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  1. #1

    State of play in Scotland

    Prof Curtice on recent polling:

    https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/p...n-misdiagnosed

    The TL;DR - drop in SNP support has been mainly due to defecting anti-EU Leave voters, but SNP support has firmed a bit since June to around 40%, still way ahead in Holyrood VI, Lab and Tory neck and neck in the mid 20s. And support for Indy pretty static at around the level of Indyref1.


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  3. #2
    @hibs.net private member Sylar's Avatar
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    I don't doubt a large portion of those leaving the party was due to the anti-EU stance, but anecdotally, I know plenty of people who abandoned their support for them in the last election because they didn't want to face a second Independence referendum (even though it isn't, of course, a Westminster issue).

    I would wager that right now, were a second referendum to be held tomorrow, it would fail by an even bigger margin than 2014. However, depending how the shambles that is Brexit turns out, support may jump over the next few years. I think Sturgeon has been shrewd putting it off until later, as most people are watching the Conservatives flounder horribly, to the point where we're staring down a 'no deal' scenario, with no scope for voters to get a follow-up 2nd EU referendum on that basis. As that reality unfolds, I think more people may sway toward a Yes, but I still think it'll take something cataclysmic to get over the finish line.
    Okay, technically I'm a serial killer...

  4. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sylar View Post
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    I don't doubt a large portion of those leaving the party was due to the anti-EU stance, but anecdotally, I know plenty of people who abandoned their support for them in the last election because they didn't want to face a second Independence referendum (even though it isn't, of course, a Westminster issue).

    I would wager that right now, were a second referendum to be held tomorrow, it would fail by an even bigger margin than 2014. However, depending how the shambles that is Brexit turns out, support may jump over the next few years. I think Sturgeon has been shrewd putting it off until later, as most people are watching the Conservatives flounder horribly, to the point where we're staring down a 'no deal' scenario, with no scope for voters to get a follow-up 2nd EU referendum on that basis. As that reality unfolds, I think more people may sway toward a Yes, but I still think it'll take something cataclysmic to get over the finish line.
    Thats pretty much how i see it.

    If Brexit is as big a disaster as it could be, then we have indy as a fall back option.

    I disagree that sturgeon was shrewd, anything but because she was dead-set on plowing on with a new ref.

    I agree its worked out well though. Its one reason i never understood the rush for a second ref so soon after the first.

  5. #4
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    I disagree, if Brexit is a disaster I think people will be even more cautious of splitting further apart.

    In the event of a successful yes vote we'd still have to negotiate out of the UK, apply to join the EU, see the terms of that and have another referendum. This would take years. I can't see any of this happening anytime soon.

  6. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by lucky View Post
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    I disagree, if Brexit is a disaster I think people will be even more cautious of splitting further apart.

    In the event of a successful yes vote we'd still have to negotiate out of the UK, apply to join the EU, see the terms of that and have another referendum. This would take years. I can't see any of this happening anytime soon.
    I suppose in that case its all about degree of badness.

    If brexit is a disaster, the uncertainty and upheaval of indy, with the sunlit uplands of re-entry to the eu as an end point might just seem more appealing and less risky.

    However is brexit is bad but not disastrous, a likely scenario imo, then the appeal of indy might still be a bridge too far.

    Im glad we have the option, but my gut instinct is that brexit wont be a disaster.

  7. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    I suppose in that case its all about degree of badness.

    If brexit is a disaster, the uncertainty and upheaval of indy, with the sunlit uplands of re-entry to the eu as an end point might just seem more appealing and less risky.

    However is brexit is bad but not disastrous, a likely scenario imo, then the appeal of indy might still be a bridge too far.

    Im glad we have the option, but my gut instinct is that brexit wont be a disaster.
    I think Brexit will be a bit of a slow motion car crash unless we can somehow park ourselves in a long term "transition" similar to waiting for Gordon Brown's famous 5 tests for Euro convergence. I hope that happens because whatever the short term boost or not for independence, a real Brexit disaster could lump us (and the rest of the UK regardless of how we are politically attached to them) right in the ***** for decades.

  8. #7
    Coaching Staff Smartie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    I suppose in that case its all about degree of badness.

    If brexit is a disaster, the uncertainty and upheaval of indy, with the sunlit uplands of re-entry to the eu as an end point might just seem more appealing and less risky.

    However is brexit is bad but not disastrous, a likely scenario imo, then the appeal of indy might still be a bridge too far.

    Im glad we have the option, but my gut instinct is that brexit wont be a disaster.
    My gut instinct is that overall it will be pretty bad, but ultimately it will be far worse for some than others.

    I strongly suspect it will be worst for those who voted for it.

    The globalist, capitalist liberal elites will adapt, evolve and find the opportunity.

    The poor in their hick towns will struggle to live off the ever more limited scraps that are chucked their way and will have to find someone else to blame.

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