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  1. #1801
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    Quote Originally Posted by lord bunberry View Post
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    No, that what makes our country what it is, is diversity and the influence of immigration
    Many things make our country what it is...you may be right that some of that is due to diversity and immigration, assuming of course you are meaning a positive 'what it is'


    However the advert does make an interesting point in that many nationalities mentioned in it are clearly outside of the EU...just like the fact that there was many more non EU immigrants v EU immigrants into the U.K. last year.

    So the EU is clearly not the be all and end all when it comes to immigration as the 173,000 non EU arrivals shows.

    It's also interesting to note that immigration of that scale was unheard of for the 3 decades prior to around 2000. The idea that somehow the nation has to have 250k+ people migrating to the UK every year would have sounded rather daft and maybe even destabilise to most people back then (see Labours deliberate lies re the succession of the Easter European countries to the EU). It seems that the last decade and a half has turned that on its head and now any suggestion that maybe the numbers are too high is seen as some sort of UKIP mentalist.

    AnywAy my point here is that Brexit will not end migration (nor indeed will it wipe almost 10% off Scotlands GDP!) and it's maybe a bit disingenuous to suggest otherwise (be that from the remainder or leave camps).


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  3. #1802
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    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    AnywAy my point here is that Brexit will not ... wipe almost 10% off Scotlands GDP!
    Who is saying this? The Scottish Government's paper released today looks at a fall of between 2.7% and 8.5% of GDP depending on which of the damaging scenarios we end up with.

    Why would anyone deliberately choose to reduce the nation's wealth? Well I guess one might decide to do that if there were other benefits of Brexit. It's just that no one seems to want to say what those benefits might be.

    Government impact assessment here http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00530160.pdf

  4. #1803
    @hibs.net private member ronaldo7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by grunt View Post
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    Who is saying this? The Scottish Government's paper released today looks at a fall of between 2.7% and 8.5% of GDP depending on which of the damaging scenarios we end up with.

    Why would anyone deliberately choose to reduce the nation's wealth? Well I guess one might decide to do that if there were other benefits of Brexit. It's just that no one seems to want to say what those benefits might be.

    Government impact assessment here http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0053/00530160.pdf
    One government has been doing the day job then.

    Impact assessments from the Uk gov will be forthcoming soon.


    SCOTLAND CAN.

  5. #1804
    johnbc70
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    Quote Originally Posted by ronaldo7 View Post
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    One government has been doing the day job then.

    Impact assessments from the Uk gov will be forthcoming soon.
    As an interesting comparison what was equivalent report at the time of Independence?

  6. #1805
    @hibs.net private member ronaldo7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    As an interesting comparison what was equivalent report at the time of Independence?
    Who's Independence?


    SCOTLAND CAN.

  7. #1806
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    As an interesting comparison what was equivalent report at the time of Independence?
    Aw, dont go there mate! 😣

  8. #1807
    johnbc70
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    Aw, dont go there mate! 😣
    Maybe for another time.

  9. #1808
    johnbc70
    Left by mutual consent!
    Quote Originally Posted by ronaldo7 View Post
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    Who's Independence?
    I think you know exactly what I mean. But let's leave it for another day, if and when we get another vote.

  10. #1809
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    Maybe for another time.
    I was being tongue in cheek, obviously its not for me to tell anyone what to post!
    Last edited by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy; 15-01-2018 at 08:10 PM.

  11. #1810
    @hibs.net private member ronaldo7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    I think you know exactly what I mean. But let's leave it for another day, if and when we get another vote.
    I think you'll find yourself somewhere in here. Mate.

    https://t.co/txUWZTPH5H


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  12. #1811
    johnbc70
    Left by mutual consent!
    Quote Originally Posted by ronaldo7 View Post
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    I think you'll find yourself somewhere in here. Mate.

    https://t.co/txUWZTPH5H
    That says nothing of any significance. You seem to like posting links of other people's opinions and playing them as facts. Are the opinions of others not valid because they don't match your view of the world.

  13. #1812
    @hibs.net private member ronaldo7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    I think you know exactly what I mean. But let's leave it for another day, if and when we get another vote.
    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    That says nothing of any significance. You seem to like posting links of other people's opinions and playing them as facts. Are the opinions of others not valid because they don't match your view of the world.
    Whereas, you seem to think people know what you're on about, without you having said anything. Top trolling "Mate".

    Have a nice evening, and when you get up, try and keep this thread on Brexit, theirs a long way to go. We wouldn't want to muddy the waters, would we.


    SCOTLAND CAN.

  14. #1813
    johnbc70
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    Quote Originally Posted by ronaldo7 View Post
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    Whereas, you seem to think people know what you're on about, without you having said anything. Top trolling "Mate".

    Have a nice evening, and when you get up, try and keep this thread on Brexit, theirs a long way to go. We wouldn't want to muddy the waters, would we.
    You claimed to not know what I was on about, yet you did as your link proved that. Strange.

    But I agree let's stick to Brexit, plenty of time for debate if we ever get another Indy vote.

  15. #1814
    @hibs.net private member ronaldo7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    You claimed to not know what I was on about, yet you did as your link proved that. Strange.

    But I agree let's stick to Brexit, plenty of time for debate if we ever get another Indy vote.
    I guessed, after all, it's the only thing Tories go on about these days.


    SCOTLAND CAN.

  16. #1815
    johnbc70
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    Quote Originally Posted by ronaldo7 View Post
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    I guessed, after all, it's the only thing Tories go on about these days.
    Good one, although I suppose guessing is something your party does quite a lot of so sticking to form there.

  17. #1816
    @hibs.net private member ronaldo7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    Good one, although I suppose guessing is something your party does quite a lot of so sticking to form there.
    And my guess was spot on eh. Just like the guess of your true blue credentials.

    And a tory, mentioning other parties guessing is the best one though.
    Last edited by ronaldo7; 15-01-2018 at 09:24 PM.


    SCOTLAND CAN.

  18. #1817
    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    Good one, although I suppose guessing is something your party does quite a lot of so sticking to form there.
    What's your thoughts on the Scottish governments Brexit economic assessments?

  19. #1818
    johnbc70
    Left by mutual consent!
    Quote Originally Posted by stoneyburn hibs View Post
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    What's your thoughts on the Scottish governments Brexit economic assessments?
    Looks grim, wish we had voted remain.

  20. #1819
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    Quote Originally Posted by johnbc70 View Post
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    Looks grim, wish we had voted remain.
    We did.

  21. #1820
    Quote Originally Posted by grunt View Post
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    We did.

    Touche! Guess JohnBC70 has done a Mundell!

  22. #1821
    @hibs.net private member ronaldo7's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by xyz23jc View Post
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    Touche! Guess JohnBC70 has done a Mundell!
    The Secretary of hate for Scotland.

    www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/opinion/deidre-brock-mundell-is-caught-knitting-on-the-job


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  23. #1822
    @hibs.net private member Hiber-nation's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ronaldo7 View Post
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    The Secretary of hate for Scotland.

    http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.co...ing-on-the-job
    Correct link here

    https://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.c...-job-1-4659747

  24. #1823
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    Quote Originally Posted by stoneyburn hibs View Post
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    What's your thoughts on the Scottish governments Brexit economic assessments?
    I skim read the document yesterday (yes I was very bored ).

    Completely and utterly one sided view. Not sure you can take anything seriously when it completely fails to at least point out the other sides argument then present sensible counter positions to persuade the reader why the conclusions reached are sensible and measured.

    I was hoping for a reasoned position and some clear conclusions but it's just a rather poorly presented list of presumed and assumed benefits of the EU without any consideration what so ever that it must be impossible for absolutely every single thing the EU means brings benefit to Scotland.

    Ultimately however for its headline numbers it seems to heavily rely on other work which is then mashed into another special model, grandly titled the Scottish Government Global Econometric Model, to model the models and end up at the -8.5% figure in 2030 largely through an obscure extrapolation of productivity loss.

    An extrapolation that takes some believing, not least because they are based on HM Treasury figures (who along with the BoE /ONS have been rather woeful at predicting productivity numbers one year ahead no matter over a decade. In fact the ONS lowered their annual predictions to 0.2% in October after over estimating for years and then published figures in Jan saying the last quarter had seen productivity growth of 0.9%, the highest since 2011! ).

    The figures then of course assume a reduction in trade openness (type and scale undefined on the paper) when clearly over 10 - 15 years there may well be significant extra opportunity for trade and of course the EU 'free trade' is actually a huge protectionist bloc!

    Finally the paper appears to unquestionably support EU spending like the CAP, probably one of the least productive subsidy regimes ever without ever even briefly contemplating that it may actually be possible to manage such funds much more productively than the EU does.


    It does however yet again show the SNP fully supporting further EU integration in a energy union, banking union, capital markets union and a digitise single market...there really does seem to be no end to the SNP's desire to see the EU centralise everything.

    So safe to say I'm not really convinced by this latest crystal ball effort no matter how grand a name they have given their model.

  25. #1824
    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    I skim read the document yesterday (yes I was very bored ).

    Completely and utterly one sided view. Not sure you can take anything seriously when it completely fails to at least point out the other sides argument then present sensible counter positions to persuade the reader why the conclusions reached are sensible and measured.

    I was hoping for a reasoned position and some clear conclusions but it's just a rather poorly presented list of presumed and assumed benefits of the EU without any consideration what so ever that it must be impossible for absolutely every single thing the EU means brings benefit to Scotland.

    Ultimately however for its headline numbers it seems to heavily rely on other work which is then mashed into another special model, grandly titled the Scottish Government Global Econometric Model, to model the models and end up at the -8.5% figure in 2030 largely through an obscure extrapolation of productivity loss.

    An extrapolation that takes some believing, not least because they are based on HM Treasury figures (who along with the BoE /ONS have been rather woeful at predicting productivity numbers one year ahead no matter over a decade. In fact the ONS lowered their annual predictions to 0.2% in October after over estimating for years and then published figures in Jan saying the last quarter had seen productivity growth of 0.9%, the highest since 2011! ).

    The figures then of course assume a reduction in trade openness (type and scale undefined on the paper) when clearly over 10 - 15 years there may well be significant extra opportunity for trade and of course the EU 'free trade' is actually a huge protectionist bloc!

    Finally the paper appears to unquestionably support EU spending like the CAP, probably one of the least productive subsidy regimes ever without ever even briefly contemplating that it may actually be possible to manage such funds much more productively than the EU does.


    It does however yet again show the SNP fully supporting further EU integration in a energy union, banking union, capital markets union and a digitise single market...there really does seem to be no end to the SNP's desire to see the EU centralise everything.

    So safe to say I'm not really convinced by this latest crystal ball effort no matter how grand a name they have given their model.
    Thatís a very detailed and damming summary for a skim-read.

  26. #1825
    Quote Originally Posted by RyeSloan View Post
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    I skim read the document yesterday (yes I was very bored ).

    Completely and utterly one sided view. Not sure you can take anything seriously when it completely fails to at least point out the other sides argument then present sensible counter positions to persuade the reader why the conclusions reached are sensible and measured.

    I was hoping for a reasoned position and some clear conclusions but it's just a rather poorly presented list of presumed and assumed benefits of the EU without any consideration what so ever that it must be impossible for absolutely every single thing the EU means brings benefit to Scotland.

    Ultimately however for its headline numbers it seems to heavily rely on other work which is then mashed into another special model, grandly titled the Scottish Government Global Econometric Model, to model the models and end up at the -8.5% figure in 2030 largely through an obscure extrapolation of productivity loss.

    An extrapolation that takes some believing, not least because they are based on HM Treasury figures (who along with the BoE /ONS have been rather woeful at predicting productivity numbers one year ahead no matter over a decade. In fact the ONS lowered their annual predictions to 0.2% in October after over estimating for years and then published figures in Jan saying the last quarter had seen productivity growth of 0.9%, the highest since 2011! ).

    The figures then of course assume a reduction in trade openness (type and scale undefined on the paper) when clearly over 10 - 15 years there may well be significant extra opportunity for trade and of course the EU 'free trade' is actually a huge protectionist bloc!

    Finally the paper appears to unquestionably support EU spending like the CAP, probably one of the least productive subsidy regimes ever without ever even briefly contemplating that it may actually be possible to manage such funds much more productively than the EU does.


    It does however yet again show the SNP fully supporting further EU integration in a energy union, banking union, capital markets union and a digitise single market...there really does seem to be no end to the SNP's desire to see the EU centralise everything.

    So safe to say I'm not really convinced by this latest crystal ball effort no matter how grand a name they have given their model.
    Out of interest, has anyone produced an economic assessment that shows the positives of Brexit? One that tells us how these opportunities we always hear about are going to grow our economy?

  27. #1826
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Grieves View Post
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    Out of interest, has anyone produced an economic assessment that shows the positives of Brexit? One that tells us how these opportunities we always hear about are going to grow our economy?
    Dont think so, they are probably too hypothetical.

  28. #1827
    @hibs.net private member Moulin Yarns's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Grieves View Post
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    Out of interest, has anyone produced an economic assessment that shows the positives of Brexit? One that tells us how these opportunities we always hear about are going to grow our economy?
    If I remember rightly it was written on the side of a bus, something about £350m and the NHS.
    #Persevered
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  29. #1828
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Grieves View Post
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    Out of interest, has anyone produced an economic assessment that shows the positives of Brexit? One that tells us how these opportunities we always hear about are going to grow our economy?
    The problem with any assessment is the models used. Economic predictions are inherently risky and very often wrong.

    A few short articles that point this out in general and with a Brexit slant and why such papers and particularly the projected numbers like the SG has just produced should be taken with a huge dose of salt.


    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.t...angerous-place


    https://themarketmogul.com/problem-economic-models/

    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/theco...e-market-84171

  30. #1829
    Private Members Prediction League Winner Hibrandenburg's Avatar
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  31. #1830
    Coaching Staff JimBHibees's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hibrandenburg View Post
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    Very good article and further emphasises how depressing the brexit vote was.

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