A man in a pub once told me...

**LustForLeith** · 18-04-2008 01:04 PM

That 2 yo horses recreate form better than any other kind (2 yo just run over flat as well). If a 2yo finishes 1st of 2nd then statistically it's got a 48% chance of winning it's next race.

To help, get a paper (say The SUn cause it's a good paper! Tin hat on) Look at the racing page and 2yo races. Concentrate on the top two horses quote on the betting and if either one of those horses have finished 1st within the last 30 days, then back it. If none have finsihes 1st but one second, then back that one. If the two favourites in a 2yo races haven't won or come second in their last race, then look elsewhere!

Apparently during the course of a flat season 2yo horses develope form at the height of summer becuase the ground is firmer and they have had a few races under their belt and a few wins. last summers wet wether put paid to it, but may be a good summer so more winners this year.

Kept an eye out on this and Wednesday the two horses that would have fallen into this catogory won, while yesterdays selection came third. Odds are obviously small but if you're hitting a winner on average every second race then theres scope for profit.

Going to try and add to this each day to see how succesful it is and maybe point folk to tips.

So todays tip would be ...

2.00 Thirsk - Bahamian Babe

(Bet it comes nowhere!)

**LustForLeith** · 18-04-2008 01:21 PM

Originally Posted by LustForLeith

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That 2 yo horses recreate form better than any other kind (2 yo just run over flat as well). If a 2yo finishes 1st of 2nd then statistically it's got a 48% chance of winning it's next race.

To help, get a paper (say The SUn cause it's a good paper! Tin hat on) Look at the racing page and 2yo races. Concentrate on the top two horses quote on the betting and if either one of those horses have finished 1st within the last 30 days, then back it. If none have finsihes 1st but one second, then back that one. If the two favourites in a 2yo races haven't won or come second in their last race, then look elsewhere!

Apparently during the course of a flat season 2yo horses develope form at the height of summer becuase the ground is firmer and they have had a few races under their belt and a few wins. last summers wet wether put paid to it, but may be a good summer so more winners this year.

Kept an eye out on this and Wednesday the two horses that would have fallen into this catogory won, while yesterdays selection came third. Odds are obviously small but if you're hitting a winner on average every second race then theres scope for profit.

Going to try and add to this each day to see how succesful it is and maybe point folk to tips.

So todays tip would be ...

2.00 Thirsk - Bahamian Babe

(Bet it comes nowhere!)

Never realised the time when I was posting this. Sorry!

(Won at 4/6!)

**LustForLeith** · 19-04-2008 10:13 AM

5.30 Nottingham - Raggle Taggle

Nowhere! Better luck next time

**LustForLeith** · 21-04-2008 07:56 AM

5.55 Win - Miss Chamanda

**Ally** · 21-04-2008 12:29 PM

2:10 Pontefract. Transcentral?

Reckon we should have a proper horse betting thread on here. I can't be the only one who regularly has a punt?

Edit: Never in it.

**LustForLeith** · 21-04-2008 01:22 PM

Originally Posted by Ally®

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2:10 Pontefract. Transcentral?

Reckon we should have a proper horse betting thread on here. I can't be the only one who regularly has a punt?

Edit: Never in it.

Good shout!

**Ally** · 21-04-2008 05:36 PM

Originally Posted by LustForLeith

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5.55 Win - Miss Chamanda

Wins by 1 1/4 at 9/4.

If anyone is looking I think the rank outsider Shayera in the next at windsor has a chance e/w. 50/1 just now.

Into 33s now..

**Ally** · 21-04-2008 06:05 PM

We'll just forget about that one.

**LustForLeith** · 21-04-2008 08:59 PM

Originally Posted by LustForLeith

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5.55 Win - Miss Chamanda

9/4, happy with that!

**Ally** · 22-04-2008 01:49 PM

Today I'm having a little double on Copperbottomed and Possol. Also got a small e/w on heroic fool in the same race as copperbottomed. Just starting at Folkestone.

**Ally** · 22-04-2008 01:52 PM

Well that's them beat!

**~~Toaods~~** · 22-04-2008 06:50 PM

My mate is big on the horses and he has a wee 'rule of thumb' for diving into a two year old......

must have won by up to three lengths but the third needs to be at least a further 8 back. That way the second doesn't distort the performance and allows for a wise jockey reducing the gap from the front.

**LustForLeith** · 23-04-2008 07:44 AM

Nothing matches criteria today. A wise man once said sometimes the best bet you make is when you don't just bet on anything..!

**Mike777** · 23-04-2008 05:41 PM

i gave up on the horses when i was 17, biggest win i had was £140 from a £1.40 doubles and treble (my usual bet)
it was a horse called Johannesburg that won the last race,

**LustForLeith** · 24-04-2008 07:51 AM

Nothing today again

**Ally** · 24-04-2008 01:56 PM

First horse of the day for me, Coach Lane, wins. I had him at 10/1. Nice.

**LustForLeith** · 25-04-2008 07:52 AM

Nothing again today. As the season progresses more 2yo races and more 2yo hitting form...hopefully!

**Ally** · 25-04-2008 12:26 PM

Ahh I'm an idiot. Was going to back commander cave in the first, had it marked down last night then changed my mind to traphalgar at the last minute.

**~~Toaods~~** · 25-04-2008 09:46 PM

Originally Posted by Toaods

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My mate is big on the horses and he has a wee 'rule of thumb' for diving into a two year old......

must have won by up to three lengths but the third needs to be at least a further 8 back. That way the second doesn't distort the performance and allows for a wise jockey reducing the gap from the front.

ach....I forgot the most important thing.........only on a 5f race...

**creebo1875** · 26-04-2008 09:10 AM

Originally Posted by Ally®

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Ahh I'm an idiot. Was going to back commander cave in the first, had it marked down last night then changed my mind to traphalgar at the last minute.

You broke the first rule of gambling, Always stick with your first choice.

Oh and rob roy for a shout today at 3.55 at sandown. Sir Michael stoutes only horse in the meet and looking no bad with a good jockey on board.

**LustForLeith** · 26-04-2008 12:27 PM

Finally found two horses that meet my criteria (2yo, first two in betting in a morning paper, ran in the alst 30 days and finished in the top two)

Bad news is there both in the same race!

So - 4.50 Ripon

Woteva and also Caranbola

Also Revesre Forcast

Caranbola won at 9/2!

**Ally** · 26-04-2008 04:17 PM

Caranbola won.

Had a not bad day. Lost a bit on commander kev in the 1.50 but changed my mind from mahogany blaze in the 2.40 to andreas and ended up in profit for the day. Apologies if you took that tip lust for leith!

**LustForLeith** · 26-04-2008 06:23 PM

Originally Posted by Ally®

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Caranbola won.

Had a not bad day. Lost a bit on commander kev in the 1.50 but changed my mind from mahogany blaze in the 2.40 to andreas and ended up in profit for the day. Apologies if you took that tip lust for leith!

Never mate, took about every other race I think!

**LustForLeith** · 26-04-2008 06:26 PM

So after one week, picked 5 horses and three won (suppose two were in the same race!). With odds of 9/2, 9/4 and 4/6 happy with that!

Hate Sunday racing, thankfuly nothing meets the criteria, so onto next week!

**LustForLeith** · 29-04-2008 11:04 AM

None that met the criteria yesterday but ...

2.10 Bath Miss Hollybell

Fingers crossed!

Beat! Oh well, not a god start to the week

**LustForLeith** · 30-04-2008 11:26 AM

Today throws up two seleciotns in the same race

2.10 Ascot - Baycat and Skid Solo.

Reverse forecast and singles!

Baycat won at 11/4!

A few 2yo races today but none that meet the criteria. Hopefully the horses that win will run again within 30 days!