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  1. #1

    State of play in Scotland

    Prof Curtice on recent polling:

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/p...n-misdiagnosed

    The TL;DR - drop in SNP support has been mainly due to defecting anti-EU Leave voters, but SNP support has firmed a bit since June to around 40%, still way ahead in Holyrood VI, Lab and Tory neck and neck in the mid 20s. And support for Indy pretty static at around the level of Indyref1.


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    @hibs.net private member Sylar's Avatar
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    I don't doubt a large portion of those leaving the party was due to the anti-EU stance, but anecdotally, I know plenty of people who abandoned their support for them in the last election because they didn't want to face a second Independence referendum (even though it isn't, of course, a Westminster issue).

    I would wager that right now, were a second referendum to be held tomorrow, it would fail by an even bigger margin than 2014. However, depending how the shambles that is Brexit turns out, support may jump over the next few years. I think Sturgeon has been shrewd putting it off until later, as most people are watching the Conservatives flounder horribly, to the point where we're staring down a 'no deal' scenario, with no scope for voters to get a follow-up 2nd EU referendum on that basis. As that reality unfolds, I think more people may sway toward a Yes, but I still think it'll take something cataclysmic to get over the finish line.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sylar View Post
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    I don't doubt a large portion of those leaving the party was due to the anti-EU stance, but anecdotally, I know plenty of people who abandoned their support for them in the last election because they didn't want to face a second Independence referendum (even though it isn't, of course, a Westminster issue).

    I would wager that right now, were a second referendum to be held tomorrow, it would fail by an even bigger margin than 2014. However, depending how the shambles that is Brexit turns out, support may jump over the next few years. I think Sturgeon has been shrewd putting it off until later, as most people are watching the Conservatives flounder horribly, to the point where we're staring down a 'no deal' scenario, with no scope for voters to get a follow-up 2nd EU referendum on that basis. As that reality unfolds, I think more people may sway toward a Yes, but I still think it'll take something cataclysmic to get over the finish line.
    Thats pretty much how i see it.

    If Brexit is as big a disaster as it could be, then we have indy as a fall back option.

    I disagree that sturgeon was shrewd, anything but because she was dead-set on plowing on with a new ref.

    I agree its worked out well though. Its one reason i never understood the rush for a second ref so soon after the first.

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    I disagree, if Brexit is a disaster I think people will be even more cautious of splitting further apart.

    In the event of a successful yes vote we'd still have to negotiate out of the UK, apply to join the EU, see the terms of that and have another referendum. This would take years. I can't see any of this happening anytime soon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lucky View Post
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    I disagree, if Brexit is a disaster I think people will be even more cautious of splitting further apart.

    In the event of a successful yes vote we'd still have to negotiate out of the UK, apply to join the EU, see the terms of that and have another referendum. This would take years. I can't see any of this happening anytime soon.
    I suppose in that case its all about degree of badness.

    If brexit is a disaster, the uncertainty and upheaval of indy, with the sunlit uplands of re-entry to the eu as an end point might just seem more appealing and less risky.

    However is brexit is bad but not disastrous, a likely scenario imo, then the appeal of indy might still be a bridge too far.

    Im glad we have the option, but my gut instinct is that brexit wont be a disaster.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    I suppose in that case its all about degree of badness.

    If brexit is a disaster, the uncertainty and upheaval of indy, with the sunlit uplands of re-entry to the eu as an end point might just seem more appealing and less risky.

    However is brexit is bad but not disastrous, a likely scenario imo, then the appeal of indy might still be a bridge too far.

    Im glad we have the option, but my gut instinct is that brexit wont be a disaster.
    I think Brexit will be a bit of a slow motion car crash unless we can somehow park ourselves in a long term "transition" similar to waiting for Gordon Brown's famous 5 tests for Euro convergence. I hope that happens because whatever the short term boost or not for independence, a real Brexit disaster could lump us (and the rest of the UK regardless of how we are politically attached to them) right in the ***** for decades.

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    Coaching Staff Smartie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    I suppose in that case its all about degree of badness.

    If brexit is a disaster, the uncertainty and upheaval of indy, with the sunlit uplands of re-entry to the eu as an end point might just seem more appealing and less risky.

    However is brexit is bad but not disastrous, a likely scenario imo, then the appeal of indy might still be a bridge too far.

    Im glad we have the option, but my gut instinct is that brexit wont be a disaster.
    My gut instinct is that overall it will be pretty bad, but ultimately it will be far worse for some than others.

    I strongly suspect it will be worst for those who voted for it.

    The globalist, capitalist liberal elites will adapt, evolve and find the opportunity.

    The poor in their hick towns will struggle to live off the ever more limited scraps that are chucked their way and will have to find someone else to blame.

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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    Thats pretty much how i see it.

    If Brexit is as big a disaster as it could be, then we have indy as a fall back option.

    I disagree that sturgeon was shrewd, anything but because she was dead-set on plowing on with a new ref.

    I agree its worked out well though. Its one reason i never understood the rush for a second ref so soon after the first.
    100%.
    Choose the battles you know you will win. At this time, I'm sure there are many folk from both sides of the argument who are sick to death of referendums and the upset they cause. Whether the next independence vote is a yes or no, I sincerely home the winner gets at least 70% of the poll so there's no split in the nation. The last one has torn the country apart to some degree. Not a good thing for any side.
    The same is happening with Brexit. Whether we stay in or come out, half the country is going to feel aggrieved.

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    Quote Originally Posted by snooky View Post
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    100%.
    Choose the battles you know you will win. At this time, I'm sure there are many folk from both sides of the argument who are sick to death of referendums and the upset they cause. Whether the next independence vote is a yes or no, I sincerely home the winner gets at least 70% of the poll so there's no split in the nation. The last one has torn the country apart to some degree. Not a good thing for any side.
    The same is happening with Brexit. Whether we stay in or come out, half the country is going to feel aggrieved.
    Agree. The best outcome would be either a brexit that is fine, with a clear message from the people that we dont want another indyref or

    A situation where the majority of us come towards indy - rather than it being 'won' via campaigning and all that entails (previous indy, brexit divisions, spurious or just wrong campaign claims etc), it would be great that if it happened, its because a strong consensus emerged, amd not a 50+1 scenario (either way).

    Maybe im being too optimistic on that though.

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    Testimonial Due Colr's Avatar
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    If there was an election tomorrow, the most likely outcome would be a Labour/SNP government.

    Has there been any discussion on what the SNP would do in government?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Colr View Post
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    If there was an election tomorrow, the most likely outcome would be a Labour/SNP government.

    Has there been any discussion on what the SNP would do in government?
    Blame everything on Lond...oh, wait.

    Blame everything on Brusse...oh, wait.

    **** knows.

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    I think a lot of people will realise indy is inevitable when May and the Tories bring this country to its knees after Brexit.


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    Quote Originally Posted by RamYer1902 View Post
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    I think a lot of people will realise indy is inevitable when May and the Tories bring this country to its knees after Brexit.


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    Saying Brexit will bring the country to its knees is as ridiculous as saying Scotland would not have survived independence.
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    Testimonial Due Colr's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RamYer1902 View Post
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    I think a lot of people will realise indy is inevitable when May and the Tories bring this country to its knees after Brexit.


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    Given the scenario I suggested about, Labourís evolving position is to scrap the House of Lords and replace it with a UK parliament with 4 federal country parliaments beneath it. That could give the SNP independence lite.

    If it was to work, I think we would need to move beyond 2 party politics and first past the post TBH. If Brexit splits the Tories that might happen.

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    Quote Originally Posted by marinello59 View Post
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    Saying Brexit will bring the country to its knees is as ridiculous as saying Scotland would not have survived independence.
    Think it's still safe to say the tories will regardless

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    Quote Originally Posted by RamYer1902 View Post
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    I think a lot of people will realise indy is inevitable when May and the Tories bring this country to its knees after Brexit.


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    Quote Originally Posted by marinello59 View Post
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    Saying Brexit will bring the country to its knees is as ridiculous as saying Scotland would not have survived independence.
    That's not exactly what he said - Brexit starting it, then being finished off by May and the Tories was what was suggested would bring the country to its knees.

    I think it's probably a bit over-dramatic but I don't totally disagree.

    Brexit is only going to make things harder for any PM - May herself knows this, and fought against it at the time. She is a weak leader and will struggle to deal with the economic problems Brexit will create (as would any leader, of any party btw) but as she is leading (badly imo) a deeply divided party, she will continue to struggle. As a Tory, the response will be austerity and further misery, taking the country to a far worse place (if not bringing it to its knees).

    Brexit will be partly to blame, May and her ill-judged election which gave her no mandate to do anything will be partly to blame, the usual Tory reponse to trouble will be partly to blame.

    Not all Brexit.


    And as mentioned, that would be the clever time for the SNP to bring Independence back to the table. They have played a pretty clever game for a few years but have lost the plot over the past 12 months and undone a lot of their previous good work. They have been too impatient re Indyref2, they misjudged the public mood and depth of feeling in Scotland re Brexit, and have only damaged themselves by pushing too soon. I think that this mistake is mainly driven by the egos of Salmond and Sturgeon - there is a selfish personal desire to be the person who delivered Scottish Independence and to be revered as some sort of William Wallace figure, whereas if they showed a bit of patience I am convinced they would see it happen in their lifetime, having played a major part in the early stages of making it happen.
    Last edited by Smartie; 15-11-2017 at 02:29 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Colr View Post
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    Given the scenario I suggested about, Labourís evolving position is to scrap the House of Lords and replace it with a UK parliament with 4 federal country parliaments beneath it. That could give the SNP independence lite.

    If it was to work, I think we would need to move beyond 2 party politics and first past the post TBH. If Brexit splits the Tories that might happen.
    As someone who voted Yes, and would again if asked to vote tomorrow.... What you've said above is still my ideal position. I'd also leave Westminster to be the English Parliament and would like to see a UK Parliament based somewhere like Birmingham or similar.



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    Quote Originally Posted by lucky View Post
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    I disagree, if Brexit is a disaster I think people will be even more cautious of splitting further apart.

    In the event of a successful yes vote we'd still have to negotiate out of the UK, apply to join the EU, see the terms of that and have another referendum. This would take years. I can't see any of this happening anytime soon.
    I donít agree. People wouldnít have to see much of a reduction in living standards to want to look for a way out.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lord bunberry View Post
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    I donít agree. People wouldnít have to see much of a reduction in living standards to want to look for a way out.
    The last referendum was at the height of austerity, yet was not enough to persuade people to vote yes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    The last referendum was at the height of austerity, yet was not enough to persuade people to vote yes.
    In part, a huge part, due to a massive amount of disinformation from the government, media and business world.

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    Quote Originally Posted by -Jonesy- View Post
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    In part, a huge part, due to a massive amount of disinformation from the government, media and business world.
    It wasn't a fair fight. The dice were definitely loaded.

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    Quote Originally Posted by -Jonesy- View Post
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    In part, a huge part, due to a massive amount of disinformation from the government, media and business world.
    And before people employing arguments against independence then used a contrary position to support brexit.

    These people are mostly the English establishment and their lickspittle acolytes who donít want to be told what to do by the EU but have no problem telling Scots what they should and shouldnít accept.

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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    The last referendum was at the height of austerity, yet was not enough to persuade people to vote yes.
    tbh, I think we'd have more luck getting a Yes vote in better economic times. People who perceive themselves with "nothing to lose" might vote Yes in bad times but it's the big middle ground with jobs, mortgages, families to support etc that need to be reassured they won't take a big personal hit and that any smaller short term hit they take will be worth it in the long run.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Colr View Post
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    Given the scenario I suggested about, Labourís evolving position is to scrap the House of Lords and replace it with a UK parliament with 4 federal country parliaments beneath it. That could give the SNP independence lite.

    If it was to work, I think we would need to move beyond 2 party politics and first past the post TBH. If Brexit splits the Tories that might happen.
    "evolving" being a very appropriate verb in that it will doubtless take them billions of years to agree to anything like a realistic proposition.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Colr View Post
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    And before people employing arguments against independence then used a contrary position to support brexit.

    These people are mostly the English establishment and their lickspittle acolytes who donít want to be told what to do by the EU but have no problem telling Scots what they should and shouldnít accept.

    There was also plenty of inversion of arguments the other way in terms of supporting Independence and supporting the continued membership of the EU.

    I do find it odd that people have to put such extreme views on both votes. Personally I find it quite easy to understand why people would want to stay part of the UK but were happy to see the UK leave the EU the two positions are not mutually exclusive.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    There was also plenty of inversion of arguments the other way in terms of supporting Independence and supporting the continued membership of the EU.

    I do find it odd that people have to put such extreme views on both votes. Personally I find it quite easy to understand why people would want to stay part of the UK but were happy to see the UK leave the EU the two positions are not mutually exclusive.


    Part of my argument for Scottish independence is that direct membership of the EU means Scotland doesn't need the "international clout" aspect of being subsumed within the UK. I accept that trading some part of national sovereignty for international cooperation is desirable in the modern world, just not all 100% of it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    The last referendum was at the height of austerity, yet was not enough to persuade people to vote yes.
    I would say that is mainly due to the argument that things would get worse post independence. If things get worse post brexit, lots of people may feel betrayed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lord bunberry View Post
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    I would say that is mainly due to the argument that things would get worse post independence. If things get worse post brexit, lots of people may feel betrayed.
    Well we are already seeing the impact of increased devolution. Higher taxes are already here with more to come. The concept that Indy would lead to even higher taxation as Scotland tried to balance its books doesn't look like it was all Project Fear fiction after all.

    Again it's all down to interpretation ...things getting worse may be palatable if there is evidence that they will subsequently get better. The Indy campaign failed to convince the majority that would be what would happen. People saw the risk / reward trade off and simply didn't fancy it...and who can blame them for that?

    Oh and I know a lot of people still blame a biased media etc etc but really I think (anecdotal, personal opinion!) it was more down to the ruinous unpreparedness of Salmond and co. on just what Indy actually meant that resulted in the majority voting No.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    Well we are already seeing the impact of increased devolution. Higher taxes are already here with more to come. The concept that Indy would lead to even higher taxation as Scotland tried to balance its books doesn't look like it was all Project Fear fiction after all.

    Again it's all down to interpretation ...things getting worse may be palatable if there is evidence that they will subsequently get better. The Indy campaign failed to convince the majority that would be what would happen. People saw the risk / reward trade off and simply didn't fancy it...and who can blame them for that?

    Oh and I know a lot of people still blame a biased media etc etc but really I think (anecdotal, personal opinion!) it was more down to the ruinous unpreparedness of Salmond and co. on just what Indy actually meant that resulted in the majority voting No.
    Another fallacy

    Base rate in Scotland is 20% same as England.
    Higher rate in Scotland is 40% same as England
    Additional Rate in Scotland is 45% same as England

    Taxes are no different to other parts of the UK
    #Persevered
    Scotland can be a beacon, within these islands and beyond, for a socially just and sustainable society. Whilst there are many priorities which will require independence, there is also much that can and must be done now by the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government.

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