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  1. #1

    Cheltenham Festival 2018

    Right I appreciate there is a separate ongoing thread for racing but the Fez deserves it own thread as racingís biggest week.

    Iíll get us started and I really fancy Native River for the Gold Cup. Might Bite is rightly favourite however I feel this whole campaign has been geared around the GC for Native River. He had a hard season last year in the Hennessy, Welsh National and the Denman Chase beforehand cheltenham and I feel Tizzard is trying to prep him just perfectly.

    Other one I particularity like is Didtheyleaveyououttoo in the bumper. 2 lovely wins so far and looks special.


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  3. #2
    Waiting Patiently showing his Festival credentials beating an established Grade 1 field at Kempton comfortably. 5 from 5 over fences now and price cut for both the Queen Mother and the Ryanair.
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  4. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by Pretty Boy View Post
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    Waiting Patiently showing his Festival credentials beating an established Grade 1 field at Kempton comfortably. 5 from 5 over fences now and price cut for both the Queen Mother and the Ryanair.
    I was just about to comment on this, you got in before me. That was a really impressive performance by Waiting Patiently against good opposition. I'm quite tempted to back him at Cheltenham, depending on what race he runs in. Very impressive.

  5. #4
    I was also very impressed with Waiting Patiently who was in my treble. He has form over Politologue whoís been touted for the Queen Mum but would like to see him over the Ryanair Trip.

  6. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by HibernianJK View Post
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    I was also very impressed with Waiting Patiently who was in my treble. He has form over Politologue whoís been touted for the Queen Mum but would like to see him over the Ryanair Trip.
    The problem with the QM is that if Altior shows up the field will fall apart. The lastest stage of entries shows nearly 30 horses left in. I guarantee if Altior is fit then only 5 or 6 will go to post.

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by Pretty Boy View Post
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    The problem with the QM is that if Altior shows up the field will fall apart. The lastest stage of entries shows nearly 30 horses left in. I guarantee if Altior is fit then only 5 or 6 will go to post.
    Completely agree. Nichols has confirmed Politologue will definitely go so at least there will be some level of competition. If you then add Waiting Patiently and Douvan (unlikely) then it could be the race of the Festival. It could go either way.

  8. #7
    There's never a big field for the Champion Chase anyway, the most I can think of in recent times is probably 11 in 2014. Most of these entries will drop out regardless of who the opposition is, but of the major players Douvan is out for the season, Waiting Patiently more than likely will go for the RSA, and Politilogue, just in my opinion, just isn't good enough. It's a pity really, a Douvan at his best has far stronger form that Altior, but to be fair to Altior, you can only beat who's put in front of you, and he's no guarantee to run either. Not a race I'm particularly keen on from a betting perspective unless some other horses such as Yorkhill actually show some better form before the race.

  9. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by ekhibee View Post
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    There's never a big field for the Champion Chase anyway, the most I can think of in recent times is probably 11 in 2014. Most of these entries will drop out regardless of who the opposition is, but of the major players Douvan is out for the season, Waiting Patiently more than likely will go for the RSA, and Politilogue, just in my opinion, just isn't good enough. It's a pity really, a Douvan at his best has far stronger form that Altior, but to be fair to Altior, you can only beat who's put in front of you, and he's no guarantee to run either. Not a race I'm particularly keen on from a betting perspective unless some other horses such as Yorkhill actually show some better form before the race.
    Mullins said recently Douvan could be in line for a surprise appearance at the festival. Unlikely, but not impossible. Waiting Patiently is no longer a novice I donít believe, just missed the tail end of last season with injury. Agree with Politologue. As much as I think heís a lovely horse, heís just not in the top table. Could pick up the scraps if anything goes wrong with the big guns though.

  10. #9
    Un De Sceaux going for the Ryanair hardly suprising but confirmed by Mullins after a lovely run in the Clarence House.

  11. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by HibernianJK View Post
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    Un De Sceaux going for the Ryanair hardly suprising but confirmed by Mullins after a lovely run in the Clarence House.
    Was very impressed with him, he's a good, consistent horse. Still think he should've gone for the Queen Mother though.

  12. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by ekhibee View Post
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    Was very impressed with him, he's a good, consistent horse. Still think he should've gone for the Queen Mother though.
    Iím not sure. You saw what happened the year before on quick round over 2m. Blew up and had nothing left turning for home. Pace too quick.

  13. #12
    I think 2 miles on spring ground is far too quick for UDS. Ryanair seems the sensible choice.
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  14. #13
    The weather is not typically seasonal this year, don't be surprised if it's soft/heavy come March. IMO that would suit Un De Sceaux and Waiting Patiently (whatever race he goes for). Best to wait and see.

  15. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by ekhibee View Post
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    The weather is not typically seasonal this year, don't be surprised if it's soft/heavy come March. IMO that would suit Un De Sceaux and Waiting Patiently (whatever race he goes for). Best to wait and see.
    Donít get me wrong if it comes up soft or heavy he may well he in there. Think Jefferson has confirmed WP for Ryanair. Could be a great race this year.

  16. #15
    Another interesting piece of the Gold Cup jigsaw this weekend with the Cotswold Chase. Last seasons was one of the highlights and also the undoubted lowlight of the entire season. The battle up the hill between Thistlecrack and Many Clouds was steeplechasing at it's very best, what happened moments later was a reminder of what a tough sport this is at times. I've heard last years race described as the 'Gold Cup that never was' and whilst I'm not sure I agree with that it was very sad neither horse lined up in March. Many Clouds was a favourite of mine, to win the Hennessey with 11st 6lbs and the National with 11st 9lbs in the only sub 9 minute time in 15 years were 2 special performances by a horse that was a true warrior.

    This weekend I think it's last chance saloon for Coneygree but I'm not holding ny breath, BDM has to prove Kempton was a blip and he can handle Cheltenham, Tea for Two has a chance to prove his King George place was no fluke, The Last Samarui should like the ground and American has to bounce back from his poor Henessey run.

    For me though the bet is Definitly Red. He won well last time at Aintree in horrible weather and he looks a real stayer. He was 23 lentghs behind BDM at Wethrby but I have a feeling he is a better horse now and this race will play to his strengths. I'm not convined the Gold Cup winner is to be found in this race though.
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  17. #16
    Rain, rain and more rain at Cheltenham. Thinking BDM is increasingly looking like the right bet. Last Samarui may be the danger in the bog.
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  18. #17
    What a ride by Bryony Frost on Frodon.

    She's one of the most talented young jockeys I've seen in years. She's a scary talent.
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  19. #18
    Don't change your mind and trust your gut is the lesson today.
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  20. #19
    Well I reckon the ground is going to play a major part in the Cheltenham Festival and the chances of various horses. Just watching the Cleve Hurdle, won well in the end by Agrapart who loves soft/heavy ground, beating Wholestone who would definitely have preferred better ground, the rest well behind.

  21. #20
    So from what I can gather from interviews after today Frodon will likely go for the Ryanair, Finians Oscar is in limbo, Bristol De Mai might skip Cheltenham and go for the National or the Bowl, Definitly Red will go for the Gold Cup and Blacklions path is as yet undecided but may include Cheltenham and Aintree.
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  22. #21
    Oh and where the hell is Native River?
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  23. #22
    Quote Originally Posted by Pretty Boy View Post
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    Oh and where the hell is Native River?
    Seasonal reappearance in the Denman at Newbury. No injury to worry about. I feel Tizzard keen to keep him fresh for GC after tough campaign last year.

  24. #23
    Samcro fairly hosed up today but the question remains as to what race he runs in at Cheltenham? Betting wise Iíd like to see him go for the Supreme,imagine the bookies if he wins the 1st race,can hear them crying already!!

  25. #24
    Quote Originally Posted by Hibs1972 View Post
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    Samcro fairly hosed up today but the question remains as to what race he runs in at Cheltenham? Betting wise Iíd like to see him go for the Supreme,imagine the bookies if he wins the 1st race,can hear them crying already!!
    Gordon Elliot said post race he might skip Cheltenham altogether and go straight to Punchestown. Can't see it though and think he's just playing games.

    I still think we'll see him in the Ballymore.
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  26. #25
    Quote Originally Posted by Pretty Boy View Post
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    Gordon Elliot said post race he might skip Cheltenham altogether and go straight to Punchestown. Can't see it though and think he's just playing games.

    I still think we'll see him in the Ballymore.
    Cant see it not going,Ballymore the obvious target,bring it on!!

  27. #26
    Edwulf wins the Irish Gold Cup at 33s. Some story given what happened to him at Cheltenham last year when it was doubtful he would ever race again.

    Wonder if he'll take his chance at the Festival?
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  28. #27
    Altior's supposedly running on Saturday in the Game Spirit at Newbury. If he carries on his natural state of progression he should win comfortably, but Fox Norton and Politilogue will keep him honest. Just my opinion obviously, but I don't fancy either of those 2 for the Queen Mother, so Altior should win this, unless he obviously shows signs of needing the race.

  29. #28
    Quote Originally Posted by ekhibee View Post
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    Altior's supposedly running on Saturday in the Game Spirit at Newbury. If he carries on his natural state of progression he should win comfortably, but Fox Norton and Politilogue will keep him honest. Just my opinion obviously, but I don't fancy either of those 2 for the Queen Mother, so Altior should win this, unless he obviously shows signs of needing the race.
    Saw Nicky Hendersons intervie the other day. He said that Altior will lose one day and he's probably the most vulnerable he has been this week.

    For betting purposes I won't be touching him but it could be a decent indicator to see if he is potentially opposable at Cheltenham.
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  30. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by Pretty Boy View Post
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    Saw Nicky Hendersons intervie the other day. He said that Altior will lose one day and he's probably the most vulnerable he has been this week.

    For betting purposes I won't be touching him but it could be a decent indicator to see if he is potentially opposable at Cheltenham.
    The early price of 4/6 certainly does seem a bit short but wouldnít be surprised at all if that drifts slightly and he goes off around even money. Certainly a more backable price.

  31. #30
    Another very promising horse, Fountain's Windfall, died in a training accident suddenly. He was a horse I was watching with great interest and was prominent in the betting for the RSA. RIP. Fox Norton is out of the race at Newbury by the way.
    Last edited by ekhibee; 09-02-2018 at 04:43 PM.

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