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Thread: Indy Ref 2

  1. #2041
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    The National (i know, i know) had a poll on its front page with a majority for indy today.


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  3. #2042
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    The National (i know, i know) had a poll on its front page with a majority for indy today.
    I always assumed that the laddie was not for turning 😁

  4. #2043
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    The National (i know, i know) had a poll on its front page with a majority for indy today.
    You need to read on, even if you were worried you might be seen.

    It's a 3 option poll: indy in eu, indy out of eu or brexit britain. They added the 2 indy options together.

  5. #2044
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeMeSouviens View Post
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    You need to read on, even if you were worried you might be seen.

    It's a 3 option poll: indy in eu, indy out of eu or brexit britain. They added the 2 indy options together.
    Just saw the headline in the shop! Ok, i see, im sure john curtice wouldnt approve!

  6. #2045
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoneyburn hibs View Post
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    I always assumed that the laddie was not for turning 😁
    Eh?

  7. #2046
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    Eh?
    As in : The lady's not for turning, Thatcher.
    I was relating that to you, as possibly turning to SNP with the post I quoted.

  8. #2047
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    Just saw the headline in the shop! Ok, i see, im sure john curtice wouldnt approve!
    Indeed, he would not!

    It's an interesting poll but the headline they put on it is just a tad misleading.

  9. #2048
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoneyburn hibs View Post
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    As in : The lady's not for turning, Thatcher.
    I was relating that to you, as possibly turning to SNP with the post I quoted.
    Sorry i got it after i had posted, bit slow on the uptake this morning!

    Ive voted SNP previously, although given who they have just selected as their Edinburgh South candidate, there is no chance this time!

    I believe Sturgeon is in Leith campaigning today, maybe someone will ask her about police scotland wasting money to catch pitch invaders from a year ago...

  10. #2049
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    These are not my words, but worthy of consideration.


    I'm not sure if the Record have abandoned Survation as their regular pollster, but for whatever reason they've commissioned Google to produce a Scottish political survey, which is apparently demographically representative (albeit on the basis of algorithm-derived 'inferences' rather than definite information). However, it's not yet clear that it's been politically weighted in the way that would be standard for an online poll conducted by a BPC firm, so we should certainly be very cautious about the results.

    What stands out is a question asking whether people would prefer independence within the EU, or to remain in the UK under a Tory government after Brexit. The result is startlingly decisive -
    Independence within EU : 56.7%
    Brexit under the Tories : 43.3%
    It's important to stress that this is not a "Yes lead", any more than yesterday's widely misreported Panelbase poll was. There are undoubtedly people out there who would answer "no" to the straight question "Should Scotland be an independent country?" because of misplaced doubts over whether an independent Scotland could really remain in the EU, or over whether staying in the UK really means Tory rule for the foreseeable future. But that's not to say that these findings are meaningless - they chart a course to how a Yes vote could conceivably be won, if the choice is framed correctly.
    There are also voting intention numbers for the general election, which are initially quite hard to make sense of, because (in contrast to the practice in standard polls) the Don't Knows haven't been stripped out.
    Westminster voting intentions :
    SNP 38.9%
    Conservatives 24.6%
    Labour 17.8%
    Greens 8.4%
    Liberal Democrats 6.2%
    A rough calculation suggests that the SNP would be on around 40.6% of the vote if Don't Knows were removed - essentially identical to their 41% showing in the recent YouGov poll. However, the Tories would be on only 25.7% - making this their worst showing of the general election campaign so far. The SNP's 15% lead over the Tories also equals the record in the Survation poll as the biggest lead of the campaign (compared to 13% with YouGov and 11% with Panelbase). Far more important, though, is the implausibly high vote for the Greens. If it can be assumed that a decent chunk of that vote is actually destined for the SNP, this poll is effectively implying a very, very healthy SNP lead.
    All of this does of course depend on whether we can trust Google's methodology, and given that it's so untested, I'm not at all convinced that we can.
    #Persevered
    Scotland can be a beacon, within these islands and beyond, for a socially just and sustainable society. Whilst there are many priorities which will require independence, there is also much that can and must be done now by the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government.

  11. #2050
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    Quote Originally Posted by Golden Fleece View Post
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    These are not my words, but worthy of consideration.


    I'm not sure if the Record have abandoned Survation as their regular pollster, but for whatever reason they've commissioned Google to produce a Scottish political survey, which is apparently demographically representative (albeit on the basis of algorithm-derived 'inferences' rather than definite information). However, it's not yet clear that it's been politically weighted in the way that would be standard for an online poll conducted by a BPC firm, so we should certainly be very cautious about the results.

    What stands out is a question asking whether people would prefer independence within the EU, or to remain in the UK under a Tory government after Brexit. The result is startlingly decisive -
    Independence within EU : 56.7%
    Brexit under the Tories : 43.3%
    It's important to stress that this is not a "Yes lead", any more than yesterday's widely misreported Panelbase poll was. There are undoubtedly people out there who would answer "no" to the straight question "Should Scotland be an independent country?" because of misplaced doubts over whether an independent Scotland could really remain in the EU, or over whether staying in the UK really means Tory rule for the foreseeable future. But that's not to say that these findings are meaningless - they chart a course to how a Yes vote could conceivably be won, if the choice is framed correctly.
    There are also voting intention numbers for the general election, which are initially quite hard to make sense of, because (in contrast to the practice in standard polls) the Don't Knows haven't been stripped out.
    Westminster voting intentions :
    SNP 38.9%
    Conservatives 24.6%
    Labour 17.8%
    Greens 8.4%
    Liberal Democrats 6.2%
    A rough calculation suggests that the SNP would be on around 40.6% of the vote if Don't Knows were removed - essentially identical to their 41% showing in the recent YouGov poll. However, the Tories would be on only 25.7% - making this their worst showing of the general election campaign so far. The SNP's 15% lead over the Tories also equals the record in the Survation poll as the biggest lead of the campaign (compared to 13% with YouGov and 11% with Panelbase). Far more important, though, is the implausibly high vote for the Greens. If it can be assumed that a decent chunk of that vote is actually destined for the SNP, this poll is effectively implying a very, very healthy SNP lead.
    All of this does of course depend on whether we can trust Google's methodology, and given that it's so untested, I'm not at all convinced that we can.
    I have my doubts about the polling, but given bow unreliable mainstream polling has been recently, it is a wider problem than just google.

  12. #2051
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    Ive voted SNP previously, although given who they have just selected as their Edinburgh South candidate, there is no chance this time!
    Why is that, may I ask?

  13. #2052
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    I have my doubts about the polling, but given bow unreliable mainstream polling has been recently, it is a wider problem than just google.
    The comment near the end about the Green vote is probably important as I have my doubts about how many Green candidates there will be this time round, only 2 years after the last election.

    FWIW I know of a potential Green Candidate willing to put up their own candidate fee, but it needs the branch to agree the candidature.
    #Persevered
    Scotland can be a beacon, within these islands and beyond, for a socially just and sustainable society. Whilst there are many priorities which will require independence, there is also much that can and must be done now by the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government.

  14. #2053
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    Quote Originally Posted by grunt View Post
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    Why is that, may I ask?
    I think he is pretty rubbish, and im surprised the SNP have selected him, given he lost the same seat at Holyrood.

    Hes a complete careerist, never even lived in edinburgh south until he took the seat in 2011.

  15. #2054
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    And anyway, are you defending those MPs and their second jobs, or just indulging in some serious whataboutery?
    So you don't like it when MPs have second jobs ...

    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    Hes a complete careerist ...
    And you don't like it when politicians make a career out of being politicians.

    Perhaps you just don't like him because he's SNP?

  16. #2055
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    Quote Originally Posted by grunt View Post
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    So you don't like it when MPs have second jobs ...

    And you don't like it when politicians make a career out of being politicians.

    Perhaps you just don't like him because he's SNP?
    Ha ha, didnt see that ambush coming mate! And i am the one who just likes to argue for the sake of it!!

    In the spirit of not being argumentative, im not gonna get into this, suffice to say i wont be voting for him (although i did in 2011) and ill just leave it there.

  17. #2056
    if the referendum comes to pass , does anyone dare to predict the result ?

    are the nationalists among you confident ?

    are all you unionists bricking it ?

    il have a crack , when sturgeon 1st dropped her bombshell i was thinking a yes vote was a stick on certainty . Now in the cold light of day im starting to think no would prevail if its held within sturgeons time table

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    Quote Originally Posted by makaveli1875 View Post
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    if the referendum comes to pass , does anyone dare to predict the result ?

    are the nationalists among you confident ?

    are all you unionists bricking it ?

    il have a crack , when sturgeon 1st dropped her bombshell i was thinking a yes vote was a stick on certainty . Now in the cold light of day im starting to think no would prevail if its held within sturgeons time table
    I think it would be very close either way, which is almost rhe worst outcome. Close ref results, as we are all now living through, seem to create more division than unity.

  19. #2058
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    Quote Originally Posted by makaveli1875 View Post
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    if the referendum comes to pass , does anyone dare to predict the result ?

    are the nationalists among you confident ?

    are all you unionists bricking it ?

    il have a crack , when sturgeon 1st dropped her bombshell i was thinking a yes vote was a stick on certainty . Now in the cold light of day im starting to think no would prevail if its held within sturgeons time table
    I'm leaning that way as well.... I do think that however well/bad the Tories do in the GE and whatever comes out of the Brexit negotiations will move the dial one way or another though!
    "The word "genius" isn't applicable in football. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein."
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  20. #2059
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    Quote Originally Posted by makaveli1875 View Post
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    if the referendum comes to pass , does anyone dare to predict the result ?

    are the nationalists among you confident ?

    are all you unionists bricking it ?

    il have a crack , when sturgeon 1st dropped her bombshell i was thinking a yes vote was a stick on certainty . Now in the cold light of day im starting to think no would prevail if its held within sturgeons time table
    I think it would be a no if it were to happen within the next couple of years. Sturgeon has over-estimated the depth of feeling that many Scots have about Brexit - it simply hasn't done enough to swing enough people who hold entrenched views to vote the other way. And then you have to consider the sizeable 30% of SNP voters who voted to leave the EU.

    A no result would and could be catastrophically damaging to the Independence movement.

    I think that if we waited 10 years or so, weathered whatever Brexit brought us, endured another decade of Tory rule, possibly renegotiating a "fairer" (for England) Barnett formula and have a decade's worth of old people who can just about remember the glorious post-WW2 era die off then it would be a 100% shoo-in.

    I do think there's bit of the personal glory thing about it from Sturgeon and Salmond though. I think there is a greedy self-interest and that they wold like to be the ones that ushered in Scotland's independence and I think that they would risk independence ever happening to have their "shot at glory".

    And that's from someone who quite likes Sturgeon and Salmond and would vote yes in a referendum.

  21. #2060
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smartie View Post
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    I think it would be a no if it were to happen within the next couple of years. Sturgeon has over-estimated the depth of feeling that many Scots have about Brexit - it simply hasn't done enough to swing enough people who hold entrenched views to vote the other way. And then you have to consider the sizeable 30% of SNP voters who voted to leave the EU.

    A no result would and could be catastrophically damaging to the Independence movement.

    I think that if we waited 10 years or so, weathered whatever Brexit brought us, endured another decade of Tory rule, possibly renegotiating a "fairer" (for England) Barnett formula and have a decade's worth of old people who can just about remember the glorious post-WW2 era die off then it would be a 100% shoo-in.

    I do think there's bit of the personal glory thing about it from Sturgeon and Salmond though. I think there is a greedy self-interest and that they wold like to be the ones that ushered in Scotland's independence and I think that they would risk independence ever happening to have their "shot at glory".

    And that's from someone who quite likes Sturgeon and Salmond and would vote yes in a referendum.
    Some good points.

    I was thinking about this, but if we were led to indy, imo the person who leads us there (sturgeon or a successor) should bed it in then bow put.

    My thinking being that a sizeable minority would hate her (or whoever) amd so it would be difficult for that person to bring the country together - they would be too divisive.

    Look at the vitriol we see around just now. I think it would be in the country's best interests to bring in someone relatively clean.

  22. #2061
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    Some good points.

    I was thinking about this, but if we were led to indy, imo the person who leads us there (sturgeon or a successor) should bed it in then bow put.

    My thinking being that a sizeable minority would hate her (or whoever) amd so it would be difficult for that person to bring the country together - they would be too divisive.

    Look at the vitriol we see around just now. I think it would be in the country's best interests to bring in someone relatively clean.
    Yes, I agree.

    We're not short of decent candidates. All of the political parties have superb Scottish politicians who would be ideal candidates to take us forward - if they wanted to.

    Scottish politics may well see an exodus as our "Unionist" politicians head South in an attempt to carve out a career there. It has been comforting in a way to see remainers rally behind Brexit once it has been decided that that is the way the country is going, and it gives me faith that our best politicians might be content to dust themselves down post-Indy and work towards a positive future in Scotland.

    I find the thought of what it would actually be like in an independent Scotland fascinating and I'd love to see how it might pan out.

    The biggest downside would be what would we do to ourselves in the immediate aftermath. There will be some very unhappy people, there will be an exodus and there will be a fair bit of turmoil. Once that had calmed down then I'm sure we would go on to make a roaring success of it.

  23. #2062
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    Quote Originally Posted by makaveli1875 View Post
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    if the referendum comes to pass , does anyone dare to predict the result ?

    are the nationalists among you confident ?

    are all you unionists bricking it ?

    il have a crack , when sturgeon 1st dropped her bombshell i was thinking a yes vote was a stick on certainty . Now in the cold light of day im starting to think no would prevail if its held within sturgeons time table
    As mentioned before i believe momentum and demographics will mean independence is a matter of when not if.

  24. #2063
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    Quote Originally Posted by pacoluna View Post
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    As mentioned before i believe momentum and demographics will mean independence is a matter of when not if.
    I used to think this, and probably still do to an extent - that indy was a process where powers would move to holyrood almost by osmosis. The drip drip effect would nullify the opposition, suddem shocks and fear.

    Its one of the reasosn i believe sturgeon has overplayer her hand - by bringing the matter to a head so quickly, possibly prematurely she risks undoing decades of work and halting that process. Obviously the gamble could pay off, but i would say the 'slowly slowly' strategy would have more chance. But equally i suppose it is more capricious. Judgement call either way, but its very high stakes stuff.

  25. #2064
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    Quote Originally Posted by ronaldo7 View Post
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    Local election issue.

    Willie Young, Labours Aberdeen council finance boss is an innocent bystander.

    https://t.co/3ZMaIc6Llc

    Any Aberdonians shed any light on this misunderstanding?
    Quote Originally Posted by marinello59 View Post
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    Willie Young epitomizes everything that is wrong with the ruling Labour Council in Aberdeen. Thankfully they won't be in place much longer.
    It looks like the Labour finance councillor in Aberdeen did nothing wrong in waving through work done on land owed by.....His Dad.

    The council accepted Mr Young was not the registered title holder, but he had refused to comment on whether any of his family owned the land.

    https://t.co/VLGl7LCmtm

  26. #2065
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    I used to think this, and probably still do to an extent - that indy was a process where powers would move to holyrood almost by osmosis. The drip drip effect would nullify the opposition, suddem shocks and fear.

    Its one of the reasosn i believe sturgeon has overplayer her hand - by bringing the matter to a head so quickly, possibly prematurely she risks undoing decades of work and halting that process. Obviously the gamble could pay off, but i would say the 'slowly slowly' strategy would have more chance. But equally i suppose it is more capricious. Judgement call either way, but its very high stakes stuff.
    I think to some extent you have to shake the tree to collect the fruit. It's only a realistic threat of independence that will bring more power to Holyrood.

    As to the original question, it's going to be really close. I didn't think we had any chance in 2014 until the last couple of weeks. This time we're obviously starting from almost as high a base as we finished in 2014.

    I think if Yes has clear, coherent positions on
    - currency
    - EU membership including any transition through EEA and future referendum
    - a realistic deficit forecast and credible plan to bring it under control within a few years
    - and a well laid out strategy to capitalise on Brexit and our position as a single market haven.
    then we'll win.

    Otoh, I'm not overly confident we'll get all of that. The natural born pessimist in me thinks we'll lose just so we get the full effect of the coming Brexit slowdown and the UK gets to squeeze every last drop out of the north sea. When we're well and truly ****ed in a decade or 2, maybe we'll get indyref3

  27. #2066
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    Its one of the reasosn i believe sturgeon has overplayer her hand - by bringing the matter to a head so quickly, possibly prematurely she risks undoing decades of work and halting that process.
    We've been through this before, I'm sure. The timing was forced on the SNP by the Brexit vote. If we wait until Brexit is done and dusted, it's likely that May and Davis will have given away many of our Scottish rights and assets during the negotiations, in exchange for benefits for London and the financial sector. So we will be poorer after Brexit. And leaving the UK then will be difficult, because many of the assets that we will need to allow us to prosper will no longer be ours, or at least we won't have the rights to them. May will not hesitate to diminish Scotland in an attempt to get what she wants for London. It's a win/win situation for her.
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    Judgement call either way, but its very high stakes stuff.
    Absolutely. The highest stakes of all. The future and wellbeing of our country and our people.

  28. #2067
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    Quote Originally Posted by ronaldo7 View Post
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    It looks like the Labour finance councillor in Aberdeen did nothing wrong in waving through work done on land owed by.....His Dad.

    The council accepted Mr Young was not the registered title holder, but he had refused to comment on whether any of his family owned the land.

    https://t.co/VLGl7LCmtm
    So there's dubiety over the ownership?

    Simple solution, ask the Land owner (councillors dad) is it your wall?

    Yes = he pays to get it fixed.

    No = council knocks it down to the extent it's safe.

    In the case of the 2nd option the land owner could always get a brand new wall built if they would prefer some privacy


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  29. #2068
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    Quote Originally Posted by grunt View Post
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    We've been through this before, I'm sure. The timing was forced on the SNP by the Brexit vote. If we wait until Brexit is done and dusted, it's likely that May and Davis will have given away many of our Scottish rights and assets during the negotiations, in exchange for benefits for London and the financial sector. So we will be poorer after Brexit. And leaving the UK then will be difficult, because many of the assets that we will need to allow us to prosper will no longer be ours, or at least we won't have the rights to them. May will not hesitate to diminish Scotland in an attempt to get what she wants for London. It's a win/win situation for her.
    Absolutely. The highest stakes of all. The future and wellbeing of our country and our people.
    I dont agree it was forced on her. I think she jumped the gun because she made an emotional reaction to Brexit, and before she knew it she had locked her party into it. She could have waited, and there are nats who think so too. Bit ultimately it has been and gone.

    The ideal situation for the nats would have been hold fire, and let brexit unravel, and let public opinion come to them. She could have been in a situatiob where there begins to be a public clamour for a ref. By going too early, if it happens, it risks not allowing that to happen.

    There was a rumour going round westminster that no.10 would allow a ref, bit only if it was held in 2017. Obviously that never happened, but if true it suggests they were more confidemt of going early.

    But history will be the judge i suppose!

  30. #2069
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    Quote Originally Posted by Just Alf View Post
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    So there's dubiety over the ownership?

    Simple solution, ask the Land owner (councillors dad) is it your wall?

    Yes = he pays to get it fixed.

    No = council knocks it down to the extent it's safe.

    In the case of the 2nd option the land owner could always get a brand new wall built if they would prefer some privacy


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    Is that not a plot line from In The Loop...?

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  31. #2070
    @hibs.net private member Just Alf's Avatar
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    I remember watching some of the yes (prime) minister episodes on YouTube and having a wee laugh at how close to the truth they actually were in hindsight!



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