Qatar match could upset Scotland's World Cup ambitions
Mark Walker
Saturday 11 April 2015
Scottish Football Association chiefs may have scored a spectacular World Cup own goal by agreeing to play Qatar in a friendly.
Scotland will face the Gulf nation at Easter Road in June before they face Ireland in a crucial Euro 2016 encounter in Dublin.
But by facing Qatar, Scotland may have shot themselves in the foot when it comes to the World Cup 2018 qualifying draw in Russia in July.
Scotland are currently on the brink of securing the last place in Pot Two of seeds, which would be a huge boost for Gordon Strachan's side.
However, because of the complicated way FIFA's World Rankings work, by agreeing to face Qatar - a nation currently ranked 99th by world football's governing body, even a win against the oil-rich country could work against Scotland when it comes to Rankings points because of both their lowly position and being a member of the Asian Football Confederation, which isn't ranked as highly as UEFA nations.
And it would mean Scotland sliding into Pot Three for the July 25 draw, which will be held in Konstantinovsky Palace in St Petersburg.
If Scotland had decided not to take the fixture against Qatar - a country where an SFA delegation of chief executive Stewart Regan, president Campbell Ogilvie and vice-president Rod Petrie visited on a fact-finding mission in February - they would have known that a victory over Ireland in the Aviva Stadium would have guaranteed them a Pot Two place.
The rankings are based on the last four years' results, with results in the past 12 months counting for more than those in the preceding years and points are averaged out according to the number of matches played in a year.
It would mean that even a win over Qatar would affect Scotland's average points in the Rankings because of the relatively low points a win would collect. A draw or defeat to the World Cup 2022 hosts in Edinburgh would end all hopes of that Pot Two place.
Respected football statistical prediction site We Global Football summed up the SFA's decision to play the friendly against Qatar by commenting: "While Scotland has been doing OK in qualifying, they've completely screwed the pooch when it comes to scheduling.
"Arranging a friendly with Qatar will only hurt them further. They had a chance to get into Pot 2, but they've failed to do the things necessary to get there. Even still, if they win at Ireland and didn't play Qatar, they should have been able to get in."
FIFA will use their Rankings for July 2015 to decide seeds. Pots will be split into nine teams per pot, apart for smaller pots near the bottom end of the seeding. The SFA declined to comment on the matter last night.
Someone needs to be sacked for this
Results 1 to 18 of 18
Thread: Scotland V Qatar (SFA ****** UP)
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22-05-2015 11:20 AM #1
Scotland V Qatar (SFA ****** UP)
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22-05-2015 11:23 AM #2
Im sure the money the SFA boys receive will make them not care.
Hundreds of deaths linked to them using slave labour to build world cup stadiums so the SFA invite them over for a game which hurts our rankings. Only in Scotland could that happen.
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22-05-2015 11:24 AM #4
Wow, in the realms of stupidity, the Scottish Football Authorities are very highly ranked.
I already felt uncomfortable playing them in the first place, now this.
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22-05-2015 11:39 AM #6
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Did Wales not do that before the pots were drawn for the last World Cup by arranging a friendly against Brazil which caused them to drop into pot 4 against us?
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22-05-2015 11:48 AM #7
There's a lot more to this than meets the eye. All this sucking up to Qatar must have an end game, I think the SFA are looking to replace Hampden and the Qataries sure have the cash to help out, not to mention a few brand new stadiums they will have no use for after the world cup. This friendly is not going to attract many fans and will hardly be a test for Scotland .. you would hope
Now that it also looks like it could screw up our world cup seeding there just has to be something more to this.
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22-05-2015 12:06 PM #8This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
To be honest if we expect the above trio to act as our delegation for anything whatsoever then we should only expect it to be royally f****d up.
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22-05-2015 01:00 PM #10
we should never be playing Qatar anyway, i get more and more ashamed of the football authorities in this country by the day
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22-05-2015 01:29 PM #12
Friendlies shouldn't count toward the rankings in the first place, but given that they do....
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22-05-2015 02:15 PM #13
As some people have already said, there's something very dodgy about the SFA and Qatar cushty relationship....
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22-05-2015 02:34 PM #14
One of the STV boys on twitter was tweeting the SFA when it was rumoured that we would be playing NI and Qatar explaining the consequences. He drafted a couple of articles on it, but I guess they did not listen to him.
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22-05-2015 02:36 PM #15
This has been a live issue on the TAMB for months now.
TBF Not sure how much difference pots make anyway (unless you are top).
Our last campaign had
Belgium top the group (3rd seed)
Croatia (1st seed)
Serbia (2nd seed)
With Scotland beating the top seed twice yet losing twice to the bottom seed Wales.
So it's mor about who you draw, as opposed to what pot.
Wales was the worst draw for us from the bottom pot, Belgium was the toughest from pot 3.
Where as Croatia was a great draw as top seed.
Look at this campaign, us, Ireland and Poland (and Germany) battling it out.
And we were 4th seed!
J
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22-05-2015 05:27 PM #18This quote is hidden because you are ignoring this member. Show Quote
Hes found his real home at the SFA though.
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