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  1. #1

    SNP Growth Commission Report

    Gets published tomorrow. As you would expect, some bits are being leaked and spun already. Twitter is going to be an unreadable nightmare as the zealots on both sides tell you it's a warped fantasy perpetrated by evil anti-English bigots or the greatest thing since sliced milk and honey.

    Meanwhile, in the oasis of thoughtful calm that is the .net Holy Ground, I'm sure we'll all try and digest the report fully before undertaking the usual quality analysis that's the hallmark of this forum.

    Worth a reminder: the remit:

    COMMISSION REMIT

    The Commission will assess the projections for Scotlandís economy and public finances, consider the implications for our economy and finances of different potential governance scenarios, and make recommendations for policy on:

    Measures to boost economic growth and improve Scotland's public finances - both now in the aftermath of the EU referendum and in the context of independence;

    The potential for and best use of savings from UK programmes in the event of independence, such as Trident;

    The range of transitional cost and benefits associated with independence and arrangements for dealing with future revenue windfalls, including future North Sea Revenues.

    In addition, the Commission will take account of the recommendations of the 2013 Fiscal Commission reports, and the outcome of the EU referendum, and consider the most appropriate monetary policy arrangements to underpin a programme for sustainable growth in an independent Scotland.
    And makeup of the commission:

    Andrew Wilson (Chairman), former SNP MSP and Economy and Finance spokesperson, Founding Partner, Charlotte St Partners
    Cllr Marie Burns, Shadow Economy and Communities Spokesperson, North Ayrshire Council and former Director of Skills Interventions at Skills Development Scotland
    Prof Iain Docherty, Professor of Public Policy and Governance, University of Glasgow
    Kate Forbes, MSP for Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
    Prof Andrew Hughes Hallet, Professor of Economics and Public Policy, George Mason University and University of St Andrews
    Dan McDonald, Businessman and Founder of N56 group
    Derek MacKay MSP, Scottish Government Cabinet Secretary for Finance
    Marie Macklin CBE, Chief Executive of the Klin Group and Macklin Enterprise Partnership
    Jim Mather, Former Enterprise Minister and Visiting Professor at the University of Strathclyde and Heriot Watt University
    Roger Mullin MP, SNP Westminster Finance Spokesperson
    Prof Catherine Schenk, Professor of International Economic History, University of Glasgow
    Mark Shaw, Chief Executive, Hazledene
    Shirley-Anne Somerville, Minister for Further Education, Higher Education and Science
    Petra Wetzel, Founder and Managing Director WEST Brewery
    I actually really like this forum for its diversity of perspective, so looking forward to discussing it. Having said that I don't expect any of the Unionists to be swayed or any of the Nats to give up.

    As a side note, I actually knew Andrew Wilson a bit at Uni, we worked together on a summer job between 1st and 2nd year. Nice bloke and diehard Motherwell fan.


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  3. #2
    Testimonial Due Stranraer's Avatar
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    Looking forward to it's release. My paper today says there will be a £4100 "boost" for every Scot so onwards to indy!

  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Stranraer View Post
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    Looking forward to it's release. My paper today says there will be a £4100 "boost" for every Scot so onwards to indy!
    Jesus Christ on a bike! Exactly the sort of stupid forecast I was hoping to avoid. The only thing worse would be if it was on the side of a bus.

  5. #4
    Coaching Staff One Day Soon's Avatar
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    I think this will turn out to be quite a big 'Meh' moment for a variety of reasons.

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    Quote Originally Posted by One Day Soon View Post
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    I think this will turn out to be quite a big 'Meh' moment for a variety of reasons.
    Most probably but if it has any serious considerations on how a Scottish currency would work it may be worth something.

    What I hope it is not is full of fantasy predictions and forecasts.

  7. #6
    @hibs.net private member lord bunberry's Avatar
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    What it does show is that the second referendum isnít far away.

    GIRLS DONT LIKE BOYS GIRLS LIKE SIMON MURRAY

  8. #7
    First Team Regular The Pointer's Avatar
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    If the Nats are saying we will be £4,100 each better off, I know it will be pie-in the-sky nonsense. Equally a Scottish pound.

    Confetti springs to mind.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by The Pointer View Post
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    If the Nats are saying we will be £4,100 each better off, I know it will be pie-in the-sky nonsense. Equally a Scottish pound.

    Confetti springs to mind.
    Well that was a helpful contribution.

  10. #9
    Quoting GDP per capita increases or decreases (which is what this £4100 is supposed to refer to) as if every actual person will be personally enriched or impoverished by that amount is one of the dumbest bits of journalistic pish we have to put up with.

    I can't figure out if it's done to be deliberately misleading or if the average journo just doesn't understand the figures they've been told to parrot.

    Anyway, fwiw, this one isn't even a dumb forecast that RyeSloan would hate, all it says is that Scotland currently lags the median GDP per capita of a group of 12 similarly sized countries by £4100.

    In other words, under our present constitutional arrangement we're doing pish.

    No **** sherlock.

  11. #10
    The Scottish currency would in my opinion if we ever were allowed to have a second referendum and if which is still a massive if we did vote to break away from the rest of the UK be worth jube jubes in the real world of the Euro, Dollar, Yen and UK pound etc. In little time at all I'm in no doubt we'd have to go cap in hand to the EU begging them to let us in and adopt the Euro therefore becoming an insignificant tiny region of the European Union.

    Mon the Cabbage!!!

  12. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by lgnsh70 View Post
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    The Scottish currency would in my opinion if we ever were allowed to have a second referendum and if which is still a massive if we did vote to break away from the rest of the UK be worth jube jubes in the real world of the Euro, Dollar, Yen and UK pound etc. In little time at all I'm in no doubt we'd have to go cap in hand to the EU begging them to let us in and adopt the Euro therefore becoming an insignificant tiny region of the European Union.

    Mon the Cabbage!!!
    Is there any reasoning behind your opinion? Why can, picking a random nearby example, Denmark, manage to sustain its own currency but we couldn't?

  13. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens View Post
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    Is there any reasoning behind your opinion? Why can, picking a random nearby example, Denmark, manage to sustain its own currency but we couldn't?
    If we ever do vote to break away then I'll be of course hoping it works out just fine however i'm entitled to my opinion just as everybody else is and if you don't like it there's not much I can do about it.

    I'm not against independence per say but like a lot of folk need a great deal of convincing that it would be better than what we'd be giving up. No one could reasonably say with certainty that the transition would not cost jobs and a downgrade of the money in their pocket, pensions and any other number of upheaval consequences.

    You might be arguing for it as is your right to but please respect others right to point out very possible effects of leaving the UK would involve.

    Mon the Cabbage!!!

  14. #13
    @hibs.net private member PeeJay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lgnsh70 View Post
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    The Scottish currency would in my opinion if we ever were allowed to have a second referendum and if which is still a massive if we did vote to break away from the rest of the UK be worth jube jubes in the real world of the Euro, Dollar, Yen and UK pound etc. In little time at all I'm in no doubt we'd have to go cap in hand to the EU begging them to let us in and adopt the Euro therefore becoming an insignificant tiny region of the European Union.

    Mon the Cabbage!!!
    No - if the Scottish currency is worth no more than "jube jubes" as you say then an independent Scotland won't be able to go "cap in hand" to the EU to join the EU and the "euro" - the EU would not accept Scotland - certainly not as "beggars" nor as a country with a failed currency ... the convergence criteria alone would be more than a stumbling block ...


    .... Die spinnen, die Briten ....

  15. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by lgnsh70 View Post
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    The Scottish currency would in my opinion if we ever were allowed to have a second referendum and if which is still a massive if we did vote to break away from the rest of the UK be worth jube jubes in the real world of the Euro, Dollar, Yen and UK pound etc. In little time at all I'm in no doubt we'd have to go cap in hand to the EU begging them to let us in and adopt the Euro therefore becoming an insignificant tiny region of the European Union.

    Mon the Cabbage!!!
    Iceland, population 337,000. Own currency.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lgnsh70 View Post
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    If we ever do vote to break away then I'll be of course hoping it works out just fine however i'm entitled to my opinion just as everybody else is and if you don't like it there's not much I can do about it.

    I'm not against independence per say but like a lot of folk need a great deal of convincing that it would be better than what we'd be giving up. No one could reasonably say with certainty that the transition would not cost jobs and a downgrade of the money in their pocket, pensions and any other number of upheaval consequences.

    You might be arguing for it as is your right to but please respect others right to point out very possible effects of leaving the UK would involve.

    Mon the Cabbage!!!
    I donít think anyone was doubting your right to an opinion, the question was about the reasoning that led you to that opinion.

    FWIW even in the world of fiat currencies there normally needs to be some capital at the central bank to back that currency...so the implementation of a new Scottish currency is rather difficult.

    And thatís before you consider the possible implications of a Scottish currency free floating against sterling and the potential for significant loss in value of assets that were previously valued in gbp but are now valued in the Scottish pound (assuming the currency move was a negative one).

    That kind of run on the Scottish pound is a real possibility and you just need to look to the likes of Turkey as to what the main outcome of it is...central banks desperately trying to defend the currency by jacking interest rates. Those old enough to remember the last days of the ERM will remember the horror of 15% interest rates.

    Anyhoo thatís the piece Iím interested in as itís appears to be he most difficult piece of the Indy puzzle...without it there is little sense in seeking full political autonomy but remaining in a currency union, that argument didnít wash last time and still wonít.

  17. #16
    @hibs.net private member johnbc70's Avatar
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    Is this based on an oil price of $X? Or is it not that type of report. Although I see the price is rising.

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  19. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by lgnsh70 View Post
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    If we ever do vote to break away then I'll be of course hoping it works out just fine however i'm entitled to my opinion just as everybody else is and if you don't like it there's not much I can do about it.

    I'm not against independence per say but like a lot of folk need a great deal of convincing that it would be better than what we'd be giving up. No one could reasonably say with certainty that the transition would not cost jobs and a downgrade of the money in their pocket, pensions and any other number of upheaval consequences.

    You might be arguing for it as is your right to but please respect others right to point out very possible effects of leaving the UK would involve.

    Mon the Cabbage!!!
    Youíre absolutely entitled to your opinion whether I like it or not, but if youíre going to make a bold statement about a Scottish currency being worth sweeties then I think you should be able to back it up.

  20. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens View Post
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    Youíre absolutely entitled to your opinion whether I like it or not, but if youíre going to make a bold statement about a Scottish currency being worth sweeties then I think you should be able to back it up.
    Wasn't a 'bold statement' at all, merely giving my opinion based upon my thoughts.

    Mon the Cabbage!!!

  21. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by lgnsh70 View Post
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    Wasn't a 'bold statement' at all, merely giving my opinion based upon my thoughts.

    Mon the Cabbage!!!
    Well itís not going to be much of a discussion if you donít share any of those thoughts?

  22. #21
    Quote Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens View Post
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    Well it’s not going to be much of a discussion if you don’t share any of those thoughts?
    I never was a one for setting out my workings at the side of exam papers mate. If you want to try to convince folk like myself who have doubts of a stand alone Scottish Pound being successful then I'm very willing to read your thoughts on the matters. I may have doubts but I've still got an open mind as per independence.

    Mon the Cabbage!!!

  23. #22
    @hibs.net private member snooky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by grunt View Post
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    Iceland, population 337,000. Own currency.
    Aye, and they jailed the bankers who crashed their economy, IIRC.
    It's a pity we didn't.
    i.e. Freddie & his Dreamers.

  24. #23
    @hibs.net private member johnbc70's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by snooky View Post
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    Aye, and they jailed the bankers who crashed their economy, IIRC.
    It's a pity we didn't.
    i.e. Freddie & his Dreamers.
    The SNP paper is written by ex RBS banker is it not?

  25. #24
    I would definitely be in favour of a separate currency upon independence, vital to have full monetary control.

    It was a major weak spot during the first referendum.

    Happy to see also that finally some work is being done on the economic case after years of hearing that it should be done but no action being taken.

  26. #25
    @hibs.net private member johnbc70's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stranraer View Post
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    Looking forward to it's release. My paper today says there will be a £4100 "boost" for every Scot so onwards to indy!
    Last time it was £600 per person, now it's £4,100. That's quite a jump in just a few years!

  27. #26
    Coaching Staff One Day Soon's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lord bunberry View Post
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    What it does show is that the second referendum isnít far away.

    In fact I think it shows exactly the opposite.

    And if the SNP are wise they'll use this as a starting point for a lengthy discussion on how to deliver growth in the Scottish economy in a way that transforms the nature of any future debate on independence. In the short and medium term there's no pain-free currency option and neither is there an answer on filling Scotland's structural deficit - growth is what is needed to resolve that equation, which is exactly why Andrew Wilson was asked to look at the growth challenge as the centre piece of this report.

    If you stick with the pound the rUK controls your currency - including mortgage rates, inflation levels and money supply.
    If you leave the UK you're out of Europe so no Euro. To join it you need to accept the Euro and meet its preconditions. If you succeed then the EU controls your currency - including again mortgage rates, inflation levels and money supply.
    If you set up a Scottish currency - the groat or whatever - you need a huge mass of reserves so that currency speculators can't basically torch the value of your currency overnight when they decide there's a killing to be made. Those reserves can only come from an economy that is strong, has high growth rates and a public account that is properly balanced.

    So, growth is the thing. Curiously being able to deliver growth is also what unionists require because if you can deliver that now you can make the case for the Union delivering for the Scottish economy within the current constitutional settlement.

    I would ague that there has been no real economic policy for Scotland since the beginning of devolution from any party. In fact most politicians in the Parliament will struggle to engage with this.

  28. #27
    Testimonial Due Colr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stranraer View Post
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    Looking forward to it's release. My paper today says there will be a £4100 "boost" for every Scot so onwards to indy!
    Iím confused! Is it a growth strategy or a manifesto for independence?

  29. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    Last time it was £600 per person, now it's £4,100. That's quite a jump in just a few years!
    I explained what the £4100 means above (in short, f all).

  30. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by One Day Soon View Post
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    In fact I think it shows exactly the opposite.

    And if the SNP are wise they'll use this as a starting point for a lengthy discussion on how to deliver growth in the Scottish economy in a way that transforms the nature of any future debate on independence. In the short and medium term there's no pain-free currency option and neither is there an answer on filling Scotland's structural deficit - growth is what is needed to resolve that equation, which is exactly why Andrew Wilson was asked to look at the growth challenge as the centre piece of this report.

    If you stick with the pound the rUK controls your currency - including mortgage rates, inflation levels and money supply.
    If you leave the UK you're out of Europe so no Euro. To join it you need to accept the Euro and meet its preconditions. If you succeed then the EU controls your currency - including again mortgage rates, inflation levels and money supply.
    If you set up a Scottish currency - the groat or whatever - you need a huge mass of reserves so that currency speculators can't basically torch the value of your currency overnight when they decide there's a killing to be made. Those reserves can only come from an economy that is strong, has high growth rates and a public account that is properly balanced.

    So, growth is the thing. Curiously being able to deliver growth is also what unionists require because if you can deliver that now you can make the case for the Union delivering for the Scottish economy within the current constitutional settlement.

    I would ague that there has been no real economic policy for Scotland since the beginning of devolution from any party. In fact most politicians in the Parliament will struggle to engage with this.
    I agree with most of this except that I think unionismís strategy has been entirely based on fostering a culture of dependency and I canít see many (any?) of its key players keen to change that.

    Also while I would prefer a patient strategy, the indy majority at holyrood might not be around much longer.
    Last edited by JeMeSouviens; 24-05-2018 at 10:44 PM.

  31. #30
    @hibs.net private member johnbc70's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens View Post
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    I explained what the £4100 means above (in short, f all).
    So I wonder why it is being used as the focal point and stand out item of the report then?

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