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  1. #31
    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    It's not nonsense...'Support the 45' was literally created the day after.

    It's clear to pretty much any observer that the Scottish referendum result was simply ignored by the nationalists the moment it was announced. It was clearly seen as 'losing a battle and not the war' and their actions and words since have proven that to be the case.

    The same happened in Canada with their Neverendum and I reckon it would happen in Spain as well so I stick by my view that there is little for Spain to gain by validating a vote as even if the vote was No the Catalan separatists will just carry on regardless.
    Québec's 2nd indyref was 14 years after the first! And followed the failure to carry through the negotiated Meech Lake accord. Canada had to seriously wise up after squeaking home the 2nd time and Québec now, while still within the federation, has powers Scotland can only dream of.


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  3. #32
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    Quote Originally Posted by lord bunberry View Post
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    Of course they will carry on regardless, but it doesn't mean that the powers that be will grant another referendum. The situation in Scotland was pretty unique in that one of the biggest tools used by the no campaign turned out to be completely false. If you believe in something, you will continue to campaign for that belief. Had the the EU referendum gone the other way there wouldn't have been plans made for a second vote by the SNP.
    We could argue all night about the why's and wherefores as to how and when Indy2 was first thought of as a target for the SNP. I'm pretty sure it wasn't just the day after Brexit vote and more like the day after the first vote.

    Any how if, as you say, people will continue to campaign regardless (and there can be no doubting here has been a vigorous and pretty consistent campaign since 2014 in Scotland) then where is the value for Spain holding a vote? You can easily imagine them seeing that the Indy vote hear merely emboldened the Separatist movement rather than resolving a long term issue.

    So suggesting that may well have a lot to lose and little to gain could be nonsense but I'm still not agreeing that it is

  4. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens View Post
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    Québec's 2nd indyref was 14 years after the first! And followed the failure to carry through the negotiated Meech Lake accord. Canada had to seriously wise up after squeaking home the 2nd time and Québec now, while still within the federation, has powers Scotland can only dream of.
    Yet still it goes on...

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/nationa...rom-canada/amp

  5. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    Why bother though...experience has shown that even if they did have a referendum and the Indy side lost they will merrily ignore the result and just plan another one.

    Spain has little to gain from a referendum and very much doubt their position will change on that front anytime soon.
    Do you think that those that voted No would have just quietly accepted the result had it gone the other way?

  6. #35
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    In the Scottish context, regardless of which way the vote had gone the losers would always have had a few who'd continue to campaign, Indy 2 however only really became a "thing" after the Brexit vote confirmed the previous promises were hollow.
    In fact if you were really bothered, have a look back at the threads on here and you'll see things began to be mentioned in the lead up to the vote ("what if" etc) and crystallised when it became apparent that many had placed their vote while being misled.
    "The word "genius" isn't applicable in football. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein."
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  7. #36
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    Quote Originally Posted by EH6 Hibby View Post
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    Do you think that those that voted No would have just quietly accepted the result had it gone the other way?
    Pretty much so yeah.

  8. #37
    @hibs.net private member lord bunberry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    We could argue all night about the why's and wherefores as to how and when Indy2 was first thought of as a target for the SNP. I'm pretty sure it wasn't just the day after Brexit vote and more like the day after the first vote.

    Any how if, as you say, people will continue to campaign regardless (and there can be no doubting here has been a vigorous and pretty consistent campaign since 2014 in Scotland) then where is the value for Spain holding a vote? You can easily imagine them seeing that the Indy vote hear merely emboldened the Separatist movement rather than resolving a long term issue.

    So suggesting that may well have a lot to lose and little to gain could be nonsense but I'm still not agreeing that it is
    The main aim of the SNP is independence of course they were planning for a second vote as soon as they lost the first one. It's all about the timing of a second vote. Without brexit a second vote wouldn't be being discussed for a good number of years. Every political party has their own personal beliefs and goals, and they will continue to fight for them regardless of the result of any particular election result or referendum result.
    The difference between a yes/leave vote is that they're virtually impossible to reverse.
    Last edited by lord bunberry; 15-09-2017 at 09:00 PM.

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  9. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by lord bunberry View Post
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    The main aim of the SNP is independence of course they were planning for a second vote as soon as they lost the first one. It's all about the timing of a second vote. Without brexit a second vote wouldn't be being discussed for a good number of years. Every political party has their own personal beliefs and goals, and they will continue to fight for them regardless of the result of any particular election result or referendum result.
    The difference between a yes/leave vote is that they're virtually impossible to reverse.
    Labouring the point now but largely that's what I'm saying...where in the above is there any incentive for the non separatists incumbents to facilitate a vote? It resolves nothing but risks an irreversible decision if the vote goes against them.

    Ergo I can see why Spain are disinclined to validate any referendum.

  10. #39
    @hibs.net private member lord bunberry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    Labouring the point now but largely that's what I'm saying...where in the above is there any incentive for the non separatists incumbents to facilitate a vote? It resolves nothing but risks an irreversible decision if the vote goes against them.

    Ergo I can see why Spain are disinclined to validate any referendum.
    Surely it's democratic to allow the vote. If it's the will of the people, then it should be allowed to happen. We allowed the brexit vote when it was clearly against the national interest, why should an independence vote be any different.

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  11. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by lord bunberry View Post
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    Surely it's democratic to allow the vote. If it's the will of the people, then it should be allowed to happen. We allowed the brexit vote when it was clearly against the national interest, why should an independence vote be any different.
    My point was not a view on how democratic or otherwise the Spanish position was, it was merely a recognition of why their position is what it is.

    But in brief I agree and disagree re the 'will of the people stuff' referendums can be deeply flawed processes. I'm not sure the recent bout of them in the UK have proven their worth in terms of either settling the argument or providing people with an informed choice. They seem to create more division and polarisation than the deliverance of the 'will of the people'

  12. #41
    Latest poll if google translate link works:

    https://translate.googleusercontent....98VArl6gvrf2DQ

    Suggests 51% certain to vote, 60% likely.

    Overall Yes leads 44-38. Of those likely to vote, Yes miles ahead.

    If Yes wins on a 60% turnout then the recognition argument starts to look a lot more hopeful.

  13. #42
    Quote Originally Posted by Killiehibbie View Post
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    That can't be right the Spanish version of project fear have said unemployment will be over 40% within days.
    Scaremongering from the establishment in the run up to an election that could see them lose their little lacky side kick and a huge chunk of revenue each year...wonders will never cease.

  14. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    Why bother though...experience has shown that even if they did have a referendum and the Indy side lost they will merrily ignore the result and just plan another one.

    Spain has little to gain from a referendum and very much doubt their position will change on that front anytime soon.

    Sounds all too familiar doesn't it. rUN stood to gain nothing, so came up with a number big reasons why Scotland would t manage alone.

    Lies and scaremongering have a successful track record so little surprise to see Spain giving it a go.

  15. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    It's not nonsense...'Support the 45' was literally created the day after.

    It's clear to pretty much any observer that the Scottish referendum result was simply ignored by the nationalists the moment it was announced. It was clearly seen as 'losing a battle and not the war' and their actions and words since have proven that to be the case.

    The same happened in Canada with their Neverendum and I reckon it would happen in Spain as well so I stick by my view that there is little for Spain to gain by validating a vote as even if the vote was No the Catalan separatists will just carry on regardless.
    Would you also concede that there was little for rUK to gain and lots for Scotland had their been a successful yes vote bin 14?

  16. #45
    Coaching Staff hibsbollah's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens View Post
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    Latest poll if google translate link works:

    https://translate.googleusercontent....98VArl6gvrf2DQ

    Suggests 51% certain to vote, 60% likely.

    Overall Yes leads 44-38. Of those likely to vote, Yes miles ahead.

    If Yes wins on a 60% turnout then the recognition argument starts to look a lot more hopeful.
    Something very funny going on with the polling. It doesn't fluctuate that much in a week.

  17. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by hibsbollah View Post
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    Something very funny going on with the polling. It doesn't fluctuate that much in a week.

    Polls here, the 41Y-49N one that's been widely reported is 5 weeks old.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catala...017_referendum

  18. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by beensaidbefore View Post
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    Would you also concede that there was little for rUK to gain and lots for Scotland had their been a successful yes vote bin 14?
    Ach I'm not inclined to get into another Indy debate to be honest, I think those arguments have been had / rumble onwards on another thread.

  19. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    It's coming up for 22 years and the PQ has only flirted with the idea. They've never gone out to get a mandate for a 3rd ref. The article you quote has an also ran for their leadership election trying to appeal to the PQ base with talk of a new ref. The other 3 aren't even doing that, indeed 1 has explicitly ruled it out. Can you imagine that happening in the SNP?

  20. #49
    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    Ach I'm not inclined to get into another Indy debate to be honest, I think those arguments have been had / rumble onwards on another thread.
    Fair do's. IL take that as a yes😝

  21. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by beensaidbefore View Post
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    Fair do's. IL take that as a yes
    Take it anyway you want

  22. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens View Post
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    It's coming up for 22 years and the PQ has only flirted with the idea. They've never gone out to get a mandate for a 3rd ref. The article you quote has an also ran for their leadership election trying to appeal to the PQ base with talk of a new ref. The other 3 aren't even doing that, indeed 1 has explicitly ruled it out. Can you imagine that happening in the SNP?
    Maybe it will, maybe it won't I have no idea as I've mis placed my crystal ball!

    The point was that there is still at least some political effort in Canada to revive the concept of another referendum. I totally accept though that it does not currently appear to be the majority view there politically.

  23. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by lord bunberry View Post
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    It's completely un democratic of Spain not to recognise this vote. Politicians are elected to carry out the will of the people. If the Catalans want to have a vote they should be allowed to. Spain should do what the UK did and make the case for remaining a part of Spain.
    The vote will be irrelevant as the no campaign won't take part meaning the result will be illegitimate.
    That's the No campaigns fault.

    IMHO self determination should go to the heart of any vote.

    What we are saying here is because Madrid doesn't want to have a vote where the population of Catelonia decides its future, it can never happen?

    Smacks of "It's my ball and I'm away home" to me.

    Fair play to the Catelonians. They have strong governance, fair elections, well publicised and recognised in their autonomous legislature, then that's good enough for me.

    It's for the people of Catelonia to decide.

    J

  24. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    Interesting one. I knew a ref was in the offing, i didnt know it was now set.

    Hard to know how it will end up, and a bery tricky situation for the EU to potentially manahe, in terms of whether or not to recognise.

    Its not really a fight i personally habe much of an interest in, but as far as i know catalonia is far morw prosperous and wealthy than the rest of spain, so why wouldnt they?

    FC Barcelona could be the real losers thougj - thrown out of the spanish league?
    A Cardiff/Swansea or Berwick Rangers situation perhaps?

    J

  25. #54
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bristolhibby View Post
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    A Cardiff/Swansea or Berwick Rangers situation perhaps?

    J
    Possibly - im sure they will fudge it somehow.

    Would just seem a rad hypocritical of that great icon of catalan nationalism to turn their back on their new country for money.

  26. #55
    @hibs.net private member lord bunberry's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=Bristolhibby;5171743]That's the No campaigns fault.

    IMHO self determination should go to the heart of any vote.

    What we are saying here is because Madrid doesn't want to have a vote where the population of Catelonia decides its future, it can never happen?

    Smacks of "It's my ball and I'm away home" to me.

    Fair play to the Catelonians. They have strong governance, fair elections, well publicised and recognised in their autonomous legislature, then that's good enough for me.

    It's for the people of Catelonia to decide.

    J[/QUOT
    I agree, but we both know that the result will be declared illegitimate by the Spanish government.

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  27. #56
    @hibs.net private member Bristolhibby's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=lord bunberry;5171894]
    Quote Originally Posted by Bristolhibby View Post
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    That's the No campaigns fault.

    IMHO self determination should go to the heart of any vote.

    What we are saying here is because Madrid doesn't want to have a vote where the population of Catelonia decides its future, it can never happen?

    Smacks of "It's my ball and I'm away home" to me.

    Fair play to the Catelonians. They have strong governance, fair elections, well publicised and recognised in their autonomous legislature, then that's good enough for me.

    It's for the people of Catelonia to decide.

    J[/QUOT
    I agree, but we both know that the result will be declared illegitimate by the Spanish government.
    Indeed. They are in a catch 22.

    Hold a referendum and Madrid trashes it.
    Don't hold a referendum and you are still a part of Spain.

    Either way, the Catelonians are being shat on. They have no option but to go unilateral and organise their own referendum, as they will never get any agreement out of Madrid.

    How do you function if you need agreementnof the very entity you are trying to become independent from and they don't want you to even vote on the matter, let alone ever stand on your own two feet.

    J

  28. #57
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bristolhibby View Post
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    What we are saying here is because Madrid doesn't want to have a vote where the population of Catelonia decides its future, it can never happen?
    I think that's exactly what we're saying here. Catalonia is now an existential question for a fading Imperial power like Spain. It should only come as a surprise to those who are naive enough to believe that representational democracy is used as anything other than a fig leaf to disguise state power. They'll only allow part of the whole power game to fall apart if it's in their own interests.

  29. #58
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    We've spent 70 years painstakingly trying to move beyond nation-state identity politics after the slaughter of WWII.

    Now that folk memory of what that looks like is fading it's suddenly a good idea to have secessionist movements, new nation-states and the break up of stable nations.

    I despair. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.

  30. #59
    @hibs.net private member Bristolhibby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by One Day Soon View Post
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    We've spent 70 years painstakingly trying to move beyond nation-state identity politics after the slaughter of WWII.

    Now that folk memory of what that looks like is fading it's suddenly a good idea to have secessionist movements, new nation-states and the break up of stable nations.

    I despair. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
    I’d argue it’s globalisation that’s reduced nationalism. Not some desire not to fight each other.

    Too much money to be risked fighting. At least people who can fight back.

    When the oil and clean water runs out, that’s when the **** will really hit the fan.

  31. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by One Day Soon View Post
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    We've spent 70 years painstakingly trying to move beyond nation-state identity politics after the slaughter of WWII.

    Now that folk memory of what that looks like is fading it's suddenly a good idea to have secessionist movements, new nation-states and the break up of stable nations.

    I despair. Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.
    The majority of the world's self governing nations either formed or became independent after 1945.

    Self determination and secessionist movements did not cause WW1, WW2 and certainly won't be causing WW3.

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