hibs.net Messageboard

Page 4 of 4 FirstFirst ... 234
Results 91 to 120 of 120
  1. #91
    @hibs.net private member Golden Fleece's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    between a brewery & distillery
    Posts
    11,137
    Quote Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    <scooby>

    Who?

    </scooby>
    Cornish National Party.
    #Persevered
    Scotland can be a beacon, within these islands and beyond, for a socially just and sustainable society. Whilst there are many priorities which will require independence, there is also much that can and must be done now by the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government.


  2. Log in to remove the advert

  3. #92
    Opinion polling is quite interesting in that there's a much bigger divergence than usual between polling firms, eg.

    ICM last 4 polls show con leads of 20,14,12,12
    Yougov polls with similar fieldwork dates 13,9,7,3

    All the pollsters show the Tory lead shrinking. The difference is mainly down to adjustments they're making for turnout. Yougov is much more optimistic about how many younger voters will actually turn out. Also ICM are attempting to allocate people who refuse to answer based on research they did on people in 2015 who refused to answer but subsequently told them how they voted.

  4. #93
    Testimonial Due
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Edinburgh
    Age
    36
    Posts
    2,866
    The Economist has today backed the lib dems.

    I thought it was a bit odd, bit after reading excepts in the guardian election section, they make a lot of sense.

  5. #94
    Testimonial Due
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Edinburgh
    Age
    36
    Posts
    2,866
    Quote Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Opinion polling is quite interesting in that there's a much bigger divergence than usual between polling firms, eg.

    ICM last 4 polls show con leads of 20,14,12,12
    Yougov polls with similar fieldwork dates 13,9,7,3

    All the pollsters show the Tory lead shrinking. The difference is mainly down to adjustments they're making for turnout. Yougov is much more optimistic about how many younger voters will actually turn out. Also ICM are attempting to allocate people who refuse to answer based on research they did on people in 2015 who refused to answer but subsequently told them how they voted.
    Im trying not to take too much notice - like you say, there is surely no doubt that the gap has closed, as gaps usually do in campaigns, bit when they start predicting seats etc, its finger in the wind stuff.

    Are there scheduled to be exit polls this time? The BBC's last time was very accurate, i still remember alastair campbell's face!

  6. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Im trying not to take too much notice - like you say, there is surely no doubt that the gap has closed, as gaps usually do in campaigns, bit when they start predicting seats etc, its finger in the wind stuff.

    Are there scheduled to be exit polls this time? The BBC's last time was very accurate, i still remember alastair campbell's face!
    Without polls there would be no sense of a Corbyn surge, May wouldn't be anywhere near as rattled and it all might be playing out very differently.

    It would be fascinating to have an election where opinion polling was banned altogether.

  7. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by Golden Fleece View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Cornish National Party.
    I thought it might be, but you never know, there might've been a Mrs Kernow standing in St Ives?

  8. #97
    Testimonial Due
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    Edinburgh
    Age
    36
    Posts
    2,866
    Quote Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Without polls there would be no sense of a Corbyn surge, May wouldn't be anywhere near as rattled and it all might be playing out very differently.

    It would be fascinating to have an election where opinion polling was banned altogether.
    Youre right, i meant too much notice of their specifics - trends, absolutely.

    Indeed, probably very low turnout for this one given the impression of an inevitable landlside at the outset

  9. #98
    @hibs.net private member snooky's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Down East
    Posts
    9,592
    Quote Originally Posted by Golden Fleece View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Cornish National Party.
    For a moment I thought that read "Cornish National Pasty"

  10. #99
    @hibs.net private member Golden Fleece's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    between a brewery & distillery
    Posts
    11,137
    Quote Originally Posted by snooky View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    For a moment I thought that read "Cornish National Pasty"
    All their members are upper crust
    #Persevered
    Scotland can be a beacon, within these islands and beyond, for a socially just and sustainable society. Whilst there are many priorities which will require independence, there is also much that can and must be done now by the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government.

  11. #100
    @hibs.net private member ronaldo7's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    8,078
    Money must be tight. Unionist parties diverting their cash to target seats.

    https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390070...-in-key-seats/

  12. #101
    ADMIN marinello59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    I still live in hope.
    Posts
    27,731
    Quote Originally Posted by ronaldo7 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Money must be tight. Unionist parties diverting their cash to target seats.

    https://stv.tv/news/politics/1390070...-in-key-seats/
    What's new there then? All political parties including the SNP do exactly the same, they target their resources carefully. The Greens are doing the same thing but on a different scale.
    Every gimmick hungry yob,
    Digging gold from rock and roll
    Grabs the mic to tell us,
    He'll die before he's sold.

  13. #102
    @hibs.net private member ronaldo7's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    8,078
    Quote Originally Posted by marinello59 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    What's new there then? All political parties including the SNP do exactly the same, they target their resources carefully. The Greens are doing the same thing but on a different scale.
    Greens stepping aside for the SNP, and Labour stepping aside for the Tories. Nothing new there.

  14. #103
    ADMIN marinello59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    I still live in hope.
    Posts
    27,731
    Quote Originally Posted by ronaldo7 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Greens stepping aside for the SNP, and Labour stepping aside for the Tories. Nothing new there.
    Except Labour isn't stepping aside for the Tories and the Greens aren't stepping aside for the SNP, both parties have vehemently denied that. I quite liked Dugdale's response to be fair. Targeting resources really is nothing new.
    Every gimmick hungry yob,
    Digging gold from rock and roll
    Grabs the mic to tell us,
    He'll die before he's sold.

  15. #104
    @hibs.net private member
    Join Date
    Jul 2003
    Location
    United Kingdom
    Posts
    10,206
    Quote Originally Posted by ronaldo7 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Greens stepping aside for the SNP, and Labour stepping aside for the Tories. Nothing new there.
    50% correct. There is no in hell Labour would move aside for the Tories. Most Labour see the Tories as the political enemy of the working class. The Nats are a pain but no way would many Labour members/voters choose to bit Tory to beat the SNP. The Nats can't will the election but Labour can

  16. #105
    @hibs.net private member snooky's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2002
    Location
    Down East
    Posts
    9,592
    Quote Originally Posted by lucky View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    50% correct. There is no in hell Labour would move aside for the Tories. Most Labour see the Tories as the political enemy of the working class. The Nats are a pain but no way would many Labour members/voters choose to bit Tory to beat the SNP. The Nats can't will the election but Labour can
    Shouldn't that be "all" or "almost all"? "Most" could mean 51%. Just saying like.

  17. #106
    @hibs.net private member Golden Fleece's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    between a brewery & distillery
    Posts
    11,137
    #Persevered
    Scotland can be a beacon, within these islands and beyond, for a socially just and sustainable society. Whilst there are many priorities which will require independence, there is also much that can and must be done now by the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government.

  18. #107
    New poll out from Ipsos-MORI, Tory lead down to 5.

    Con 45 (-4)
    Lab 40 (+6)

    And that's after turnout weighting, on the raw numbers, Lab were actually +3 ahead!

  19. #108
    Testimonial Due Glory Lurker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Location
    Miles from in the know
    Posts
    2,019
    Labour and Lib Dems going easy in Tory target seats increases chances of Tories winning overall election, instead of splitting anti-SNP vote and keeping them out. Looks pretty clear to me who Lab and Lib Dems prefer
    Last edited by Glory Lurker; 02-06-2017 at 02:12 PM.

  20. #109
    ADMIN marinello59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    I still live in hope.
    Posts
    27,731
    Quote Originally Posted by Glory Lurker View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Labour and Lib Dems going easy in Tory target seats increases chances of Tories winning overall election, instead of splitting anti-SNP vote and keeping them out. Looks pretty clear to me who Lab and Lib Dems prefer
    That's not what is happening, it's a lie. . It will be a convenient excuse if the SNP do lose seats to the Tories though, they can blame the other parties instead of themselves.
    Every gimmick hungry yob,
    Digging gold from rock and roll
    Grabs the mic to tell us,
    He'll die before he's sold.

  21. #110
    Quote Originally Posted by marinello59 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    That's not what is happening, it's a lie. . It will be a convenient excuse if the SNP do lose seats to the Tories though, they can blame the other parties instead of themselves.
    It's being reported that way by STV, quoting Labour sources, hardly a hotbed of nat propaganda?

  22. #111
    ADMIN marinello59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    I still live in hope.
    Posts
    27,731
    Quote Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    It's being reported that way by STV, quoting Labour sources, hardly a hotbed of nat propaganda?
    That's not true either. They quoted an anonymous Conservative source which was convenient. Kezia Dugdale denied it straightaway. I believe her just as I believe Patrick Harvie when he denied that the Greens were giving the SNP a clear run in most seats. As in every other election I can remember it's a question of resources where funds have to be targetted, if there is no chance of winning then the funds will be less than there is available elsewhere. I guess it's easier for some to believe it's true rather than confront the real reasons they may lose some seats but it's nowt to do with any other party but the SNP themselves.
    Every gimmick hungry yob,
    Digging gold from rock and roll
    Grabs the mic to tell us,
    He'll die before he's sold.

  23. #112

  24. #113
    Testimonial Due Glory Lurker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Location
    Miles from in the know
    Posts
    2,019
    Quote Originally Posted by marinello59 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    That's not what is happening, it's a lie. . It will be a convenient excuse if the SNP do lose seats to the Tories though, they can blame the other parties instead of themselves.
    Hmmmm. So labour and the lib dems can only afford to target one or two seats? We're in a unique situation where the largest party has almost all the seats. Losses to labour and Lib Dems don't affect the Tories, but losses to the Tories directly increase their chance of staying in power. If that was a big issue for the lib dems and labour, I'd have thought they would try to stymie Tory gains as well as beat the SNP in a couple or so other seats each.

  25. #114
    ADMIN marinello59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    I still live in hope.
    Posts
    27,731
    Quote Originally Posted by Glory Lurker View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    Hmmmm. So labour and the lib dems can only afford to target one or two seats? We're in a unique situation where the largest party has almost all the seats. Losses to labour and Lib Dems don't affect the Tories, but losses to the Tories directly increase their chance of staying in power. If that was a big issue for the lib dems and labour, I'd have thought they would try to stymie Tory gains as well as beat the SNP in a couple or so other seats each.
    That's quite a spin to put on what I said.
    Whether the SNP hold on to seats or not is entirely in their own hands. The unholy rush to get excuses in early in pretty amusing though.
    I can't see many seats changing hands in Scotland and when the dust has settled the SNP will still have by far the largest number. The share of the vote may be interesting though.
    Every gimmick hungry yob,
    Digging gold from rock and roll
    Grabs the mic to tell us,
    He'll die before he's sold.

  26. #115
    @hibs.net private member GlesgaeHibby's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Edinburgh
    Age
    30
    Posts
    5,735
    Quote Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    New poll out from Ipsos-MORI, Tory lead down to 5.

    Con 45 (-4)
    Lab 40 (+6)

    And that's after turnout weighting, on the raw numbers, Lab were actually +3 ahead!
    You gov also reckon labour are taking Amber Rudd's seat

  27. #116
    ADMIN marinello59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    I still live in hope.
    Posts
    27,731
    Quote Originally Posted by GlesgaeHibby View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    You gov also reckon labour are taking Amber Rudd's seat
    That would be a Portillo moment.
    Every gimmick hungry yob,
    Digging gold from rock and roll
    Grabs the mic to tell us,
    He'll die before he's sold.

  28. #117
    Testimonial Due Glory Lurker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Location
    Miles from in the know
    Posts
    2,019
    Quote Originally Posted by marinello59 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    That's quite a spin to put on what I said.
    Whether the SNP hold on to seats or not is entirely in their own hands. The unholy rush to get excuses in early in pretty amusing though.
    I can't see many seats changing hands in Scotland and when the dust has settled the SNP will still have by far the largest number. The share of the vote may be interesting though.
    You started it with replying to me with comments that didn't relate to what I'd actually said

    Where am I making excuses? I am questioning why they don't seem too fussed about trying to stop the Tories increasing their number of seats. The situation we are looking at has never existed before. Every seat bar one held by the opposition. Seat swaps between the opposition are irrelevant in the big picture. Seats gained by the government are huge, yet only the SNP seem bothered enough to do anything about that.

    If the SNP lose seats, they lose seats. That's life. If an increase in Tory seats in Scotland contributes to them staying in power though, and the rest of the "opposition" effectively lets it happen, that's unforgivable.

  29. #118
    ADMIN marinello59's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    I still live in hope.
    Posts
    27,731
    Quote Originally Posted by Glory Lurker View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    You started it with replying to me with comments that didn't relate to what I'd actually said

    Where am I making excuses? I am questioning why they don't seem too fussed about trying to stop the Tories increasing their number of seats. The situation we are looking at has never existed before. Every seat bar one held by the opposition. Seat swaps between the opposition are irrelevant in the big picture. Seats gained by the government are huge, yet only the SNP seem bothered enough to do anything about that.

    If the SNP lose seats, they lose seats. That's life. If an increase in Tory seats in Scotland contributes to them staying in power though, and the rest of the "opposition" effectively lets it happen, that's unforgivable.
    I#m not saying you are making excuses. Some will refuse to accept that it's totally down to the SNP to retain their seats. Sturgeon has come out to night and siad voters have a clear choice between the SNP and the Tories. If they lose any seats to the Tories it because of their own failures, nobody elses.
    You honestly don't think members of the Labour movement are motivated to beat the Tories especially when there is a slim chance of getting them out of Government? Suggesting that only the SNP are bothered is quite an astonishing claim to make. The reality is the SNP are so dominant making any gains in Scotland for Labour just now is practically impossible.
    Every gimmick hungry yob,
    Digging gold from rock and roll
    Grabs the mic to tell us,
    He'll die before he's sold.

  30. #119
    Testimonial Due Glory Lurker's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2012
    Location
    Miles from in the know
    Posts
    2,019
    Quote Originally Posted by marinello59 View Post
    This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
    I#m not saying you are making excuses. Some will refuse to accept that it's totally down to the SNP to retain their seats. Sturgeon has come out to night and siad voters have a clear choice between the SNP and the Tories. If they lose any seats to the Tories it because of their own failures, nobody elses.
    You honestly don't think members of the Labour movement are motivated to beat the Tories especially when there is a slim chance of getting them out of Government? Suggesting that only the SNP are bothered is quite an astonishing claim to make. The reality is the SNP are so dominant making any gains in Scotland for Labour just now is practically impossible.
    My whole point is that in the seats the Tories are likely to gain, Labour and the Lib Dems seem content to let it happen when I would have thought it would be more in their interests to hold their noses, try a bit, maybe split the anti SNP vote and prevent a Tory +1.

    Anyway, here we are, the opposition bickering among themselves. Theresa May, who I know is a Keichback lurker on here, will be loving it.

  31. #120
    @hibs.net private member ronaldo7's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Posts
    8,078
    I see the PM was visiting Edinburgh today, she was in Granton, surrounded by around 100 invited activists, in a removals warehouse.

    The fear is strong with Theresa. https://t.co/bbEDGJDMbK
    Last edited by ronaldo7; 05-06-2017 at 06:06 PM.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
hibs.net ©2012 All Rights Reserved