vein
01-06-2009, 08:21 PM
That time of year again.....
Last year I posted a system for picking the winner of the Derby that I got from a book I have. It has picked out the winner 3 years on the trot (:wink:) now for me and historically it picks the winner back around 20 years.
System is below.....
1. Take the first 6 in the betting (if a two or more are 6th equal, include them all)
2. Last three form figures must be one of the following.
111, 121, 011, 11 (two runs in career), 112, 311, 21 (two runs in career), 211, 321, 101, 114, 122, 131.
Completing the second step should take a few out of the equation.
Next 5 steps are to help highlight the best horse(s) from the remaining selections.
3. Horse should have won at 7f or more as a two year old.
4. Potential winner is hardly ever beaten at 2 after winning maiden unless in group or listed event.
5. Excluding Group or Listed races the potential winner should have favouable form comments in their last two year old race, ie 'won easily' or 'soon clear', etc.
6. If they ran before first week in Aug as 2 year old most potential winners would have been placed in first 4 of a group race as a 2 year old.
7. If debut was after June as 2 year old a potential winner may have had their first win on either straight course at Newmarket or straight course at Newbury.
Strictly speaking this should be done on the morning of the race but at this time the below are the top six in the betting with their last 3 race positions.
Fame and Glory - 11/4 - 1 1 1
Sea the Stars - 3/1 - 1 1 1
Rip Van Winkle - 5/1 - 1 7 4
Black Bear Island 7/1 - 2 1 1
Gan Amhras - 7/1 - 1 2 3
Masterofthehorse - 11/1 - 3 11 2
So after step 2 Rip Van Winkle, Gan Ahmras and Masterofthehorse can be removed.
The remaining 3 all satisfy points 3, 4 and 5. Point 6 only applies to Sea the Stars who won a group race as a 2 year old. Point 7 would apply to Fame and Glory and Black Bear Island but neither meet it.
I'm leaning towards Sea the Stars due to the Group win as a 2yo but not conviced as it wont the Guineas and no horse has won both races since 1989 (I read tonight).
Anyway, I thought I would share the system with the rest of the board again and will try and come to a conclusion of who I'm going for on Saturday morning!!
Good Luck all :thumbsup:
Last years thread below....
http://www.hibs.net/message/showthread.php?t=119705
Last year I posted a system for picking the winner of the Derby that I got from a book I have. It has picked out the winner 3 years on the trot (:wink:) now for me and historically it picks the winner back around 20 years.
System is below.....
1. Take the first 6 in the betting (if a two or more are 6th equal, include them all)
2. Last three form figures must be one of the following.
111, 121, 011, 11 (two runs in career), 112, 311, 21 (two runs in career), 211, 321, 101, 114, 122, 131.
Completing the second step should take a few out of the equation.
Next 5 steps are to help highlight the best horse(s) from the remaining selections.
3. Horse should have won at 7f or more as a two year old.
4. Potential winner is hardly ever beaten at 2 after winning maiden unless in group or listed event.
5. Excluding Group or Listed races the potential winner should have favouable form comments in their last two year old race, ie 'won easily' or 'soon clear', etc.
6. If they ran before first week in Aug as 2 year old most potential winners would have been placed in first 4 of a group race as a 2 year old.
7. If debut was after June as 2 year old a potential winner may have had their first win on either straight course at Newmarket or straight course at Newbury.
Strictly speaking this should be done on the morning of the race but at this time the below are the top six in the betting with their last 3 race positions.
Fame and Glory - 11/4 - 1 1 1
Sea the Stars - 3/1 - 1 1 1
Rip Van Winkle - 5/1 - 1 7 4
Black Bear Island 7/1 - 2 1 1
Gan Amhras - 7/1 - 1 2 3
Masterofthehorse - 11/1 - 3 11 2
So after step 2 Rip Van Winkle, Gan Ahmras and Masterofthehorse can be removed.
The remaining 3 all satisfy points 3, 4 and 5. Point 6 only applies to Sea the Stars who won a group race as a 2 year old. Point 7 would apply to Fame and Glory and Black Bear Island but neither meet it.
I'm leaning towards Sea the Stars due to the Group win as a 2yo but not conviced as it wont the Guineas and no horse has won both races since 1989 (I read tonight).
Anyway, I thought I would share the system with the rest of the board again and will try and come to a conclusion of who I'm going for on Saturday morning!!
Good Luck all :thumbsup:
Last years thread below....
http://www.hibs.net/message/showthread.php?t=119705