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  1. #1
    @hibs.net private member Hibbyradge's Avatar
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    Brexit - what will happen next

    This was posted on my FB wall.

    The astute among you will have noticed that I declined to become involved in most of the hand wringing and wailing yesterday. I'm not going to start today, but I did realise yesterday that there is a need to clear the air.

    I don't have many friends who voted Leave. The ones who did had slightly elevated reasons for their vote - they were genuinely concerned about democratic concepts. My posts were public, however, so like most people who publicly stated we should Remain, throughout the campaign I saw a litany of threats, abuse and claims that I was either some sort of elitist schill planting lies and deception or just speaking only for myself and should have my swimming pool privilege curtailed.

    The campaign is now concluded and Leave has won. I accept the result, and have no intention of arguing that it was unfair, should be run again, or that despite the vote we should do anything else other than Leave.

    Can I therefore ask those of you that made those accusations during this campaign to read the following in the frank and honest way it is written. I engaged with two posts yesterday, and despite the end of the campaign the accusations and abuse continue. So please let's put this to bed and move on:

    1) The £350 million actually is a lie. It really doesn't exist. All the people who told you that, me included, weren't lying to you, it really isn't there. You can't therefore spend it, no matter how many 38 degrees petitions you sign. The reason Brexit leaders have suddenly gone quiet on it is because they were lying.

    2) Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is a real thing, and to leave the EU we are actually going to have to invoke it. It actually is a very punitive piece of law meant to discourage countries from leaving. We cannot renegotiate it. The reason Cameron wouldn't invoke it yesterday, and now Johnson, Redwood and Hannan are saying we need time today is because it's absolutely terrible for the British economy. When Gove, Farage and Johnson told you repeatedly that we would get an even better deal out of the EU they were lying. We don't get to negotiate and the EU is going to offer us something much worse and we will have to accept it. We already had the best deal available. Honestly.

    3) We do honestly need those immigrants. We need their work and their tax. Hannan last night was claiming this referendum was never about immigration. Johnson yesterday was saying that we couldn't really have a cap on immigration. Large employers were on the phone to their MPs yesterday telling them that no immigration caps are going to be acceptable. Because, and I really respectfully understand that some of you really won't like this, our immigration 'challenge' isn't going to be solved by leaving the EU. On balance, the vote itself will have no impact at all. Honestly. Judging by social media, though, many EU citizens might leave because they are worried by the campaign and the atmosphere. They are also worried that the money they are earning just got effectively cut by 11%. If you see a fall in the immigration numbers, that will be the reason; that we're seen as a less hospitable nation that isn't a great place to earn money. You won't see huge cuts to immigration because of your vote. Honestly.

    4) those warnings you heard about the economy that were labelled 'Project Fear'. Inflation will rise - you will see this at the garage this week. The pound has lost 11% of its value. If you have a private pension plan it is worth less today - as much as 27% less. Billions of pounds have already been lost out of the U.K. Economy. More will go in the next seven years before we even get close to where we already were. We might, on balance, avoid a full blown recession. This will be achieved by gifting banks in excess of £250 billion we won't ever get back. People are going to lose their jobs. Areas of the country like Cornwall, the North East, East Anglia that relied on EU subsidies are in very deep trouble. Some of it got hyped up - Osborne's fake budget was stupid, it's why I didn't post it, but your taxes will have to rise to pay for all the fall out. We will have to borrow more money or shut more services. Economically, things will be much worse in the short term and slightly worse in the long term. And when you see a bounce in the value of sterling and the stock market next week and it's hailed as the world realising Britain is great; that's not true either. We are holding a garage sale of our assets and just announced a two for one offer. Economists and experts were right. Michael Gove was wrong.

    I know you genuinely believed I and others were lying or seeking to serve our own interests, but I honestly wasn't.

    I'm not a genius or a psychic. I read a lot and try and get information from good sources. That doesn't make me better than you or cleverer than you, and offering you my opinion after I've done that isn't meant to be patronising. I completely understand that sometimes it reads like it is, because I get frustrated when things I know to be correct are answered by comments like "never heard of article 50, this vote isn't about that'.

    I honestly hope you can make this work. I genuinely find the back pedalling from Brexit deeply distasteful and dishonest; people voted to Leave and the U.K. should leave. But let's never have another vote held in an atmosphere like this ever again.

    There, I've said everything I have to say about it.

    Now, about those music venues.......

  2. #2
    Quote Originally Posted by Hibbyradge View Post
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    This was posted on my FB wall.

    The astute among you will have noticed that I declined to become involved in most of the hand wringing and wailing yesterday. I'm not going to start today, but I did realise yesterday that there is a need to clear the air.

    I don't have many friends who voted Leave. The ones who did had slightly elevated reasons for their vote - they were genuinely concerned about democratic concepts. My posts were public, however, so like most people who publicly stated we should Remain, throughout the campaign I saw a litany of threats, abuse and claims that I was either some sort of elitist schill planting lies and deception or just speaking only for myself and should have my swimming pool privilege curtailed.

    The campaign is now concluded and Leave has won. I accept the result, and have no intention of arguing that it was unfair, should be run again, or that despite the vote we should do anything else other than Leave.

    Can I therefore ask those of you that made those accusations during this campaign to read the following in the frank and honest way it is written. I engaged with two posts yesterday, and despite the end of the campaign the accusations and abuse continue. So please let's put this to bed and move on:

    1) The £350 million actually is a lie. It really doesn't exist. All the people who told you that, me included, weren't lying to you, it really isn't there. You can't therefore spend it, no matter how many 38 degrees petitions you sign. The reason Brexit leaders have suddenly gone quiet on it is because they were lying.

    2) Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty is a real thing, and to leave the EU we are actually going to have to invoke it. It actually is a very punitive piece of law meant to discourage countries from leaving. We cannot renegotiate it. The reason Cameron wouldn't invoke it yesterday, and now Johnson, Redwood and Hannan are saying we need time today is because it's absolutely terrible for the British economy. When Gove, Farage and Johnson told you repeatedly that we would get an even better deal out of the EU they were lying. We don't get to negotiate and the EU is going to offer us something much worse and we will have to accept it. We already had the best deal available. Honestly.

    3) We do honestly need those immigrants. We need their work and their tax. Hannan last night was claiming this referendum was never about immigration. Johnson yesterday was saying that we couldn't really have a cap on immigration. Large employers were on the phone to their MPs yesterday telling them that no immigration caps are going to be acceptable. Because, and I really respectfully understand that some of you really won't like this, our immigration 'challenge' isn't going to be solved by leaving the EU. On balance, the vote itself will have no impact at all. Honestly. Judging by social media, though, many EU citizens might leave because they are worried by the campaign and the atmosphere. They are also worried that the money they are earning just got effectively cut by 11%. If you see a fall in the immigration numbers, that will be the reason; that we're seen as a less hospitable nation that isn't a great place to earn money. You won't see huge cuts to immigration because of your vote. Honestly.

    4) those warnings you heard about the economy that were labelled 'Project Fear'. Inflation will rise - you will see this at the garage this week. The pound has lost 11% of its value. If you have a private pension plan it is worth less today - as much as 27% less. Billions of pounds have already been lost out of the U.K. Economy. More will go in the next seven years before we even get close to where we already were. We might, on balance, avoid a full blown recession. This will be achieved by gifting banks in excess of £250 billion we won't ever get back. People are going to lose their jobs. Areas of the country like Cornwall, the North East, East Anglia that relied on EU subsidies are in very deep trouble. Some of it got hyped up - Osborne's fake budget was stupid, it's why I didn't post it, but your taxes will have to rise to pay for all the fall out. We will have to borrow more money or shut more services. Economically, things will be much worse in the short term and slightly worse in the long term. And when you see a bounce in the value of sterling and the stock market next week and it's hailed as the world realising Britain is great; that's not true either. We are holding a garage sale of our assets and just announced a two for one offer. Economists and experts were right. Michael Gove was wrong.

    I know you genuinely believed I and others were lying or seeking to serve our own interests, but I honestly wasn't.

    I'm not a genius or a psychic. I read a lot and try and get information from good sources. That doesn't make me better than you or cleverer than you, and offering you my opinion after I've done that isn't meant to be patronising. I completely understand that sometimes it reads like it is, because I get frustrated when things I know to be correct are answered by comments like "never heard of article 50, this vote isn't about that'.

    I honestly hope you can make this work. I genuinely find the back pedalling from Brexit deeply distasteful and dishonest; people voted to Leave and the U.K. should leave. But let's never have another vote held in an atmosphere like this ever again.

    There, I've said everything I have to say about it.

    Now, about those music venues.......

    I think that this is a brilliant post. Would have expected a reply or two by now to the points you are raising.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kavinho View Post
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    I think that this is a brilliant post. Would have expected a reply or two by now to the points you are raising.
    I thought i heard on the news tonight the stock market has recovered its value? Might have misheard

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    I thought i heard on the news tonight the stock market has recovered its value? Might have misheard
    Do you honestly think that the stock market revolves around the UK economy?

    If the stock market is doing well, but the pound remains weak. Then Brussels will have even less motive to negotiate a single market deal with the UK Government.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by High-On-Hibs View Post
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    Do you honestly think that the stock market revolves around the UK economy?

    If the stock market is doing well, but the pound remains weak. Then Brussels will have even less motive to negotiate a single market deal with the UK Government.
    Just throwing it in there - i dont know.

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by High-On-Hibs View Post
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    Do you honestly think that the stock market revolves around the UK economy?

    If the stock market is doing well, but the pound remains weak. Then Brussels will have even less motive to negotiate a single market deal with the UK Government.
    The big talking on trade deals will be done by the Germans, French and the Dutch, Juncker and his clan will have to take a wide berth, they aint fit for purpose.

  7. #7
    @hibs.net private member steakbake's Avatar
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    Knock down prices makes a busy market...

  8. #8
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    On another note. The post that the OP quoted is longer than one paragraph. The Be-leavers struggle with anything longer than a sentence. That's why cheap empty slogans were enough to sway them.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by High-On-Hibs View Post
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    On another note. The post that the OP quoted is longer than one paragraph. The Be-leavers struggle with anything longer than a sentence. That's why cheap empty slogans were enough to sway them.
    Oh man your trolling is getting worse...which is an impressive feat.

    It's interesting that you are not against a Scottish currency knowing that such a move could result in extreme volatility and a huge transition period, possibly up to 15 years before the full benefits could be realised (if at all as it would be a rocky road) as well as wider Scottish independence which would involve Scotland undoing almost 300 years of political and monetary union with our biggest trading partner and the only country we have a land border with. Yet dismiss any claims that the UK disentangling itself from the EU and developing its own trade and immigration policies and everything else over time with the wider world is some sort of mentalism that is doomed to fail.

    Seems to me that both Leave and Yes promote some flavour of Independence but your viewpoint appears to be that one is the best idea ever and the other sheer folly. Yet both require potential short to medium pain and a huge amount of negotiation and realignment of fiscal policies, monetary policies, people and economies.

    Such a stance is some what puzzling..especially when you consider that the EU has a known ambition for ever more political union, so a mandate to continue to centralise power yet Westminster has been steadily devolving power. You would think someone that believes so strongly in 'Independence' would see the EU as the biggest threat to self determination not Westminster.

    If you can prevent yourself from posting more trolling it would be interesting (mildly at least ;-)) to understand why that is the case.

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by SiMar View Post
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    Oh man your trolling is getting worse...which is an impressive feat.

    It's interesting that you are not against a Scottish currency knowing that such a move could result in extreme volatility and a huge transition period, possibly up to 15 years before the full benefits could be realised (if at all as it would be a rocky road) as well as wider Scottish independence which would involve Scotland undoing almost 300 years of political and monetary union with our biggest trading partner and the only country we have a land border with. Yet dismiss any claims that the UK disentangling itself from the EU and developing its own trade and immigration policies and everything else over time with the wider world is some sort of mentalism that is doomed to fail.

    Seems to me that both Leave and Yes promote some flavour of Independence but your viewpoint appears to be that one is the best idea ever and the other sheer folly. Yet both require potential short to medium pain and a huge amount of negotiation and realignment of fiscal policies, monetary policies, people and economies.

    Such a stance is some what puzzling..especially when you consider that the EU has a known ambition for ever more political union, so a mandate to continue to centralise power yet Westminster has been steadily devolving power. You would think someone that believes so strongly in 'Independence' would see the EU as the biggest threat to self determination not Westminster.

    If you can prevent yourself from posting more trolling it would be interesting (mildly at least ;-)) to understand why that is the case.
    You talk about volatility in the event of Scotland having it's own currency. If you want the perfect example of volatility right now, look no further than the British Pound which is now pinning all it's hopes on the bubble of the housing market. Just wait until that implodes.

    The UK is our largest trading partner (within the European Union). A UK without access to the single market will not be our largest trading partner, they couldn't possibly be. The vast majority of trade that goes on between Scotland and the rest of the UK comes from imported stock through the single market.

    The UK can not develop it's own trade and immigration policies, as they both go hand in hand. You can't have open trade with the border shutters up. The UK Government knows this, which is why they're bricking themselves. They know they have no choice but to clamp down on immigration due to political demand. But they also know the detrimental effects this will have on trade and the overall UK Economy.

    There is nothing puzzling about my stance at all. I'm not sure if you're being intentionally naive or not. But your position on Scotland somehow being better off in a UK with closed borders and no access to the single market because of 300 years of "friendship" holds no weight whatsoever.

  11. #11
    There is a possibility that a rerun of the referendum will occur. The majority of MPs don't want an exit, and I suspect that most European leaders don't either, despite the statements now being made. Once passions have cooled they'll get down to calculation of how to achieve their goal.

    The whole thing was bizarre. A referendum is normally held to gain validation for change. This one was designed to de-fang internal Tory opposition and UKIP and the political elite had given no consideration to the consequences of defeat. Given the relatively close result in percentages and the lack of an exit plan prior to the vote, I can see another vote being called with people being asked to reconsider once there's an definite alternative actually laid out.

    Our vote will have an effect on other countries. Is the EU (in particular the Eurozone) to be a nation with a central government or an exercise in co-operation between independent nations? I think the politicians in Brussels would like the former. I'm not sure that they'll have general support from the people they want to rule.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by High-On-Hibs View Post
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    You talk about volatility in the event of Scotland having it's own currency. If you want the perfect example of volatility right now, look no further than the British Pound which is now pinning all it's hopes on the bubble of the housing market. Just wait until that implodes. The UK is our largest trading partner (within the European Union). A UK without access to the single market will not be our largest trading partner, they couldn't possibly be. The vast majority of trade that goes on between Scotland and the rest of the UK comes from imported stock through the single market. The UK can not develop it's own trade and immigration policies, as they both go hand in hand. You can't have open trade with the border shutters up. The UK Government knows this, which is why they're bricking themselves. They know they have no choice but to clamp down on immigration due to political demand. But they also know the detrimental effects this will have on trade and the overall UK Economy. There is nothing puzzling about my stance at all. I'm not sure if you're being intentionally naive or not. But your position on Scotland somehow being better off in a UK with closed borders and no access to the single market because of 300 years of "friendship" holds no weight whatsoever.
    Thanks for the response but you didn't answer the question at all apart form saying there is nothing puzzling about your stance...in your opinion clearly not but I was interested in some reasons as to why not.

    Let's be clear on on a few things here.

    The U.K. WILL have access to the single market through what ever agreement is reached. It's quite likely that some sort of tariff be that a set payment or a tariff on goods will be required. The EU imports huge amounts of goods from outwith the single market now the UK would be in no different a position to those countries.

    The borders will also not be closed. There will be a immigration policy that will allow the UK to limit or expand the numbers as it sees fit but using hyperbole like 'closed borders' is nonsense. Sure the numbers might be lower (they might not be) but maybe the mix might be better in terms of education and what they bring to the economy. There is plenty of options, zero immigration is not one of them.

    Anyway I asked you to at least try and explain how you could support a decade or more of disruption to Scotland and its economy but be so clear on your dislike of the U.K. essentially seeking independence from the EU but it looks like we will just leave it there as I wasn't overly interested in hyperbole or dismissing the intrinsic links Scotland has with rUK as mere friendship..

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by High-On-Hibs View Post
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    You talk about volatility in the event of Scotland having it's own currency. If you want the perfect example of volatility right now, look no further than the British Pound which is now pinning all it's hopes on the bubble of the housing market. Just wait until that implodes.

    The UK is our largest trading partner (within the European Union). A UK without access to the single market will not be our largest trading partner, they couldn't possibly be. The vast majority of trade that goes on between Scotland and the rest of the UK comes from imported stock through the single market.

    The UK can not develop it's own trade and immigration policies, as they both go hand in hand. You can't have open trade with the border shutters up. The UK Government knows this, which is why they're bricking themselves. They know they have no choice but to clamp down on immigration due to political demand. But they also know the detrimental effects this will have on trade and the overall UK Economy.

    There is nothing puzzling about my stance at all. I'm not sure if you're being intentionally naive or not. But your position on Scotland somehow being better off in a UK with closed borders and no access to the single market because of 300 years of "friendship" holds no weight whatsoever.
    Ok, Scotland export more to England than the entire EU, cutting off yer nose to spite yer face likes. We would pay tariffs to England, our biggest trade partner, have you never thought about that scenario if we went independent?

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by High-On-Hibs View Post
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    On another note. The post that the OP quoted is longer than one paragraph. The Be-leavers struggle with anything longer than a sentence. That's why cheap empty slogans were enough to sway them.
    A spectacularly ignorant post, regardless of which way you voted (or not).

  15. #15
    @hibs.net private member Pete's Avatar
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    What will happen next?

    The BOE say that interest rates will be cut, which totally contradicts what George Osborne said would happen if we voted to leave.

    Happy days for those of us with mortgages. Well, happy days if you still have a job in a few months to pay for it. The leave campaign also said that tens of thousands of jobs would go if we left the EU so...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
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    The leave campaign also said that tens of thousands of jobs would go if we left the EU so...
    The leave campaign said this?

  17. #17
    @hibs.net private member Pete's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by grunt View Post
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    The leave campaign said this?
    Sorry, I meant remain. Not concentrating.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pete View Post
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    Sorry, I meant remain. Not concentrating.
    That's ok. I don't think anyone was concentrating during the referendum campaign.

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    @hibs.net private member Diclonius's Avatar
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    Theresa May openly admitting she'll use the future of EU Citizens in the UK as a pawn in negotiations for access to the single market. Absolutely disgusting.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RagingReality View Post
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    Theresa May openly admitting she'll use the future of EU Citizens in the UK as a pawn in negotiations for access to the single market. Absolutely disgusting.
    Its all just posturing pre negotiation.

    Its absolutely our politicians job now to get the uk the best possible deal - this is all just part of that.

  21. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    Its all just posturing pre negotiation.

    Its absolutely our politicians job now to get the uk the best possible deal - this is all just part of that.
    You mean, all the fear voiced by remainers is coming true. Whad hae thunk it!!!?
    #Persevered
    Scotland can be a beacon, within these islands and beyond, for a socially just and sustainable society. Whilst there are many priorities which will require independence, there is also much that can and must be done now by the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Golden Fleece View Post
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    You mean, all the fear voiced by remainers is coming true. Whad hae thunk it!!!?
    I dont follow?

  23. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    Its all just posturing pre negotiation.

    Its absolutely our politicians job now to get the uk the best possible deal - this is all just part of that.
    Posturing?
    Letting residents of our country feel their future here is in doubt as part of political bargaining is downright nasty.
    Every gimmick hungry yob,
    Digging gold from rock and roll
    Grabs the mic to tell us,
    He'll die before he's sold.

  24. #24
    @hibs.net private member Golden Fleece's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy View Post
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    I dont follow?
    Quote Originally Posted by marinello59 View Post
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    Posturing?
    Letting residents of our country feel their future here is in doubt as part of political bargaining is downright nasty.
    That answers your question.
    #Persevered
    Scotland can be a beacon, within these islands and beyond, for a socially just and sustainable society. Whilst there are many priorities which will require independence, there is also much that can and must be done now by the Scottish Parliament and the Scottish Government.

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    Quote Originally Posted by marinello59 View Post
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    Posturing?
    Letting residents of our country feel their future here is in doubt as part of political bargaining is downright nasty.
    Possibly, but it was always going to be thus. The government has a duty to the whole country now to be fierce negotiators

    Giving anything away pre negotiation is daft.

    Plus, thwir futures here are in doubt, thats just the reality. Juat as brits abroad future isnin doubt.

    Personally i dont see a cat in hell's chance of those already here not being allowed to stay, but as of two years from now, they prob wobnt have that right.
    Last edited by SouthsideHarp_Bhoy; 04-07-2016 at 10:35 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by RagingReality View Post
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    Theresa May openly admitting she'll use the future of EU Citizens in the UK as a pawn in negotiations for access to the single market. Absolutely disgusting.
    She won't though. Not unless she wants to piss off thousands of Brits abroad.

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    Whatever the Tories do about residency and related issues, they'll just change the electoral franchise to protect their own interests afterwards.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Future17 View Post
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    Whatever the Tories do about residency and related issues, they'll just change the electoral franchise to protect their own interests afterwards.
    How might they do that?

    You do know current electoral boundaries favour the labour party?

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    Torys do what's best for Torys and their pals. The rest of us are plebs and what happens to us doesn't matter.
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