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  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    So I wonder why it is being used as the focal point and stand out item of the report then?
    By the press? Easy headline I suppose. Whether you want to portray it as brave aspiration or evil mendacity.


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  3. #32
    @hibs.net private member lord bunberry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by One Day Soon View Post
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    In fact I think it shows exactly the opposite.

    And if the SNP are wise they'll use this as a starting point for a lengthy discussion on how to deliver growth in the Scottish economy in a way that transforms the nature of any future debate on independence. In the short and medium term there's no pain-free currency option and neither is there an answer on filling Scotland's structural deficit - growth is what is needed to resolve that equation, which is exactly why Andrew Wilson was asked to look at the growth challenge as the centre piece of this report.

    If you stick with the pound the rUK controls your currency - including mortgage rates, inflation levels and money supply.
    If you leave the UK you're out of Europe so no Euro. To join it you need to accept the Euro and meet its preconditions. If you succeed then the EU controls your currency - including again mortgage rates, inflation levels and money supply.
    If you set up a Scottish currency - the groat or whatever - you need a huge mass of reserves so that currency speculators can't basically torch the value of your currency overnight when they decide there's a killing to be made. Those reserves can only come from an economy that is strong, has high growth rates and a public account that is properly balanced.

    So, growth is the thing. Curiously being able to deliver growth is also what unionists require because if you can deliver that now you can make the case for the Union delivering for the Scottish economy within the current constitutional settlement.

    I would ague that there has been no real economic policy for Scotland since the beginning of devolution from any party. In fact most politicians in the Parliament will struggle to engage with this.
    I’m not disagreeing with you on that, but I still think the stage is being set for another referendum, and the points you make are ones that will need to be answered during the campaign.

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  4. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    So I wonder why it is being used as the focal point and stand out item of the report then?
    It isn't (we've had advance access to the report, so I've seen it already - our Institute director was on BBC Radio talking about it earlier this morning).

  5. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sylar View Post
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    It isn't (we've had advance access to the report, so I've seen it already - our Institute director was on BBC Radio talking about it earlier this morning).
    It was, maybe not so much as more detail has been released but it certainly was the focal point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    It was, maybe not so much as more detail has been released but it certainly was the focal point.
    It's not the focus of the report.

    The media might be spinning a story around that one aspect, but that's not the same thing.

  7. #36
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    Having skim read the summary Iíve got to say that the ĎMehí comment above is probably the most accurate commentary I have seen.

    All very vague and aspirational with lots of notional targets and ambitions.

    An interesting stat was the near 9% deficit they suggest Scotland is running just now.

    The other main strand I noticed was lots of proposed commissions and central strategies...probably the opposite of what a highly productive economy needs.


    So far so bland as far as I can see.


  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Pointer View Post
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    If the Nats are saying we will be £4,100 each better off, I know it will be pie-in the-sky nonsense. Equally a Scottish pound.

    Confetti springs to mind.
    Absolutely, cause Scotland is uniquely incapable of having it's own currency.

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  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    Having skim read the summary Iíve got to say that the ĎMehí comment above is probably the most accurate commentary I have seen.

    All very vague and aspirational with lots of notional targets and ambitions.

    An interesting stat was the near 9% deficit they suggest Scotland is running just now.

    The other main strand I noticed was lots of proposed commissions and central strategies...probably the opposite of what a highly productive economy needs.


    So far so bland as far as I can see.
    I'm not sure I understand where this negativity is coming from. The SNP produce a report suggesting they'd like to investigate the best way to stimulate Scotland's economy and improve our public finances and your response is "meh"?

    "Lots of proposed commissions"? I see two proposed Commissions - I haven't read the whole thing, so there may be more - one on productivity and one on infrastructure. If we are to build a new independent country isn't it a good idea to have people looking at what infrastructure is required and how to improve productivity? It's probably not going to happen by itself.

    Perhaps you have suggestions on how you'd do things differently? Or maybe you're simply not interested, in which case I can understand your response.

  10. #40
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    Maybe we should have placed the report in a locked room where unionist MP's can book a timeslot to view it, but without any phones or camera equipment.

    Mostly positive vibes on MSM, with the odd grumble, so we're moving forward.

    Loving the immigration discussion.


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  11. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by grunt View Post
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    I'm not sure I understand where this negativity is coming from. The SNP produce a report suggesting they'd like to investigate the best way to stimulate Scotland's economy and improve our public finances and your response is "meh"?

    "Lots of proposed commissions"? I see two proposed Commissions - I haven't read the whole thing, so there may be more - one on productivity and one on infrastructure. If we are to build a new independent country isn't it a good idea to have people looking at what infrastructure is required and how to improve productivity? It's probably not going to happen by itself.

    Perhaps you have suggestions on how you'd do things differently? Or maybe you're simply not interested, in which case I can understand your response.
    My comment was on commissions and strategies: to name just a few

    Productivity Commission

    Gender pay commission

    Infrastructure commission

    Scottish fiscal commission

    National economic strategy

    International government and multi national organisation strategy

    Strategy on participation and inclusion

    Export growth strategy

    National brand strategy

    Digital strategy

    Universities growth strategy

    Etc etc.

    My point is a general one...who creates all of these wonderful strategies, how do they know they are the right strategy, where does one commission or strategy stop and the other one start, why do they think that companies, universities and the economy as a whole needs grand plans and cunning strategies to succeed?

    It seems to me they have looked at some of the worlds economies and then went down a huge rabbit hole in terms of how such conditions (quite how relevant New Zealand is to Scotland I have no idea) could be replicated here with their answer being lots of grand strategies, targets (10 years of 2.5% growth then 15 years of 3.5% gdp growth! Ha if only the SNP and all their strategies to date had achieved anything like that) and centrally decided priorities.

    Itís a ĎMehí from me as I was hoping for some proper radical thinking that would challenge the status quo. Instead we get a bland list of nothing really new and certainly nothing very radical, exciting or challenging.

  12. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    My comment was on commissions and strategies: to name just a few

    Productivity Commission

    Gender pay commission

    Infrastructure commission

    Scottish fiscal commission

    National economic strategy

    International government and multi national organisation strategy

    Strategy on participation and inclusion

    Export growth strategy

    National brand strategy

    Digital strategy

    Universities growth strategy

    Etc etc.

    My point is a general one...who creates all of these wonderful strategies, how do they know they are the right strategy, where does one commission or strategy stop and the other one start, why do they think that companies, universities and the economy as a whole needs grand plans and cunning strategies to succeed?

    It seems to me they have looked at some of the worlds economies and then went down a huge rabbit hole in terms of how such conditions (quite how relevant New Zealand is to Scotland I have no idea) could be replicated here with their answer being lots of grand strategies, targets (10 years of 2.5% growth then 15 years of 3.5% gdp growth! Ha if only the SNP and all their strategies to date had achieved anything like that) and centrally decided priorities.

    Itís a ĎMehí from me as I was hoping for some proper radical thinking that would challenge the status quo. Instead we get a bland list of nothing really new and certainly nothing very radical, exciting or challenging.
    I haven't even read the summary yet, but the key plank of growth would appear to be growing the tax base, ie. incentivised immigration and inward investment. These are things completely outside the current devolved gov's control.

    Being inside the EU while Britain exits make these very achievable goals, imo. We are about to be kicked in the nads by Brexit but also given a long term strategic advantage if we choose to use it.

  13. #43
    The Beeb's Douglas Fraser:

    From what we know about it so far, the report of the Sustainable Growth Commission sounds like a serious document for serious times.

    It is a more mature approach than we've seen for a long time, and surely demands a mature response.

  14. #44
    @hibs.net private member lord bunberry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens View Post
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    The Beeb's Douglas Fraser:
    We certainly wonít get a mature response. Iíve already read stuff on twitter comparing us to small nations like Moldova and Nicaragua

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  15. #45
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    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    Itís a ĎMehí from me as I was hoping for some proper radical thinking that would challenge the status quo. Instead we get a bland list of nothing really new and certainly nothing very radical, exciting or challenging.
    So what do you suggest we do instead?

  16. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by lord bunberry View Post
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    We certainly wonít get a mature response. Iíve already read stuff on twitter comparing us to small nations like Moldova and Nicaragua
    Iím not so sure Twitter is the place to look for mature debate from either side.
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  17. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by marinello59 View Post
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    Iím not so sure Twitter is the place to look for mature debate from either side.
    After taking a break of 1-2 years from using Twitter to follow the independence debate I decided to have a look, after a few minutes I just wanted to shut myself away in a dark room.

    I hope the report at the very least starts a debate on the strategies for growth of the Scottish economy.

  18. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by IGRIGI View Post
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    After taking a break of 1-2 years from using Twitter to follow the independence debate I decided to have a look, after a few minutes I just wanted to shut myself away in a dark room.

    I hope the report at the very least starts a debate on the strategies for growth of the Scottish economy.
    Seems very cynical to only begin a debate now after a good number of years in charge? Some might say its only because they're in the dying days of a majority and other parties especially Labour under Jeremy Corbyn and Richard Leonard here are growing in stature. Leonard's been very impressive recently now he's becoming experienced in the ways of being Scottish Labour leader against Sturgeon who looks as if she is being led by the fringes of her party and being bounced into talking up separation.

  19. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by lgnsh70 View Post
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    Seems very cynical to only begin a debate now after a good number of years in charge? Some might say its only because they're in the dying days of a majority and other parties especially Labour under Jeremy Corbyn and Richard Leonard here are growing in stature. Leonard's been very impressive recently now he's becoming experienced in the ways of being Scottish Labour leader against Sturgeon who looks as if she is being led by the fringes of her party and being bounced into talking up separation.
    D'you think?

  20. #50
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    I havent read it in any great detail, but i think having this approach is a good one, at least in terms of furnishing a debate.

    I met one of the commission members at a dinner and she was interesting to talk to.

    The big problem as i see it is the transition. I have no trouble believing that in 15 years+, and indy scotland could be doing well (whatever that means to different people, itself a problematic discussion for another thread), but i struggle to see how we get there without some pretty major economic shocks. Solve that conundrum, and the SNP will have made real progress.

    Im not sure they have, but good on them for trying.

    A side note, but does nobody else think a founding partner of a major lobbying consultancy is a curious choice to potentially lead the economic development of his country? I can imagine the furore of the boss of weber shandwick or lexington was writing the post brexit script for the tory govt in London?

  21. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by lgnsh70 View Post
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    Seems very cynical to only begin a debate now after a good number of years in charge? Some might say its only because they're in the dying days of a majority and other parties especially Labour under Jeremy Corbyn and Richard Leonard here are growing in stature. Leonard's been very impressive recently now he's becoming experienced in the ways of being Scottish Labour leader against Sturgeon who looks as if she is being led by the fringes of her party and being bounced into talking up separation.

    Do you have both Jeremy and Richard plants on your window sill? Keep watering them mate.

  22. #52
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    I havent read it in any great detail, but i think having this approach is a good one, at least in terms of furnishing a debate.

    I met one of the commission members at a dinner and she was interesting to talk to.

    The big problem as i see it is the transition. I have no trouble believing that in 15 years+, and indy scotland could be doing well (whatever that means to different people, itself a problematic discussion for another thread), but i struggle to see how we get there without some pretty major economic shocks. Solve that conundrum, and the SNP will have made real progress.

    Im not sure they have, but good on them for trying.

    A side note, but does nobody else think a founding partner of a major lobbying consultancy is a curious choice to potentially lead the economic development of his country? I can imagine the furore of the boss of weber shandwick or lexington was writing the post brexit script for the tory govt in London?
    The proposed by the snp stand alone Scottish currency could be worth the equivalent of the russian rouble for a good number of years whereby public sector worker wages, pensions and those on low incomes and benefits could be decimated until whenever leading to poverty possibly never seen before. However if this is a price worth paying for independence many might say its worth it.

  23. #53
    [QUOTE=snooky;5414596]D'you think? [

    Yes snooky.

    What concerns me is the reality of utopian thinking.

    The scottish currency as proposed by the snp will very probably be like snow on a dyke, there one day and not the next as American tourists pin it to their wall back home in the USA as a laughable lamento of their scottish trip.

    Hey, see what I got over in scotland, a scottish note, its worth next to nothing but I'm going to pin it up on the wall next to the drachma and lira.

    God help the public sector, disabled, unemployed etc.

    Mon the Cabbage!!!

  24. #54
    On the separate currency from what I understand they do not propose it from day 1, we would use the pound for a period of time until we were in the position to move to a separate currency.

    We would most likely tie it to the pound for a further period of time before making it a free floating currency.

    Mark Carney of the Bank of England stated again recently that monetary union is economically possible, it's all down to the politics.

    I'd imagine there would be grandstanding again of why it would be blocked by a rUK government but I would imagine they would be in line given the size of the possible shock to the balance of trade if the significant level of Scottish exports was to be pulled.

  25. #55
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    [QUOTE=lgnsh70;5414615]
    Quote Originally Posted by snooky View Post
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    D'you think? [

    Yes snooky.

    What concerns me is the reality of utopian thinking.

    The scottish currency as proposed by the snp will very probably be like snow on a dyke, there one day and not the next as American tourists pin it to their wall back home in the USA as a laughable lamento of their scottish trip.

    Hey, see what I got over in scotland, a scottish note, its worth next to nothing but I'm going to pin it up on the wall next to the drachma and lira.

    God help the public sector, disabled, unemployed etc.

    Mon the Cabbage!!!
    But surely if people buy a currency using their own currency and then just use that to stuff their mattresses then that increases the value of the currency bought?

  26. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by lgnsh70 View Post
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    The proposed by the snp stand alone Scottish currency could be worth the equivalent of the russian rouble for a good number of years whereby public sector worker wages, pensions and those on low incomes and benefits could be decimated until whenever leading to poverty possibly never seen before. However if this is a price worth paying for independence many might say its worth it.
    No doubt, many will see it as a price worth paying, and many more will simply discount the possibility. However these groups arent the ones who need to be convinced.

    Personally speaking, i would need enormous reassurance to even consider moving my pension, savings etc out of sterling, and i suspect many more would do the same - i cant see how huge capital flight could be avoided, putting any new currency on the defensive from the outset?

  27. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by IGRIGI View Post
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    On the separate currency from what I understand they do not propose it from day 1, we would use the pound for a period of time until we were in the position to move to a separate currency.

    We would most likely tie it to the pound for a further period of time before making it a free floating currency.

    Mark Carney of the Bank of England stated again recently that monetary union is economically possible, it's all down to the politics.

    I'd imagine there would be grandstanding again of why it would be blocked by a rUK government but I would imagine they would be in line given the size of the possible shock to the balance of trade if the significant level of Scottish exports was to be pulled.
    I doubt it, englabd would play hardball in the same way as the EU imo, as would be their right.

  28. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    I doubt it, englabd would play hardball in the same way as the EU imo, as would be their right.
    I think the size of the effect on the balance of trade would be too much for them to risk.

  29. #59
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    God help the public sector, disabled, unemployed etc.

    Mon the Cabbage!!![/QUOTE]

    Well done on being first up on the project fear stage.

  30. #60
    @hibs.net private member CropleyWasGod's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=lgnsh70;5414615]
    Quote Originally Posted by snooky View Post
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    D'you think? [

    Yes snooky.

    What concerns me is the reality of utopian thinking.

    The scottish currency as proposed by the snp will very probably be like snow on a dyke, there one day and not the next as American tourists pin it to their wall back home in the USA as a laughable lamento of their scottish trip.

    Hey, see what I got over in scotland, a scottish note, its worth next to nothing but I'm going to pin it up on the wall next to the drachma and lira.

    God help the public sector, disabled, unemployed etc.

    Mon the Cabbage!!!
    This new currency, according to the reports I have read and heard, would only be introduced after about 10 years and only if economic tests were met.



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