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Thread: Indy Ref 2

  1. #121
    @hibs.net private member Bristolhibby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by High-On-Hibs View Post
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    But wasn't it "wee pablo from spain" who was going to stand in our way and stop us gaining entry?
    And wee Pablo will be very keen to fish in Scottish waters.

    J


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  3. #122
    @hibs.net private member allmodcons's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JackLadd View Post
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    I see nats are playing the man and not the ball as usual. You have never dealt in facts, only heather brained dreams and castles made of sand / tartan utopias. Look at the raw data of where we do our trade (17% Eu, 68% England), the current deficit of revenue vs expenditure in Scotland (9%, and not including legacy debt that would be added), the oil taxation revenue on current Brent crude price (0%), the 10% unemployment in the Euro zone, and argue on that. Go on and make a case. How long do you think we'd last? How would it be better? Sturgeon will be A okay, not most of you.
    Who is suggesting that we cease trading with England? You are aware that they sell more to us than we do to them?

    The current deficit is an issue, but nobody should take what GERS says as gospel. This was a mistake made by the SNP at the last referendum. One I hope they won't make again. IMO you can't effectively measure the extent to which England economically supports Scotland (or vice versa) when there are not separate English and Scottish economies.

    As for oil revenues, it's amusing how you concentrate on a single bad year. Check out the peaks and troughs of the last 30 years. Alistair Darling himself stated back in 2008 that "Scotland's oil revenues have been underwriting the UK's failure to balance the books for decades".

    One of my favourite quotes comes from Derek Bateman and truly sums up your position - "A country denied the ability to run its own economy is blamed for being bankrupt by the authority which exercises those macro-economic powers over it. The British Treasury pulls our wings off and then laughs when we can't fly".

    As for posters playing the man, you have nobody to blame but yourself for that.




  4. #123
    Quote Originally Posted by High-On-Hibs View Post
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    But wasn't it "wee pablo from spain" who was going to stand in our way and stop us gaining entry?
    it was big Fernando that said that i think



  5. #124
    Coaching Staff steakbake's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by High-On-Hibs View Post
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    But wasn't it "wee pablo from spain" who was going to stand in our way and stop us gaining entry?
    Quite. One single word from any passing Spanish politician will be seized upon by both sides to reinforce their belief.

    I'll be honest, I'd rather be a country looking to secure access to the single market and possibly the EU itself, than definitely on an island which is drifting away from both.

    Last time was a decision to make but I suspect this time, minds will be very concentrated. The stakes are even higher now.

  6. #125
    @hibs.net private member Newry Hibs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bristolhibby View Post
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    A democratically elected Scottish Government.

    J
    So what's the question this time? Yes / No to UK or Yes / No to EU

  7. #126
    @hibs.net private member PeeJay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    So by the time of Indyref2 will I know if I vote yes that I am voting for Scotland to be part of the EU, no if and buts and maybes but a signed off guarantee that Scotland will join the EU, or will I be voting for a 'we hope so, we think so' type scenario.

    Will we know what a Yes or No vote will mean for our EU membership with complete certainty?
    No - and it should be irrelevant anyway - Scottish "independence" is something that should be voted for or against, on its own merits only, not on whether an independent Scotland can be a member of the EU. There are no guarantees regarding the EU. With upcoming elections in The Netherlands, France and Germany - if the worse comes to the worst - the EU landscape may change beyond recognition, or the EU could break up - what will an "independent" Scotland then do - have another referendum?

  8. #127
    @hibs.net private member Golden Fleece's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bristolhibby View Post
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    And wee Pablo will be very keen to fish in Scottish waters.

    J
    Whether we remain part of the EU or not that is unlikely to change, it will be part of the 'DEAL' for Brexit.
    #Persevered
    Scotland can be a beacon, within these islands and beyond, for a socially just and sustainable society. Whilst there are many priorities which will require independence, there is also much that can and must be done now by the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government.

  9. #128
    @hibs.net private member Bristolhibby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Newry Hibs View Post
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    So what's the question this time? Yes / No to UK or Yes / No to EU
    Yes / No to Independence.

    Then whatever Independent Scotlands elected Government that forms a majority can decide what happens in Scotland. That's the rub for me.

    Decisions made by the Scottish Population to the benefit of the Scottish people.

    J

  10. #129
    Quote Originally Posted by JackLadd View Post
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    I see nats are playing the man and not the ball as usual. You have never dealt in facts, only heather brained dreams and castles made of sand / tartan utopias. Look at the raw data of where we do our trade (17% Eu, 68% England), the current deficit of revenue vs expenditure in Scotland (9%, and not including legacy debt that would be added), the oil taxation revenue on current Brent crude price (0%), the 10% unemployment in the Euro zone, and argue on that. Go on and make a case. How long do you think we'd last? How would it be better? Sturgeon will be A okay, not most of you.
    Ok, I will attempt to look beyond your childish, arrogant, insulting condescension and blatant ignorance and try and respond.

    1. Where in your "raw data" are you accounting for post-Brexit relocation of business to an iScotland in the EU*? And that's short term, your long term analysis of inward investment to Scotland in the scenarios of part of a hard Brexit UK and an independent country within the single market will also be appreciated.

    * btw, don't take my word for this, here's anti-Scottish independence Welsh Labour MP, Geraint Davies, "But would you accept, given what's happened, in the event that Scotland did become independent and part of the EU, trading within the EU so it wouldn't face any tariffs, that would provoke a lot of industries from England and Wales, sadly, to simply migrate to Scotland, up the road. It would be a disaster for England and Wales if Scotland were to go and take all this industry to work within the EU."

    Let's say for example that tariffs on trade with England act as a 5% brake on cross-border trade but our favourable position in the single market boosts EU trade by a quarter. (1.25 * .17) + (0.68 * 0.95) + 0.15 = 1.01 (RoW unchanged). Now obviously I've just plucked those numbers out of thin air but I'm sure a super clever-clogs like yourself can come up with a bang on point analysis.

    2. Scotland does not have a deficit in the traditional sense as it does not borrow anything (it also only sets rates of a very limited part the tax powers applied here). However, it is true that the gap between taxes raised in Scotland and current expenditure by the Scottish and UK governments is not a position anyone should want to be in (so why do you want to stay in it?) btw, "Legacy debt" as in a population share of UK debt repayments *is* included in GERS (and accuracy is always helpful). Any negotiation of iScotland's commitment to support historical debt accrued by the UK would be influenced by our population share of all UK assets. These are disproportionately outside Scotland so would see a reduction in our favour.

    3. The unemployment rate in the Eurozone is irrelevant and I don't even know what that's doing there but I suppose it's marginally preferable to tedious Braveheart and/or Wee Jimmie Krankie jokes

    4. How do you propose to tackle Scotland's demographic challenges as a region in a country where the governing party is hellbent on reducing immigration as one of its key priorities?

    5. What's your strategy for tackling Scotland's "deficit" or would you rather keep us "too poor" so we shut up and eat our cereal?
    Last edited by JeMeSouviens; 13-03-2017 at 04:01 PM.

  11. #130
    @hibs.net private member Bristolhibby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Golden Fleece View Post
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    Whether we remain part of the EU or not that is unlikely to change, it will be part of the 'DEAL' for Brexit.
    Unless the Scottish population decides They don't like the look of the deal and believe an Infependent Scotland can get a better deal, perhaps as a member of the EU, perhaps not. That would be for future iScottish Governments to decide, not a perpetual Conservative Westminster.

    J

  12. #131
    @hibs.net private member johnbc70's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeeJay View Post
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    No - and it should be irrelevant anyway - Scottish "independence" is something that should be voted for or against, on its own merits only, not on whether an independent Scotland can be a member of the EU. There are no guarantees regarding the EU. With upcoming elections in The Netherlands, France and Germany - if the worse comes to the worst - the EU landscape may change beyond recognition, or the EU could break up - what will an "independent" Scotland then do - have another referendum?
    Irrelevant? Is that not why we are having Indyref2 in the first place?

  13. #132
    @hibs.net private member speedy_gonzales's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by High-On-Hibs View Post
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    The point (i think) you seem to be making is that it's ok for elections to be held regularly, but not referendums. But you haven't given any reason as to why you think this should be the case.

    You can't comment on it, or you won't comment on it?
    The point I'm woefully trying to make is elections are not referendums.
    Referendums should be used for important decisions or legislation where there is a binary answer that affect the whole state, but I wouldn't want them for every decision otherwise why bother having elections, we'll just run the country with perpetual referendums.
    Where we do have a referendum, I don't think it's right to have another referendum on the same topic so soon. I'm well aware there's been material changes regarding Europe but you can't keep asking the same question until you get the right answer, that to me is badgering not democracy.

  14. #133
    @hibs.net private member Peevemor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by speedy_gonzales View Post
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    The point I'm woefully trying to make is elections are not referendums.
    Referendums should be used for important decisions or legislation where there is a binary answer that affect the whole state, but I wouldn't want them for every decision otherwise why bother having elections, we'll just run the country with perpetual referendums.
    Where we do have a referendum, I don't think it's right to have another referendum on the same topic so soon. I'm well aware there's been material changes regarding Europe but you can't keep asking the same question until you get the right answer, that to me is badgering not democracy.
    But because there has been a material change, it isn't the same question.

  15. #134
    First Team Breakthrough
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    I think the timing of this strengthens the EU hand in Brexit negotiations but I think this may have been the SNP plan.

  16. #135
    Quote Originally Posted by Golden Fleece View Post
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    Dear XXXXXXX,

    Today Nicola Sturgeon confirmed she intends to call a second referendum on Scottish independence.
    Time is short if we are to stop her, so forgive me if I come straight to the point.
    I need your help.
    We know that the SNP has been building up a huge war-chest to fight another referendum.
    And we also know Nicola Sturgeon will have no hesitation in putting the full power of the Scottish government behind her campaign to break up Britain. That’s the same government we pay for, and which is meant to be hard at work improving our local schools and hospitals.
    So we need to stop this in its tracks now. We need to match her, pound for pound.
    Please make a donation today, and you have my personal guarantee that every penny will be spent on opposing Nicola Sturgeon’s new independence referendum drive.
    Thank you for your support.

    Ruth Davidson
    Leader of the Opposition - Scottish Conservatives
    PS: You can also help by signing our petition against a second independence referendum. Thousands of people have already signed it, so make sure your voice is heard.
    Have you been hacking JK Rowling's email?

  17. #136
    First Team Breakthrough The Tubs's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smartie View Post
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    I think that this is the crux of the matter.

    I nearly didn't bother going to vote in the EU referendum. I forgot, I hadn't given it a great deal of thought and went along with about half an hour to cast my vote. I voted to remain but I must admit that I was probably 70/30 at most. In voting remain I was far from giving a ringing endorsement of the recent record of the EU, in fact it was anything but. But it was vote for a bigger picture that I believe in, and I'd rather we tried to change from within that from outside.

    I have a problem with the Euro. I know that the financial crash mainly came about because of the sub-prime lending situation particularly in the USA, but I think the single European currency has a lot to answer for. I don't like that countries in the Eu have fiscal union but not political union - in my opinion it cannot work. I didn't like the SNP plan to use the pound last Indyref and I wouldn't like it now (nor do I like the Euro). The problems in the Euro zone have come about since the introduction of the Euro.

    I think that the EU is a fantastic idea and the fact that relative peace has been kept over the past 50 years in a historically volatile part of the world has been a great achievement and is in many ways thanks to the EU.

    I do however think that change has been too rapid, and I don't think enough respect is paid towards our differences. Different groups of people sometimes have different outlooks and values and I don't think the EU pays enough respect to that. German values should not be being inflicted on the Greeks etc etc. I would like the pace of change to be slower and I think those who are frustrated with the EU have been most uncomfortable about the rate of change.


    I believe strongly that Scotland should be Independent from the UK. I believe that much more strongly than I do that we have the right to hold another referendum, I respected the result the last time and accepted that the likes of being taken out of the EU, having endless Conservative governments etc etc were the prices we had to pay for not winning the argument in 2014. I'm not 100% convinced that enough has materially changed since 2014 to justify another referendum but I'll go with it anyway.

    What will be interesting will be for those who do feel passionately about Europe and what may have happened to their opinions, particularly the LibDems. They're generally a very pro-European lot and may find more that they like in a Yes campaign than the hard Brexit one. There may be Labour politicians who might have a political future if they join the Yes side, whereas they may have no future whatsoever if they stay put.

    We live in interesting times.
    I think one of the problems of the euro is that it's a monetary union without being a fiscal one.

    It it is no way certain that we'll adopt the euro on independence. A Scottish quid in efta could be a good solution, until the eu sorts out it's democratic/economic/political problems. It's a pity that the eu referendum has forced us to rush independence as we haven't had a good enough debate around these issues.

    efta might put us in a good position to take advantage of business and talent running from the UK. Though it would make Edinburgh even pricier and would need intervention to stop it turning into London.

  18. #137
    Quote Originally Posted by speedy_gonzales View Post
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    The point I'm woefully trying to make is elections are not referendums.
    Referendums should be used for important decisions or legislation where there is a binary answer that affect the whole state, but I wouldn't want them for every decision otherwise why bother having elections, we'll just run the country with perpetual referendums.
    Where we do have a referendum, I don't think it's right to have another referendum on the same topic so soon. I'm well aware there's been material changes regarding Europe but you can't keep asking the same question until you get the right answer, that to me is badgering not democracy.
    Ok then. Scotland had an election, voted overwhelmingly for the Scottish National Party. So going by your understanding of how things should be done, Scotland should just skip the referendum and go straight to independence. After all, we've elected a party that supports the notion of independence.

  19. #138
    @hibs.net private member ronaldo7's Avatar
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    [QUOTE=RagingReality;4977460]After the 2014 referendum I was quite happy to let the issue settle despite the result (voted Yes). The EU vote changed that for me - I've always been more pro-EU than pro-independence and I am genuinely concerned and frightened by the growing rise of ethnic nationalism in Europe and worldwide. There is absolutely no way I want to be part of an isolationist UK to the point where I've been seriously considering moving abroad.

    The Holyrood result and the EU result gave Sturgeon a mandate for a second referendum - if we vote No this time then that really will be the issue done for a generation. We're by no means definitely going to thrive as an independent nation if we vote Yes this time, but IMO it's a decision between "might not be ****" (Yes) and "definitely will be ****" (No).

    I understand a want for stability if you're a relatively secure homeowner with a stable income and good pension prospects, but for "generation rent" and the 100k EU nationals resident in Scotland (which pretty much sums up me and my partner) we'll be ****ed if nothing changes.[/QUOTE]

    I'm one of those stable and relatively secure homeowner types. Just after June 23rd last year, all I could think of was the EU workers who'd made their home in Scotland, and how they were feeling. Hopefully, they'll be feeling a bit better after today's announcement by our First Minister.

  20. #139
    @hibs.net private member PeeJay's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    Irrelevant? Is that not why we are having Indyref2 in the first place?
    Seems to me that Sturgeon and her SNP are simply using the EU as the latest wedge to drive apart the UK while pushing for yet another referendum: it was oil before now it is the EU. It's independence at any price, are you prepared to pay it?

  21. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeeJay View Post
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    Seems to me that Sturgeon and her SNP are simply using the EU as the latest wedge to drive apart the UK while pushing for yet another referendum: it was oil before now it is the EU. It's independence at any price, are you prepared to pay it?

    Come on now...regardless of your politics, surely you would agree the landscape in Scotland has completely changed a) without Scotland's choosing and b) from that which was presented at the first indyref.

  22. #141
    Quote Originally Posted by PeeJay View Post
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    Seems to me that Sturgeon and her SNP are simply using the EU as the latest wedge to drive apart the UK while pushing for yet another referendum: it was oil before now it is the EU. It's independence at any price, are you prepared to pay it?
    The EU is pretty big "wedge" to be fair.

    What's the price of remaining in the UK and cutting off all free market trade with the EU, due to a hard brexit that Scotland didn't vote for?

  23. #142
    @hibs.net private member Peevemor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by PeeJay View Post
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    Seems to me that Sturgeon and her SNP are simply using the EU as the latest wedge to drive apart the UK while pushing for yet another referendum: it was oil before now it is the EU. It's independence at any price, are you prepared to pay it?
    The outlook/mindest of the majority in Scotland is currently the opposite of that in England. That's what is driving the UK apart and that is why SNP support in Scotland far outweighs that of their London controlled counterparts.

  24. #143
    @hibs.net private member snooky's Avatar
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    May says SNP have tunnel vision.
    Can't have anything else if you're constantly kept in one.

  25. #144
    Coaching Staff steakbake's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by High-On-Hibs View Post
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    Ok then. Scotland had an election, voted overwhelmingly for the Scottish National Party. So going by your understanding of how things should be done, Scotland should just skip the referendum and go straight to independence. After all, we've elected a party that supports the notion of independence.
    Thatcher did once say that if Scotland returned a majority of MPs in favour of independence, then that is when it should be declared.

    Of course, not in her wildest dreams could she imagine the situation where that would be the case, so it is a moot point.

  26. #145
    @hibs.net private member ronaldo7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by KWJ View Post
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    UK ministers were on the “winning side” 95% of the time, abstained 3% of the time, and were on the losing side 2%.

    Numbers prior to the Brexit vote since 1999.

    Just sayin'.
    You wouldn't see those numbers on the side of a bus would you.

  27. #146
    Quote Originally Posted by steakbake View Post
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    Thatcher did once say that if Scotland returned a majority of MPs in favour of independence, then that is when it should be declared.

    Of course, not in her wildest dreams could she imagine the situation where that would be the case, so it is a moot point.
    She was a self confessed English nationalist who did her absolute best to drive the biggest wedge between Scotland and the rest of the UK. She caused far more damage between England/Scotland relations than the SNP ever could.

  28. #147
    Coaching Staff Smartie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigwheel View Post
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    Come on now...regardless of your politics, surely you would agree the landscape in Scotland has completely changed a) without Scotland's choosing and b) from that which was presented at the first indyref.
    I'm in favour of independence but I don't think this is as cut and dried as you make out. I favour independence quite a lot more than I think we have the right to hold another referendum.

    Scotland made it's decision in 2014 - therefore it was left at the mercy of certain things happening, such as being taken out of the EU against our will. That's what a "no' vote meant and you were either fine with that or not. I wasn't fine with it, so I voted "yes" in spite of the risks that went with it.

    It really is open to debate whether or not the landscape has completely changed. What we've had happen have been a series of events (vote on intervention in Syria, Brexit, more Tory government and austerity) that were inevitable as a result of the "no" vote. I'm not convinced that as many people are bothered about that as should be but there you go.

    40 years might have gone by without much changing, as it happened 2 and a bit years went by with a great deal happening. The only way that we will find out if enough has materially changed will be the the vote goes ahead.

  29. #148
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smartie View Post
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    I'm in favour of independence but I don't think this is as cut and dried as you make out. I favour independence quite a lot more than I think we have the right to hold another referendum.

    Scotland made it's decision in 2014 - therefore it was left at the mercy of certain things happening, such as being taken out of the EU against our will. That's what a "no' vote meant and you were either fine with that or not. I wasn't fine with it, so I voted "yes" in spite of the risks that went with it.

    It really is open to debate whether or not the landscape has completely changed. What we've had happen have been a series of events (vote on intervention in Syria, Brexit, more Tory government and austerity) that were inevitable as a result of the "no" vote. I'm not convinced that as many people are bothered about that as should be but there you go.

    40 years might have gone by without much changing, as it happened 2 and a bit years went by with a great deal happening. The only way that we will find out if enough has materially changed will be the the vote goes ahead.

    There is no doubt the Scottish Government have the right to hold another referendum... they campaigned on exactly this scenario

    What is for certain is that things will never be the same again, and whichever way we go forward, it will events of unprecedented nature. People, in my view, should have the right to choose the path for Scotland. Then we have to get behind it, regardless of outcome.

  30. #149
    Quote Originally Posted by Smartie View Post
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    I'm in favour of independence but I don't think this is as cut and dried as you make out. I favour independence quite a lot more than I think we have the right to hold another referendum.

    Scotland made it's decision in 2014 - therefore it was left at the mercy of certain things happening, such as being taken out of the EU against our will. That's what a "no' vote meant and you were either fine with that or not. I wasn't fine with it, so I voted "yes" in spite of the risks that went with it.

    It really is open to debate whether or not the landscape has completely changed. What we've had happen have been a series of events (vote on intervention in Syria, Brexit, more Tory government and austerity) that were inevitable as a result of the "no" vote. I'm not convinced that as many people are bothered about that as should be but there you go.

    40 years might have gone by without much changing, as it happened 2 and a bit years went by with a great deal happening. The only way that we will find out if enough has materially changed will be the the vote goes ahead.
    The notion of the moral right to hold another referendum is a bit vague and folk could argue that round the houses forever. However, practically the Scottish government has the right to hold a referendum if it was in proposed in their manifesto and they can win a vote in the Scottish Parliament. If folk don't like that then they'll have to vote in a different government.

  31. #150
    @hibs.net private member ronaldo7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smartie View Post
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    I'm in favour of independence but I don't think this is as cut and dried as you make out. I favour independence quite a lot more than I think we have the right to hold another referendum.

    Scotland made it's decision in 2014 - therefore it was left at the mercy of certain things happening, such as being taken out of the EU against our will. That's what a "no' vote meant and you were either fine with that or not. I wasn't fine with it, so I voted "yes" in spite of the risks that went with it.

    It really is open to debate whether or not the landscape has completely changed. What we've had happen have been a series of events (vote on intervention in Syria, Brexit, more Tory government and austerity) that were inevitable as a result of the "no" vote. I'm not convinced that as many people are bothered about that as should be but there you go.

    40 years might have gone by without much changing, as it happened 2 and a bit years went by with a great deal happening. The only way that we will find out if enough has materially changed will be the the vote goes ahead.
    We had a General Election in 2015, and we didn't know who would be elected to the UK parliament. Labour never had a EU referendum in their manifesto, so we couldn't know we'd actually get a Eu ref.

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