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  1. #271
    @hibs.net private member easty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by whiskyhibby View Post
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    I would agree with that, so the likelihood of us drawing away against hearts 3 times on the trot is once in 60543 draws.........
    odds of winning the lottery are higher...but still people win it...who's fixing that? and why?


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  3. #272
    @hibs.net private member Hibbyradge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by whiskyhibby View Post
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    I would agree with that, so the likelihood of us drawing away against hearts 3 times on the trot is once in 60543 draws.........
    Indeed.

    So, if luck was even handed, it won't happen again for another 60542 years.
    Buy nothing online unless you check for free cashback here first. I've already earned £2,389.68!




  4. #274
    @hibs.net private member Jack Hackett's Avatar
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    It's going to be a long 2 months

  5. #275
    Ultimate Slaver Keith_M's Avatar
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    I couldn't believe it when I saw the draw last night.


    How come it always seem to be drawn at Tynecastle?


  6. #276
    @hibs.net private member WhileTheChief..'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by whiskyhibby View Post
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    I would tend to look at the statistics, if the odds are say 3 billion to one then the most obvious answer is its fixed
    31x31x31

  7. #277
    @hibs.net private member CropleyWasGod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hibbyradge View Post
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    There were 63 possible team and venue possibilities this time.

    In last 2, there were 31.

    Therefore, the chance calculation is 63 x31x31 = 60543.

    I think.
    I think it's 62x30x30. 55,800.

    A lot less than 3 billion

  8. #278
    @hibs.net private member danhibees1875's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod View Post
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    I think it's 62x30x30. 55,800.

    A lot less than 3 billion
    and also what I said in post #243


    Mon the Hibs.

  9. #279
    Testimonial Due Geo_1875's Avatar
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    I'll go for 2x63x2x31x2x31

    484,344/1

    What's the prize for closest?

  10. #280
    @hibs.net private member CropleyWasGod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by danhibees1875 View Post
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    and also what I said in post #243


    ****.. serves me right for not reading the whole thread. Could've saved myself a lot of brain cells....

  11. #281
    @hibs.net private member Hibbyradge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod View Post
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    I think it's 62x30x30. 55,800.

    A lot less than 3 billion
    Yes, it is.

    I realised that after I posted, but forgot to edit.
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  12. #282
    @hibs.net private member Hibbyradge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geo_1875 View Post
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    I'll go for 2x63x2x31x2x31

    484,344/1

    What's the prize for closest?
    What are the 2s in your calculation?

    I'm pretty sure it's 62 30 30.
    Buy nothing online unless you check for free cashback here first. I've already earned £2,389.68!



  13. #283
    Testimonial Due Geo_1875's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hibbyradge View Post
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    What are the 2s in your calculation?

    I'm pretty sure it's 62 30 30.
    Hertz have to be drawn at home each year which is a 50/50.

    Then Hibs have to be drawn which is 61/1 or 31/1.

  14. #284
    Left by mutual consent! Peevemor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hibbyradge View Post
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    What are the 2s in your calculation?

    I'm pretty sure it's 62 30 30.
    Home or away I'd imagine.

    Dontcha just love a probability debate?

  15. #285
    50/50

    Either happens or it doesn't

  16. #286
    Quote Originally Posted by renato View Post
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    Fixed that for you
    FIX!!!!!!!!

  17. #287
    Testimonial Due Geo_1875's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MWHIBBIES View Post
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    50/50

    Either happens or it doesn't
    Still doubles your stake if your gambling.

  18. #288
    @hibs.net private member SRHibs's Avatar
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    Should each draw not just be looked at independently? Either way, it’s just a coincidence. The chance of a coin-flip being heads is always (just under) 50/50, regardless of how many heads have come prior.


  19. #289
    Testimonial Due SanFranHibs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by matty_f View Post
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    Great tie. It's just a shame it couldn't be played at a bigger venue.
    I call their stadium the 'Minimum Wage' stadium. Doesn't get 20k.

  20. #290
    Left by mutual consent! Peevemor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SRH View Post
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    Should each draw not just be looked at independently? Either way, it’s just a coincidence. The chance of a coin-flip being heads is always (just under) 50/50, regardless of how many heads have come prior.
    In isolation yes, but the probability of 3 heads in a row is much less than 50/50.

  21. #291
    @hibs.net private member danhibees1875's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geo_1875 View Post
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    Hertz have to be drawn at home each year which is a 50/50.

    Then Hibs have to be drawn which is 61/1 or 31/1.
    These weren't draws with 62 and 32 teams though, it was 32 and 16 - those numbers have already had the 2 multiplier.

    2*31*2*15*2*15 = 55800

    Either way, it's unlikely but it happened and it wasn't a fix (probably).
    Mon the Hibs.

  22. #292
    @hibs.net private member CropleyWasGod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Geo_1875 View Post
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    Hertz have to be drawn at home each year which is a 50/50.

    Then Hibs have to be drawn which is 61/1 or 31/1.
    Nahhh.....

    In a 64 team round, we can have either ( one of 31) teams at home, or (one of 31) teams away. So, drawing Hearts away is a 1 in 62 chance.

    In a 32 team round, it's 1 in 30.
    Last edited by CropleyWasGod; 21-11-2017 at 01:46 PM.

  23. #293
    @hibs.net private member CropleyWasGod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peevemor View Post
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    In isolation yes, but the probability of 3 heads in a row is much less than 50/50.
    2x2x2

  24. #294
    @hibs.net private member SRHibs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peevemor View Post
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    In isolation yes, but the probability of 3 heads in a row is much less than 50/50.
    But is it not correct to look at them in isolation - after the fact anyway? I’ve seen black spin in 13+ times in a row on a roulette table. Happens.


  25. #295
    @hibs.net private member Hibbyradge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod View Post
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    Nahhh.....

    In a 64 team round, we can have either ( one of 31) teams at home, or (one of 31) teams away. So, drawing Hearts away is a 1 in 62 chance.

    In a 32 team round, it's 1 in 30.
    You're correct except your 64 should read 32.
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  26. #296
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    The practice draw last year also drew Hibs vs Hearts but at Easter Road (I think).

  27. #297
    @hibs.net private member Hibbyradge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SRH View Post
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    But is it not correct to look at them in isolation - after the fact anyway? I’ve seen black spin in 13+ times in a row on a roulette table. Happens.
    How often do you see the same number in a row? Now and again, but not often.

    And in the SC draw, there were 62, 31, and 31 possibilities.
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  28. #298
    Left by mutual consent! Peevemor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SRH View Post
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    But is it not correct to look at them in isolation - after the fact anyway? I’ve seen black spin in 13+ times in a row on a roulette table. Happens.
    What purpose does probability serve after the fact?

    You're right in saying that, for any given coin toss, what's gone before is irrelevant (or almost, because 10 heads in a row would suggest a quirky coin), but speculation on the probability of future events has to study the events as a whole and not individually.

  29. #299
    Quote Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod View Post
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    I think it's 62x30x30. 55,800.

    A lot less than 3 billion
    This indeed is the correct answer - one in 55 800.

    Working out is:-

    (1/2) x (1/15) x (1/2) x (1/15) x (1/31) = 1 / 55 800

    The half is required to set the home team each year and the '1 in 15' etc is the probability of the away team being picked.

    The general formula is:-

    (1/2)^k × (1/(n1 - 1)) x (1/(n2 -1)) x (1/n3 -1)) x ..... x (1/(nk-1))

    where k is the number of years and n1, n2, n3 ..., nk is the number of teams left in at each round in a given year.

    Who said mathematics / statistics was boring.






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  30. #300
    First Team Breakthrough
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    I need a lie down after this one.

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