If Mick could explain to us how to go about jumping Victoria that would be even better, the show would probably have to start later though! :-)This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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Thread: Cheltenham 2017
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02-01-2017 12:32 PM #61
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05-01-2017 12:50 PM #62
Oliver Sherwood suggesting Many Cloud might run in the Gold Cup.
Could throw a spanner in the works as he's a proven stayer who won't let anyone have a soft lead if he sets out to make it a stamina test.PM Awards General Poster of The Year 2015, 2016, 2017. Probably robbed in other years
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05-01-2017 02:02 PM #63
Apart from 1 notable mistake at Cheltenham in November, Thistlecrack is, in my opinion, virtually unbeatable. He's such a professional horse who jumps well, has speed, stays really well, and has good form at Cheltenham. Maybe the best indication of his ability is how he disposed of Cue Card in the King George. The year before Vautour had looked as if he was going to cruise to victory but Cue Card caught him. There was never any chance of that in the 2016 renewal, and they haven't got to the bottom of Thistlecrack, not by a long way.
As a decent each way bet I'd think about Alpha Des Obeaux in the RSA. His form last year would put him right up there, but we'll see.
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05-01-2017 10:43 PM #64
I've just had my 2nd early Cheltenham bet.
Finians Oscar in the Supreme Novices at 16/1 NRNB with Skybet. Won well at Hereford the other week and if he runs well in the Tolworth (currently 5/2 2nd favourite) on Saturday then that price will go.PM Awards General Poster of The Year 2015, 2016, 2017. Probably robbed in other years
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06-01-2017 04:38 PM #65
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I like Might Bite, who completed strolled the Kauto Star at Kempton before an unfortunate fall at the last. Think he's one to keep onside.Last edited by HibernianJK; 06-01-2017 at 04:41 PM.
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07-01-2017 05:14 PM #66This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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07-01-2017 07:41 PM #67
Who's going down this year. I'm heading down for the Thursday and Friday as usual. There's a hibs pub in Cheltenham as well. It would be great if we had a game on at the time.
United we stand here....
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07-01-2017 08:50 PM #68This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Heading to Musselburgh in a few weeks for the Scottish Trials. Good to see 2 consecutive days this year and the 'Edinburgh National' over a 4 mile trip is a good addition.PM Awards General Poster of The Year 2015, 2016, 2017. Probably robbed in other years
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07-01-2017 10:02 PM #69This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
United we stand here....
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07-01-2017 11:41 PM #70
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08-01-2017 02:54 PM #71
I see the much hyped American Tom for Ricci/Mullins/Walsh flopped today at Naas. 8/15 favourite and was last of 4 runners by a distance and being hard ridden when he fell badly 4 out.
On the flip side Death Duty done the business well for Elliot/Gigginstown. Likely to go for the Albert Bartlett according to Elliot.
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08-01-2017 06:07 PM #72
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09-01-2017 01:26 PM #73
Coneygree out of the Gold Cup.
PM Awards General Poster of The Year 2015, 2016, 2017. Probably robbed in other years
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09-01-2017 04:35 PM #74
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Can't help but feel the Bradstock's are chasing a bit of a lost cause with Coneygree.
I don't think he will ever return to the heights he hit and it looks like they are really struggling with him.
He's had his day in the sun and wouldn't mind seeing him retired.
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09-01-2017 04:57 PM #75This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
I'd hate to see another Simonsig situation where a good horse comes to a sad end trying to recapture old form. I agree if he isn't right then he should be retired.PM Awards General Poster of The Year 2015, 2016, 2017. Probably robbed in other years
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09-01-2017 08:12 PM #76This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
American Tom was never travelling and the fall was horrendous - relieved both horse and jockey were unscathed. I see it was discovered after that the horse had a lung infection so can put a line through that race.Last edited by Hamish; 09-01-2017 at 08:15 PM.
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09-01-2017 09:53 PM #77This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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10-01-2017 08:56 AM #78This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
I'm not for a second suggesting Many Clouds will win the Gold Cup, Aintree is his target and Cheltenham will be to get another run under his belt. The addition of a proven stayer over the marathon trips always adds a nice dynamic though, especially if others try to take them on for the lead. Adding Native River into the mix suggests a strong gallop is on the cards. A couple of examples in recent years is when Lord Windemere won the race. Teaforthree was in the field and went off quickly and most of the field fought for position. Davy Russell dropped right out the back and niggled LW to keep him in touch, as mistakes started to happen he powered through the field and won well in the end. Synchronised was another, he was off the bridle from miles out and McCoy produced a masterclass to keep him going, all he did was stay on and he passed the whole field up the hill.
I wouldn't take anything away from Thistlecracks form. However he did get the run off the race in a small field on his ground at Kempton. Cue Card also ran about 6lbs below his rating. It's also worth remembering that the Cheltenham chase course is a different beast to the hurdles course he knows well. The layout of the hurdles course rewards a high cruising speed as large sections are run on the 'flat'. The chase course, whilst still rewarding speed, is one of the ultimate jumping tests. Timeform ranked all NH chase courses in terms of jumping difficulty and Cheltenham ranked 5th behind Aintree National, Aintree Mildmay, Fakenham and Musselburgh.
I'm confident Thistlecrack will win and backed him a long while back at 6s so I won't be looking for anything else in te race. I just think he will get a far sterner test than at Kempton. There's a lot of different factors to take into account and I think it will be a better and closer race.PM Awards General Poster of The Year 2015, 2016, 2017. Probably robbed in other years
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10-01-2017 04:30 PM #79This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
I'm also going to be a bit controversial as regards Native River. Great weight-carrying performance in the Welsh National, but I'm struggling to see how he has any form that comes close to Djackadam, Don Cossack, Don Poli or Cue Card, nevermind Thistlecrack. I totally take your point that his best chance probably lies with him trying to force the pace, but again I would say that there's quite a few who like to do that, and I'm not sure he would have the pace to stay with them up the home straight. Now that I've said that he'll probably win by 12 lengths. Tactics, of course will play a huge part. In the Coneygree race, Many Clouds and Smad Place, both horses that like to force the pace, were held up. If I had £100 to spend on the race I'd stick £50 on Thistlecrack on the nose and probably Djackadam or Don Poli e/w, but it certainly won't the first time I've been wrong lol
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10-01-2017 05:40 PM #80
As an aside I see Kempton is potentially to be closed and houses built there.
King George to be moved to Sandown and a new AW circuit built at Newmarket.PM Awards General Poster of The Year 2015, 2016, 2017. Probably robbed in other years
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10-01-2017 10:25 PM #81This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
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11-01-2017 11:00 AM #82
Don Cossack retired.
PM Awards General Poster of The Year 2015, 2016, 2017. Probably robbed in other years
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11-01-2017 11:20 AM #83This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Great horse who did me a few favours, apart from falling in the KG 2015, he was my fourth of a lucky 15 with a tenner accy........Was worth 3k
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11-01-2017 01:18 PM #84This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Won me a few quid over the years including in a reverse forecast with Djakadam in last years Gold Cup.PM Awards General Poster of The Year 2015, 2016, 2017. Probably robbed in other years
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11-01-2017 06:36 PM #85
It's a shame about Don Cossack, he was a very good and generally very reliable horse (apart from the 2015 King George). Did me a few turns at good prices too before he won the Gold Cup.
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11-01-2017 08:10 PM #86
Its a great shame re Kempton, The KG just won't be the same at Sandown. Had a few brilliant Boxing Days on the back of a good win on The KG and one particularly painful one when Barton Bank came down at the last when miles clear.
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12-01-2017 04:03 PM #87
Nothing massively exciting but thought I'd post anyway. I'm a member of a Facebook group that includes a few owners, trainers, grooms etc and there was bit chat about each way bets in the Gold Cup. Many Clouds was mentioned and someone suggested he won't run and Oliver Sherwood replied with the following:
He might....Clouds will either run in the Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham, two weeks Saturday or the Betfair Chase at Newbury two weeks after that, where he goes will be ground dependent. I don't want to run him on heavy ground. After that, and depending how he runs, he will either run in the Gold Cup or in the race at Kelso he won last year. If the Gold Cup continues to cut up and the ground was good or good to soft he might run. I have total respect for Thistlecrack and at this stage he does look the most likely winner but you can't be afraid of one horse...anything can happen. The Grand national is still Clouds number one target.PM Awards General Poster of The Year 2015, 2016, 2017. Probably robbed in other years
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12-01-2017 04:52 PM #88
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Cue Card and Djakadam both entered in the Ryanair at Cheltenham.
For Cue Card Tizzard probably doesn't want to run him against Thistlecrack however I have a feeling although he's won it before, that there may be a few speedier, younger horses who could get the better of him. He is 11 now and the Ryanair is normally a quickly run race and I think he could get outpaced. I would still go Gold Cup with him.
I wouldn't understand Djakadam going for the Ryanair as I feel 3m+ is his trip. I would hate for the GC to cut up into a 6/7 runner affair and it should be the aim for all 3m steeple chasers whether there is a horse like Thistlecrack or not.
Personally wouldn't touch TC at 10/11 as I think there's still questions to ask. Cheltenham is a stiffer jumping test than Kempton and the extra 2 1/2 furlongs up the hill has claimed many a good horse.
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12-01-2017 05:22 PM #89This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
It's easy to be negative as we have ovviously seen a real golden era of staying chasers but how many of the Gold Cup field would beat the likes of Kicking King, Kauto Star, Best Mate, Denman, Imperial Commander, Long Run.... even regular bridesmaids like Neptune Collognes, Exotic Dancer and Harbour Pilot?
Thistlecrack? Cue Card on his day? Not many of the rest imo.
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12-01-2017 05:59 PM #90
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Behind him there's not much by way of class. You've got the proven stayers of Native River, Many Clouds, Djakadam and Don Poli. Middling horses that could perhaps run into a place is everything goes right like Smad Place, Outlander, Valsuer Lido etc. But no real class horses behind TC.
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