Hibs' traditional 2nd half of season slump

[Diclonius]

As we recall from a few years ago, in our "top six" seasons (i.e. seasons where we performed well) we've always started exceptionally well and then spectacularly ran out of steam near the end. I decided to test this theory out by comparing the first and last nineteen fixtures of all our last 10 Premiership seasons:

2013-14: 1.26 / 0.58 (11th)
2012-13: 1.47 / 1.21 (7th)
2011-12: 0.74 / 1.00 (11th)
2010-11: 0.84 / 1.11 (10th)
2009-10: 1.74 / 1.11 (4th)
2008-09: 1.37 / 1.11 (6th)
2007-08: 1.47 / 1.26 (6th)
2006-07: 1.37 / 1.21 (6th)
2005-06: 1.95 / 1.00 (4th)
2004-05: 1.74 / 1.47 (3rd)

As you'll see, in almost every season we had a lower average number of points in the last 19 fixtures, bar some bottom 3 seasons when we were fighting relegation. Every single top six finish has resulted in a lower points tally in the second half of the season - most barring 04-05 are comparable to bottom six tallies.

I feel a real test of Lennon's capability as manager is if he was to buck this trend. We're almost certain to finish top six this season, so if he improves on our tally and takes us into/maintains a European spot (Scottish Cup winner permitting) I think he'll have done exceptionally well. This is another mentality problem we've had for years. So far, our averages are:

2017-18: 1.58 / 2.00

That's an exceptional tally - our first half points tally is the highest since 09-10 and after nine games in the second half we have averaged 2 points per game - and this is after playing every other team in the top six. We still have to play all of them again (and Hearts probably twice) but barring a massive slump we're looking on course to do very well.

[Pedantic_Hibee]

Great stats. Lennon undoubtedly the catalyst.

[Leith Green]

Worth remembering that in the seasons we finished top 6 our final 5 matches are against other teams in the top six. That on paper means that 27 per cent more of the last 19 games are played against top six sides as opposed to finishing bottom 6 and playing more games against poorer opposition.Quite a significant difference to take into account when comparing half seasons

[Is It On....]

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Worth remembering that in the seasons we finished top 6 our final 5 matches are against other teams in the top six. That on paper means that 27 per cent more of the last 19 games are played against top six sides as opposed to finishing bottom 6 and playing more games against poorer opposition.Quite a significant difference to take into account when comparing half seasons

Makes you realise even more just how awful The Butcher stats are as his last 5 games are bottom 6 😪

[jacomo]

The run we’ve just been on has been exceptional, Scottish Cup tie excepted (and that was a tight game).

Given the number of points we dropped early in the season, I hoped this would be a traditional Hibs campaign in reverse. So far, so good.

[gillythehibby]

It's been cancelled this season 👍🇳🇬

[IGRIGI]

I remember the season under Mowbray when we finished 3rd we went into the split with a 5 point cushion over the sheepcand got 3rd by a goal.

Under Lennon given our performances against the other big teams I'm confident we'll finish above them come the end of the season.

[Joe6-2]

We haven’t had Neil Lennon before!

[hhibs]

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We haven’t had Neil Lennon before!

Indeed,lets see if he can continue and break the mold.

The second half season slump is an old ,very bad habit which will be great to see ripped up .

[heretoday]

Keep going and finish with a flourish.
It applies to football too.

[highland hibbee]

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Indeed,lets see if he can continue and break the mold.

The second half season slump is an old ,very bad habit which will be great to see ripped up .

From my memory of supporting Hibs, which is over 50 years, this has always been our way. Probably part of the reason our Scottish Cup history is so appalling.

[hibbyfraelibby]

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From my memory of supporting Hibs, which is over 50 years, this has always been our way. Probably part of the reason our Scottish Cup history is so appalling.

...WAS so appaling

[1van Sprou7e]

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As we recall from a few years ago, in our "top six" seasons (i.e. seasons where we performed well) we've always started exceptionally well and then spectacularly ran out of steam near the end. I decided to test this theory out by comparing the first and last nineteen fixtures of all our last 10 Premiership seasons:

2013-14: 1.26 / 0.58 (11th)
2012-13: 1.47 / 1.21 (7th)
2011-12: 0.74 / 1.00 (11th)
2010-11: 0.84 / 1.11 (10th)
2009-10: 1.74 / 1.11 (4th)
2008-09: 1.37 / 1.11 (6th)
2007-08: 1.47 / 1.26 (6th)
2006-07: 1.37 / 1.21 (6th)
2005-06: 1.95 / 1.00 (4th)
2004-05: 1.74 / 1.47 (3rd)

As you'll see, in almost every season we had a lower average number of points in the last 19 fixtures, bar some bottom 3 seasons when we were fighting relegation. Every single top six finish has resulted in a lower points tally in the second half of the season - most barring 04-05 are comparable to bottom six tallies.

I feel a real test of Lennon's capability as manager is if he was to buck this trend. We're almost certain to finish top six this season, so if he improves on our tally and takes us into/maintains a European spot (Scottish Cup winner permitting) I think he'll have done exceptionally well. This is another mentality problem we've had for years. So far, our averages are:

2017-18: 1.58 / 2.00

That's an exceptional tally - our first half points tally is the highest since 09-10 and after nine games in the second half we have averaged 2 points per game - and this is after playing every other team in the top six. We still have to play all of them again (and Hearts probably twice) but barring a massive slump we're looking on course to do very well.

4 tough games coming up but our average since the turn of the year is now 2.25

Truly incredible firm we have been in this year

[jacomo]

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...WAS so appaling

Our overall record in the Scottish Cup is still poor.

Three wins in our entire history.

[Wakeyhibee]

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As we recall from a few years ago, in our "top six" seasons (i.e. seasons where we performed well) we've always started exceptionally well and then spectacularly ran out of steam near the end. I decided to test this theory out by comparing the first and last nineteen fixtures of all our last 10 Premiership seasons:

2013-14: 1.26 / 0.58 (11th)
2012-13: 1.47 / 1.21 (7th)
2011-12: 0.74 / 1.00 (11th)
2010-11: 0.84 / 1.11 (10th)
2009-10: 1.74 / 1.11 (4th)
2008-09: 1.37 / 1.11 (6th)
2007-08: 1.47 / 1.26 (6th)
2006-07: 1.37 / 1.21 (6th)
2005-06: 1.95 / 1.00 (4th)
2004-05: 1.74 / 1.47 (3rd)

As you'll see, in almost every season we had a lower average number of points in the last 19 fixtures, bar some bottom 3 seasons when we were fighting relegation. Every single top six finish has resulted in a lower points tally in the second half of the season - most barring 04-05 are comparable to bottom six tallies.

I feel a real test of Lennon's capability as manager is if he was to buck this trend. We're almost certain to finish top six this season, so if he improves on our tally and takes us into/maintains a European spot (Scottish Cup winner permitting) I think he'll have done exceptionally well. This is another mentality problem we've had for years. So far, our averages are:

2017-18: 1.58 / 2.00

That's an exceptional tally - our first half points tally is the highest since 09-10 and after nine games in the second half we have averaged 2 points per game - and this is after playing every other team in the top six. We still have to play all of them again (and Hearts probably twice) but barring a massive slump we're looking on course to do very well.

I always used to put it down to strength in depth. Even with a decent 1st 11. Once suspensions and injuries take their toll it reflected in the results. Not only have we had a decent first 11 this time out we have players on the bench how can step up to the mark as well. We've also replaced our strike force completely without any bedding in issues, so NL and his recruitment team take a lot of credit.
It's been a very good season

[007]

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Our overall record in the Scottish Cup is still poor.

Three wins in our entire history.

We will improve it by winning it again next season. We were the last team other than Celtic to win a trophy and we will also be the team to end their run of trophy wins.

[Pagan Hibernia]

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We will improve it by winning it again next season. We were the last team other than Celtic to win a trophy and we will also be the team to end their run of trophy wins.

I have a feeling Motherwell could do it this season. Just to spite us

[Borderhibbie76]

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I have a feeling Motherwell could do it this season. Just to spite us

Honestly cannot See it

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[Smartie]

I remember speaking to a taxi driver years ago, who was of the opinion that once we got the Scottish Cup monkey off our back then as a club we'd shift up a level, but until then we'd continue to struggle.

To be fair to him, thats how it feels. We've had all these hang-ups before - Hibsing it, the second half of the season collapse, the poor derby record etc etc.

It does feel like we've got a new lease of life and that we've banished a few demons along the way.

[Famous Fiver]

Crops driving the taxi, by any chance?

And we are watching the other lot Heartsing it.

Pleasing.

[jgl07]

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Our overall record in the Scottish Cup is still poor.

Three wins in our entire history.

It's been bloody good for the last few years. Three finals and five semi-finals in seven (?) seasons. Especially as three of those season were when in the Championship.