last 5 years. That's not far off needing every Scottish team to provide 3 extra wins per season for 5 straight years. It's a huge task.

14. Sadly, we make it difficult for ourselves. We drop too many stupid points. That 19th position could have been achieved had

- Celtic beat Lincoln Red Imps
- Rangers beat Niederkorn
- Aberdeen beat Fola Esch
- Hearts beat Birkirkara

Not too much to ask for, is it?




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[scoopyboy]

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I got this from Twitter, so thanks to @Moravcik67_

It does a good job of explaining what we need to do to improve our chances in Europe.


1. Some info on what would need to happen for Scottish teams to play less qualifiers in Europe, based on this season's access list.

The round a club starts in is based on the Scottish coefficient - which is itself based on 5 years worth of the results of Scottish clubs in Europe

2. The points a club contributes to the Scottish coefficient are

- During qualifying: Win = 1pt, draw = 0.5pts
- Group stage onward: Win = 2pts, draw = 1pt

Note that the points a club get for its own coefficient during qualifying is based on the round the clubs gets reaches

3. For example, if Hibs lose both legs to Asteras, they'll have contributed 2pts to the Scottish coefficient for their 2 wins in the 1st round, but will only get 1.5pts for their own coefficient because that's what you get for reaching R2 of the EL qualifiers.


4. Once all the points of all the clubs are added together in a season, the total is then divided by the number of clubs. This gives the national coefficient for the year.

The picture here shows the 17/18 Scottish coefficient



5. The 4.0 pt national coefficient comes from

- 7 qualifying wins (7pts)
- 2 qualifying draws (1pt)
- 2 post-qualifying wins (4pts)
- 4 bonus points (Celtic, for reaching the CL group stage)

That's 16pts in total. It's then divided by the number of clubs (4), to give 4pts total

6. In short, for the national coefficient, every match matters. For the club coefficient, during qualifying at least, the only thing that matters is progressing.

Scotland was ranked 23rd for this season. That meant, the starting rounds for each club are



7. So what impact would moving up the rankings have for Scottish clubs? Based on this years access list, here's what would happen if Scotland acheived the following positions on the list. Green for CL, blue for EL.


8. As you can see we need to jump up to 19th before there's any change. After that, nearly every increase in position brings about a benefit to at leaest one of our clubs.

By the time we reach 15th, we have 2 CL clubs again, 5 clubs in total, and all skipping the 1st round.

9. Sadly, we're going the wrong way just now. Next year we'll have dropped from 23rd to 26th. This is the country rankings used for the 18/19 season



10. As you can see, we're not that far (<1pt) behind 19th position, the 1st position that would have an impact on where Scottish clubs start.

But beyond that, it's a much steeper climb - to the point where we almost need to double our national coefficient to get to 11th.

11. The problem is that we need to take into account that 1pt in that table is not the same as 1 qualifying win. Remember that we need to divide points gained by clubs by the number of clubs? An increase of 1pt in the table is equal to 4 extra qualifying wins over 5 seasons.
12. To reach 15th, and all the advantages that go with it, we'd need an extra 6.5pts. That'd pretty much require every Scottish club to contribute an extra qualifying win and draw each year for 5 straight years.

It's that level of consistency we struggle with.

13. To reach 11th place, and get the automatic CL group palce, we'd have needed an extra 14.25pts on the Scottish coefficient over the last 5 years. That's not far off needing every Scottish team to provide 3 extra wins per season for 5 straight years. It's a huge task.

14. Sadly, we make it difficult for ourselves. We drop too many stupid points. That 19th position could have been achieved had

- Celtic beat Lincoln Red Imps
- Rangers beat Niederkorn
- Aberdeen beat Fola Esch
- Hearts beat Birkirkara

Not too much to ask for, is it?




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Thanks for that Ozy, I will have my calculator out after each round.

I was going to go rummaging for that but you saved me the bother.

Although it sticks in the throat we really should be wanting all the Scottish teams to win, kinda hard though for me

[theonlywayisup]

A very good summary - also I hope that will explain to all those who say "**** the coefficient" that their joy at seeing Scottish teams get knocked out is not doing our club (Hibernian) any good.

Just imagine how much sweeter it would have been had we been placed directly into the Group Stage for the Europa Cup in 2016 after our Scottish Cup win - that would have been the scenario had we (Scotland) been in 12th place.

Or had we actually made it into 2nd place last season, we could have been vying for a Champions League place had we (Scotland) been ranked in 15th place.

It's up to our Scottish teams to win as many games as we can to increase our ranking - so for Euro nights only, let's hope The Rangers etc do well.

[Jim44]

Say what you want about coefficients and European participation, for Joe Bloggs, seeing your team doing well on a Saturday and enjoying the failure of our peers is the bread and butter of the average football supporter. I’m certainly not going start keeping my fingers, legs and anything else crossed for other teams to be successful on the off chance that we might occasionally benefit slightly from it. Call me blinkered and parochial, but I’m only interested in Hibs and stuff other teams.

[Winston Ingram]

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A very good summary - also I hope that will explain to all those who say "**** the coefficient" that their joy at seeing Scottish teams get knocked out is not doing our club (Hibernian) any good.

Just imagine how much sweeter it would have been had we been placed directly into the Group Stage for the Europa Cup in 2016 after our Scottish Cup win - that would have been the scenario had we (Scotland) been in 12th place.

Or had we actually made it into 2nd place last season, we could have been vying for a Champions League place had we (Scotland) been ranked in 15th place.

It's up to our Scottish teams to win as many games as we can to increase our ranking - so for Euro nights only, let's hope The Rangers etc do well.

Maybe not in Europe but it is domestically.

It’s turned Celtic into a run away train.

I wouldn’t swap a couple of trips in Europe for the league to become a procession.

I hope Celtic get battered tonight.

[Eyrie]

So it helps Scotland's co-efficient if Celtc, Sevco and Aberdeen win their home games and then get knocked out in the away leg.

I can live with that.

[theonlywayisup]

Good week for the coefficient. Hopefully same again next week.

[frazeHFC]

So that's 8 wins and 2 draws this season in qualifying. Off to a good start compared to our countries normal showing.

Celtic 3 wins
Hibs 3 wins
Rangers 2 wins and 1 draw
Aberdeen 1 draw

[Ozyhibby]

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So that's 8 wins and 2 draws this season in qualifying. Off to a good start compared to our countries normal showing.

Celtic 3 wins
Hibs 3 wins
Rangers 2 wins and 1 draw
Aberdeen 1 draw

9 points so far. We only got 16 last year so that’s a good start.
We need about 26 each year for 5 years to be getting that extra CL place and later entry into euro qualifying.
As a club we need to improve our personal co efficient to make sure we are seeded for whatever round we go into.


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[PatHead]

Thought it was 2 points for a win and 1 for a draw?

[Michael]

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Thought it was 2 points for a win and 1 for a draw?

I think that's in the proper competition, not qualifying.

[PatHead]

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I think that's in the proper competition, not qualifying.

Darn it. No wonder the “big “ countries have it sewn up. You

[.Sean.]

How did it get so bad?

I remember not that long ago (well around the time we played Dnipro etc) it seems the Scottish champions went straight into the Champions League, second got you one maybe two qualifiers and 3rd put you straight into the UEFA cup proper?

[Jack Hackett]

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I think that's in the proper competition, not qualifying.

Butbutbut, I thought the yams had proved that the qualifying rounds are the proper competition? That's what they claimed when they had a qualifying game in the CL some years back

[jgl07]

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Thought it was 2 points for a win and 1 for a draw?

Not at this level at least. It is one point for a win and half a point for a draw.

[hibbysam]

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How did it get so bad?

I remember not that long ago (well around the time we played Dnipro etc) it seems the Scottish champions went straight into the Champions League, second got you one maybe two qualifiers and 3rd put you straight into the UEFA cup proper?

Unfortunately because of the cup runner up spot Sean. Gretna QOTS ourselves etc all getting in and getting horsed early doors helped not one but. I’d love to see the stats of ties won/lost by Scottish teams in the last 10 years. Can only imagine it would be absolutely woeful.

[patlowe]

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How did it get so bad?

I remember not that long ago (well around the time we played Dnipro etc) it seems the Scottish champions went straight into the Champions League, second got you one maybe two qualifiers and 3rd put you straight into the UEFA cup proper?

I know what you mean. Bar the OF's respective UEFA runs, I don't remember Scottish teams performing so well (relative to now) to justify such a difference. Scottish teams (outwith Celtic) basically compete for the equivalent of Intertoto Cup matches in the summer now. Something to do with the UEFA Cup/Europa League expansion a few years back maybe?

[worcesterhibby]

excellent informative thread..thanks OP

[Ozyhibby]

Update with last nights results.


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[jonny]

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Update with last nights results.


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How come England have a higher coefficient than Scotland for this year already? They've had 1 draw where Scotland have had 9 wins and a draw.

[SChibs]

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How come England have a higher coefficient than Scotland for this year already? They've had 1 draw where Scotland have had 9 wins and a draw.

I think it's taken over the last 4 year's but not 100% sure how it works. Someone may be able to clarify

[Ozyhibby]

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I think it's taken over the last 4 year's but not 100% sure how it works. Someone may be able to clarify

They are sorted on this years figures though so not sure why England are higher. Will investigate.


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[JeMeSouviens]

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They are sorted on this years figures though so not sure why England are higher. Will investigate.


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You get bonus coefficient points for reaching group stages, including getting there automatically.

[jonny]

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You get bonus coefficient points for reaching group stages, including getting there automatically.

That'll answer the question then.

[JeMeSouviens]

The goto site for this stuff is Bert Kassies' (a Dutch UEFA competition obsessive) UEFA pages:

https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/

Ranking including up to date results for this season is here:

https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert...crank2019.html

Coefficient points gained this season are here:

https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert...ccoef2019.html

[jonny]

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The goto site for this stuff is Bert Kassies' (a Dutch UEFA competition obsessive) UEFA pages:

https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/

Ranking including up to date results for this season is here:

https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert...crank2019.html

Coefficient points gained this season are here:

https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert...ccoef2019.html

Excellent, thanks.

[SJNB Hibby]

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Unfortunately because of the cup runner up spot Sean. Gretna QOTS ourselves etc all getting in and getting horsed early doors helped not one but. I’d love to see the stats of ties won/lost by Scottish teams in the last 10 years. Can only imagine it would be absolutely woeful.

Since Rangers reached the UEFA CUP FINAL:

P	W	D	L	f	a
224	68	58	98	264	312

[Booker5time]

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The goto site for this stuff is Bert Kassies' (a Dutch UEFA competition obsessive) UEFA pages:

https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/

Ranking including up to date results for this season is here:

https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert...crank2019.html

Coefficient points gained this season are here:

https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert...ccoef2019.html

Thanks, Going by that , our clubs needs to better the average points that are droping of this season to start moving up.

Example if we averged 5 points a season over the next 5 years,we would jump up to around 11 place. So it makes a big difference if all our teams can win some matches.

[Ozyhibby]

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Thanks, Going by that , our clubs needs to better the average points that are droping of this season to start moving up.

Example if we averged 5 points a season over the next 5 years,we would jump up to around 11 place. So it makes a big difference if all our teams can win some matches.

To get to position 15 where we get 2 CL places and 3 Europa places we need about 26 points a season.



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[Hibee Ryan]

So basically the system is rigged in that the big countries gain co-officent points before they even kick a ball which then further splits the gap which is why you can see a huge drop from 11th to 15th and below... Why does that not surprise me

Making it near on impossible for these countries (England, Spain, Germany) to actually drop down the seedings