One for those interested in stats.
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Thread: Statistical analysis
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15-06-2018 07:29 PM #1
Statistical analysis
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15-06-2018 08:27 PM #2This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Flawed logic?
Scoring rates depends on
how good the team is that you are playing in,
how good opposing teams defend,
what type of tactics your team and opposition use,
whether you have a strike partner and if so how good that strike partner is.
IMO those and numerous other variables will have a greater baring on a strikers scoring rate than those report stats.Last edited by CMurdoch; 15-06-2018 at 08:36 PM.
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15-06-2018 08:36 PM #3Elephant StoneLeft by mutual consent!
On the surface, the permanent signing of Florian Kamberi was a no-brainer for Hibs. He came in & scored seven goals in half-a-season & averaged 0.50 goals per 90 minutes (note: I don't include penalties when evaluating players & Kamberi slotted home two of those). That's an average of a goal scored in every other match.
So, 9 goals in 14 to those of us who do count all the goals.
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15-06-2018 08:39 PM #4This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
He seems to be saying that players that score a high percentage of shots (which are on target) will score a lower percentage of shots (on target) next season because they will move towards the average percentage for players in the league.
So by that logic you would want to sign a player which hits the target a lot but doesn't score many because they're percentage is bound to improve because of an average of all players? Doesn't sound right be me but i may be misunderstanding.
Aren't some players just better than others?Last edited by GlazedDonut; 15-06-2018 at 08:45 PM.
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15-06-2018 08:44 PM #5
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15-06-2018 09:17 PM #6Elephant StoneLeft by mutual consent!This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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15-06-2018 09:50 PM #7
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15-06-2018 09:59 PM #8This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
He's back with his laptop again
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15-06-2018 10:04 PM #9Elephant StoneLeft by mutual consent!This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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15-06-2018 10:38 PM #10
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I think it is an interesting read. Players get signed on the basis of a hot spell of form and then never do it again. He is saying that despite one of Kamberi's stats being above the average he is below elsewhere so chance are he will still score goals even if one of teh stats drop as it inevitibly will with most players. I can't claim to understand it all but I hope our scouts use all of these and the more old fashioned eye for a player when choosing our new recruits.
There was one stats that was blindingly obvious when McLaren and Kamberi signed last year. If you get men in the box you will score more goals.
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16-06-2018 12:50 AM #11
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I do like a bit of statistics, but sometimes people read into things just a bit too much.
I don't understand the guys logic that Kamberi can score so well in the second half of a season but then not keep that up?
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16-06-2018 06:45 AM #12This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
If McLaren hadn’t missed up in Aberdeen then Flo would not have taken those pens and would have only been on 7 goals. Would that have made him worth less to us? No chance.
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16-06-2018 06:54 AM #13
I read something of his before about why Hearts signed McLean and not play one of the youngsters. His theory McLean was a bad signing which i think we all know but linked to an analysis of young strikers in Scotland. Covered it in some detail but in the end he felt Oli Shaw is the best tallent.
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16-06-2018 07:00 AM #14
I stopped reading when he said that Maclaren got much more involved in linking up play. Guys never seen Kamberi or Hibs play recently.
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16-06-2018 07:06 AM #15This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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16-06-2018 08:41 AM #16This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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16-06-2018 09:35 AM #17
All it really says is that Flo's conversion rate is unsustainable over an entire season. That's probably correct. He's also saying that Flo's shot accuracy is bound to improve as that's also unsustainable, which is also likely to be correct. I wouldn't take these stats to heart, they're purely analytic and obviously don't account for unquantifiable variables such as confidence, potential or partnerships etc. Flo's charts make for good reading.
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16-06-2018 09:45 AM #18Elephant StoneLeft by mutual consent!This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Last edited by Elephant Stone; 16-06-2018 at 09:48 AM.
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16-06-2018 09:59 AM #19
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Why is Flo's conversion rate unsustainable over a whole season? He did it over a full half season just fine?...
I could understand if Flo had played 2 games all season and scored 1 goal then yes that's not a large enough sample size. But we're talking about half a season here not a couple of games?...
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16-06-2018 10:04 AM #20
All of this ignores his greatest attributes (in my opinion): the ball sticks to him up top which brings others into play and he bullies defenders. Without him, our team wouldn't have scored as many goals as we did in the second part of the season.
If Kamberi only scores 9 goals the whole of next season, he'll still have added real quality to the way we play.
Grant Holt is one of my favourite ever Hibs players and he didn't score much, his goals tally was irrelevant because of the other strengths he brought to the team.
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16-06-2018 10:05 AM #21This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
That’s why we generally play an out and out goal scorer beside him, like Shaw or Maclaren
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16-06-2018 10:13 AM #23
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What a way to take all the fun out of football.
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16-06-2018 10:14 AM #24This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Basically he was on red hot form for us last year. He scored more goals than would have been expected from his analytics. That might continue, or, it might balance out over the course of 40 odd games.
Stats are stats, a poker hand that has 90% equity on the flop is still gonna lose 1/10 times, but it isn't possible to predict when that might be. Pinch of salt with all this stuff! ☺
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16-06-2018 10:17 AM #25
Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics
As the heading above says, all figures can be manipulated to bend the truth, just depends on who is doing them.
Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics, what does it all mean.
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16-06-2018 11:48 AM #26
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16-06-2018 02:37 PM #28
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The writer asserts that players who have done something better (or worse) than average for a while are likely to move closer to an average performance over a longer period. That assumes that achievement in football is a random matter. What he needs to take into account is that players sometimes achieve more (less) than average because they're good (useless).
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16-06-2018 02:40 PM #29
I think he is saying they were below average on their career last year so expect to see a bounce back. See a lot more of this in american sports and theres some truth to it.
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16-06-2018 02:59 PM #30
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I'm not dismissing statistical analysis of performance. I'm just not convinced by the approach this article's taking.
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