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Thread: Indy Ref 2

  1. #601
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    I voted Yes before and will very likely be a Yes again since, for me, the main reason why I want an independant country is so that we can shape the place as we see fit and not be an after-thought in a democratic system that frankly, doesn't work for us - how many times has the Scottish electorate voted for a Tory government over the last 30 years....

    What I will say though is that the SNP really need to come up with better answers around the currency issue and granted, we can't possibly predict every aspect of an iScotland's economy however, we pay these guys to give it a bloody good try so it will be criminal for them to put the country through this again without having some of the details thought out - otherwise, I can't see the result being much different than last time. We also need to look at Scandinavian countries and analyse what works for them, what can we learn from their education systems...etc. etc.

    I've really not got an appetite for 2/3 years of folk slagging off Sturgeon and May's haircut...like we get it, they should both club together and get themselves a better barnet but ffs, that adds absolutely no validity to an arguement and if that's the level of some people's debating skills then honestly I'm not sure I want to share a country with them - can we vote for the Jezza Kyle lot to leave as well?

    I know, its Saturday, I should be cheerier


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  3. #602
    @hibs.net private member Golden Fleece's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    Imagine if you are saving to buy a house or you have a sum that represents your life savings. If you had £10,000 in Savings today it's about €11,500, but a few years ago it was worth €14,500. That's a lot of money to have lost through no fault of your own.

    You might not care but lots do.

    That only matters if you are saving in the UK where the pound has sunk since the Brexit vote and intending to buy in a country where the currency is stronger. If you are saving in the UK and buying in the UK there is little difference.

    Buy anything from abroad just now and you will find the cost has increased due to the exchange rate.
    #Persevered
    Scotland can be a beacon, within these islands and beyond, for a socially just and sustainable society. Whilst there are many priorities which will require independence, there is also much that can and must be done now by the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government.

  4. #603
    @hibs.net private member CropleyWasGod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    Imagine if you are saving to buy a house or you have a sum that represents your life savings. If you had £10,000 in Savings today it's about €11,500, but a few years ago it was worth €14,500. That's a lot of money to have lost through no fault of your own.

    You might not care but lots do.
    You haven't lost anything though. Your purchasing power in the UK is still the same.

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  5. #604
    Quote Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod View Post
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    You haven't lost anything though. Your purchasing power in the UK is still the same.

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    Depreciation of a currency normally directly causes rising inflation driving costs upwards for businesses and consumers alike. However it does have a net benefit for rising exports that may or may not go some way to cancelling out the negative factor of rising inflation.

    glory glory

  6. #605
    @hibs.net private member CropleyWasGod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by northstandhibby View Post
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    Depreciation of a currency normally directly causes rising inflation driving costs upwards for businesses and consumers alike. However it does have a net benefit for rising exports that may or may not go some way to cancelling out the negative factor of rising inflation.

    glory glory
    It wouldn't affect the housing market though in the way suggested.

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    Last edited by CropleyWasGod; 18-03-2017 at 09:36 AM.

  7. #606
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    Quote Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod View Post
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    You haven't lost anything though. Your purchasing power in the UK is still the same.

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    What if we voted Yes and we switched to the Euro? Would my money not be worth much less?

    Point is its a critical issue.

  8. #607
    @hibs.net private member CropleyWasGod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    What if we voted Yes and we switched to the Euro? Would my money not be worth much less?

    Point is its a critical issue.
    Your money wouldn't be worth less in the UK property market. You would still get the same property for the same cost, whether that was in Euros or sterling.

    It's not that critical in those terms. The important issue IMO is the emotional one of giving up a familiar currency for one less so.

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  9. #608
    Quote Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod View Post
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    It wouldn't affect the housing market though in the way suggested.

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    Agreed.

    Inflation while affecting a persons disposable income would not necessarily immediately cause a property bust and lowering of house prices.

    glory glory

  10. #609
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    Quote Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod View Post
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    It wouldn't affect the housing market though in the way suggested.

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    Currency discussions...brilliant

    The crucial point here I think is that iScotland will continue to do most of its trade (in and out) with rUK. Therefore having a different currency to that market will impact iScotland in a large number of ways. Not all of them negative all of the time but none the less it would create some very interesting dynamics.

    You then need to add in who is in control of that currency and who sets the cost of it...so even keeping sterling brings a number of factors into play. Easy example here is the Irish real estate boom and bust, a classic example of what happens when a country uses a currency but does not set its own interest rates.

    Then you have all the problems associated with debt issuance not just for the government but for the economy at large. What happens to all the sterling denominated debt if we look to use a different currency?

    I'm sure we could fill up pages and pages on currencies and the use of one when outside a political union or when you have no central bank of your own or when you use a different currency to what the economy trades it's output for or he implications of being in a currency union that no longer has fiscal transfers etc etc etc so I'll stop here but the long and short of it is that to suggest (as others have done) that somehow this doesn't matter is absolutely bonkers.

  11. #610
    @hibs.net private member johnbc70's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by CropleyWasGod View Post
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    Your money wouldn't be worth less in the UK property market. You would still get the same property for the same cost, whether that was in Euros or sterling.

    It's not that critical in those terms. The important issue IMO is the emotional one of giving up a familiar currency for one less so.

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    I was not talking about property? Cash in the bank.

  12. #611
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    Imagine if you are saving to buy a house or you have a sum that represents your life savings. If you had £10,000 in Savings today it's about €11,500, but a few years ago it was worth €14,500. That's a lot of money to have lost through no fault of your own.

    You might not care but lots do.
    but whatever it converts to on the day of the new currency it will be worth exactly the same. Granted what it will be worth in a few years time is anyone's guess but that's true if any currency including the pound. What your pound, euro, dollar or groat buys today might not buy you the same tomorrow. It could buy you less it could buy you more.

  13. #612
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiMar View Post
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    Currency discussions...brilliant

    The crucial point here I think is that iScotland will continue to do most of its trade (in and out) with rUK. Therefore having a different currency to that market will impact iScotland in a large number of ways. Not all of them negative all of the time but none the less it would create some very interesting dynamics.

    You then need to add in who is in control of that currency and who sets the cost of it...so even keeping sterling brings a number of factors into play. Easy example here is the Irish real estate boom and bust, a classic example of what happens when a country uses a currency but does not set its own interest rates.

    Then you have all the problems associated with debt issuance not just for the government but for the economy at large. What happens to all the sterling denominated debt if we look to use a different currency?

    I'm sure we could fill up pages and pages on currencies and the use of one when outside a political union or when you have no central bank of your own or when you use a different currency to what the economy trades it's output for or he implications of being in a currency union that no longer has fiscal transfers etc etc etc so I'll stop here but the long and short of it is that to suggest (as others have done) that somehow this doesn't matter is absolutely bonkers.
    Don't stop I'm interested. Make sure to highlight the positives too tho.

  14. #613
    Quote Originally Posted by SiMar View Post
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    Currency discussions...brilliant

    The crucial point here I think is that iScotland will continue to do most of its trade (in and out) with rUK. Therefore having a different currency to that market will impact iScotland in a large number of ways. Not all of them negative all of the time but none the less it would create some very interesting dynamics.

    You then need to add in who is in control of that currency and who sets the cost of it...so even keeping sterling brings a number of factors into play. Easy example here is the Irish real estate boom and bust, a classic example of what happens when a country uses a currency but does not set its own interest rates.

    Then you have all the problems associated with debt issuance not just for the government but for the economy at large. What happens to all the sterling denominated debt if we look to use a different currency?

    I'm sure we could fill up pages and pages on currencies and the use of one when outside a political union or when you have no central bank of your own or when you use a different currency to what the economy trades it's output for or he implications of being in a currency union that no longer has fiscal transfers etc etc etc so I'll stop here but the long and short of it is that to suggest (as others have done) that somehow this doesn't matter is absolutely bonkers.
    While I'm no SNP supporter I cannot see why an independent Scotland would not be able to set up the infrastructure required with institutions set up specifically to deal with the currency/banking/wider economy issues. There are plenty of very clever and able folk situated in Scotland who are very capable of setting in place the necessary mechanisms.

    I may not be an SNP supporter but they're not stupid folk.

    glory glory

  15. #614
    @hibs.net private member CropleyWasGod's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    I was not talking about property? Cash in the bank.
    You spoke about saving money for a house.

    The principle is the same. When you decide to withdraw it, you will get the same property for your money, whether that's priced in Euros or £

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  16. #615
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    Imagine if you are saving to buy a house or you have a sum that represents your life savings. If you had £10,000 in Savings today it's about €11,500, but a few years ago it was worth €14,500. That's a lot of money to have lost through no fault of your own.

    You might not care but lots do.
    Aye but that's because the £ has lost value compared to the €. My €s go a lot further today than they did 7 years ago and the trend won't end any time soon. Great argument for joining the €.

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    Quote Originally Posted by northstandhibby View Post
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    While I'm no SNP supporter I cannot see why an independent Scotland would not be able to set up the infrastructure required with institutions set up specifically to deal with the currency/banking/wider economy issues. There are plenty of very clever and able folk situated in Scotland who are very capable of setting in place the necessary mechanisms.

    I may not be an SNP supporter but they're not stupid folk.

    glory glory
    I agree it's possible and that it's not really a political issue.

    However the challenges should not be underestimated.

    A simple example would be if a new scots pound was created to be implemented at the same time as Indy. Would that pound be pegged to sterling or not? If not then it could be safely assumed that it would probably be a weaker currency (at least at first)...therefore in day one any assets held in Scotland previously denominated in Sterling would become denominated in Scots pounds and therefore immediately start devaluing compared to sterling (and most likely a whole basket of major currencies). Quite simply if you had any liquid assets you would shift them out of the country before that happens so you may well see massive capital outflows up to and after that point. Capital flight almost certainly makes a country poorer due to the decrease in purchasing power and increase in import costs.

    Just one example of the hazards the currency question brings and smart people or not the route to currency Independence is a difficult one.


    On the flip side sharing a currency when there is no political union to enact fiscal transfers is possibly just as difficult and brings a whole host of its own issues or you can find plenty of examples where currency pegs blow up in the nations face (just ask John Major how the ERM went...)

    I appreciate the cause and effect of currency unions, pegs and free floating exchange rates is not exactly exciting chat and I'm no expert that's for sure but I know enough that it's clear this stuff is absolutely fundamental to a nations wealth and well being.

    I therefore massively struggle to understand how a case for independence can be put forward and taken seriously if the proponents of that do not have a very clear and considered approach to this issue. Of course I'm not expecting every voter to need or want to grasp all the intricacies but the people leading the charge damn well should or you could be forgiven in thinking they were being either extremely reckless or just down right foolish.

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    Quote Originally Posted by greenlex View Post
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    Don't stop I'm interested. Make sure to highlight the positives too tho.
    I'm not sure there are too many positives, at least in the short to medium term...just a hell of a lot of risk and uncertainty!

    My post above gives a small flavour of the issues but I'm trying to stay out of this round of Indy chat as really I've said my piece at length before and until there is a material advancement of some of the key issues that were raised the last time I'm not sure I have much else to say.

    Others have suggested to me the SNP are working on it and will produce a better and clearer picture of how they would see Indy working this time around. I've not seen much evidence of that so far so I'll wait patiently (and quietly!) for that to come to fruition before re-assessing.

  19. #618
    Quote Originally Posted by SiMar View Post
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    I agree it's possible and that it's not really a political issue.

    However the challenges should not be underestimated.

    A simple example would be if a new scots pound was created to be implemented at the same time as Indy. Would that pound be pegged to sterling or not? If not then it could be safely assumed that it would probably be a weaker currency (at least at first)...therefore in day one any assets held in Scotland previously denominated in Sterling would become denominated in Scots pounds and therefore immediately start devaluing compared to sterling (and most likely a whole basket of major currencies). Quite simply if you had any liquid assets you would shift them out of the country before that happens so you may well see massive capital outflows up to and after that point. Capital flight almost certainly makes a country poorer due to the decrease in purchasing power and increase in import costs.

    Just one example of the hazards the currency question brings and smart people or not the route to currency Independence is a difficult one.


    On the flip side sharing a currency when there is no political union to enact fiscal transfers is possibly just as difficult and brings a whole host of its own issues or you can find plenty of examples where currency pegs blow up in the nations face (just ask John Major how the ERM went...)

    I appreciate the cause and effect of currency unions, pegs and free floating exchange rates is not exactly exciting chat and I'm no expert that's for sure but I know enough that it's clear this stuff is absolutely fundamental to a nations wealth and well being.

    I therefore massively struggle to understand how a case for independence can be put forward and taken seriously if the proponents of that do not have a very clear and considered approach to this issue. Of course I'm not expecting every voter to need or want to grasp all the intricacies but the people leading the charge damn well should or you could be forgiven in thinking they were being either extremely reckless or just down right foolish.
    Have to admire the intellectual points you put forward Si mar.

    I agree it is fraught with uncertainty and independence may well frighten shrewd moneyed folk and chase away foreigh investment. Putting up walls between neighbours hopefully metaphorically speaking is not a particularly attractive one. There will be trade wars between what was the UK too of course.

    However brexit was always likely to cause SNP nationalism to re appear in light of a hard brexit and we'll have to get on with it if independence wins out.

    glory glory

  20. #619
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiMar View Post
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    I agree it's possible and that it's not really a political issue.

    However the challenges should not be underestimated.

    A simple example would be if a new scots pound was created to be implemented at the same time as Indy. Would that pound be pegged to sterling or not? If not then it could be safely assumed that it would probably be a weaker currency (at least at first)...therefore in day one any assets held in Scotland previously denominated in Sterling would become denominated in Scots pounds and therefore immediately start devaluing compared to sterling (and most likely a whole basket of major currencies). Quite simply if you had any liquid assets you would shift them out of the country before that happens so you may well see massive capital outflows up to and after that point. Capital flight almost certainly makes a country poorer due to the decrease in purchasing power and increase in import costs.

    Just one example of the hazards the currency question brings and smart people or not the route to currency Independence is a difficult one.


    On the flip side sharing a currency when there is no political union to enact fiscal transfers is possibly just as difficult and brings a whole host of its own issues or you can find plenty of examples where currency pegs blow up in the nations face (just ask John Major how the ERM went...)

    I appreciate the cause and effect of currency unions, pegs and free floating exchange rates is not exactly exciting chat and I'm no expert that's for sure but I know enough that it's clear this stuff is absolutely fundamental to a nations wealth and well being.

    I therefore massively struggle to understand how a case for independence can be put forward and taken seriously if the proponents of that do not have a very clear and considered approach to this issue. Of course I'm not expecting every voter to need or want to grasp all the intricacies but the people leading the charge damn well should or you could be forgiven in thinking they were being either extremely reckless or just down right foolish.

    Excuse me for copy and pasting this from a think tank with cross party (except Tory) members and support.

    This is a summary.

    It is widely acknowledged that one of the weaker aspectsof the 2012-14 Scottish independence campaign was thedebate around currency. The strategy of adopting a Sterlingunion with the rest of the UK, even after such a union hadbeen publicly dismissed by the pro-Union advocates, wasdeeply damaging in terms of both confidence in the proindependencecampaign itself and in uncertainty about thefuture of an independent Scotland.

    Key Points:-
    • Countries rarely have full control overall aspects of currency management simultaneously.Compromises must often be made, though differentcountries arrive at different solutions to those compromises.
    • Setting up a new currency, if anindependent Scotland chooses to do so, will involveplanning but the steps involved are well understood andopportunities arise for public involvement in some of them,particularly design of new notes and coins.
    • Currency options discussed include aformal currency union with either Sterling or the Eurozone;Unilateral use of either currency; or a new Scottish currency,dubbed the £Scot, managed under various options of fixed,flexible or floated pegs.
    • Whilst, economically, no single option islikely to be significantly better or worse than any other —merely different — the political weight tends towards therecommendation of a newly independent Scotland adoptingan independent £Scot, initially pegged to Sterling but withthe option of moving, changing or floating the peg as andwhen required or desired.
    #Persevered
    Scotland can be a beacon, within these islands and beyond, for a socially just and sustainable society. Whilst there are many priorities which will require independence, there is also much that can and must be done now by the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government.

  21. #620
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    Quote Originally Posted by Golden Fleece View Post
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    Excuse me for copy and pasting this from a think tank with cross party (except Tory) members and support.

    This is a summary.
    I disagree with the suggestion that any and all options will end up with largely the same economic impact...I simply can't see how that could be the case.

    To be fair though I'm proposing one way or the other it's just that ANY way has significant implications and I think these are largely not understood by the public and the risks deliberately played down by the pro Indy vanguard, which as I said does make me wonder why.

    Anyway I'm going to try and stick to my word and largely watch the debate from the sidelines...it's been an interesting read on here so far!

  22. #621
    @hibs.net private member Jack's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiMar View Post
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    I disagree with the suggestion that any and all options will end up with largely the same economic impact...I simply can't see how that could be the case.

    To be fair though I'm proposing one way or the other it's just that ANY way has significant implications and I think these are largely not understood by the public and the risks deliberately played down by the pro Indy vanguard, which as I said does make me wonder why.

    Anyway I'm going to try and stick to my word and largely watch the debate from the sidelines...it's been an interesting read on here so far!
    To be fair I think the answer is that the general public don't understand a personal bank account never mind the complications of international finance!
    Space to let

  23. #622
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack View Post
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    To be fair I think the answer is that the general public don't understand a personal bank account never mind the complications of international finance!
    Very true. There's a large level of debate which is somewhere between "I don't like Nippy so I can't wait to see her torn pus" and "*** Tories - freedom".

    No one likes to hear it but a big section of voters haven't got a scooby either way.

  24. #623
    @hibs.net private member greenginger's Avatar
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    Can anyone tell me when the SNP got so all lovey with being a member of the European Union.

    I seem to remember them campaigning to leave the European Union in the previous membership referendum.

    The Labour Party campaigned to leave too IIRC.

  25. #624
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    Quote Originally Posted by greenginger View Post
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    Can anyone tell me when the SNP got so all lovey with being a member of the European Union.

    I seem to remember them campaigning to leave the European Union in the previous membership referendum.

    The Labour Party campaigned to leave too IIRC.
    "Independence in Europe" was adopted as party policy circa 1990.

  26. #625
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    #Persevered
    Scotland can be a beacon, within these islands and beyond, for a socially just and sustainable society. Whilst there are many priorities which will require independence, there is also much that can and must be done now by the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government.

  27. #626
    Quote Originally Posted by southfieldhibby View Post
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    I think her abilities and leadership are significantly over estimated, propped up by a fawning media happy there's someone with even a gram of personality. She's sways in the wind and only managed to get into Parliament on the back of Edinburgh folk voting Green.

    She's clearly aiming for a job down south. A career politician from the same mould as Jim Murphy.
    This 1 million percent! Sir! I salute your indefatigability!

  28. #627
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jack View Post
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    To be fair I think the answer is that the general public don't understand a personal bank account never mind the complications of international finance!
    Billy Connolly said he knew a man who wouldn't vote for Neil Kinnock because he had red hair.
    Nothing wrong with that, IMO.



  29. #628
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    A good piece by James Kelly on Theresa May subverting democracy.

    https://t.co/RP7d3X38UN

  30. #629
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    Patrick Harvie getting another Tory, telt.

    https://t.co/oeAgBwutYr

  31. #630
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    Quote Originally Posted by ronaldo7 View Post
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    A good piece by James Kelly on Theresa May subverting democracy.

    https://t.co/RP7d3X38UN
    Who's James Kelly? Not an ardent nationalist by any chance?

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